Saturday Night Bubble Updates

11-12 Basketball19

In addition to sharing whatever you can/would in the comments below, you can click here for quite a few updated NCAA Tournament Bracket projects and bubble conversations.

Additionally, this website has a really great visual look at ‘group think’ as it relates to the NCAA Tournament.

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11-12 Basketball

19 Responses to Saturday Night Bubble Updates

  1. theTHRILL 03/10/2012 at 10:04 PM #

    According to the “group think” website, 76% of the prognosticators have us in the tournament. There’s still too much uncertainty for me to relax. I’m preparing myself for utter heartbreak. I’m quite good at it.

  2. choppack1 03/10/2012 at 10:10 PM #

    Statsheet has our rpi at 48. I thought it would be higher. Technically from an rpi standpoint we should pull for heels. ( blasphemy I know.)

    There is what one more bubble seed available

  3. StateFans 03/10/2012 at 10:18 PM #

    Lunardi and Palm – generally the two most accurate on an annual basis – have generally stated that we are off the bubble and don’t have much risk of being displaced.

  4. Old MacDonald 03/10/2012 at 10:18 PM #

    I think we are in for sure, but there are only 3 potential “at large stealers” left — we want New Mexico State and Long Beach State to win their finals tonight and for Xavier to win tomorrow. LBSU and X are likely at-large-stealers if they lose. Not that they would be slotted over us necessarily…just putting it out there.

  5. Old MacDonald 03/10/2012 at 10:25 PM #

    I love that visual presentation of the “groupthink” brackets — the seed groups with more than 4 teams are the play-ins?

  6. wolfie91 03/10/2012 at 10:39 PM #

    Choppack, I could be wrong, but I think the NCAA RPI is the one that matters. That site has us at 49. I don’t think that includes the UNC game though.

  7. choppack1 03/10/2012 at 10:42 PM #

    Wolfie- the formula remains the same. No reason it can’t be updated. I think statsheet uses their formula.

  8. CaptainCraptacular 03/10/2012 at 10:55 PM #

    Praying for a 12 seed please. Each of the ‘probable’ 5 seeds looks like a game we can win. Beware the hungry underdog.

  10. choppack1 03/10/2012 at 11:25 PM #

    That actually sounds terrible and contradictory to basing tourney on entire season.

  11. wufpup76 03/11/2012 at 3:55 AM #

    Wow, the teams were already picked by Saturday? This is very scary.

    Gottlieb and Dakich were just on College Basketball Live saying we shouldn’t be in over Drexel and Iona. Oh boy.

    I don’t mind Drexel and Iona being in, but I do not believe it should be at our expense. Miss St. and Seton Hall on the other hand? Sure.

  12. VEHEMYTH 03/11/2012 at 4:25 AM #

    Well if they want to say we are the last team in just schedule us as a 16 seed and have us play #1 seed UNC in the first round… I would go for that. After our game yesterday, I think Lo and Calvin would take it as well.

    I just hope we get out of the play in game, as long as we are invited I guess we can’t complain. But I would like the team to get a little rest this week if possible.

  13. PackerInRussia 03/11/2012 at 5:35 AM #

    ^I know that many are saying that the UVA game was enough, but the one bad thing about losing to UNC regarding the NCAAT is that it may have pulled us out of the play-in round and allowed for more rest. Of course it would have meant one more day of playing as well, so who knows what’s best in the long run. Of course if they somehow don’t make it, then we’ll all regret the loss to UNC even more

  14. GAWolf 03/11/2012 at 7:29 AM #

    Henson comes back and we’d be better off playing most any team over UNC in the tournament. I get what you’re saying from an emotional perspective but I’ll take a two seed all day.

  15. wolfonthehill 03/11/2012 at 8:50 AM #

    No one in the field really terrifies me til you get up to 2-seeds.

    But we better be in…

  16. BJD95 03/11/2012 at 9:32 AM #

    Looking at the bracketology list, there’s no way we escape the “First Four” nor get bounced completely. So, screw it, I will pull for the Bonnies to make sure both Seton Hall and Mississippi State miss the dance.

    First four will be USF, State, Drexel or Iona, and ???

  17. BJD95 03/11/2012 at 9:47 AM #

    I think it would be super cool to play Iona in the prelims, if only to be able to rekindle memories of V’s “Jim Valvano, I own a college” joke.

  18. Texpack 03/11/2012 at 10:10 AM #

    It was interesting to hear Dakich lobby in favor of Drexel over State based on the fact that we have the same number of Top 50 wins as Drexel. He didn’t include that fact about Drexel of course but he did rag on us for 1 Top 50 win.

    We can whip any of the potential First Four opponents.

  19. Tau837 03/11/2012 at 11:14 AM #

    State doesn’t officially have a top 50 win any more. Per NCAA RPI rankings today (http://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/rpi/), Texas dropped to 52.

    State is 0-5 vs. top 4 RPI teams (Syracuse, UNC, Duke)
    State is 0-8 vs. top 24 RPI teams (Syracuse, UNC, Duke, Indiana, FSU, Vanderbilt)
    State is thus obviously 0-8 vs. top 50 RPI teams
    State is 7-2 vs. top 51-100 RPI teams (Texas, Virginia, Miami, St. Bonaventure, Princeton, Stanford, UNC-A)
    State is 15-2 vs. top 101+ RPI teams

    Bottom line, 0-8 vs. top 50 teams, 22-4 vs. other teams. Big negative on the resume.

    9-6 in road/neutral games could help, not sure how much that is weighed by the committee.

    5-5 in last 10 games isn’t great. Don’t think this is emphasized as much as it used to be by the committee.

    Best positive is SOS, but I’m not sure how much SOS should matter for a team that loses all of its games against top 50 opponents… if you lose all the tough games, how much of a positive can it be that you scheduled them?

    Aside from that, we have to hope being viewed as the 4th best team in the ACC along with 22 overall wins and 11 ACC wins carries the day.

    I’m a lot less optimistic than some. The resume just isn’t compelling enough.

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