Bubblicious Bracketology (2/13/12) - StateFans Nation StateFans Nation

Well it’s the middle of February and we’re still talking about NC State getting into the NCAAT (without having to win the ACCT). It’s nice to still be looking at it even if State is squarely on the bubble right now, though they have plenty of chances to earn their spot in the Big Dance.

Let’s take a look at where NC State currently is and compare them not only to UVA & Miami but to the entire country and how they stack up against other teams on the Bubble and what they likely have to do to not be sweating on Selection Sunday. We’ll update this each week and more as we get closer.

Here are the big 3 Bracketology discussions:

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has NC State in one of the play-in games as a 13 seed as of Monday 2/13.

CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm has NC State in one of the play-in games as a 12 seed as of Friday 2/10.

NCAA Tournament “Dance Card” has NC State in a much better position for an At-Large Bid. Ranking them at #39, a full 12 spots before the bubble bursting, with a 60.78% of receiving a bid.

Per our discussion below I’m going to use CBSSports.com RPI and SOS numbers.

Here are a couple of assumptions I’m going to use. Looking back over the last several years no major conference team with a RPI 1-30 has been left out and no major conference team with a RPI above 69 has made it.

So we’ll go ahead and say everyone with and RPI 1-30 is a lock, though I have reservations about a couple of them…especially Colorado State.

2012-NCAAT-RPI-1-30-2-13

Now we’ll look at the remaining teams up to RPI 69 and highlight the teams outside of the RPI top 30 who are “expected” to get their conferences automatic bid.

(Blue = conference automatic bid, Yellow = at large bid, Red = outside the bubble)

2012-NCAAT-RPI-31-69+-2-13

If you take the top 30 + the 20 conference automatic bids that are outside the top 30 = 18 at large bubble bids up for grabs.

If you look at ONLY THE RPI as to qualification you see NC State is third to last In and deserves the play in game and seed both ESPN and CBS are predicting. Which means they have no margin for error. If any of the “20 automatic” conferences have a team not expected to make the NCAAT get their invitation then it only hurts NC State. Though I have a hard time seeing any of the 4 automatic teams above State getting in ahead of State if said team(s) don’t get their automatic bid.

If you also look closer you’ll see that there is one glaring point that separates NC State from those above them…lack of RPI Top 25 wins. They have 3 chances over the next week to get at least one and really their only guaranteed chances since meeting any of them in the ACCT is anything from a given.

NC State’s RPI will increase just by playing the teams remaining on it’s schedule but can almost punch their ticket to the Big Dance simply by upsetting either Duke, FSU, or UNC.

So now you have a better idea who you not only need to be cheering for but also against…nationwide.

26 Responses to Bubblicious Bracketology (2/13/12)

61Packer 02/15/2012 at 11:07 PM #

@HPWolf:

I’m not re-writing history when it comes to Sendek. I sat through many more NIT games in the Coliseum and ESA than I care to remember. As far as Herb and the NCAA, the primary reason we got in most of those times was because the ACC was much stronger than it is now and we rode the coattails. There was only one Wolfpack team under Herb that came even close to its potential, and in the Sweet 16, that team laid a rotten egg against Wisconsin. The other teams bombed out fairly quickly.

I don’t remember which seasons Herb took State to the Dance, but I don’t remember him going in that most miserable final season. Maybe he did, but again, most of those teams were mediocre and the only two decent ones bombed out in the ACC finals vs Duke (29 in one final and a double-digit loss in the other after leading by 15 with 9 minutes to go). It wasn’t about whether or not I liked Herb, but rather what kind of a coach he was. I haven’t forgotten the Vanderbilt and Cal games in the Dance. He was and still is a woefully mediocre coach, and if anything, he’s worse than ever now. The Pac-12 may be at its worst ever, and look where Herb’s Sun Devils are this season.

Where Herb took our program was to the edge of the abyss, and the next coach took us over the edge and into a free-fall for 5 miserable seasons. We’ve got a new staff now that’s trying to get us out of this hole, but but it may be a long, uphill climb to the bottom, so to speak, before we see substantial progress.

And this is primarily why I do not want to start another run into the NIT in 2012. The NIT, for NCSU, is no longer progress. It’s a return to those chilling days of yesteryear. Those of you who think otherwise just don’t get it.