ESPN’s Schlabach – 2012 Wolfpack in Top 25

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After Alabama’s dominating win over LSU Monday night, college football withdrawal had already begun. Thus, I began reading Mark Schlabach’s Way Too Early Top 25 for the 2012 season. As I finished the Top 15 without seeing Clemson, I started hoping to see NC State somewhere. Lo and behold:

24. NC State Wolfpack: After a 2-3 start, in which Wolfpack coach Tom O’Brien was criticized for turning quarterback Russell Wilson loose, NC State rallied to win six of its last eight games, including a 31-24 victory over Louisville in the Belk Bowl. Quarterback Mike Glennon ended up being a more-than-capable replacement for Wilson, throwing for 3,054 yards with 31 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He’ll be without three of his top four receivers in 2012, with wideouts T.J. Graham and Jay Smith and tight end George Bryan each departing. Seven defensive starters are expected back, but the Pack will have to rebuild the defensive line and linebacker corps. The secondary should return intact, including ball-hawking cornerback David Amerson. NC State opens the ’12 season against Tennessee in one of the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game matchups and plays nonconference games against Connecticut (road) and FCS foes South Alabama (home) and The Citadel (home).

Now, that’s not to say that the Pack is the only Atlantic Division team in the rankings. But there are heavy caveats for both Florida State (#8 – “We’re taking the bait on the Seminoles again, even after they failed to live up to very high aspirations with a 9-4 finish in 2011.”) and Clemson (#22 – “The Tigers also must replace four starting offensive linemen, and there isn’t a lot of depth in the trenches.”). I don’t know about you, but if I were a Tigger fan, there’s not a sentence that could possibly make me more nervous. If your OL is crap, your team is crap. Period, full stop. So, that turns Clemson into a very beatable foe, even in Death Valley. Plus, Dabo Swinney is still their head coach. Yes, he got significant recognition for their 2011 season…but they still did lots of Clemson-y things. Other than having VPI’s number, they really didn’t show me that much. I certainly might be wrong, but not drinking a drop of the Dabo Kool-Aid.

So, that leaves perenially disappointing Florida State, who has to come to Raleigh. Win that game too, and it’s hard to see how State doesn’t win the Atlantic Division. Of course it’s not a lead pipe cinch – but anytime you can realistically see the division coming down to a single home game…you have to feel pretty good. What more can you ask for? And for the record, I’m only marginally more impressed by Jimbo Fisher than Dabo. Even with his shortcomings, I would take Tom O’Brien on gameday (against the likes of Dabo and Jimbo) any day of the week (hopefully Thursday night, at least against the Noles).

Other interesting rankings – VPI at #18, Louisville (and the apparently indestructible Teddy Bridgewater) at #25, and UNC…nowhere to be found. Ah, that warms my cold, black heart. May Hole football schadenfreude season never end.

ESPN’s ACC correspondent Heather Dinich (while sadly falling under FSU’s voodoo spell) heartily seconds the Pack’s inclusion in the Top 25:

This is the ACC. It’s a November race. And Schlabach was spot-on to include NC State in his list. With FSU and Clemson in the same division, it won’t be easy for the Pack to get to Charlotte, but Mike Glennon could be a special quarterback this year. The difference in Tom O’Brien’s team when it’s healthy is remarkable. He’s a good coach, and he can get them there. Meet your way-too-early darkhorse prediction: No. 24 NC State.

Time will tell. But it’s good to have realistic hope again.

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

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31 Responses to ESPN’s Schlabach – 2012 Wolfpack in Top 25

  1. lawful 01/11/2012 at 11:16 AM #

    You may not be drinking Clemson’s Kool-Aid, but you’re clearly drinking somebody’s.

  2. Codebrown 01/11/2012 at 11:31 AM #

    I’ve had this Kool-Aid before and it ended with us firing a clown yapping about facilities.

  3. coach13 01/11/2012 at 12:01 PM #

    Dabo, Jimbo….sounds like a Jerry Clower story.

  4. Plz2BStateFan 01/11/2012 at 12:22 PM #

    I havent literally had koolaid, or for that matter grape drank, in a very long time. And my teeth thank me.

    Apple a day kids, eat that apple.

  5. blpack 01/11/2012 at 12:47 PM #

    It is way too early, but I like this. We should be improved next season and it is time we time the division. We can go to the Orange as well as anyone, hopefully not embarrass ourselves, but we’d be there.

  6. 61Packer 01/11/2012 at 12:52 PM #

    He must be talking about the 2012 Wolfpack basketball team.

  7. tuckerdorm1983 01/11/2012 at 12:56 PM #

    uncle versey told me that one time Clovis Ledbetter thought he was a log truck. Maybe Dabo and Jimbo could ride in it. LAWSSS HAVE MERCY!!!! I TELLING YOU!!!

  8. Bowlpack 01/11/2012 at 1:14 PM #

    The potential for us to be a really good team exists, but by no means will it realistically come down to one game. There is a mountain that we must climb first. We have to replace our receiving corps – again. Remember how long it took for Glennon to get a rhythm with those guys. We have to find replacements for Manning and Cole as well as a significant reload on the DL. Fortunately (or optimistically) the adversity we faced due to injury this season put some guys in a position to see some playing time. That doesn’t mean that you can just plug new guys in to fill what turned out to be some pretty big shoes, but that the learning curve is reduced. We also have to contend with the fact that there are 2 FCS teams on our schedule again which forces us to win X amount of games to even be considered for a bowl. If we beat a down Tennessee team in Atlanta then I think you may be on to something, but until then I wouldn’t say that we’re better than Clemson or VA Tech…btw – have you seen the recruiting classes they’re bringing in versus ours?

  9. Six Pack 01/11/2012 at 1:16 PM #

    How will we go to Charlotte after losing to Maryland and Clemson? O’Brien has yet to win a road division game, so what makes you think he magically starts next year? If he could not end the streak at BC last year, I’m convinced he never will.

  10. baxter 01/11/2012 at 1:26 PM #

    Yeah he only ended a 7 year drought against Clemson and made it 5 years over UNC. Guy will never overcome a random stat like losing difficult games on the road. There is a reason its called home field advantage (you know, like, because we are 11-2 at home the last two seasons – it ain’t easy to win on the road)

  11. Alpha Wolf 01/11/2012 at 1:29 PM #

    Two of the guys on ESPN’s college football show had Clemson #5 yesteday. As they say, I about fell out the boat. This is the defense that allowed as many offensive touchdowns in 45 minutes of football as Alabama’s did ALL YEAR.

    Granted, the Tide’s D is possibly the best ever (only the 1991 Miami team can compare) but I can’t see how anyone can love Clemson in the middle of the top 10 after that inept display of football in the Orange Bowl. They certainly do not belong in any preseason national title consideration, which is where they have them now.

    As for State, I will go with 8-4 again, before we even play a down. That’s our level with O’Brien and we’ll either go 9-3 or 7-5 but not any worse and not any better.

  12. wolfbuff 01/11/2012 at 1:29 PM #

    Maybe TOB’s caustic retort to that dimwitted sideline reporter after the Belk Bowl got the media thinking! Maybe TOB knew what he was doing – besides brushing off an ill-considered question. To be honest, I’d rather us NOT be ranked before the season. As much optimism as there is (and I have it too) there are still too many questions, especially on the defense. And if we lose the TN game, we won’t get another vote all year. As for the Atlantic Division next year, it seems from this far off view to be very winnable. But there’s no telling what R-Fr Klimpsun and Fla St. may pull out of nowhere. Wake is an annual nemesis; can’t look past them ever. And the streak against the cheaters has to end sometime, though I don’t think it will be next year.

  13. baxter 01/11/2012 at 1:31 PM #

    Bowlpack – USA counts toward bowl eligibility so winning the 2 FCS games is worth 2 wins towards a bowl. USA has a special status w/ the NCAA this upcoming year.

    As far as replacing the WRs – Glennon has been throwing at Palmer and Underwood in practice for a season, as well as Payton, Flowers and Morgan in the fall and bowl practices. Add another spring and fall camp, not to mention the countless 7 v 7s the players do on their own leave me not worried w/ receiver like last year. Throw in Asa Watson and Mario Carter and you have pretty deep pass threat all around (plus Glennon is running the show now, just look at his last 3 games – 823 yards, 11 TDs, 2 Picks, 1 rushing TD – I like what I see)

  14. Prowling Woofie 01/11/2012 at 1:55 PM #

    Plus Moose and Washington out of the backfield… Receivers will be fine.

  15. BJD95 01/11/2012 at 2:05 PM #

    Palmer and Underwood both have the chance to be great. I agree that’s a big X factor, after LB and DL (which have to be anyone’s #1 and #2, respectively).

    I don’t put much stock in the quirky stat about TOB’s road record against Atlantic vs. Coastal foes. There’s just no logical explanation, so I have to believe it’s a fluke. To the extent it’s in our guys’ heads, then breaking the turtle hex against Maryland in such dramatic fashion has to be a huge confidence boost in eradicating the mental block.

    I agree with Alpha that we are most likely an 8 or 9 win team. But a 9-3 record with wins against Clemson and FSU likely equals Atlantic Division championship. I don’t see either squad being likely to run the table otherwise, and I’m almost certain that one of our 3 losses will be at UConn. Any even casual student of NC State football has to see that one coming.

    I think the difference between 8-4 and 9-3 will be whether we beat FSU. Which I’m betting will be a late season “spotlight” game, and that’s why I think the division could come down to that one game.

    Then again, we’re just blathering about it at this point. No guarantees, I just see this as a plausible scenario. Nothing more, nothing less.

    I do think we’ll beat Clemson, as Tenuta’s schemes will eviscerate any team with a putrid OL. I worry more about whoever we play the week after Clemson.

  16. Bowlpack 01/11/2012 at 2:08 PM #

    I’ll give it to you that the WR’s may be better and frankly, I had forgotten about Palmer and Payton as big play threats. I love Moose out of the backfield as well as Washington. Flowers and Morgan are question marks because we don’t know anything about them other than that they were decent in high school and Underwood does have some good experience with lots of upside.

    I think we’ve done a much better job of recruiting in the DL and the drop off won’t be as bad, but the question looming it’s ugly head over this program’s success is the gaping hole at LB. How did we perform without Irving two years ago and then with him in the lineup? What about when Manning was out this year versus having him in the lineup? With our blitz heavy packages (which I love BTW – thanks Tenuta), we have to have LBs that can make the right call to pressure or stay home and gap fill. Do we have that at this time? I’m not so sure. Spring practice is going to be huge this year. I sure do hope that Tenuta can coach them up…

  17. Packfan28 01/11/2012 at 2:31 PM #

    I’m expecting big things from Hakeem Flowers next season. And from what I’ve read, so does the coach. Heck, his name even sounds like a receiver’s name.

  18. wufpup76 01/11/2012 at 3:07 PM #

    I think Bowlpack sums it up nicely in their first post.

    That said, it’s time to start “meeting/exceeding” expectations around here rather than just hoping to be ranked by someone.

  19. WolfBlood 01/11/2012 at 3:26 PM #

    ^^^ AMEN.

  20. 61Packer 01/11/2012 at 5:09 PM #

    The 2012 State football team isn’t going to suddenly come out of nowhere like the 1967 team did.

    It’s very unlikely the Wolfpack will be a pre-season Top 25 team next football season. We weren’t good this past year, and we’re losing some key players. Mike Glennon isn’t likely to be on any NFL team’s radar right now. And with the schedule we have next season, it’s unlikely enough opportunities will come along to move up. A bad loss in Atlanta to Tennessee would doom us to poll exclusion for most of the season, but a win wouldn’t do much good since the Vols have stunk lately.

    I look forward to the tailgates and simply hope we can keep the UNC streak going and that we end up in a bowl somewhere where it’s warm or back in Atlanta on New Year’s Eve.

  21. Lunatic Fringe 01/11/2012 at 5:29 PM #

    Associate Head Coach Jon Tenuta will make $400K next year. Worth every dime…

    http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/01/11/2917364/jon-tenuta-promoted-to-nc-states.html

  22. BJD95 01/11/2012 at 5:38 PM #

    In college football, and especially in the ACC, it doesn’t take that much to elevate from “pretty good” to “conference title contender.” And we have been pretty good the last two years. The difference in the two was primarily consistency – the 2011 Pack was remarkably schizo.

    Here’s what I think would help us make that crucial leap in 2012:

    1) Fewer distractions. More so than the injuries, in my view, the dark cloud from day one was the amount of silly off field controversy. Despite BOTH Russell Wilson and TOB handling it as well as could reasonably be expected…the media wouldn’t let it go (and I’ve heard that DY wouldn’t either, which in my view is on par with “the pity party letter” in things that make me uber-skeptical about her). None of that will be present in 2012.

    2) Confidence. After leading the Pack to a beatdown of Top 10 Clemson, the historic comeback against Maryland, and a very solid bowl victory – Glennon will be the unquestioned leader in camp and all season. He will be more confident in his own abilities, as will his teammates. That’s huge.

    3) Offensive Line. It took a little longer than I expected, but the OL came together nicely last year and looked more like the ones TOB became famous for at BC. This group should be at its very best, personnel and experience wise, in 2012. Adding a legitimate rushing threat in Moose, and you should see elite pass protection.

  23. graywolf 01/11/2012 at 5:41 PM #

    Well, there’s a jinx if i ever saw one…………often better to be under the radar and ready to pound on the opposition than get the big head and have the opposition pound on you.

  24. Gene 01/11/2012 at 5:58 PM #

    “after LB and DL (which have to be anyone’s #1 and #2, respectively). ”

    I’m not sweating bullets over the D-line. I think Slay, Norman and even Cato-Bishop looked pretty solid last year and should be able to fill in for Sweezy, Kuhn and Reiskamp.

    We may be a bit lighter at DT, but I think we have had enough guys getting minutes last year that the drop off shouldn’t be as steep as people fear.

    Shorter: That’s the point of college recruiting, last years back-ups become this years starters and you don’t miss a beat.

    LB is a different issue. I’m keeping my fingers crossed three new starters can step up and deliver.

  25. Pack Mentality 01/11/2012 at 6:41 PM #

    Weren’t we a lock to win 10 games this year?

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