ACC Basketball Predictions

11-12 Basketball36

An evolving theme on our message forums over the last couple of weeks has been the notion that this NC State Basketball team may be better positioned for a Top 5 finish in the Atlantic Coast Conference and a position on the proverbial NCAA Tournament bubble than was previously thought.

Last Friday, we posted these interesting pre-season comments that we would encourage you to review (since you probably missed the entry). Today, we share this link to The ACC Sports Journal’s preseason ACC rankings where the expectations of NC State’s upcoming season have improved since last year.

Each year, it is easiest to discuss the ACC through the lens of different ‘tiers’, and this season is no different. The conference is separated with Tier One consisting of North Carolina, Duke and Florida State. One of the interesting things about this season is that the rest of the tiers appear to be somewhat of a jumbled mess. Other than consensus that Wake Forest and Boston College should be pulling up the rear, it is hard to separate the other seven teams in the league. ACCSJ is putting both Maryland and Georgia Tech in the bottom tier as teams with several holes to fill, but after twenty years of consistency from College Park, I have a very hard time ever writing off the Terps (new coach or old coach).

Ultimately, ACCSJ calls N.C. State, Virginia, Clemson, Miami and Virginia Tech ‘NCAA Tournament Hopefuls’ with ‘enough pieces in place to have successful years.’

4) N.C. State
I know, I know. This seems like too high of a prediction for the Wolfpack. In part, my rationale for this prediction is the weakness of the ACC after the top three. Also, I think the Pack greatly underachieved under Sidney Lowe, and will make big strides under Mark Gottfried.

Gottfried is a proven college coach who Iwill have a big impact on the way this team plays. State has talented players, but they also have question marks. Can Gottfried motivate C.J. Leslie to become the dominate player he is capable of being. I think so. Can Lorenzo Brown be a solid point guard? Look for Richard Howell to have a breakout year.

One thing that I think most prognosticators have not recognized yet is that the Wolfpack’s depth goes a solid 8 or 9 deep this year. The additions of Alex Johnson and Thomas de Theay along with the obviously improvement of Deshawn Painter and Jordan Vandenberg may significantly change the dynamic of this team’s 2011-2012 prospects.

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11-12 Basketball

36 Responses to ACC Basketball Predictions

  1. primacyone 11/15/2011 at 10:15 AM #

    The game Wednesday (TOMORROW) against Princeton is on ESPNU.

    Could we get the word out to show up if at all possible. If you can’t make it, try to get someone, anyone, in your seats.

  2. primacyone 11/15/2011 at 10:22 AM #

    Having said that, I have no clue where we may end up in the ACC. Could be anyone’s game. I havn’t a clue on what Clemson, Virginia, Virgina Tech will look like. I’m going to say we finish 6th with some tough loses along the way and some some solid signs of performance improvement.

    One thing I truly beleieve, is that The ACC has a great set of outstanding coaches now, and the next couple of years could offer some outstanding in game basketball action.

  3. StateFans 11/15/2011 at 10:47 AM #

    The one GOOD thing that we have going for us is our ACC schedule. After having one of the toughest league schedules almost every single year since the imbalanced schedule was introduced —- this year works out for us where we play more games against the really bad teams and less games against the really good teams.

    ^This may be part of the reason why we over-scheduled outside of league play. If we just win our fair share of games, our RPI should still be pretty well positioned because of the strong OOC schedule (Syracuse, Stanford, Vanderbilt, maybe Texas, others).

  4. Pack Mentality 11/15/2011 at 10:52 AM #

    One thing that needs to be established is that a losing record in ACC play is never acceptable. I am hoping for 8-8 or better. Until I actually see the team play against tough competition I can’t say if I expect that or not, but all the signs are pointing towards a total attitude adjustment of the whole program who will actually WORK to improve.

  5. primacyone 11/15/2011 at 10:59 AM #

    Anxious to see what we look like tomorrow night. We looked like a #4 ACC team on Sunday

    In addition to the easier conference schedule, I completly agree with your greater depth synopis. The top 3 teams have got that one or two players that can take over a play when needed, not sure we have that but if our talent can play hard and together we’ve got a shot at 4th. We’ve got to win the close games and we’ve got to win them on the road.

  6. WolfBlood 11/15/2011 at 11:02 AM #

    I was disappointed to see so many empty seats the other night in the lower level season ticket holders sections. If you cant go, at least give your tickets away.

  7. imawolf 11/15/2011 at 11:03 AM #

    Having watched this team against Morehead State, on ESPN 3, I am completely impressed with the unselfish team first play of these kids. They are playing like an ACC team. Finally……. They are movnig, they are passing and they are running and they are playing DEFENSE. I have a good feeling about this team and the new coaching staff.

  8. redcanine 11/15/2011 at 11:26 AM #

    FSU may not be the third best team. Yes, they can play D, but how will they score points this year without Singleton and that PG?

    My biggest concern with State is foul trouble. It’s tough to run when the other team is shooting free throws. We can play with most every team in the ACC as long as we’re not giving them easy points. We will have a winning conference record.

  9. TheAliasTroll 11/15/2011 at 11:28 AM #

    With only two games played to base predictions off of makes it tough. That said, I’m trending towards predicting us as an NCAA tourney team. There absolutely will be bumps in the road though, which is something I’ve got to keep reminding myself of.

    As for Princeton, they lost by two last year vs. Kentucky in the NCAA tourney so they’re a formidable opponent. I’m not sure how good they’re supposed to be this season (as they lost by 15 to Wagner on Saturday). We will definitely be favored, but Princeton is going to play their style of basketball which can be a bitch if they’re making their shots, so it will be interesting to see how we respond.

  10. bigwolfpacker 11/15/2011 at 11:43 AM #

    As some have stated above, my reason for predicting a higher finish is our easier than most conference schedule. The opposite has been true for the past few years and a reason we finished lower. Id like to see divisions in bball so that at least you would have a balanced schedule within your division.

  11. PackMan97 11/15/2011 at 11:45 AM #

    Best season in 20 years that’s my prediction. Anywhere from 21-10 to 23-8 with an ACC record of somewhere between 9-7 and 11-5. This could be a fun year 🙂

  12. nav 11/15/2011 at 11:54 AM #

    Has anyone heard a status update on De Thaey?

  13. Wufpacker 11/15/2011 at 12:00 PM #

    I’ve been pleased with what we’ve seen thus far, but 11-5 conference records are a bit of stretch just yet, prediction wise. Not saying it couldn’t happen, just that it seems a bit premature just yet. Maybe we should wait and see how well prepared we are for Princeton tomorrow, as well as how well we execute against them, before we go predicting a six game turnaround in conference.

    Remember, eight of those games will still be on the road.

  14. tractor57 11/15/2011 at 12:04 PM #

    Based on what I’ve seen both on and off the court to date I expect a decent conference showing – decent being a positive W-L record in conference. Maybe a bit better if things fall properly. At any rate if the team shows the same attitude as they have shown in the first two games I will like watching them play much more than last year’s version.

  15. DC_wolf 11/15/2011 at 12:05 PM #

    Key stat: Rebounds NCSU 50 – UNCA 36; NCSU 34 – M.S. 23. I know the competition are not BCS-ers but considering we were missing a 6′ 8″ starter, not bad, and may be worth tracking over the opening half of the season.

  16. BJD95 11/15/2011 at 12:06 PM #

    Again, I would caution against being overexcited about this season, or from making any long-term judgments either way.

    The new players coming in next year will change the mix dramatically. It will be a different skill set entirely to steer the ship toward success.

    That is, we could be awful this year, and still be quite good the next. We could just as easily overachieve this year, then underachieve the next.

    Evaluate next year, and especially years 3 and 4 (the critical seasons). Just enjoy the games this year without projecting so much.

    I do look forward to at least not being embarrassed that the on-court product bears the name of my alma mater. And not being the worst-coached team night in and night out.

    I also reiterate my point from years past – almost any player with ANY level of athleticism can be an adequate defender. It just requires effort, positioning, and proper motivation.

  17. PoppaJohn 11/15/2011 at 12:10 PM #

    Kenpom says 17-13 & 7-9. And that prediction includes us losing the last 7 regular season games. If Gott is any good, he will not let that happen. G-Tech, Clemson, V-Tech and Miami are in that stretch. There has got to be a win or two there.

    But, the bottom line is we haven’t seen squat yet. They’ve looked good against lesser competition, but everyone does. Plus we are missing two players, one of which could disrupt the chemistry in a big way if not well coached. Taking plays off does not jive with the up tempo pace.

    This week should give us a glimmer of what to expect. Two challenging opponents, let’s see them deal with adversity. And lets see how Calvin fits in on Saturday.

  18. 61Packer 11/15/2011 at 1:18 PM #

    From what I’ve seen at this point, this coaching staff is the real deal. They’ve taken a lathargic, lazy, undisciplined and individualistic group of players so far and have made them into an unselfish team that is making the most with what they have. Less 3 attempts and more rebounds from the big men, players cut and move constantly, nobody tries to showboat with dunks but rather is taking the easy layup, and this team looks to run whenever it can, generally outhustling the opposition so far.

    Another thing I’ve noticed is that I’m yet to see the wholesale substitution pattern I saw under the last staff, where players came and went into the game in bunches, which disrupted the offensive flow of the game. It’s been one sub at a time and at the right time. And nobody has disappeared on the bench, a hallmark of the Lowe and especially the Sendek years.

    Can the staff transform Leslie into a team player. That remains to be see, but I’d say yes. I’m not sure what the numbers will be by midseason, but I’d go one step beyond BJD95 and say that the Pack won’t be an easy out for anyone, even the ones in Blue.

    And God bless this staff or whoever (AD?) for putting “STATE” back on the front of the jerseys.

  19. Texpack 11/15/2011 at 1:44 PM #

    Ball movement and movement without the ball are much improved. I’m not sure Painter and Howell will look this good against ACC competition. I hope TDT can get cleared soon. He needs on court time to adjust to the American game before we hit the really tough part of the OOC schedule.

    Calvin is the other wild card. He’s the TA McClendon of basketball.

  20. PackMan97 11/15/2011 at 2:09 PM #

    Screw not getting excited and screw keeping expectations in check. I can guarandangtee you that our staff and team aren’t keeping their effort in check. Their goal is to win the ACC and an NCAA title and they are pushing themselves as much as they can toward that goal. Sure, it isn’t all going to happen at once (even if it ever does) but they don’t need the bigotry of low expectations. This team will be giving it their all for us this season and they deserve our faith that they will win the freakin games!

    Heck, maybe we’ll go 31-0 and shock the world 😉

  21. TruthBKnown Returns 11/15/2011 at 2:59 PM #

    ^Nothing wrong with that kind of optimism, PackMan!

    As long as you’re not *too* disappointed if it doesn’t happen!

    Before the UNC-A game, some people were saying how we could lose that game. And UNC-A is a good team, an NCAA tournament team, stuff like that. I suddenly got the same sort of optimism that PackMan97 is describing, and said we should beat a UNC-A team by 20. I wasn’t “predicting” that bigga win, but it was more about our attitude. I’m tired of a fan base that no longer thinks we SHOULD pound certain teams. We should, and we won that game without any problem, like we should. I didn’t mean any disrespect to UNC-A, but it’s high time that we got our attitudes back. You don’t hear the HOLES making excuses for if and when they lose to their next opponent. Of course you’re not going to win every game, but our attitude going into every game needs to be that we are GOING to win this game. I don’t care what the rankings say.

    Let’s get some attitude back. Maybe when the fans have some swagger, so will the team!

  22. Shadow722 11/15/2011 at 3:07 PM #

    The attitude that both the team and the fans should have is: “We are going to play to win every game!!!”

    We may not “win” every game we play, but they should be exhausted from trying and playing hard. And the fans should be horse from yelling, in support of their efforts.

    Winning will only come from hard work, and so far this team is working hard AS A TEAM……

  23. Wufpacker 11/15/2011 at 3:12 PM #

    I think Mr. Amato proved that swagger doesn’t win dick. Play with good fundamentals, play together as a team, and continue to do that against stronger competition and especially once Calvin returns, and maybe I’ll start to drink the kool aid.

  24. FunPack 11/15/2011 at 3:58 PM #

    BJD95: “Just enjoy the games this year without projecting so much.

    I do look forward to at least not being embarrassed that the on-court product bears the name of my alma mater. And not being the worst-coached team night in and night out.”

    Ding ding ding!

  25. PackMan97 11/15/2011 at 3:59 PM #

    Wufpacker, IIRC Amato’s swagger got us top 15 ranking, a heckuva fun squad to watch, wins over FSU, a Gator Bowl victory over Notre Dame, a school record for victories among other things. Amato’s problem was in sustaining success, not in having it. Hmm…didn’t Gottfried take over at his Alma Mater, push them to heights not previously seen and flame out after being unable to sustain?

    Regardless, it’s too late for me. I’ve drunken the kool aid, let’s just hope it’s the huge talking pitcher kind and not the Jonestown kind 🙂 I’m all in. I’m having too much fun not to let loose. You guys can be the negative nellies and debbie downers that hold everyone else in check!

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