The State of State Football (Pre-October)

'11 Football ACC & Other NC State122

“They had more energy than we did. You can’t do that, especially on the road in a conference game.” -TOB’s post-game comments after the Wake game.

After the loses to Wake Forest and Cincinnati, the Wolfpack’s only two D1A games this season, a lot of people are left look at Tom O’Brien for encouragement and signs of life, especially before meeting up with Georgia Tech on October 1.  Showing the fanbase something to get excited over has never been Tom’s strong point and now that affect is starting to seep into the roster and the fanbase.  Let’s review where we are against D1A opponents (and stay tuned for the “NC State Football By The Numbers” segment that WV Wolf posts weekly).  Maybe we can look at where we are and figure out what to expect from here.

Where we currently stand.

First, some combined stats from our two D1A match-ups…

NC State 2011 Craptacular! 34-27 Loss 44-14 Loss D1A Totals
NCSU @WF NCSU @Cincy NCSU Opp.
1st Downs
 19 22 13 24 32 46
Total Yards 424 438 322 503 746 941
Passing 315 337 348 263 663 600
Comp-Att
 24 41 23 36 28 40 25 34 52 81 48 70
Yards per pass
 7.7 9.4 8.7 7.7 8.2 8.55
Rushing 109 101 -26 240 83 341
Rushing Attempts
 26 34 22 46 48 80
Yards per rush
 4.2 3 -1.2 5.2 1.5 4.1
Penalties 4 33 4 42 6 40 3 35 10 73 7 77
Turnovers 1 1 3 1 4 2
Fumbles Lost
 0 0 1 0 1 0
Interceptions thrown
 1 1 2 1 3 2
Possession 29:35:00 30:25:00 26:04:00 33:56:00 55:39:00 64:21:00

A few other factoids from the stats:
– Glennon is achieving a 64% completion rate.  Our opponents are completing 69%.  Consider that both Wake and Cincy’s QBs are “experienced”.  Also note that he is only completing 1 foot LESS per attempt than his competition.  Guys, Glennon is good.

– NC State out-threw both of their opponents, but is getting crushed in rushing offense (83 vs 341 yards).  Some of this stat includes the terrible offensive line which lead to multiple sacks, including one for -14 yards last night. 

– We are averaging 1.5 yards per rush.  Some of this is due to the sacks being averaged into the 83-yard statistic, but from looking at the game, it’s obvious that the predictable play-calling is part of the blame.  According to ESPN, last night’s rushing performance marks the worst in the entire ACC since 2001.

– On 1st and 10 situations, Bible called a rush up the middle 3 out of 4 times against Cincy in the first quarter for total yardage of -1 yard. 

-Glennon was not sacked once during the Wake Forest game, but suffered 6 sacks last night against Cincy.

Injuries, Personnel And Depth

NC State obviously has issues with injuries.  The question is, can the problems experienced by our team, primarily on defense, be explained by injuries?

Before last night, NC State had the following injuries: Mustafa Greene, HB; Terrell Manning, LB; J.R. Sweezy, DT; Thomas Teal, DT; Andrew Wallace, OG. During the game last night, Brian Slay was also taken out of the game as well as AJ Ferguson, who later returned.  That leaves… ummm… crap.

Things got to the point that we were sending the walk-ons to the field.  Now, for those who have never been through the NCAA recruiting circus, it’s important to note that walk-ons at the D1A level are frequently players that are extremely talented and coaches ask to come play for them with the promise that if they stick it out for a year, and a scholarship opens up the next season, they might sign them on.  I’ve heard it said walk-ons at the D1A level are frequently players that would be solid at the D1AA level.  Still, when Ferguson was helped off the field, we had Jacob Kahut (6’4″ 245 JUCO from Campbell) in at defensive tackle.  Understatement of the season: We’re thin.  Very thin.

With regards to recruiting, the battle lines are pretty clearly drawn.  There are those that think O’Brien has the right idea in trying to identify not chasing talent then there are those that are saying you can only get so “good” with solid coaching and no raw talent.  Either way, if you look at O’Brien’s recruits, you see a ton of 3-star recruits, several 2-star recruits, and a few walk-ons.  As far as four stars go…
– 2008: Brandon Barnes (ATH), Mike Glennon (QB), Sam Jones (OL), Kyle Linney (DT), Turrel Manning (LB), RJ Mattes (OL)
– 2009: Byrd (DB)
– 2010: Crisp (OT), Hunter (DE), Randolph (DT), Amerson (S)
– 2011: Hakeem Flowers (WR)
-2012: James Summers (ATH)

Draw your own conclusions from that list.  Even if you aren’t a fan of “star chasing”, just look at the 2011 and 2012 recruiting classes.  My question would be how aggressively O’Brien’s staff has been in capitalizing on the success of the 2010 season in landing top-level talent.  So far, O’Brien’s first recruiting class has been his best by far, but that was also when he was able to rest on the laurels of his success at Boston College.  Again, I’ll let the community draw conclusions from this statement.

Remaining Schedule

Left on the schedule we have 3 currently ranked opponents, 3 away games (one against #11 FSU), and one OOC opponent.

#25 Georgia Tech – Oct 1
Central Michigan – Oct 8
***BYE WEEK***
@Virginia – Oct 22
@#11Florida State – Oct 29
UNC-CHeat – Nov 5
@Boston College – Nov 12
#21 Clemson – Nov 19
Maryland – Nov 26

A lot of discussion is going on over at the SFN message boards concerning what many people predicted pre-season and what people predict will occur now.  I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that it’s going to be a tough road and absolutely nothing on the schedule can be taken for granted.

Other News and Some [Editorialized] Thoughts

Some time ago, I did a series called “Benchmark Tom O’Brien” (Link 1, Link 2) in which I compared TOB’s success to those of our previous coaches.  Some members of our community were in agreement, but after the 9-win season last year, man were not.  That is the problem with 9-win season after several years of sub-standard performance: you can’t be certain whether one season is “turning the corner” or a flash in the pan.  Tom, for whatever reason, just hasn’t panned out at NC State and there isn’t much hope to think, moving forward into October competition against a ranked and pissed-off Georgia Tech that we will get too much better.

In addition to that, JP Giglio over at the News and Observer supposedly said that the coaching staff is considering a redshirt for Mustafa Greene this season.  So why would a coach in a rut, 4 games into the season, begin considering redshirting their best running back?

Looks to me like O’Brien, the strong, disciplined legend from Boston College, has decided to follow the same template he did during the end of the Wake Forest game:

“I’m not into all this ‘we fought back’ and all that. We lost the game.”
-TOB’s post-game comments after the Wake game.

Way to fight to the end there, Tom. If this is the same mentality that surrounding the locker room, maybe that explains a lot.

About NCStatePride

***ABOUT THE AUTHOR: NCStatePride has been writing for StateFansNation.com since 2010 and is a 2009 graduate of the College of Engineering.

'11 Football ACC & Other NC State

122 Responses to The State of State Football (Pre-October)

  1. JSRy2k 09/23/2011 at 3:32 PM #

    I count 5-16 vs. Atlantic Div. & 9-3 vs. Coastal Div. (http://www.jhowell.net/cf/scores/NorthCarolinaState.htm – I didn’t verify, but it looks pretty accurate)

    And, yes, we beat BC last year at home. Nevertheless, TOB’s record sucks.

  2. moreforw 09/23/2011 at 3:35 PM #

    TOB should have been fired the day he told Russell Wilson he could not compete for the starting job. I came on here and said so then. You ”regular posters” told me and a few others we needed to shut up. “The coach SEES something in Glennon.” One person even threatened he better not be at a game and hear someone say anything about RW out loud. TOB is getting what’s coming to him and you ”regular posters” don’t know s$#t. I know the QB is not the only issue but Russell would make this team watchable, and more importantly, we would beat the Tar Heels. Now I’m done with my I told you so. I’m going to set the DVR for the Bager game.

  3. TruthBKnown Returns 09/23/2011 at 3:36 PM #

    I don’t have a problem with redshirting Mustafa this year. If he shouldn’t play, he shouldn’t play. Even if he CAN play, but isn’t 100% ready, I’d rather just save him for next year. If this year is shot, and that appears to be the case, why bother “wasting him” on this year anyway?

  4. cWOhLFrPAiCKs 09/23/2011 at 3:51 PM #

    ^+1. I was thinking the same thing earlier. This year looks like a wash as it is. Let Mustafa redshirt and have him for 3 more years. Him coming back halfway through the season isn’t going to change much with that abysmal o-line.

  5. NelsonHall97 09/23/2011 at 3:52 PM #

    Ed89: To my point. Butch Jones of Cincy = good coach of a team that would be a have-not in superconferenceland. Hell, the Big East stinks as a football conference and will stink worse once Pitt and Cuse come over.

  6. DirtyCap 09/23/2011 at 4:27 PM #

    Is it too early to start swirling Bill Cowher rumors, or will that have to wait until the end of the season?

  7. the reality 09/23/2011 at 4:28 PM #

    Something is driving this notion that “acceptable” is the goal, and the ultimate high-water mark, for all of NC State athletics. None of the athletic programs are anywhere close to being considered “acceptable” of course, but when being “acceptable” will earn you another contract extention, and it’s all that’s expected of you to begin with, then I guess absolutely stinking it up doesn’t seem like you’re too far off of the mark.

  8. PoppaJohn 09/23/2011 at 4:42 PM #

    Cute Badger header … when does it go away?
    Everyone seems to think RW having stayed would have cured our O-Line, coaching, and defensive problems. Sorry, would not have changed a thing. Our receivers are average, so we’d have seen RW running a lot more. I agree it would have given us a little hope, but I don’t see it translating into wins.

    Coaching search – think about our hoops search with our “incredible history”, “fantastic facilities” and being part of the best basketball conference in the country – we ended up with a TV announcer who only came here because he’s friends with the AD

    What do we have to sell a football coach? Good facilities, but what about that indoor practice facility they promised TOB a while back and haven’t delivered? Ouch, kind of embarrassing.

    I think the very best we can hope for in the coaching search is an up and comer who will drop by for a cup of coffee, win a few, and then graduate to a real football school.

    Folks, I’ve been watching State football since the 70’s, we are never going to be a strong football program, all we can hope for is occasional flashes of brightness and regional bowl games.

  9. grouchomarx 09/23/2011 at 4:50 PM #

    hey boys I’ll be the first to agree that we completely suck, but lack of RW isn’t the reason- that being said your BADGER header is over the line- I know, don’t like it go somewhere else/start your own site, yada, yada.

    Either you’re an NC State site or you’re not.

    GO F..K YOURSELVES AND MOVE TO WISCONSIN

  10. Ismael 09/23/2011 at 5:04 PM #

    Was going to say the same thing groucho… putting that Wisconsin banner up and RW’s image is the equivalent of airhead girls knowledge of football: “uhhhh, ommm, I think we’re losing cuz that cute Russell dude was here, and he’s not soo, mhm.”

    Every year guys, do we have to do this menopausal end-of-days stuff? I don’t understand the article, did we lose because TOB sucks or because walkons, RFr., and Fresh. were playing on the dline? I’m not here to defend coaches, Archer and Bible i think have run their course, maybe TOB too. But you’ve got Mattes last night getting burned and giving up sacks. You’ve got a zone D called on all out blitz’s. Something needs to change for sure, and maybe its the whole staff, but to say that injuries aren’t an excuse is disingenuous, especially when they are this widespread.

    When the Alabama’s and Oklahoma’s of the world are faced with similar situations you see them fall out of the rankings, you see them occasionally get embarrassed. If we still look like this when Sweezy et al get back then I think we can discuss this seriously, but, come on.

  11. Tuffy2 09/23/2011 at 5:09 PM #

    This guy called in on the Adam Gold show today stating that when TOB was at BC the 3 star players he recruited were better than the 3 star players TOB has recruited down here. There might be something to say for that. They the players up in New England are not given enough credit and should be ranked hire.

  12. NCSU88 09/23/2011 at 5:12 PM #

    Win or lose, at the end of the day, we still have each other. For that, I am grateful.

  13. TruthBKnown Returns 09/23/2011 at 5:24 PM #

    Fowler told Jimbo not to bother, canceled the interview, and hired TOB.

    I’m no defender of Fowler (BELIEVE ME!)

    But it may be that Fowler’s hands were tied on how much he could offer a coach. Maybe he knew there was no point in having a champagne appetite, but a beer budget.

  14. the reality 09/23/2011 at 5:34 PM #

    “Everyone seems to think RW having stayed would have cured our O-Line, coaching, and defensive problems. Sorry, would not have changed a thing.”

    I’m not going to get into any in-depth discussions on that topic, but you seriously aren’t still defending that decision right now, are you? If so, then remember there is much more to any sport, especially football, than simply outlining a set of rules and filling a kid’s head with dry and lifeless X’s & O’s. Motivation, leadership, and confidence are there beforehand, traveling in the bus, or on the plane, and those assets aren’t exactly on exhibit when a team first walks out onto the football field. But they’re there (not so much any more), they did make a huge difference, and it had a very positive effect on the entire team, well before any game ever even started.

  15. Dogbreath 09/23/2011 at 5:53 PM #

    Worst defensive line since Tom Loughlin and Jeff Kuh were manning the trenches.

  16. grouchomarx 09/23/2011 at 6:03 PM #

    the reality-so RW’s “motivation, leadership, and confidence”, of which you have firsthand knowledge as to how it effects the team, is the difference between this year and last?

    wow! please continue, I want more details. Should he be a write in for US Pres next year? the Republicans need a leader who can do miracles!

  17. the reality 09/23/2011 at 6:11 PM #

    Nope, not saying that at all groucho. You’re the one who said “wouldn’t have changed a thing”. It’s just the “a thing” part that I disagree with.

    *Sorry Groucho, it was actually poppajohn who said it.

  18. grouchomarx 09/23/2011 at 6:27 PM #

    Glennon is a better “pure” qb than RW. RW would perform better behind our shitty OL. I think all would agree with last statement. To say we would somehow be a better TEAM one vs. other is just wrong. The difference is probably 1 win at most, THIS YEAR.

    the QB debate is a straw man arguement.

  19. Hungwolf 09/23/2011 at 6:32 PM #

    You guys might be firing TOB too soon, we lost to a fired up Cincy team playing at home with a QB that probably had the game of his life!

    For some reason since TOB has been here he has done a remarkable job of team improvement as the season goes on. Certainly needs to work on getting his teams more prepared earlier in the year, but Beamer at VT has had the same problem, even lost to a D2 team last year. Remember our 0-4 conference start few years ago then went 4-0 and went to Papa John Bowl. Is this team worse talent wise than that one?

    Bible is a well respected offensive coach. On defense I wish we would hand the job over to Jon. We are 2-2 still with 10 games to play with bad BC, Va, and Central Michigan teams to play, an average Md team, and a home game against UNC. One thing I have noticed is the team has not quit on us yet and their has been no sign of player revolts or problems. No doubt injuries have left us thin, but with Glennon improving each week, we still could a 7 win season. Then with Glennon back next year, we will be better next year. I say we see TOB through this year and next at least.

  20. tcthdi-tgsf-twhwtnc 09/23/2011 at 6:32 PM #

    “We’re not the same team we were a year ago,” N.C. State coach Tom O’Brien said.

    Hmmmm, I’m curious as to why that is coach?

    Read more: http://www.newsobserver.com/2011/09/23/1510403/wolfpack-deflated.html#ixzz1Yoqq8b4f

  21. Wolfman 9806 09/23/2011 at 6:42 PM #

    Gotta agree………..the banner is to much. Hope you lose it soon, because it’s not funny or helping our situation.

  22. TruthBKnown Returns 09/23/2011 at 6:48 PM #

    What if we improve going forward? What if Cincy is really just that good?

    Obviously, we’re nowhere near where we want to be. But what if we are actually good enough to win some games against lesser ACC opponents?

    I guess what I’m getting at is what if we were to finish strong and win 7-8 games? We’d have to feel pretty silly about all this. Because it would look like all this was just premature knee-jerk reaction.

    I really don’t see any of this happening. Just thought that what if we’re on par with Wake, and just a lot worse than this Cincy team?

    Not gonna happen. I just hope we aren’t burning bridges with all this “replace TOB” talk when we’re just 2-2, after our 9-4 season last year.

  23. tcthdi-tgsf-twhwtnc 09/23/2011 at 6:56 PM #

    RW was a two sport star for 3 years at State. What changed this past spring? Wilson suddenly wasn’t able to compete for the starting job unless he gave 100% to NC State football? Really? NCSU pimped Wilson as much as they could and then cut him? But he really isn’t that good… Only good because he is with Wisconsin.

  24. Dogbreath 09/23/2011 at 6:58 PM #

    It’s year five people. Look at the trend lines. Are they up or down? I’d say flatlined, which is another way of saying we have no pulse.

  25. NelsonHall97 09/23/2011 at 7:13 PM #

    TBK: That’s the problem with some overly optimistic fans on here. When we had a tough game with Liberty people were saying “they won their conference the past few years.” When we lost to Wake, some were saying “they just have our number” or “maybe they’re a lot better than folks thought this year.” Then comes the USA game. “They’ve never lost a game.” Now, maybe “Cincy is the real-deal!”

    None of these are true. How many games do we have to stink up before we all recognize we are not a talented team. We certainly are not a well coached team, especially on defense. A good coach in his 5th year should not be fielding a team that looks as lost and unmotivated as ours does. They look too mechanical. No passion. The defense doesn’t fly around the ball. I don’t know how many times I saw 6 or 7+ black jerseys around our ball carrier while putting him to the ground.

    Shameful!

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