I’m feeling much too cynical about things to really draw this out, so we’ll keep it short and let everyone comment on how they feel about the game. First, a little housekeeping… Cincinnati is spelled with three I’s and three N’s. If you can’t spell Cincinnati, just say ‘Cincy’ or ‘the Bearcats’ or ‘that other offense tearing up our secondary’.
Cincinnati’s Record
As you may recall, we did a pretty good job of ripping Cincy a new one last year (30-19), but as O’Brien said, this isn’t last year. The one thing you can say about Cincy is that they are all about one thing: offense, offense, offense. Defense is NOT their forte. Almost sounds familiar.
This season, they’ve played two fluff games and one game @ Tennessee. So, here is why their record is concerning (and remember I said Cincy is all about offense):
vs Austin-Peay: 72-10 (W)
@ Tenn: 45-23 (L)
vs Akron: 59-14 (W)
A lot of people say you have to take wins against Austin-Peay (‘tuuurible’) and Akron (bottom of their conference) with a grain of salt, but 72 points, regardless of how you cut it, is a s***load of offense to put up against anyone who isn’t a middle school aged rec team. Even against Tennessee, Cinci still posted 23 points, including two touchdowns (both in the first quarter against Tenn’s starters) and 3 field goals. What this shows is that Cincy can post points against QUALITY opponents, despite their AWFUL 4-win season in 2010.
The one major thing going for State is Cincy’s head coach, Butch Jones, who in his second year is only 3-9 against FBS programs. He has a strong, quick team with a lot of options, but isn’t exactly the best coach in the world. The thing to watch out for is that this is only Butch’s second season at Cincy, so you can’t assume that 3-9 is consistent performance for his team. The performance thus far supports that.
Cincinnati’s Offense
They run. Period. Their quarterback is decent, and I suspect they will use that to spread the field when possible, but they win their games on the running game. UC has 12 individuals that have posted rushing stats (compared to NC State’s three), 4 of which have posted over 10 carries each for a total of 443 yards. Now, we have to bear in mind (no pun intended) that there was that Austin Peay game where UC posted 561 yards, but it’s still worth noting that UC has options which is something many have been complaining our team hasn’t taken advantage of on our roster.
I mentioned their quarterback is decent. He’s averaging around 62.3% for the season averaging 7.5 yards per attempt. Keep in mind that Glennon, who despite our results is actually doing pretty good, is 64% for 8 yards per attempt. Even against Tennessee, he was able to complete 61.7% averaging 6.8 yards per attempt. Not great, but against Tennessee it isn’t trivial either. The spread of passing-to-rushing is 45% passing and 55% rushing, so expect Cincy to use their passing game only as much as they feel they need to set up the rush.
Cincinnati’s Defense
Remember that Tennessee game? Yeah, the Vols had 531 total yards in that game. Tenn was able to complete 83% of their passes, averaging 9.9 yards per attempt. That is far better than the Tenn QB’s (Bray) seasonal average of 68% averaging for 8.7 yards per attempt. Don’t get me wrong, Bray was going to demolish UC’s defense anyway, but with inflated numbers like that, you have to look at UC’s inadequate pass defense and notice the problem.
Bottom line is that Cincy is not a defensive powerhouse by any means. They have a weak pass defense which means they are going to attempt to keep Glennon off the field. In the final 18 minutes of the Wake Forest game, recall that on a couple 1st and 2nd down passes, Glennon was able to strong-arm an offensive comeback. Don’t assume Butch Jones hasn’t noticed that.
Bottom Line
Cincy is going to attempt to take advantage of their flexible run-game, keep the time of possession on UC’s side, and do what they can to get NC State off the field quickly. Time is probably just as large (if not a larger) a factor as defensive efficiency in this game for Jones. It’s a pretty simple equation that even ESPN is likely to get right: if the defensive line can overcome the personnel loses we’ve suffered and remain still against the run, we’ll do alright. If we allow Cincy’s passing game to throw us off and become rendered ineffective against the run, we’ll get rolled. Draw your own conclusions.
Just as O’Brien said, this isn’t last year and the same applies for Cincy. They are by no means a “great” team, but they have an offense that can get it done. If the defense isn’t fluid enough to read and adapt to Cincy’s running scheme, it might be a long night.
Thursday at 8:00PM on ESPN.
