Benchmark Glennon: What Does One Game Mean?

Before I go into any of this, I can not emphasize enough how much one game can only give us a glimpse of what to look for in the future.  Still, I thought it would at least settle some nerves to take a look at the starting quarterbacks of the past 10 years and consider how each player fared in their debut start compared to how well they finished their first “starting season”.

FIRST, THE CAST…

Philip Rivers (#17) fielded his first start against Arkansas St in 2000, leading the Wolfpack over their opponent 38-31.  He finished the day connecting 51% of all passing attempts (29-51) and racking up a total of 397 passing yards.

Jay Davis (#10) started against Richmond in 2004, the season following a Tangerine Bowl victory over Kansas, crushing the Spiders 42-0.  He connected an impressive 73% of his passes (16-22) averaging 11 yards per completion.

Marcus Stone (#9) began his starting career during the 2005 homecoming game against Southern Mississippi leading NC State to a 21-17 victory, largely due to the help of a break-out game by Andre Brown.  Stone, who originally was a back-up for Jay Davis, only connected 38% of his passes (10-26) but managed to total 128 passing yards for the day and 13 yards per completion.  About the only good thing people recall about Stone’s tenure was his ability to truck unsuspecting defenders.

Daniel Evans (#7), son of famous Wolfpacker and current radio voice of the Wolfpack Johnny Evans, opened up two games into the 2006 season against Boston College leading the Wolfpacker over the Eagles 17-15.  He completed just under 50% of his passes (15-31), totaled 179 yards, and earned 12 yards per completion.

(NOTE: Harrison Beck didn’t see a massive amount of playing time the way these other guys did, so I didn’t include him in this list.  Sorry, buddy.)

Russell Wilson (#16) is… actually, scratch that.  If you don’t know who Russell Wilson is, you’ve probably navigated to the wrong site.  Russell opened against Clemson a couple games into the 2008 season.  The Pack fell short of defeating the Tigers 9-27.  Wilson’s passing game was on par with Daniel Evans (48% or 10-21), but his rushing game was on full display (compared to how every other quarterback fared in their season opener).  The rookie quarterback rushed 13 times for a total of 26 yards, the most rushing attempts for any quarterback in the past decade.  Wilson averaged 9.2 yards per completion that night.  It’s ironic that despite how much everyone enjoyed Wilson’s tenure, he is the only quarterback in this list to open up with a defeat; though, it’s worth noting that he also opened up to arguably the toughest defense of anyone else, as well. (NOTE: Wilson was actually slated to start the 2008 season opener against USC, but was injured after only 1 quarter or two full drives.  For the purpose of this analysis, I’m assuming that only getting to play for one series doesn’t really help you get your “first game jitters” out of the way, so for all intensive purposes… his “first full start” was against Clemson.  Thanks LRM for the head’s up.)

Mike Glennon (#8) started Saturday against the Liberty Flames in a 43-21 victory.  I know everyone is aware of this, but I’m writing it for posterity.  Glennon completed 58% of his passes (18-31) and racked up 156 yards for an average of 8.7 yards per completion.  Glennon only rushed 6 times, amounting to -26 yards, but I’m sure as every NC State blog on the internet will be willing to tell you, that was because of the O-line or whatever other force of God we are blaming performance on these days.  Please excuse my cynicism.

SO, WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT?

The short answer is… for what we’re talking about we’re not that interested in the game in general.  For Glennon, what you have is a quarterback that had hiss start at the beginning of the season, had to overcome some difficulties, made some incredibly stupid mistakes, but still gave a glimpse (maybe) of what he could or could not be.  It’s worth noting that Jay Davis and Philip Rivers are the only other quarterbacks on this list that debuted as a starter for the first game of the season.  Every other quarterback on this list debuted as a starter sometime in mid-season.  Glennon was forced into a situation where he had to debut as a new starting quarterback with an entirely fresh squad right out of summer camp, albeit an experienced one.

I can tell you what Glennon didn’t do: turn the ball over through interceptions.  That may be reaching to see the positive in Saturday’s game, but its something that shouldn’t be overlooked.  To be honest, I’m shocked that more people aren’t pointing that out, especially after some of the quarterbacks that came between Philip Rivers and Russell Wilson.  Now you may be saying “yeah, but Glennon did fumble the ball which was returned for a touchdown”.  Well, he fumbled when he got sacked and he only fumbled during one of his 4 premature run-ins with Liberty’s defense (still waiting on that legendary O’Brien O-line to show up).  I’m somewhat able to overlook that and recognize that as a quarterback, Glennon does have enough sense to not throw the ball to the wrong team.  It’s something and it gives me some confidence that no matter how Glennon turned out, hopefully we won’t be dealing with him willingly giving the ball to our opponents the way it’s felt previous quarterbacks have in the past.

ANYWAY, HOW DOES GLENNON’S PERFORMANCE FORECAST THIS SEASON’S FUTURE?

Long story short, last night doesn’t mean one damn thing in terms of who Glennon is or isn’t.  It’s all up to Glennon’s work ethic and how O’Brien and Bible develop him.

Here are the facts.  We all know who we liked and didn’t like ‘behind center’ over the past 10 years, right?  I think everyone agrees that besides Rivers and Wilson, NC State has died by their quarterbacking.

Let’s look at how everyone’s arm debuted in terms of passing percentage (red/top axis) and average yards per completion (blue/bottom axis).


In terms of distance, the only result that you might expect is for Philip Rivers to be a total beast .  What you may not be expecting to see is the next biggest contenders for strongest arm to be Marcus Stone, Daniel Evans, and Jay Davis, respectively.  Now, there are several reasons why Russell Wilson may have such a low average passing distance and percentage (such as issues with the receiving core), but the stats are what they are.

‘Average yards per completion’ is deceptive because it could simply be how the offensive coordinator decided to run the offense and not how capable the quarterback is, but the passing completions should be at least somewhat comparable between players, baring some discussion on the level of pressure each quarterback faced from the opposing team’s defense.  Obviously a quarterback who is facing an opponent like Clemson will probably have his receivers shut down more frequently than someone playing Richmond, which likely explains why Jay Davis’ passing percentage was so high sompared to Wilson’s.  All you can tell at this point in time is that judging the outcome of a quarterback is deceptive when you only look at their first time starting on the field and not how they evolved through the season.

Maybe if we look at the same stats over the course of each quarterback’s first season, we can see some kind of trend between their debut and what they ended up becoming.

…nope.

What you find when you look at the remainder of each quarterback’s season is that each individual’s passing ability leveled out to be about the same.  “So, NCStatePride, what’s the point of showing us this?”, you may ask.  The purpose of this plot is to prove that the ability of each quarterback isn’t necessarily in what their boxscore stats show, but in what happens off the field.  Maybe a better graphic to prove this point is in how each player’s passing percentage and average yards per completion improved over their first seasons.

Philip Rivers started great in his season opener and he stayed great (less than 10% change in his accuracy and distance per game).  That’s just who Rivers was… consistently impressive.  Wilson started mediocre and under the coaching of O’Brien and Bible improved to become who we all knew him as in the 2008 through 2010 season posting a 15% increase in his accuracy and an amazing 40% increase in his average range per game.  The point of this whole analysis is that Glennon’s mediocre performance proves nothing other than he isn’t a Rivers who will come in on day one and instantly win our hearts and souls.  Glennon’s start proves that he is a quarterback in control of his own destiny and that if he listens to the instruction and training of the very qualified Wolfpack coaching staff, he can become something great.

BOTTOM LINE (AND SOME NOTES ABOUT THE RUNNING GAME)…

Glennon will be relying on the coaching staff.  It’s been said time and time again that this is “put up or shut up” time for Coach O’Brien and his staff so what better way to “put up” for the fans than to develop Glennon into a machine?  Last season, he amazed the fan base and shocked the critics with his ranked 9-win season and victory over West Virginia in the Champs Bowl.  What everyone is looking for now is consistency in success.  Glennon didn’t start his career in any kind of irrecoverable hole.  If anything, Glennon started with a far more accurate arm than Rivers did (58% completions for Mike and 51% for Philip).  Let’s keep in mind, however, that Glennon is an older player now than when Philip debuted as a rookie starter.

If Glennon develops in the footsteps of Russell Wilson, the Wolfpack will be perfectly fine.  Remember, Wilson developed best in the area of yards per completion, making him a true deep-field threat.  The one area Glennon really lagged behind last Saturday was in yards per completion.

What we need to watch out for, with respect to Glennon’s development, is (a) how Glennon is developed into a greater long-range threat while maintaining his level of accuracy and (b) what Glennon does with his running game.  Glennon had 6 rushing attempts and lost 26 yards.  Now, the offensive line can be looked at if we’re trying to point fingers, but the bottom line is that the guys Glennon lined up behind last Saturday are the same guys he’ll be lining up behind when we play Carolina.  As the rest of the team improves, we can’t have a quarterback who is losing a quarter of the field per game (not to mention that NC State fans are just getting off the ‘rushing’ high that Wilson left… racking up an average of 39 yards per game in his starting season).

Glennon had an average start, and where he goes from here is up to him.  That is the message… the only message… that you can take from last Saturday’s game.

About NCStatePride

***ABOUT THE AUTHOR: NCStatePride has been writing for StateFansNation.com since 2010 and is a 2009 graduate of the College of Engineering.

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Home Forums Benchmark Glennon: What Does One Game Mean?

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  • #39342
    NCStatePride
    Member

    Before I go into any of this, I can not emphasize enough how much one game can only give us a glimpse of what to look for in the future.  Still, I th
    [See the full post at: Benchmark Glennon: What Does One Game Mean?]

    #39343
    LRM
    Keymaster

    Wilson’s first start was actually the 2008 opener at South Carolina; he was 1/5 for 12 yards before he was knocked out of the game.

    NCStatePride: True, but I only wanted to consider first full-games simply because to me, if you play one series in a game, get smeared, and then start a second game down the road, you might as well have never started before because you really haven’t had more “time” to establish who you are as a QB. Still, that’s correct so I’ll make a note of it. Thanks.

    #39344
    TheAliasTroll
    Participant

    I agree. I’ve been saying, after watching the game Saturday, that Glennon has a lot of room to grow. That is a positive.

    #39345
    Packfan28
    Member

    As I posted on another thread, the landscape is littered with big name QBs who had less than stellar performances their 1st time out. Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck were the two guys I specifically looked at.

    What I saw from Glennon was a QB with a strong, accurate arm who needs to become accustomed to game speed. I’m not down on Glennon at all. Quite the opposite actually. I’m excited we will have him as our QB the next two years, and look forward to many great games from him as the season progresses.

    #39346

    And in that game against the Chickens, there were a lot of late hits on Wilson that were never called. I almost had to but a new tv after that game. Also, if you call 13 carries for 26 yards a “rushing game on full display” then ouch.

    #39347
    NCStatePride
    Member

    Sundropdrinker13, if you read the article, you will see that the trend of each quarterback in their first full start was to not do ANYTHING in terms of rushing. Wilson’s 13-26 is pretty impressive for a first-time quarterback. If he had 6 carries for 5 yards, that would be “on par” for how first-time quarterbacks do in their first full start.

    #39348
    Packfan28
    Member

    24 for 51, 200 yards, 3 INTs. Matt Ryan’s 1st start.

    #39349
    redcanine
    Participant

    NCStatePride, thanks for the stats and graphs.

    I’m most interested in our QBs winning percentage. Glennon doesn’t need to be a Heisman, he just needs to be a winner! I still think that we have ourselves a good player.

    #39350
    NCStatePride
    Member

    Winner percentages are more subjective to debate. If you want to look at a quarterback winning percentage, you are attempting to correlate how the ENTIRE TEAM did to who was a quarterback. Proof-in-point, Russell Wilson in 2009. We had a 5-win season, but I don’t know of anyone who would say Russell Wilson was “only a 5-win quarterback”.

    What I’m interested in seeing is how Bible changes the way he has been doing things to the way it works for Glennon. Obviously at the beginning of the game Saturday, he wanted to run of the offense the same way he did for Wilson. It has nothing to do with who Wilson is or who Glennon is… the fact is that they are two different players and you have to change the offense to match their strengths.

    #39351
    phillypacker
    Participant

    Glennon is a fundamentally sound, intelligent quarterback who makes excellent decisions, does not lock on to a receiver and stays strong through the game. He was signed as a top-5 quarterback. Nothing I have seen challenges that fact. He won one competition against qb’s from all over the country down at Disneyworld. He is dead eye accurate. Against Liberty, his receivers did not do him many favors: Bryan (drop), others dropped, and broker off or ran wrong patterns.

    Glennon was adjusting through the game and his game ability kept him from having INT’s + plus one UL cb who dropped a ball in his hands when he jumped a route.

    As long as he is healthy, Glennon will be our QB. Please come back and wag your finger in my face if I am wrong.

    Many posters on this site are much more reactive than earlier in the site’s history. Why not ask questions sometimes rather than just obliviously vent your spleen? Oh and Glennon, solid if not great, showing in his first start. Take him to the bank.

    #39352
    tjfoose1
    Participant

    We should know what Glennon is after 4 games.

    #39353
    WolftownVA81
    Participant

    Great analysis Pride. Puts that game into proper perspective. I was hoping for a really impressive start but am not down on Glennon at all. He got the win and some valuable experience. Let’s go Pack and show Wake what we’ve got next Saturday.

    #39354
    Clarksa
    Participant

    I think the offensive game plan could have been a little better. We started out throwing on first down instead of trying to establish the run. Since we were going with the pass, we could have tried a few swing passes to get Glennon comfortable.

    Overall, I still put the blame on the offensive line. They should not have had that much trouble with Liberty. By chance is this a by-product of switching Horton away from O-line coach? Maybe a one game blip?

    #39355
    PAyscue
    Member

    Excellent analysis and agree with the “give him some time.” I too hope Bible will adjust the protection. We can agree MG ain’t the fastest, so empty backfields are not a good idea. While Liberty is not Clemson, they were a very good team. The typical D-II does not carry as many players on the road as they did. I think they substituted more than we did regularly throughout the game. MG will be fine. And for the record, Audie Cole is the man!!

    #39356
    packalum44
    Participant

    Glennon made some nice throws. One in particular was on a rope, went right over the linebacker’s head and hit the receiver in stride. Wilson could NOT have made that throw, he’s too short and doesn’t have the NFL arm strength of Glennon.

    Glennon’s worst throw was a screen and he zipped it over the tailback’s head. First game jitters – too much testosterone. He also threw into tight coverage but had so much zip on the ball, D-II corners couldn’t pick it off. That will change.

    In summary I saw a talented QB who held the ball too long, in part because his receivers and o-line did him no favors. Neither did Bible’s play calling, but I get the fact that we run all vanilla against D-II. Wake will be a much bigger test, but we have nowhere to go but up. We couldn’t have played a worse game and still won by 20.

    #39357
    packplantpath
    Participant

    Glennon also needs to work on timing the receivers. He didn’t lead them at times. That should come with time.

    I’m not worried about Glennon, per se. No pocket passer would excel behind that line, and expecting a guy in his first game starting to excel behind that line is too much. Without a better line, we may never know how good/bad glennon is.

    #39358

    This team, Glennon included, will only be as good as our running game and that starts up front with the OLine. If they don’t get more physical and nasty starting with Wake then this season will not go the way we hope.

    #39359
    Tau837
    Participant

    1. Thanks for the interesting post.

    2. This is such a small sample size, it isn’t particularly meaningful, especially considering some of the variables (e.g., Glennon being a redshirt junior who has been through spring practice twice as the #1 QB).

    3. I think it is (should be) obvious to all that Glennon is not going to be comparable to/as good as Rivers. If he was, he would have beaten out Wilson before now. Rivers is one of the best QBs in ACC history, so that bar is very high, and there is no shame for Glennon in not being that good.

    4. I think it is (should be) obvious to all that Glennon is not going to be comparable to/as good as Wilson. They are completely different types of QBs. And Wilson is one of the best QBs in ACC history, so that bar is very high. Unfortunately for Glennon, due to circumstances, this comparison will be relevant for the rest of Glennon’s career.

    5. So in terms of the QBs named in this post, IMO we are left with the question of whether or not he will be better than Davis, Stone, and Evans. I feel pretty certain he will. It might be more interesting to include a larger sample set of NCAA QBs or Wolfpack QBs.

    #39360
    Tau837
    Participant

    “if you call 13 carries for 26 yards a “rushing game on full display” then ouch.”

    Perhaps you aren’t aware that in college, sacks are characterized as QB rushing attempts, and yardage lost on sacks are characterized as QB ruahing yards. Here are Wilson’s rushing attempts from that Clemson game:

    1. rushed for 9 yards and 1st down
    2. rushed for 3 yards and 1st down
    3. sacked for loss of 9 yards
    4. rushed for 2 yards
    5. sacked for loss of 5 yards
    6. rushed for 4 yards
    7. rushed for 4 yards, late hit personal foul on Clemson resulted in 1st down
    8. rushed for 2 yards
    9. rushed for 2 yards, facemask personal foul on Clemson resulted in 1st down
    10. rushed for 3 yards
    11. rushed for 1 yard
    12. rushed for 6 yards and 1st down
    13. rushed for 4 yards

    He actually rushed 11 times for 40 yards and 5 1st downs (2 by penalty). That is pretty good for a QB on the road at Clemson in his first full start.

    #39361

    I was extremely disappointed in Glennon’s performance especially if you compare to how well Renner performed. He set an ACC record for gosh sakes.

    #39362
    Pack Mentality
    Participant

    First of all, great article.

    Next, you can count me as one that only cares about the winning percentage. I know that this is not necessarily who is re better qb due to external factors. But that is the coach’s legacy. If Glennon is not great and we end the season with 8 or more wins, I cannot fault TOB for his decision. 7 or less, well……

    #39363
    NCStatePride
    Member

    I agree that in terms of the outcome of the season, having a good QB and terrible results isn’t going to make me any happier.

    Still, in a game like last night, between Glennon and O’Brien, I think Glennon is probably more vulnerable to judgement than O’Brien. I think most people have made up their mind on the “is O’Brien a good coach” argument, even if there isn’t consensus in the fanbase. The question of whether Glennon is a good quarterback is still open for debate and will probably be the topic of discussion for the next month or two. That was really my motivation in this article.

    But like you said, the legacy of O’Brien won’t be if he can produce a good QB, it will be if he can follow-up a 9 win season with another successful season.

    #39364
    logarithm
    Participant

    I understand and agree with why you omitted Wilson’s first real start against South Carolina but I think he accomplished something in that first quarter (or whatever) that set the tone for his time running with the Pack. He came out and didn’t show great at QB, but then he made a gutsy run under pressure. I remember him enthusiastically taking the hit instead of scrambling for the sideline. He was hurt and he stayed down and had to be taken off with the stretcher. Everybody saw a glimpse of a heroic kid and was worried he was unconscious or paralyzed or something. And as he was strapped to the stretcher being carted off, crowd silenced in worry, he gave the crowd a thumbs-up. Anybody else remember that?

    He showed then and there what type of QB he was and how he was leading by example. Granted, that was an aberration. Wilson’s not the normal case in any way. I still think it bears mentioning because even if (hopefully when) Glennon and the pieces around him turn it on and make him the greatest QB we’ve ever seen, we still won’t be able to look back and say “yeah, we saw that in his first start.”

    #39365
    tjfoose1
    Participant

    “Glennon is a fundamentally sound,
    intelligent quarterback who makes excellent
    decisions, does not lock on to a receiver and
    stays strong through the game. ”

    What game where you watching?

    I hope you are correct, but that’s not what we saw for the majority of his first game as a starter.

    First two passes thrown into double coverage, locking in on receivers throughout the game, and poor pocket presence.

    I believe he is much better than that, but he has yet to prove it on the field during live, meaningful snaps.

    It was well into the 4th quarter before he began showing signs of being the QB most of us think/hope he is.

    #39366

    Did TOB ever ask his team if they would support RW even if he wasn’t around in the spring and summer? I would be surprised if the players said they would prefer Glennon over Wilson under any circumstance. If TOB didn’t ask the team then his choice wasn’t one based on the team but rather a call based on his view alone.

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