The Roadmap to Charlotte

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There seems to be a lot of confidence from the SFN faithful that we’ll cruise to a 10-win season in Tom O’Brien’s fifth season. I’ve been a State fan far too long to be that optimistic, especially considering we’ve got to figure out how to successfully traverse at least a couple of our regular obstacles.

Here’s the roadmap for how we get to Charlotte on December 3rd:

Win in Winston-Salem. We’ve won exactly once in Winston since 1995, and that was a decade ago, with the Great Philip Rivers (2001). Our games against Wake Forest at BB&T Field have been some of our worst; in my freshman year in 1997, we lost on a Thursday night when we failed to convert on a fourth-and-goal late in the game; in 1999, a few weeks after winning in Austin, we were taken behind the woodshed; in 2003, we were caught looking ahead to Columbus the following week; in 2005, 2007, and 2009 we were simply outcoached and outplayed. None of us seem to understand why we play so horribly at BB&T, considering it’s kind of like a smaller version of Kenan whenever State plays there.

Win in October. Tom O’Brien is a paltry 4-11 at State during October. Last season (2-2, 2-1 ACC) was a stark improvement over the 0-8 October winless streak in 2008 and 2009. Although State collapsed in the second half against Virginia Tech and couldn’t complete the comeback after we sputtered early at East Carolina, we responded after each of those losses with wins over Boston College and then Florida State. We’ve played Florida State four times in October under TOB, and we’re 1-3 against them, after we finally broke through last year. This October, we’ll play Georgia Tech at home, and then go on the road to play Virginia and Florida State in a stretch that could quickly end our hopes of playing in Charlotte.

Win in Charlottesville. Like BB&T Field, Scott Stadium has been a veritable abyss for State, lowlighted by either the 62-14 loss in 1996 or the 14-9 loss in 2002 (our third consecutive after starting the season 9-0). Wondering how long it’s been since we last won at Virginia? It was 30-27 in the 1994 season finale, on the old artificial turf, when Tremayne Stephens opened the second half with an 84-yard touchdown run and finished the day with 133 yards in the victory that propelled us to the Peach Bowl.

Win at Boston College. We’ve never done this before, and this year we go there late in the season, on their Senior Day, a week after playing Carolina, where we may be bloodied from numerous cheap shots (1:33 mark).

Beat Clemson. We last beat Clemson on a Thursday night way back in 2003. This series has been ugly since. In 2005, Clemson racked up nearly 500 yards of offense and chased most of the Thursday night Carter-Finley crowd out in the 3rd quarter; in 2006, Daniel Evans was only 10/24 for 95 yards while C.J. Spiller rushed for 154 yards; in 2007, Evans, Beck and Burke each threw interceptions and Clemson won by three touchdowns; in 2008, Russell Wilson was only 10/21 for 92 yards and our only touchdown was a pick-six by Nate Irving on the first play from scrimmage; and then, last year, the week after beating Florida State on Thursday night on ESPN, we went to Clemson in control of our own destiny when, late in the fourth quarter, with the game on the line, around midfield, needing only a single yard on fourth down, with the ACC’s best quarterback, we punted.

Beat Maryland in the season finale. Carolina is our rival and we hate them, sure; but Maryland is our bugaboo. My buddy Alvin says, “You can make a valid argument that they have opportunistically kept us from being a top tier football program.” You could argue with him, but you’d be wrong. In 2001, they prolongued the game with “injuries” that put them into position for the winning field goal, and then showered the field with oranges; in 2003, T.A. McClendon fumbled while trying to burn clock and then Nick Novak kicked a 43-yard field goal with seconds remaining to ruin Philip’s Senior Day; in 2007, with our bowl eligibility on the line, they beat us 37-0; and, of course, there was last year’s debacle in College Park.

Seems simply enough, right? Just do all of the above, and also sneak a win out of Tallahassee, and we should be set for a roadtrip to Charlotte on December 3rd.

About LRM

Charter member of the Lunatic Fringe and a fan, loyal to a fault.

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58 Responses to The Roadmap to Charlotte

  1. Dogbreath 08/25/2011 at 4:01 PM #

    Re: 2002 at Wake. When we came running out of the locker room at noon, wearing those ridiculous red pants, and Freddie Autry Lindsay sprinting down the sideline barking at their players on shit ass Jefferson Pilot TV, I knew we were going to get trounced. And boy did we.

  2. Lunatic Fringe 08/25/2011 at 4:05 PM #

    TruthBkmown, I may be confusing you more on that game, but Clemson’s offense was nothing short of dreadful.

    They were switching QBs back and forth. I remember laughing when they brought in the backup in the shadow of their goalpost only to have the obvious turnover follow. We did not take advantage in first half in the redzone.

    The issue was our offense playcalling and their defense playing well so the 4th and 1 seemed like an obvious go for it.

  3. wolffpride 08/25/2011 at 4:36 PM #

    I am not sure I agree with the perception that the majority of the SFN faithful are predicting us to cruise to a 10 win season. I am without question a fan who thinks that we can win 10 games this year, but feel very alone in that assumption. Anytime I say anything about our team being good this year there are 10 posts about how we only succeed at failing. Look at the posts above, so yeah, I am not seeing the support for this theory. Regardless, WE ARE GOING TO WIN 10 GAMES THIS YEAR. Make no mistake, this is the year. Defense is going to be nasty. Offense will put up points.

    The 4 hurt starters are more like 2. Losing Jarvis Byrd isn’t going to hurt us, CB is our deepest position. Plus he didn’t play last year and our secondary was much improved so I am not worried about that. I do feel bad for him, he has/had the makings of a good player. Duran Christophe might miss the opener and thats it, so no real loss.

    While Sweezy and Moose are out for the first 4-5 games we have backups that will fill in nicely. Wake and Cincy had joke defenses last year. Offenses aren’t all that impressive either, not bad, but not great. both lost a lot of talent. GT is the only team I am worried about but we got them at home and their D is suspect. Offense too for that matter. Have a little faith. Nothing is a gimme, but listen to our players talk…They sound so much more mature since TOB arrived and built his system…they know they have to earn every game, even Liberty.

  4. TruthBKnown Returns 08/25/2011 at 4:45 PM #

    OK, I give up. I must have smoked too much crack that day. 🙂

    Clemson was 20/29 passing for 214 yards. Maybe that’s not exactly killing it. But it’s not like they couldn’t move the ball. There were 4 minutes left when we punted. I suppose if we thought we could pin them inside the 10 that we’d probably hope to force a 3-and-out and get it back with decent field position.

    It’s just that it was ONE yard. And if we don’t get it, we still have time to stop them and get it back anyway. I think that’s what irked me about it so much. The ball was already on THEIR end of the field. I feel like if we went for it and didn’t get it, well at least we went down fighting.

  5. imawolf 08/25/2011 at 4:49 PM #

    That game in Clemson and the punt on 4th and one….yeah,,, I remember it, that was when I knew TOB (while a Marine), was an air winger and not an 0302 MOS (infantry platoon commander). He should have attacked.

  6. TruthBKnown Returns 08/25/2011 at 4:53 PM #

    wolffpride, I’m with you. I won’t predict or guarantee 10 wins. But somehow, it feels like it’s finally OK to believe something good is about to happen. Last year, Russell took a step backward from the previous year (I don’t think I’m alone in that assessment). But we did better, and that’s because we were a better TEAM. I think that continues this year. The main reason I think we’ll do well is because our defense should be right nasty. The offense, I think, will also do pretty well. It may take some time to get rolling on offense, but our easiest games are the early-season games. So we have time to gel on offense.

    I hear our receivers are faster this year, too. And as fall practice continued, they improved. I think TOB believes they’re ready now. And we also appear to have some kickers, even if they’re young. But I think that’s ok for kickers, unless they’re intimidated.

    I don’t know. Every year I tell myself State will blow it like we always do. This year does feel different.

    Having said all that, we could always come out and lay an egg. I really don’t think we will, though.

  7. BamaPack 08/25/2011 at 6:24 PM #

    The real key to this team winning 10 games is to find the land of unicorns and rainbows.

    Just dream baby…

  8. runwiththepack 08/25/2011 at 6:46 PM #

    packplantpath,

    I would have tried to say the same thing you said.

    But, as much fun as it has been to whup the upper crust of Chapel Hill, it’s too bad we have had sooooo much trouble with Clemson, WF, and Maryland for many years. None of those three did anything much Jan. 1.

    This year:
    7/8 wins: SFN grumbles, but no torches and pitchforks.
    9: OK. We’ll take that.
    10: Ahhhh… progress! Another NICE season!
    11: ACC champs finally! OMG! Sweet Jesus!!

    Ain’t EVEN gonna put 12 or more up there. I’ll deal with that if it comes.

  9. CaptainCraptacular 08/25/2011 at 6:52 PM #

    the Clemson game last year produced pure meltdown around here. TGW (The Gutless Wonder) replaced TOB for any reference to O’Brien for about 3-4 days, until folks cooled down a bit.

  10. LRM 08/25/2011 at 7:18 PM #

    I’m not saying we can’t win 10 games, but I just don’t see how anyone can argue this year’s team will be better than last year — maybe it will, but there’s simply no game-evidence to support it. We lost our best player on each side of the ball, have an untested QB and kicker, lost receivers, and our starting running back is out at least through September.

    This feels a lot like all the talk back before the 2004 season, when we were in a similar situation. We had the #1 defense in the nation that year and still finished 5-6.

    I really hope I’m wrong. The good news is this year we could have a worse team and still win nine games.

  11. wormlikewhoa 08/25/2011 at 7:30 PM #

    Would seem to me that the road to Charlotte goes right through Mike Glennon. He has to be at LEAST as good as Wilson or we won’t win 6 games.

  12. BamaPack 08/25/2011 at 7:47 PM #

    LRM FTW

  13. runwiththepack 08/25/2011 at 7:55 PM #

    wormlikewhoa,

    It would seem that Mattes, Allen, Wentz, Bryan, Greene, Washington, Gentry, Graham, Howard, Smith, Frandsen, Crisp, Wallace, Watson, Brosius, Rieskamp, Kuhn, Slay, Sweezey, Cole, Green, Manning, Maddox, Bishop, Amerson, Coleman, and Wolff…

    … would take issue with that statement.

    It seems to me that if NCSU doesn’t win 6 games, it won’t be entirely Glennon’s fault, if any at all.

  14. BamaPack 08/25/2011 at 8:11 PM #

    It is a little unsettling that the team which won with smoke and mirrors and a flag football offense suddenly has its smoke wearing a different uniform.

  15. runwiththepack 08/25/2011 at 8:31 PM #

    LRM,

    You’re right on. “There seems to be a lot of confidence from the SFN faithful that we’ll cruise to a 10-win season in Tom O’Brien’s fifth season. I’ve been a State fan far too long to be that optimistic”.

    Let’s all just wait and see what happens. There are an almost infinite number of variables. If we win 10+, which is unlikely, but not totally unrealistic, then let’s just be happy.

    Just don’t expect it.

  16. choppack1 08/25/2011 at 9:16 PM #

    As it is every year – we’re once again “in the margins” – with a few good breaks we can go 6-2, with bad ones, we can go 2-6.

    BUT…These “off” years – haven’t been too kind to us…Think of our special years best years …1994, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2008…our worst years where things were supposed to be pretty good were 1995, 1999, 2003, and 2009.

    This year we play our easiest in-conference opponents on the road. For a good to great team – this is a huge advantage. For a good team to worse – it puts these games squarely in the “toss-up” category. The injuries don’t have me feeling too good about things – especially since 2 of our top playmakers – are out during a key stretch.

    Prepare yourself for pain…We typically suck when the schedule breaks down like this. I’d say the Wake and Cincy games are huge…winning those games will be like when Sendek beat UVA at UVA in 2002 – it represents turning a significant corner. I’m not saying we’ll be out of the woods – after all, we started 3-1 in 2009 – but I’m saying, I’ll be pleased as punch to get any kind of win at Wake Forest.

  17. Wulfpack 08/25/2011 at 9:28 PM #

    Cautiously optimistic.

  18. sundropdrinker13 08/25/2011 at 9:41 PM #

    Here’s the stats for that CU game from last year:

    http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/recap?gameId=303100228

    Also, I could be mistaken, but didn’t RW throw his INT in the end zone?

  19. choppack1 08/25/2011 at 10:40 PM #

    sundrop – indeed he did. One of several he threw last year. He didn’t have a good game vs. Clemson.

    He had a strange season – struggled vs. UCF, ECU, Clemson, and VaTech…Red zone INTs vs ECU, Clemson and VaTech. OTOH, made great plays vs. FSU (and had a red zone INT vs. them as well), Cincy and made great plays vs. UNC.

  20. packhammer 08/25/2011 at 10:52 PM #

    I support TOB’s decision regarding Glennon. But BamaPack nails it. Go back and look at the crazy stuff RW pulled off to get the wins we did against UNC and FSU. I am looking forward to a great, fun year but expectations are in check for once!

  21. tjfoose1 08/25/2011 at 10:56 PM #

    x

  22. tjfoose1 08/25/2011 at 10:58 PM #

    A 10 win season is out of the question? Ridiculous statement.

    Considering our schedule, our depth, our talent, and our coach, the 2011 Wolfpack have a very good chance of reaching 10 wins.

    I’m not saying we should expect 10 wins, but to rule it out as a possibility is an insult to our players and coaches. Either that, or a public display of ignorance.

    I for one will go one record and state that our ceiling is much higher than being 8-4 going into the post season.

  23. tjfoose1 08/25/2011 at 11:10 PM #

    Some of you are not factoring in the Econ 101 conept of opportunity cost.

    Wilson was great. One if the best ever to play at State. But his talents and playing style did not always maximize the potential, development, and production of all his teammates.

    The impact of his loss is less than subtracting his talent and production.

  24. GAWolf 08/26/2011 at 8:15 AM #

    I just had time to read this….great, great read LRM. Thanks!

    This entry about sums up all the reasons why State football fans are Charlie Brown trying to kick the football. Truthfully, it wouldn’t hurt for our team and staff to read this thing.

    There are so many more “FSU to Baylor” moments in modern State football history, but these show exactly on point why we shouldn’t get all giddy during particular stretches of the year even if we do win as we should early on.

    It’s sort if like Wolfpack basketball over the last few decades. We need to learn how to regularly beat the middle tier of the ACC before we start buying hotel rooms in Charlotte as early as September.

    Jebus. The thought of what Maryland and Wake have readily done to our football program is quite discouraging.

    They’re our Marvin Austin and Mike McAdoo.

  25. Packfan28 08/26/2011 at 10:19 AM #

    Damn, thanks a lot LRM. I was one of those 10 win guys, but I really hadn’t thought about all the firsts and all the losing streaks that need to be broken to accomplish it. Now I’ll be ecstatic with 8 wins.

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