Another Look at Basketball Recruiting

ACC Basketball Recruiting College Basketball General NCS Basketball61

Let’s put the full disclosure up front—-I’m not a star gazer and I frequently laugh at those who are. But with that being said, I was really surprised by a piece DU put up several months ago about the recruiting of top-ranked high school players.

Among the things that I’ve learned over the years is that recruiting classes play no games against each other. So the value of recruiting class rankings is limited under the best of circumstances. One other thing that I’ve learned is that when the “stat” being touted is not consistent with the results on the field/court, then someone is looking at the wrong thing.

In general, I’m a bottom-line type of guy. If the end results are unacceptable, it’s not likely that my opinion will be swayed by those looking for bright spots amongst the crap. Which brings us back to DU’s entry….

The results of the basketball team over the last decade have ranged from mediocre to miserable. The results parallel my opinion of both the coaching and recruiting over the last decade. So I put some effort in figuring out a different way to provide some objective “measurement” of State’s recruiting to see if my initial judgment was off somehow.

There are several different ways to judge “talent” through stats like high school production, recruiting rankings, college production, draft status, and professional career. Let’s be clear…I like to see State sign highly-rated recruits and I like to see State’s players do well in the pros (NBA and Europe). But what I care most about is their production in college. So I decided to compile the All-ACC lists as a way to gage their production at the college level.

Here are the State players that were voted onto one of the All-ACC teams (minus the rookie team) over the last 10 years. I didn’t include the freshman team because it is a little like the tallest-midget contest.

 

2002

First Team

Anthony Grundy

2003

First Team

Julius Hodge

2003

Defensive

Clifford Crawford

2004

First Team

Julius Hodge

2004

Sec Team

Marcus Melvin

2005

Sec Team

Julius Hodge

2006

Third Team

Cam Bennerman

2006

Defensive

Cedric Simmons

2006

Hon Mention

Cedric Simmons

2007

Third Team

Brandon Costner

2007

Hon Mention

Ben McCauley

2008

Hon Mention

J.J. Hickson

2009

Def Hon Men

Courtney Fells

2010

Sec Team

Tracy Smith

2011

Hon Mention

Tracy Smith

 

(The years link to the press releases found at theacc.com)

 

The purpose of recruiting is to collect the best possible players and build a team. For State, you have to go all the way back to 2002 and Anthony Grundy to find a ball-handler selected to one of the three All-ACC teams. I couldn’t say how many times I’ve looked at State’s lineup and wished that we had a point guard as good as Justin Gainey (solid but not spectacular). When your coaches’ recruiting consistently leaves a huge hole in the most important position on the court, then I don’t think that any rational evaluation could conclude that the recruiting has been “good”.

Now for context…Let’s summarize the All-ACC awards for all 12 ACC teams over the last 10 years (noting that expansion occurred in years 4 and 5 of this 10 year stretch):

 

 

 

1

2

3

HM

D

DHM

Total

Duke

15

5

6

3

9

3

41

UNC

8

7

8

3

5

3

36

MD

4

6

6

3

3

1

23

WF

3

8

6

—

5

—

22

CU

2

2

4

3

4

5

20

FSU

3

2

4

1

8

—

18

GT

—

5

5

2

2

3

17

NCSU

3

3

2

4

2

1

15

UVa

3

5

1

4

—

—

13
               

UM

2

2

3

2

1

—

10

VT

3

2

4

4

5

2

20
               

BC

4

3

2

—

1

—

10

 

I think that my poor opinion of State’s recruiting was pretty accurate after all.   The article that DU referenced only looked at the highest ranked players.   The thrust of his entry was to point out that State has done fairly well in getting these highly-rated players.   However,  it would be a gross mistake to look at those results and conclude that State’s recruiting has been “good” or even “adequate”.     

You can bring up all of the excuses and future speculation that you would like, but the bottom line remains the bottom line.  State’s poor representation on the All-ACC teams (not to mention the W/L records) shows that the recruiting has been poor regardless of whatever the star-gazers conclude.   The chances of improving the results in the future without making real improvements in the recruiting are slim and none (and Slim has left the building).   

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

ACC Basketball Recruiting College Basketball General NCS Basketball

61 Responses to Another Look at Basketball Recruiting

  1. Daily Update 05/18/2011 at 7:20 PM #

    Vawolf: the point of my entry is that nc state attracts talented players naturally. Sure the coaches have made mistakes and not had the right collection of talent at all times. But talented players want to play here. There is no obstacle at state keeping a coach from winning like the national guys promote. A coach has access to talent here as much or more than any other program in the country except for the very few elite programs. If guys like Harrington, power, and Wilkins all leave the program after a year or two and then make the NBA, then clearly they were All-ACC caliber players when they were at state. Not getting production out of them and keeping them in the program falls on the coaches not providing the right framework to get the most out of the players. It does’t mean those guys lacked talent.

  2. Daily Update 05/18/2011 at 7:25 PM #

    Hate iPads. Your numbers merely show how poor to mediocre our coaching has been the last 15 years.

  3. VaWolf82 05/18/2011 at 8:25 PM #

    The won/loss record shows how bad State’s coaching has been for the last 20 years.

    Vawolf: the point of my entry is that nc state attracts talented players naturally.

    I think that I said that in the concluding paragraphs:

    The article that DU referenced only looked at the highest ranked players. The thrust of his entry was to point out that State has done fairly well in getting these highly-rated players.

    One of my points is that “good recruiting” is more than just attracting top-ranked high school players.
    – When your recruiting gets players that are not productive in college, then it is impossible to convince me that the recruiting has been good.
    – When your recruiting does not produce good teams, then it is woefully lacking in some area(s).

    Do you really think that the next decade will be better than the last if State’s position on the All-ACC lists doesn’t change?

  4. Daily Update 05/19/2011 at 10:22 AM #

    But recruiting isn’t the only factor. Game coaching isn’t equal once they arrive on a college campus. Strength and conditioning isn’t equal. Skills development isn’t equal.

    Coaching matters once these kids get to campus. We could have had the exact same players since 1998 and had better coaches that would have increased our number of all-acc players and had higher production from those same kids in college.

    Same kids + better coaches = more all-ACC players.

  5. Daily Update 05/19/2011 at 10:30 AM #

    For whatever reason, you are drawing your conclusions on recruiting while ignoring the variable of coaching once they get to campus. Coaching isn’t equal. How programs are run isn’t equal. How hard kids are forced to work isn’t equal. Measuring recruiting based on production in college doesn’t tell the whole story about talent levels and recruiting. If Josh Powell can play in the NBA for years since he left our program, then clearly he was a talented recruit. Sidney Lowe could recruit the same kids as UNC, but not get as many all-ACC performers out of the group simply because he can’t run a college basketball program. His players would have less success if they stayed in the program and others would transfer because he was so bad at his job. Then you would put him his all-ACC numbers as proof that Lowe didn’t recruit well when it would have been the same group of kids that produced the numbers for Roy, K, or Gary.

  6. VaWolf82 05/19/2011 at 11:19 AM #

    If Josh Powell can play in the NBA for years since he left our program, then clearly he was a talented recruit.

    Yes he was. But you talk like the list of proven State players that didn’t make one of the All-ACC lists is long. (Wilkins and Harrington were before the 10 year stretch that I examined.) As far as I can tell, the list of talented State players that didn’t make one of the All-ACC teams is very short.

    No ranking system is perfect. But focusing on subjective recruiting stars and high school rankings while ignoring everything after high school is far more flawed than an objective measurement of college production.

    Also, I compared State’s All-ACC selections to every school in the ACC, not just against UNC, Duke, and UMD. All of the coaching issues you mentioned also apply to varying degrees to every other program in the ACC. But when you look at ALL of the actual data, State comes in next-to-last in All-ACC selections from the 9 team ACC. Trotting out subjective rankings from high school shouldn’t out weigh actual production at the college level when evaluating recruiting.

    Yes coaching matters. But recruiting the right players and the right mix of players also matter.

  7. Daily Update 05/19/2011 at 12:18 PM #

    Additionally, go look at the schools above us on that list. If you start at the top, the ranking of each one of those schools makes sense.

    Then you get to NC State on that list nationally and we are completely out of place in terms of results. Why does almost every other team on the list get results similar to their recruiting rankings except for NC State?

  8. Daily Update 05/19/2011 at 12:25 PM #

    I am not sure I agree with counting all-acc defensive players at all or at least equally. In all-ACC voting, a players defensive ability is part of the equation. Also, I would think someone players make both all-ACC and all-ACC defense in the same year so they get counted twice.

    If you just look at all-ACC awards, then we are 5th in the league. The only real outlier on this list is Maryland who is way down in recruiting rankings, but just happens to also be one of the best coaches in the game. Was that good recruiting or was that because Gary can motivate, teach, and run a college basketball program at a high level so that players flourish in his system?

  9. VaWolf82 05/19/2011 at 1:05 PM #

    Was that good recruiting or was that because Gary can motivate, teach, and run a college basketball program at a high level so that players flourish in his system?

    All of the above and then some.

    How well have Gary’s guards done? Glancing quickly down the list of All-ACC teams, I come up with Vasquez, Blake, Gilchrist, and Dixon (to one for State). How much better would State’s big men have looked over the last decade if they were playing with these four?

    As I’ve said numerous times on this thread:
    – “Good recruiting” builds good teams AND the converse is also true.
    – Recruiting that leaves big holes in the line-up is not “good”, no matter how many stars that particular group earned in high school.

    You have rightly assigned the role of “motivation” to the coaches. But I haven’t seen you hold the players accountable for work ethic and effort. I’m a big believer in personal responsibility, so I believe that the players also play a huge part in whether or not they succeed at the next level.

    As far as I can tell, the only measure of State’s recruiting that points to “good” is subjective high school rankings of the top ranked players…ie a small group of total athletes recruited by all schools. I just prefer to take a broader look and include data that ties directly to performance in college.

  10. Daily Update 05/24/2011 at 8:34 AM #

    Blake, Gilchrist, and Dixon wouldn’t have had the same careers at NC State. Due to our coaching, structure, and atmosphere, none of the three would have likely flourished like they did at Maryland.

    “Subjective” high school rankings are a very accurate predictor of success on the list I provided until you get to NC State.

    Once they arrive on campus, coaching matters. So looking at all-ACC numbers doesn’t only reflect recruiting. It also reflects player development, motiviation, publicity from winning, etc…so you can’t use all-ACC rankings by themselves to measure recruiting. Coaching isn’t a constant variable once the kids step foot on a college campus.

  11. VaWolf82 05/24/2011 at 9:07 AM #

    Blake, Gilchrist, and Dixon wouldn’t have had the same careers at NC State. Due to our coaching, structure, and atmosphere, none of the three would have likely flourished like they did at Maryland.

    Maybe. But just saying it doesn’t make it a fact.

    “Subjective” high school rankings are a very accurate predictor of success on the list I provided until you get to NC State.

    The All-ACC lists provide an accurate predictor for every school. When I split the 10 years summarized above into the two five year segments of Sendek and Lowe, I found something interesting. Sendek’s teams ranked fifth amongst the 9 ACC conference…pretty much exactly where State usually ended up. For Lowe’s five years, State was tied for next-to-last place in the 12 team conference (one selection more than last place Miami).

    One of the problems (besides college coaching) with using high-school rankings as a predictor for success is that there is no easy way to “subtract” points for when the recruiting leaves a big hole in the line-up. Much like a top QB can make up for other deficiences on the team, a top PG can elevate everyone’s play….and State hasn’t had one in a very long time.

    When State’s recruiting can’t put a point guard on any of the three, annual All-ACC teams since 2002, then it is easy to claim (and prove) that recruiting needs to improve.

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