Overview of ACC Basketball

The ACC has limped through the first half of the conference schedule. So let’s see if it looks as bad as it feels:

ACC Summary 2-3

We have looked at the NCAAT bubble many times over the last several years. Based on those observations, I’ve developed the following criteria for ranking the teams:

IN = RPI <40 and a minimum of 0.500 in the ACC
OUT = RPI >65
BUBBLE = Anything in-between those two extremes

 

OBSERVATIONS

– In case you haven’t noticed, the ACC really sucks this year. In fact, it’s the weakest the conference has been since 2000. The ACC currently ranks fifth in the country…just behind the Mountain West in two different on-line RPI sites.

– Here is a graph that illustrates just how much the ACC has dropped off compared to last year (when the ACC was the third ranked conference).

ACC RPI Graph 2-3

 

Boston College

With losses to Harvard, Yale, and Rhode Island, no one expected BC to take the conference by storm this year. However, there are several things worth discussing (beyond their recent slide, losing four of the last five games to fall onto the Bubble).

BC has the 39th ranked OOC SOS per CBS Sports. If you have never looked at OOC schedules before, I encourage you to take a look and see what a “challenging” OOC schedule really looks like. (Hopefully, you picked up on the sarcasm.) As I’ve said a bazillion times before, you don’t have to schedule Top-25 teams to build a strong OOC schedule. Just eliminate those horrid programs that State always seems to schedule and the ranking will take care of itself.

There is no downside to playing an OOC schedule like BC’s:

– If you have a good team, then the wins in the ACC season will give you a good RPI ranking and you can secure a decent NCAAT seed before the ACCT even starts.

– If you don’t have a good team, then it doesn’t really matter anyway. Even if you build a bloated record on the Savannah States of the world, you will be exposed as a fraud by the ACC schedule and you’ll still be sitting home after the ACCT.

– If you have a Bubble team, then you have given yourself a chance to acquire a few more Top-50 wins to help out your overall resume.

BC’s losses to Yale, Harvard, and RI illustrate why the NCAA Selection Committee is justified in including SOS in the RPI calculation and in their selection process. The dregs of the basketball world are never going to beat an ACC team. But those teams in the middle might sneak up and surprise you. Teams that take a “risk” by playing those teams in the middle, deserve a “reward” for beating them instead of cupcakes. (From Jerry Palm – About 75% of the NCAAT teams are seeded within one spot of where you would predict based solely on RPI.)

Florida State

FSU has a really unimpressive resume for a team that was ranked in the AP Top-25. They do have a home win against Duke, but their only other Top-50 win was also at home against BC (#43 and fading). Since they don’t play BC again this season, you can be sure that BC will have no bigger fans than FSU between now and the ACCT.

The only Top-50 games left for FSU before the ACCT are against UNC (twice). One win over the Heels and a 10 win ACC season should be enough to secure an at-large bid before the ACCT even starts.

VT and Maryland

The difference in these two teams comes down to last night’s results…a road win versus a home loss. Both teams have exactly one Top-50 win – #44 Penn State. If you throw in Clemson, any of these three teams could make the NCAAT, but will most likely enter the ACCT still needing Top-50 wins to secure a bid.

It looks unlikely to me that more than one from this group stands a chance at making the NCAAT. It’s not hard to imagine a scenario where the #5 and #6 seeds in the ACCT could have a really rough road to make the NCAAT. Round 1 of the ACCT will be against the bottom of the ACC…where the win counts as nothing special. Round 2 could be against two bubble teams…which might not be all that impressive. Bottom line: I can see a scenario where a bubble team would need an appearance in the ACCT finals to secure an at-large bid. (Remember that VT has won on Friday in the ACCT and still not received an at-large bid.)

NC State

To date, State has a grand total of three wins against teams ranked in the Top-200 (#30 George Mason, #72 Miami, #127 ECU).   End Discussion.

Miami

Their free-fall continues having lost six of seven games in 2011. Has anyone seen the posters that were trying to argue that State’s win over Miami was a “good” win?

 

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS

One of the first pieces I wrote at SFN covered common mistakes made during internet “analysis” of State’s teams. I briefly thought about rehashing the claims made over the last two seasons into the outline of that piece, but then decided against it. The horse is nearly dead and there is no reason to beat it any more.

If life doesn’t interfere, I’ll do one more of these updates in the days just before the ACCT starts and we’ll see just how depressing the ACC is going to look in this year’s NCAAT. Friendly reminder – Keep the comments on the topic of the ACC season and NCAAT projections.

This article originally posted on Thursday, February 3rd but remains relevant and relatively unchanged to allow us to feature it again on Saturday.

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

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31 Responses to Overview of ACC Basketball

  1. 61Packer 02/05/2011 at 4:29 PM #

    section2chuck nailed it, mediocre to bad coaches have brought about the ACC’s demise from the best basketball conference to third or fourth best in the past 5 years or so.

    And I agree with the ACC overview. Just when I felt VT should be “in”, they lay an egg at BC today. And FSU, who should be “in”, will probably do the same tomorrow in Chapel Hill. Clemson finally had a road win today, but consider it was GT and say, “So what?”

    I’ve gotten a letter and an e-mail from the Wolfpack Club again this season, practically begging me to send in my ACC Tourney application. When they have to push ticket sales for the ACC Tourney, at Greensboro no less, there’s a huge problem.

    That huge problem is opening day Thursday, which is really worse than the Les Robinson play-in game. Instead of just one bad game, we now have FOUR of them. The tourney ticket now costs more than ever, and who really has the time or desire to sit through 4 straight days of ACC basketball, especially at the level it’s at now? Opening day will be nothing more than play-in games for the NIT.

    My solution to this mess would be to let all the ACC teams play each other twice each season, eliminating many of these sorry OOC cupcake games we have to pay for each season in our season ticket books. When the ACC regular season is over, everyone’s had an equal chance to determine their conference standing. The top 8 teams would then advance to the ACC Tourney. Result: better ticket sales all the way around, better regular-season and tourney, and happier fans. Makes sense to me.

  2. eas 02/05/2011 at 4:59 PM #

    +2 makes sense to me. Swoffords big plan to be a huge conference has back fired. A big conference of teams that primarily stink = well you guessed it. Atleast we can watch bad games on a huge TV network now.

  3. wolfonthehill 02/05/2011 at 5:03 PM #

    So in all seriousness – how long will Swofford get to run the league into the ground? He’s in charge of a league that’s dying a slow – but accelerating – death. Something’s gotta change…

  4. VaWolf82 02/05/2011 at 5:10 PM #

    So if the ACC is down because of bad coaching (which I agree with), then how exactly is that Swofford’s fault? Without expansion, the ACC would be 9 teams of suck instead of 12. How is that an improvement?

    There is no way to make the ACC tournament as important as it once was. It is never going to be anything other than a way for bubble teams to get a big win to make the NCAAT. I don’t see how eliminating the first round is going to improve anything.

  5. RickJ 02/05/2011 at 5:58 PM #

    “So if the ACC is down because of bad coaching (which I agree with), then how exactly is that Swofford’s fault?”

    I would not go as far as “fault” but when you set up a league schedule and sell your TV package that is all about highlighting 2 teams it does not encourage great coaches to want to sign on with one of the “Washington Generals” franchises.

  6. VaWolf82 02/05/2011 at 6:08 PM #

    What a pile of nonsense! If you really want to discuss this, start a thread on the forums.

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