Mid-Season BB Roundup

1/8 Update:

I made a horrible mistake when compiling the OOC SOS in the first table and totally screwed everything up.  Luckily, I copied and pasted the RPI numbers from CBS into a file and so I was able to correct the table.   The key changes are that:

– State’s OOC schedule should be seen as “average/mediocre” rather than “good”.   The super-weak teams at the bottom severely diluted the effect of playing (and losing) to four good teams.   Sadly though, this year’s OOC schedule remains one of the higher ranked ones over the last 15 years.

– Overall, the conference’s OOC schedules look really weak.   This will have a serious impact on the conference’s RPI ranking and could potentially affect any ACC bubble teams come Selection Sunday.

 

1/6 Article:

I was reviewing some old entries of mine in preparation for this mid-season ACC review when I came upon this comment:

If you play in the ACC and you get 20 wins (and 8-8 in the conference) you can pretty much rest assured that you’re getting a bid regardless of how many ‘quality’ wins.

Obviously, VT managed to prove that this “metric” isn’t worth the time it took to either type or read. Some of the early discussions that I’ve read on the forums here are just as wrong. If you want to avoid mistakes like this, then take a few moments to review all that we have documented about the Bubble and NCAA Tournament Selection.

Now let’s move forward and unveil what we know about ACC basketball as it stands today:

ACC Summary 1-6 Rev1

RANDOM OBSERVATIONS

– These numbers came from CBS Sports. Any errors in the calculations are their fault and transposition errors are mine.

– I’ve noted two different things in red….Top 50 wins which are REQUIRED to get an at-large bid and the three teams that feasted on too many cupcakes. (More on this below.)

– If you go back through the 10 years of Herb and the 5 years of Sid, this season ranks about third in strength

– There are more sophisticated ways to evaluate NCAAT status, but for today, I’m only using RPI based on the discussion that I linked above (and yes I’m feeling generous towards BC today).

– This is the first time that I have ever done an ACC snap shot and not had a bubble team (unless I put BC here). I don’t think that we can consider this “good”.

– There is a lot of basketball left to play this season and the most important games have yet to be played. However, this may be the weakest ACC since the late 1990’s. There were several years then that only 3 of 9 teams made the NCAAT. We may be looking at a similar percentage this year.

 

LOOK BOTH DIRECTIONS

If you look at the review that I did last year at this time, you would see that the bottom and middle of the ACC are considerably weaker this year. As many people have pointed out, this situation reduces the number of chances that the ACC teams have to get those quality wins needed to make the NCAAT.

If we use last year’s mid-season numbers to project forward, we see that:

– Both teams graded as “IN” last year made the NCAAT

– 3 of 5 Bubble teams made the NCAAT.

– Only 1 of 5 teams graded as “OUT” made the NCAAT.

As I said earlier, there is a lot of basketball yet to be played and most teams have their future in their own hands. However, that does not mean that the information we have today is worthless.

 

STATE’s RESULTS TO DATE

 BB Results 1-6

This schedule is substantially better than anything we’ve seen from Sidney. It would be foolish to schedule only teams expected to make the NCAAT. But it is also foolish to schedule so many teams ranked 200+. An “average” OOC schedule could have been “good” or even “great” with a little more up front planning.

Please don’t attribute this large number of bad teams to luck. If anything, history suggests that having four good teams on the schedule is luck. But at least this type of OOC schedule won’t be an embarrassment if State is in contention for an at-large NCAAT bid in March.

 

REMAINING SCHEDULE

Remaining BB Schedule

With such a weak conference this year, it seems silly to discuss whether the conference schedule is “hard” or “easy”.   Short of winning the ACC tournament, there is no way that a team with a losing conference record is getting an at-large bid. 

However, it is foolish to project that 9 or 10 conference wins would be required.   As seen last year, conference wins as a gross total can be meaningless.  Quality wins are what matter on Selection Sunday.  However, how many quality wins would be considered “sufficient” is a fluid number (based on the results around the country). But a minimum number of three Top 50 wins would at least get you into the conversation for an at-large bid. 

 

CLOSING THOUGHTS

There aren’t really any conclusions that you can draw from such preliminary data.  The purpose of the entry is simply to document where you are and how far you have left to go. Obviously State has a long way to go. In fact, State has accomplished literally nothing to date that would be seen as a positive on an NCAA resume.

 

 

WARNING:  I’m sure that the excuses will run like rain water in the comments.   But this entry is not a coaching discussion thread and it will not turn into one.

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

10-11 Basketball ACC ACC & Other College Basketball

35 Responses to Mid-Season BB Roundup

  1. Wolfy__79 01/06/2011 at 8:44 PM #

    10 ACC wins to even get a look from NCAA!

  2. Cardiac95 01/06/2011 at 9:06 PM #

    I love this kind of analysis!… Another good barometer I look at is the number of total losses… Number of total wins can be inflated in any number of ways (as we’ve seen in the last 15 years), but number of losses is a hard thing to hide from when you play in a major conference… As a point of reference, NC State hasn’t lost fewer than 10 games in a season since the 80’s…

    As a general rule, you won’t see many At-Large bids given to teams with more than 12 losses… It does happen (13 losses and a bid), but its rare & is usually accompanied by a strong SOS…

    And while our SOS is harder in the non-conference that we’ve been for decades, our ACC SOS looks to be significantly weaker than normal… that’s a net wash for our overall SOS…

    And with that said, we won’t get an At-Large bid with more than 12 losses… So we have 4 losses now and will pick up another in the ACC Tourney (if we don’t, we won’t need an At-Large). That leaves 7 conference losses in the regular season OR in more familiar terms, a 9-7 record.

    So if we’re 9-7 in the regular season, we’re on the bubble in my opinion. 10-6 started to become more solid… Pending ACC Tourney wins, either 9 or 10 could get us in.

    Less than 9 wins and we have no chance…

  3. VaWolf82 01/06/2011 at 9:14 PM #

    If the 9 wins come from the bottom teams in the conference, then State would be in the same position as VT was last year….possibly even worse.

  4. GameOfInches 01/06/2011 at 9:16 PM #

    I share the same appreciation of your analysis. Great Job!

    This shows how important the WFU game is Saturday. I don’t care if Wake sucks or not, we need to play well and win. Both are possible.

  5. choppack1 01/06/2011 at 9:19 PM #

    I’ve come to the conclusion that as of late, the NCAA takes a hard look at RPI – and your results against overall quality opponents. In other words, our conference records will be considered w/ the addition vs. the 5 legit teams we’ve played this year.

    Given that we are 1-4, I think you are looking at a minimum of 10 wins over the rest of the season, at least one of whom must be Duke.

  6. Cardiac95 01/06/2011 at 9:22 PM #

    Agreed… lots of variables there… where the wins come from in conference… ACC Tourney performance…

    But anything less than 9 is a definite no-go… So if we get our 9th regular season win, THEN I’ll start getting excited about NCAA potential…

    And I really don’t expect to be getting excited based on performance to date… But I’d love to be proven wrong…

  7. hpack 01/06/2011 at 9:30 PM #

    The math is very simple

    With zero signature OOC wins, looks like 11 ACC wins, including the ACCT games, will be needed to guarantee an NCAA tourney bid.

    10 wins is iffy. VT had 10 last year but lost 1st ACCT game and was excluded. GT only had 10 but one came against Duke and they made the ACCT CG.

    Start counting them down this weekend.

  8. NCSU84 01/06/2011 at 10:41 PM #

    Umm…has anyone noticed that only one ACC team is currently ranked? I think things are going to be different this year – this year’s ACC is not the same as your father’s ACC. A weak conference means fewer teams get in and it is possible only the top two or three will make it. Sad but true.

  9. xphoenix87 01/06/2011 at 10:56 PM #

    Of all the teams without a signature win, I think we’re in the best position. We lost to 3 top 25 teams on the road and 1 top 40 team at home, all without our best player. We have no signature wins, but no bad losses either, and the committee does take injuries into account, so the OOC schedule shouldn’t drag us down if we can take care of business in conference.

    Of course, there in lies the rub. If the team doesn’t actually improve and win conference games with Tracy back, then none of this discussion matters.

    Just as another angle on things, I’m a big fan of Ken Pomeroy’s rating system (at kenpom.com), which calculates how good a team is using not only wins and losses, but takes into account home/road, quality of opponent, and margin of victory. It offers perhaps a better picture of how good these teams actually are. Here’s the national ranks of ACC teams according to him:

    Duke 1
    Maryland 15
    UNC 18
    Va Tech 33
    FSU 43
    Clemson 52
    Miami 56
    BC 59
    NCSU 77
    GTech 88
    Virginia 102
    WF 174

  10. ryebread 01/06/2011 at 11:04 PM #

    Unless Duke goes 16-0 in the regular season and wins the ACC tournament, then I see the ACC as a 4 bid league this year. Right now, it looks like Duke, MD and UNC are probably getting in. FSU, BC and NC State are fighting for that fourth spot.

    Because we lost all of our real OOC games, the pressure will be on during the ACC season. Had we won two of those (both Syracuse and Arizona were very winnable), then I’d say we’d be in pretty good shape. As it sits now, the margin of error is razor thin.

    I love the discussion and the analysis.

  11. NCSU84 01/06/2011 at 11:10 PM #

    xphoenix87, if the top 64 teams make the NCAA, based on Pomeroy’s rating eight ACC teams make it in? Not likely.

  12. VaWolf82 01/06/2011 at 11:20 PM #

    The top 64 teams don’t get in. There are 68 teams in the NCAAT this year and 33 (I think) automatic bids.

    The Pomeroy or Sagarin ratings might be a better rating system…I don’t really know. However, I DO KNOW that the Selection Committee doesn’t use them. So it doesn’t seem likely that either system will tell us anything at all about the selection process.

  13. GameOfInches 01/06/2011 at 11:22 PM #

    How far would we climb in the RPI if we were fortunate enough to win our first two conference games? 10-15 spots? That would be five or six wins in a row. I don’t mean to look past any opponent, I’m just curious.

  14. wufpup76 01/06/2011 at 11:48 PM #

    “Quality wins are what matters on Selection Sunday.”

    ^End of article …

    Good work – thanks for putting this together. The only saving grace for our potential ACC bubblicious teams *could* be that they actually have to fill out the brackets, and there are a LOT of weak teams out there.

    The trouble is that we’ve only had one team establish itself against OOC competition and get quality wins. Quality wins are gonna be hard to come by when only one team in the conference counts as a ‘quality’ win.

    But as was said, things are indeed fluid. You can’t really project anything right now, but it certainly looks like four teams max – and most teams will need double-digit conference victories to even get into the discussion, much less guarantee anything. The importance and pressure of the conference tournament could be the highest we’ve seen in some time … could be very interesting.

  15. VaWolf82 01/07/2011 at 12:49 AM #

    There is no way to calculate what will happen with a national ranking based on what happens with only one team. In any event, what MIGHT happen isn’t important at all…only what actually does happen.

  16. Wolfy__79 01/07/2011 at 12:59 AM #

    a 10 win nc state is much different than a 10 win va tech. va tech has no history of being good, ours.. although in a very distant past gets us a better look than a 10win hokies team will ever have.

    with 10 wins, i meant we only get a look or part of the discussion.. we definetly are OUT right now. the team has improved over the past few games but those “signature wins” aren’t there. we do have a bad loss, wisconsin was a very bad loss. we weren’t even competitive. the only positive we got from that was a near win against cuse.

    with 10 wins, a strong run in the ACC tourney might get us two looks. we need 2 of 4 b/t unc duke.

    wake is a great barometer for this acc season. wake, bc and fsu. we need 2 of 3. anything less and our ncaa tourney fate will rest solely on our acc tourney success. this stretch followed by duke and close behind will be unc. we don’t need to look too far into the season to see where we will end up, the first 8 will do. two losses is all we can afford.

  17. Wolfy__79 01/07/2011 at 1:03 AM #

    i’m really disappointed that we have to even talk about signature wins. this has to change, nc state is much better than this.. or should be.

  18. OldWuf 01/07/2011 at 3:31 AM #

    Great analysis. Those OOC losses loom large. Tough road to get there. Will take a monumental season for us to do it.

  19. xphoenix87 01/07/2011 at 3:46 AM #

    NCSU84 –

    1) The best 64 (or 68) teams don’t make it to the tournament. There are 31 automatic bids, and only a small handful of those will go to teams that would’ve made the tourney otherwise. So, you’re really looking at the top 45 teams or so.

    2) The kenpom rankings aren’t there to try and determine which team will get into the tournament. There’s a lot that goes into that beyond simply how good a team is. The kenpom system attempts to produce a rating of the actual quality of teams, and, in my opinion, has a much greater predictive value than something like RPI. So, while it doesn’t show us who would get into the tourney at this very moment, it gives us a better idea of who might get there by season’s end. For example, just looking at that RPI chart above, you might think that Maryland is a patsy with no chance at getting in. The kenpom ratings indicate that they’re a lot more likely to rack up a bunch of conference wins than, say, BC.

  20. Wulfpack 01/07/2011 at 7:50 AM #

    Nothing like starting conference play behind the eight-ball. Same ‘ole, same ‘ole around these parts. And this has turned into a SORRY conference. BC in, after having just lost to Harvard for the 2nd straight year? Not arguing your logic here. Just stating the obvious.

  21. Packfan28 01/07/2011 at 9:21 AM #

    I’m stating the obvious here, but a few less Tennessee Techs and SC Upstates, and a few more George Masons would go a long way to helping our year end RPI. It was great we had some quality OOC games, but we kind of ruined it with an overdose of the worst of the worst.

  22. Prowling Woofie 01/07/2011 at 10:30 AM #

    So, in order to achieve that 3 win minimum against Top 50 teams, the Miami and BC games are must-wins, and we must then win at least one against Duke and/or UNC. Or sweep UNC and win one of the other four. Or – You get the picture.

    Lots of pressure on this team for the balance of the season. Given the tendency of this bunch so far to only play half a game at maximum effort, hopes of making the tournament may rest on winning it all in Greensboro…

  23. waxhaw 01/07/2011 at 10:31 AM #

    I agree that it depends on who we beat in the ACC but you have to consider T. Smith’s injury.

    If we go 10-6 in the ACC, we would have finished 12-6 once Tracy came back. All four non conference losses would have been to respectable teams and without Tracy. That has to count for something to the selection committee.

  24. VaWolf82 01/07/2011 at 11:04 AM #

    I’m not sure that Tracy’s injury will have any effect at all come Selection Sunday:

    – If State gets the quality wins it needs with Smith, then the OOC losses won’t matter.

    – If State doesn’t get the quality wins in the ACC season, then State won’t have a good enough resume of ACCOMPLISHMENTS to get in…so the OOC losses and Tracy’s injury won’t matter.

    As far as I can tell, the NCAA selects “good” teams based on the fact that they have beaten other good teams. It would be impossible to evaluate the potential field based on what might have happened if X had been able to play for Y for any given game.

  25. BJD95 01/07/2011 at 11:13 AM #

    If one is interested in what Sagarin thinks – overall #83 (in between Rhode Island and Vermont), with a schedule ranked #306.

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