Benchmark Sidney Lowe: Can He Recover?

10-11 Basketball Coaches Debbie Yow General NCS Basketball110

If nothing else, this should be therapeutic for NC State fans after last night’s 75-66 loss to Boston College.

Sidney Lowe finds himself in mid-season at 11-5.  This isn’t necessarily a terrible record (well… it is sort of) unless you consider that our largest winning streak has been a 5-win streak over teams with mostly RPIs of above 200.  Actually, as of last night, the average RPI of teams we have defeated has been 240.9.  Let that soak in for a second.  Now consider that in the ACC, only one team has an RPI worse than 240.9: Wake Forest.  Funny how that works out.  I fully recognize that RPI rankings have poor fidelity until later in the season (please see some of the outstanding work by VaWolf82), but this does give us an indicator of the type of opponent NC State is capable of defeating.

Sidney Lowe, to date, has an overall winning percentage of 0.550.  In NC State’s history, only one coach has coached worse than Lowe, Les Robinson at 0.443. Note that there is only a 20% difference between Les’ figures compared to Lowe’s.  Similarly, Sidney Lowe’s ACC winning percentage is 0.318.  Again, all ACC coaches, besides Les, have risen above this mark.  Here is a rough table of coaches, their overall winning percentages and ACC winning percentages.

Coach

Since 1953

Win Percentage
Years Number Overall ACC
Everett Case 1953 1963 11 0.682 0.601
Press Maravich 1964 1965 2 0.736 0.679
Norm Sloan 1966 1979 14 0.682 0.572
Jim Valvano 1980 1989 10 0.628 0.507
Les Robinson 1990 1995 6 0.443 0.298
Herb Sendek 1996 2005 10 0.591 0.450
Sidney Lowe 2006 2010 5 0.550 0.318

Note that previous to the circumstances surrounding 1990, NC State was always at least 50% or better over ACC foes.  Since then, NC State as struggled to keep up.  Sidney Lowe isn’t so much an isolated problem as much as he is a continuation of non-competitiveness against our conference rivals since the departure of Jimmy Valvano.

The problems with Lowe’s squads have been legion, but so far fans have been willing to give Lowe the benefit of the doubt for multiple seasons.

Year 1:

His first season was, all things considered, not too shabby.  He was a new coach with “decent” players (a few great ones) and managed to finish at 20-16, make the ACC Championship game, and making the NIT Quarter Finals.  While this was a step down from the previous year, it was expected and to an extent, excusable.  The one aspect of Lowe’s first season that many did not consider is the easy schedule that was grandfathered in by years of scheduling powder puffs in the 200+ range of the RPI rankings.  If we had played Year 1 with Year 5’s schedule, I doubt NC State would have found itself with 20 wins, in the NIT, but probably still would have made the ACC championship game (since NC State already had no momentum going into March).
Potential Excuse: It’s his first season.  He’s never been an NCAA head coach before so you can’t expect him to come in and win a National Championship on day one.

Year 2:

Sidney Lowe managed only 15-16 (4-12) and was eliminated in the first round of the ACC tournament.  Again, many people excused this due to the personality issues facing the team with a new coach and abrasive situations between Lowe and Grant.  The conference record was only 1 win short of the previous season, so again my question would be how much ease of OOC schedule played into Year 1’s favor (as well as coaching carry-over from the previous coach).
Potential Excuse: He’s still learning and having to manage personalities that were recruited by a different coach.  When there is strife inside the team, it’s always going to be hard to win.  Lowe is also having to completely change the team from the Sendek-esqe offense to a faster-paced style of ball.  Give it time.

Year 3:

Widely regarded as a complete Charlie Foxtrot season, Sidney managed only one win better overall (16-14) and finished with his career conference high (6-10).  Consider that Sendek’s career high record was 11-5 (Thank you Julius Hodge).  Robinson’s was 8-6, Valvano’s was 10-4, and Norm Sloan, in 2 years, went 12-0.  This represents one of the statistical categories in which Lowe holds the lead for worst coach in NC State history.
Potential Excuse: Hey, he had a bad season.  This is his third year of experience as an NCAA coach and he made some mistakes.  The previous seasons weren’t REALLY his fault, so we should give him this season as a mulligan.

Year 4:

Lowe’s fourth season saw glimmers of hope.  For the second time, Lowe was able to win 20 games, but finished the regular season one ACC win short of his previous year.  So what do you take from that?  NC State “ran off” Sendek because he couldn’t beat ACC opponents above that 50% mark the way all of his pre-1990 predecessors had, so it is difficult to say whether this is a good sign that Lowe was improving to win 20 games a season, or a bad sign that he still couldn’t produce in the ACC.  What is even more concerning is that after an impressive win over National Champions DUKE, Lowe went on a 1-7 losing spree only managing to defeat an OOC opponent, NC Central.  Sidney Lowe, in his fourth season with by-in-large “his players” could achieve a 20 win season, but without making any noise in the ACC.

For reference, when Sendek had at least 20 wins or more, he was tacking on around 8.5 conference wins a season (slightly better than 50%).  Again, we (rightfully) “pushed out” Sendek for not being able to breech a mediocre level of ACC success, compared to his predecessors, and Lowe has yet to even achieve 50% mediocrity.

Luckily, Sid had his 20 win season and a top rated recruiting class coming in.  With Lee Fowler still in charge and a top-rated recruiting class coming in, Lowe’s job was safe for another year.  Interestingly enough, many fans said we should keep Sid after his fourth year if for no other reason than ensuring Fowler couldn’t lead another botched head coaching search, similar to the one in 2006 that found Sidney Lowe in the first place.
Potential Excuse: Look, we got 20 wins and are heading in the right direction.  We have AMAZING talent coming in.  Plus, do you REALLY want Fowler looking for another coach?  Let’s give him the benefit of the doubt and give him another year.

Year 5:

You’re living it.  Let’s not relive the terrible defeats and minor, teasing victories of 2010-2011 in blog form.

The bottom line is not that Sidney Lowe can’t still salvage this season into something respectable, but only to point out that Sidney Lowe has a long, long way to go until he can be called anything close to a respectable coach. Still remaining on NC State’s schedule (last night’s RPI in parenthesis) are 2xFSU (90), 2xDuke (5), Miami (33), 2xClemson (113), 2xUNC (20), VT (62), WFU (255), Maryland (115), GT (175), and UVA (143).

Consider that NC State is 0-5 against teams with RPIs of 50 or better and there are only 9 remaining games against teams with RPIs of more than 50.  If this is any indication of how the season will go, NC State could still go 20-10 (10-6), finish in the top 4 or 5 in the ACC and maybe even hit the NCAA bubble depending on how the ACC tournament goes.  That’s not necessarily an unrealistic scenario.  Optimistic, sure, not in no way unrealistic. Furthermore, Lowe’s previous 20 win seasons include wins gained during the ACC tournament.  This means Lowe could have a 21 or 22 win season in 2010-2011.

NCAA Or Not, Can Lowe REALLY Recover?
Then again, consider that Sidney Lowe is this deep into a hole of under-achievement.  Can Sidney Lowe really recover?  I’ll bring up our previous coach, Herb Sendek, one more time to make a very valid point that all State Fans should ask themselves.  Sendek had NC State competing for 3rd in the ACC pretty regularly, winning just under 50% in the ACC on average, and making occasional forays into to the top 25.  NC State was so displeased in Herb’s plateau (inability to punch into being once against a dominating program) that we pushed him away to look for a coach with more potential.  So here is the question: Is Sidney Lowe’s goal to simply not be the worst coach in NC State history and/or to reach the fanbase’s bare minimums each season, or is it to do what Sendek couldn’t do and make NC State a perennial top 25 program once again? If Lowe is able to reach the realistic goal of making it on the NCAA bubble and getting a low tournament seed, I can very easily see Lowe raising his stats to the point that he regularly competes for 3rd in the ACC and has fairly regular 20-win seasons.  I believe Lowe can reach Herb’s level of success.  However, given his inconsistent performance and extremely questionable coaching decisions (why the Hell is Harrow getting yanked out of games when he’s hot?!), do NC State fans, and by extension Debbie Yow, honestly think that Sidney Lowe, 0.550 overall and 0.318 in the ACC, can bring NC State to the top of the national heap again? Even if we manage our way into the NCAAT this season, as most people said was Lowe’s minimum requirement this season, does that necessarily mean Lowe is the coach for NC State, knowing what “a coach for NC State” should be expected to do?

I leave you with some of the insightful words of Julius Hodge after last night’s loss to BC:

Tweets from Julius Hodge following 75-66 loss to BC, 1/11/2011

About NCStatePride

***ABOUT THE AUTHOR: NCStatePride has been writing for StateFansNation.com since 2010 and is a 2009 graduate of the College of Engineering.

10-11 Basketball Coaches Debbie Yow General NCS Basketball

110 Responses to Benchmark Sidney Lowe: Can He Recover?

  1. bradleyb123 01/13/2011 at 10:41 AM #

    Has anyone noticed the quiet sound from the AD’s office regarding the basketball program?
    –pack44fan

    Serious question. If you think silence from the AD at this point is a bad omen for Sidney, what would you expect from the AD if his job was safe? I haven’t heard any other AD’s out there affirming their coaches jobs.

    Again, I’m being serious when I ask this. What should Debs say at this point in the season? Maybe I never took note, but do AD’s commonly speak positively about their coaches midseason?

  2. howlie 01/13/2011 at 12:16 PM #

    Nicely written article with a well presented case.
    I see two conclusions:
    1) We have to see how it plays out & whether we DO get that 20-22 ‘W’ season that is still possible (I thought it was already a lost cause without being forced to win the ACCt); &,
    2) Should we get there, a ‘deciding factor’ on this staff’s future depends upon how our play carries over into the NCAA games.

    So… we will see.

  3. Master 01/13/2011 at 12:37 PM #

    I have not read all 5 pages of comments, but I want to say two things:

    1.) This was an extremely well written article which uses objective facts about the career of Sidney Lowe at the helm of NC State’s basketball program with virtually no pejorative comments to stir the pot. Thank you NCStatePride!

    2.) As much as I love Sidney (I knew him socially in college), his teams don’t exhibit the intensity necessary for winning in the ACC. Even though Les (another State coach I know socially) was not sucessful at State, he took a rag-tag group of guys (after Fire & Ice) who would not start for any other team in the ACC and played hard every night.

    Sidney has the luxury of playing in one of America’s finest facilities, in the hot-bed of college basketball, far removed from scandal and probation for a passionate fanbase. Unless we have a historical turn around this season, Sidney should be graciously replaced. Until that time, our fanbase should turn out in force every night in an effort to light their fire in a way it appreas their coach cannot. At least that will be OUR lasting legacy this year instead of a mud fight that splits and angers our fans. Internal division has been our greatest failure over the past 20 years.

  4. pack44fan 01/13/2011 at 1:32 PM #

    Bradley123, my point is that Fowler constantly used the media to affirm his support for Sendek, Amato, and Lowe. In my opionion, Ms. Yow is handling this situation in the correct, professional manner, whether Lowe is retained or asked to resign at the end of the year. This will not be the three ring circus that we previously witnessed.

  5. VaWolf82 01/13/2011 at 1:33 PM #

    Another note from me to the poster whose posts keep disappearing:

    We welcome intelligent, dissenting views here. We do not welcome disparaging remarks directed at the site or the posters here.

    Remove those types of comments from your posts and your dissenting opinion will be heard and discussed. Leave them in and I will keep deleting them until I eventually delete your username and rights to post here. It’s your choice.

  6. NCStatePride 01/13/2011 at 2:19 PM #

    Just a note for those who have complimented the article:

    Thank you for you continuing support and for supporting SFN. I know the founding writers/owners appreciate your support for this site which, at times, seems like the last remaining outpost of rational discussion concerning NC State.

    Again, thank you for your support and your input!

  7. bradleyb123 01/13/2011 at 2:51 PM #

    pack44fan, I agree with that. I think we are all happy that we don’t have that buffoon Fowler still running the show. Who knows what that guy might have said by now.

    But I took your comment about Yow’s silence to mean you think something is going down. Do you think something is going down already, and we just don’t know it yet?

    I’m one of the few that supports Sidney, and my support is even dwindling now. I think he blew that BC game for us by replacing Harrow with Javi with under four minutes remaining. Big mistake, and it probably cost us a legitimate chance at pulling out the win. I’ve been saying I think Sid deserves a chance to finish the year strong. But I really don’t see that happening. I personally HOPE Debs is already making calls, and preparing for the inevitable.

  8. Classof89 01/13/2011 at 6:21 PM #

    “What worries me is that we’ll replace him with some other unproven commodity and just continue toiling. If I thought we’d bring in a proven guy, I’d be more likely to support replacing him. I hope I’m wrong about this, but this seems to be our M.O. for quite a long time. Even Valvano was an unproven guy when we hired him, I believe. He just turned out good for us (other than the whole NCAA probe thing). We brought in a good football coach in TOB. But I think that was because HE chose us. Maybe we’ll get as lucky in basketball. But I doubt it.”

    Can we put ridiculous, defeatist statements like this to rest once and for all? Any competent AD (and that’s a quality that was in very short supply when Lowe was hired) can make some calls and come up with a short list of coaches who would represent a VAST improvement from the current occupant of the office. There’s no “luck” about it. Valvano had taken Iona to the NCAA tourney before coming here (and that was the pre-expansion NCAA tourney with 48 teams). He had taken a school that was not historically much of a basketball power and turned it around. There are 9-10 young, hungry, ambitious head coaches around the country RIGHT NOW who are doing the exact same thing at small to medium sized programs! And I guaran-damn-tee you nearly all of them would give their left nut to coach in the ACC…

    The fact that we ended up with Lowe instead of any of those coaches is a testament to the monumental laziness and ineptitude of the prior AD.

  9. choppack1 01/13/2011 at 6:58 PM #

    Just to look at those win %s another way – over a 16 game conference slate, Les would average 4.8 wins a year, Sid would averages 5.1…and Sid does this w/out the academic restrictions Les had to endure and playing in a tougher ACC. (And believe me, I’m not a big fan of Les’ coaching at all.)

  10. travelwolf 01/14/2011 at 4:02 PM #

    I thought the team showed a lot of improvement in the BC game vs. prior games. We played a controlled game, had few turnovers, and played pretty good defense. BC took advantage of defensive lapses and shot well at the end of the game.

    I really don’t understand why alumni are “freaking out” about Lowe and the team. We played BC away and were pretty close to winning. We weren’t able to stop their main player – who, by the way, is clearly going to the next level.

    As I’ve said before… PLEASE wait until the season is mostly over before assessing the state of NC State basketball. We are a very young team, and therefor we should be much better at the end of the season than we are now. Lowe’s teams usually improve as the season goes on (as this team is doing – in case you can’t been watching).

    It’s amazing that 40% of our scoring is coming from freshman. Once they are ‘almost’ sophomores (i.e. in this year’s ACC Tournament), we should be much improved! I think that things are looking up, and in a month, we should know…

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