Benchmark Sidney Lowe: Can He Recover?

10-11 Basketball Coaches Debbie Yow General NCS Basketball110

If nothing else, this should be therapeutic for NC State fans after last night’s 75-66 loss to Boston College.

Sidney Lowe finds himself in mid-season at 11-5.  This isn’t necessarily a terrible record (well… it is sort of) unless you consider that our largest winning streak has been a 5-win streak over teams with mostly RPIs of above 200.  Actually, as of last night, the average RPI of teams we have defeated has been 240.9.  Let that soak in for a second.  Now consider that in the ACC, only one team has an RPI worse than 240.9: Wake Forest.  Funny how that works out.  I fully recognize that RPI rankings have poor fidelity until later in the season (please see some of the outstanding work by VaWolf82), but this does give us an indicator of the type of opponent NC State is capable of defeating.

Sidney Lowe, to date, has an overall winning percentage of 0.550.  In NC State’s history, only one coach has coached worse than Lowe, Les Robinson at 0.443. Note that there is only a 20% difference between Les’ figures compared to Lowe’s.  Similarly, Sidney Lowe’s ACC winning percentage is 0.318.  Again, all ACC coaches, besides Les, have risen above this mark.  Here is a rough table of coaches, their overall winning percentages and ACC winning percentages.

Coach

Since 1953

Win Percentage
Years Number Overall ACC
Everett Case 1953 1963 11 0.682 0.601
Press Maravich 1964 1965 2 0.736 0.679
Norm Sloan 1966 1979 14 0.682 0.572
Jim Valvano 1980 1989 10 0.628 0.507
Les Robinson 1990 1995 6 0.443 0.298
Herb Sendek 1996 2005 10 0.591 0.450
Sidney Lowe 2006 2010 5 0.550 0.318

Note that previous to the circumstances surrounding 1990, NC State was always at least 50% or better over ACC foes.  Since then, NC State as struggled to keep up.  Sidney Lowe isn’t so much an isolated problem as much as he is a continuation of non-competitiveness against our conference rivals since the departure of Jimmy Valvano.

The problems with Lowe’s squads have been legion, but so far fans have been willing to give Lowe the benefit of the doubt for multiple seasons.

Year 1:

His first season was, all things considered, not too shabby.  He was a new coach with “decent” players (a few great ones) and managed to finish at 20-16, make the ACC Championship game, and making the NIT Quarter Finals.  While this was a step down from the previous year, it was expected and to an extent, excusable.  The one aspect of Lowe’s first season that many did not consider is the easy schedule that was grandfathered in by years of scheduling powder puffs in the 200+ range of the RPI rankings.  If we had played Year 1 with Year 5’s schedule, I doubt NC State would have found itself with 20 wins, in the NIT, but probably still would have made the ACC championship game (since NC State already had no momentum going into March).
Potential Excuse: It’s his first season.  He’s never been an NCAA head coach before so you can’t expect him to come in and win a National Championship on day one.

Year 2:

Sidney Lowe managed only 15-16 (4-12) and was eliminated in the first round of the ACC tournament.  Again, many people excused this due to the personality issues facing the team with a new coach and abrasive situations between Lowe and Grant.  The conference record was only 1 win short of the previous season, so again my question would be how much ease of OOC schedule played into Year 1’s favor (as well as coaching carry-over from the previous coach).
Potential Excuse: He’s still learning and having to manage personalities that were recruited by a different coach.  When there is strife inside the team, it’s always going to be hard to win.  Lowe is also having to completely change the team from the Sendek-esqe offense to a faster-paced style of ball.  Give it time.

Year 3:

Widely regarded as a complete Charlie Foxtrot season, Sidney managed only one win better overall (16-14) and finished with his career conference high (6-10).  Consider that Sendek’s career high record was 11-5 (Thank you Julius Hodge).  Robinson’s was 8-6, Valvano’s was 10-4, and Norm Sloan, in 2 years, went 12-0.  This represents one of the statistical categories in which Lowe holds the lead for worst coach in NC State history.
Potential Excuse: Hey, he had a bad season.  This is his third year of experience as an NCAA coach and he made some mistakes.  The previous seasons weren’t REALLY his fault, so we should give him this season as a mulligan.

Year 4:

Lowe’s fourth season saw glimmers of hope.  For the second time, Lowe was able to win 20 games, but finished the regular season one ACC win short of his previous year.  So what do you take from that?  NC State “ran off” Sendek because he couldn’t beat ACC opponents above that 50% mark the way all of his pre-1990 predecessors had, so it is difficult to say whether this is a good sign that Lowe was improving to win 20 games a season, or a bad sign that he still couldn’t produce in the ACC.  What is even more concerning is that after an impressive win over National Champions DUKE, Lowe went on a 1-7 losing spree only managing to defeat an OOC opponent, NC Central.  Sidney Lowe, in his fourth season with by-in-large “his players” could achieve a 20 win season, but without making any noise in the ACC.

For reference, when Sendek had at least 20 wins or more, he was tacking on around 8.5 conference wins a season (slightly better than 50%).  Again, we (rightfully) “pushed out” Sendek for not being able to breech a mediocre level of ACC success, compared to his predecessors, and Lowe has yet to even achieve 50% mediocrity.

Luckily, Sid had his 20 win season and a top rated recruiting class coming in.  With Lee Fowler still in charge and a top-rated recruiting class coming in, Lowe’s job was safe for another year.  Interestingly enough, many fans said we should keep Sid after his fourth year if for no other reason than ensuring Fowler couldn’t lead another botched head coaching search, similar to the one in 2006 that found Sidney Lowe in the first place.
Potential Excuse: Look, we got 20 wins and are heading in the right direction.  We have AMAZING talent coming in.  Plus, do you REALLY want Fowler looking for another coach?  Let’s give him the benefit of the doubt and give him another year.

Year 5:

You’re living it.  Let’s not relive the terrible defeats and minor, teasing victories of 2010-2011 in blog form.

The bottom line is not that Sidney Lowe can’t still salvage this season into something respectable, but only to point out that Sidney Lowe has a long, long way to go until he can be called anything close to a respectable coach. Still remaining on NC State’s schedule (last night’s RPI in parenthesis) are 2xFSU (90), 2xDuke (5), Miami (33), 2xClemson (113), 2xUNC (20), VT (62), WFU (255), Maryland (115), GT (175), and UVA (143).

Consider that NC State is 0-5 against teams with RPIs of 50 or better and there are only 9 remaining games against teams with RPIs of more than 50.  If this is any indication of how the season will go, NC State could still go 20-10 (10-6), finish in the top 4 or 5 in the ACC and maybe even hit the NCAA bubble depending on how the ACC tournament goes.  That’s not necessarily an unrealistic scenario.  Optimistic, sure, not in no way unrealistic. Furthermore, Lowe’s previous 20 win seasons include wins gained during the ACC tournament.  This means Lowe could have a 21 or 22 win season in 2010-2011.

NCAA Or Not, Can Lowe REALLY Recover?
Then again, consider that Sidney Lowe is this deep into a hole of under-achievement.  Can Sidney Lowe really recover?  I’ll bring up our previous coach, Herb Sendek, one more time to make a very valid point that all State Fans should ask themselves.  Sendek had NC State competing for 3rd in the ACC pretty regularly, winning just under 50% in the ACC on average, and making occasional forays into to the top 25.  NC State was so displeased in Herb’s plateau (inability to punch into being once against a dominating program) that we pushed him away to look for a coach with more potential.  So here is the question: Is Sidney Lowe’s goal to simply not be the worst coach in NC State history and/or to reach the fanbase’s bare minimums each season, or is it to do what Sendek couldn’t do and make NC State a perennial top 25 program once again? If Lowe is able to reach the realistic goal of making it on the NCAA bubble and getting a low tournament seed, I can very easily see Lowe raising his stats to the point that he regularly competes for 3rd in the ACC and has fairly regular 20-win seasons.  I believe Lowe can reach Herb’s level of success.  However, given his inconsistent performance and extremely questionable coaching decisions (why the Hell is Harrow getting yanked out of games when he’s hot?!), do NC State fans, and by extension Debbie Yow, honestly think that Sidney Lowe, 0.550 overall and 0.318 in the ACC, can bring NC State to the top of the national heap again? Even if we manage our way into the NCAAT this season, as most people said was Lowe’s minimum requirement this season, does that necessarily mean Lowe is the coach for NC State, knowing what “a coach for NC State” should be expected to do?

I leave you with some of the insightful words of Julius Hodge after last night’s loss to BC:

Tweets from Julius Hodge following 75-66 loss to BC, 1/11/2011

About NCStatePride

***ABOUT THE AUTHOR: NCStatePride has been writing for StateFansNation.com since 2010 and is a 2009 graduate of the College of Engineering.

10-11 Basketball Coaches Debbie Yow General NCS Basketball

110 Responses to Benchmark Sidney Lowe: Can He Recover?

  1. easyjet7 01/12/2011 at 8:15 PM #

    I just skimmed the article, but I thought it interesting that I did not see any mention of the 8 losses in a row to Carolina. That surprised me since Carolin is State’s biggest rival.

  2. Wolfy__79 01/12/2011 at 8:20 PM #

    ^very true. that really hurts. especially since unc-ch was not good last year.

  3. JeremyH 01/12/2011 at 8:41 PM #

    Lowe we will always love you for ’83, but after 4 years plus, no improvement in your coaching that we can see! Thank ya for bringing in Leslie, Brown, and Harr-oh, but “Lowe” and behold its time to go!

  4. coach13 01/12/2011 at 8:42 PM #

    I would be disappointed if Yow isn’t already sending out feelers. Even if Lowe makes the NCAA, at the pace this team is improving, we may compete for an ACC title….in 2031.

    I don’t want to hear we can’t afford a top tier coach either. There are some strong folks in the WPC. Somebody with some influence has got to be pissed and ready for a good coach.

    I am so sick of having to debate if we have a coach worth a crap. If that is a main topic every year for half or most of the fans, then what the hell is so hard about making a change? Who, a specific name please, has so much damn pull that we can’t get rid of Lowe?

  5. JeremyH 01/12/2011 at 8:57 PM #

    The players are an extension of the coach and everything he has taught them when they are on the court. The players that are not learning sit the bench until they demonstrate that they have. So goes the mentor/apprentice relationship.

    “I am so sick of having to debate if we have a coach worth a crap.”

    I’m just ill that we have to burn an entire season on this experiment. I hope that Yow is not going to be trigger shy come season end, given what happened with Gary Williams.

    And how in the he** does a player like Reggie Jackson fall into BC’s lap like that? I prefer Boston to “the South” too, but come on.

  6. EdMar 01/12/2011 at 9:02 PM #

    We like you Sidney; we appreciate you taking the job when Fowler could not find anyone else, I hope things turn around this year and we end up towards the top of the ACC, make the NCAA’s and you stay to become a successful coach. If you cannot make it this year your experiment in coaching did not work. Your ten years track record should be enough of a trial.

    Sidney winning percentage in the Pros and ACC games:
    Pros 25%. 24%, 28%, 28%, 0% ( 0 for 8)
    ACC 31%, 25%, 60%, 31%

  7. rawolf 01/12/2011 at 9:23 PM #

    Let me start by saying that I am not all for Lowe, but this must be said. These young men have played play their whole life and they dont need someone to tell them how to box out and play hard all the time. So some of this blame needs to go on these young men. I can live with beening beat as long as I know these young men are giving all that they have. None the less I will pull for my team and school forever no matter their record. GO PACK !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  8. rtpack24 01/12/2011 at 9:30 PM #

    Conrad Sidney is the one that put Javi in the game a senoir who came out of a timeout and had no clue what to do, how can that not be on the coach. It is the coaches duty to make sure his players know what to do. Now if there was a play and Javi came off a pick and missed a shot then that is not Sid’s fault however your senoir pt guard has no clue then that is on the coach and I think most coaches would tell you that. Sid should not resign and he should not be fired befor the end of the season. Someone mentioned the UNC factor. Last year UNC won 5 conference reg season games 2 against us.

  9. VaWolf82 01/12/2011 at 9:32 PM #

    Note from me to the ONE poster whose posts keep disappearing…

    Address the points that you feel need addressing.
    Quit attacking other posters.
    Quit putting words into someone else’s mouth.

  10. packfan03 01/12/2011 at 9:53 PM #

    While there is no guarantee we would have won with Harrow in the lineup, I feel that the decision to insert Javi eliminated us from contention.

    Unbelievable. Incomprehensible. Asinine. Incredulous.

    There are so many words rumbling in my weary mind, but, “disheartening” seems most apropos.

  11. choppack1 01/12/2011 at 10:08 PM #

    I don’t care about Tracy Smith being out.

    I don’t care that our team is young.

    It wouldn’t even bother me if we lost.

    What bothers me is that I’m seein this year EXACTLY what I’ve seen his other 4 years.

    I’m w/ tj foose on this one. We’re asking Lowe to do something he’s obviously incapable of doing. It’s actually sad to see him trying to go out there and play defense…Can you imagine playing for this guy?

    You’re trying to play D in the heart of the possession – and Coach is yelling something, jumping around…Here’s a hint – if you are working that in hard in the game – each possession, you’ve ALREADY LOST.

    I shouldn’t try to suppress it, but I am still po’d at Lee Fowler for how he’s changed my image of Lowe. He should be put in prison for making this hire – it was almost evil in its cynicism and incompetence. It was almost as if Fowler was saying, “I’ll show you to want CHANGE under my leadership!”

  12. choppack1 01/12/2011 at 10:18 PM #

    Conrad – the hire should have NEVER been made. Hiring Lowe and expecting him to succeed was borderline insane.

    You had someone who never graduated from college.

    You had someone with one of the worst all-time records in the NBA.

    You had someone with no college coaching experience. Zero, zilch, nada.

    What you did have was someone w/ a passion for NC State. You had someone w/ extensive NBA playing and coaching experience. And someone with a charismatic personality.

    His charismatic personality has definitely done its part in recruiting. However, he’s proven himself a poor motivator, a poor organizer and a poor teacher.

    The BC game had an eery similarity to so many other games we’ve had under Lowe. It represented that rare opportunity to make a statement early in the ACC season – and show you’ve arrived. Now, like he’s been in his other 4 ACC seasons, Lowe will be behind the 8 ball.

    Don’t worry – we’ll play inspired basketball at least 10 more times. We may even go 6-4 in those games. However, we’ll have at least 5 more games like this one – and those are the ones that will keep us from the tournament…not the games where we leave it all on the floor only to lose on a full court heave (that was a direct result of questionable coaching tactic.)

  13. tuckerdorm1983 01/12/2011 at 10:26 PM #

    look guys we hired Matt Doherty. Plain and simple. It took them 3 years over at UNC to realize the flub and it will take us 5 years. God help that it is no more than 5 years.

  14. 61Packer 01/12/2011 at 10:28 PM #

    chop, you feel about like me, but tonight I got some temporary relief. I watched Georgia Tech play, and that helped ease the pain (they lost by 25 at Clemson). Misery loves company.

    Somebody should collect bets on who’ll last longer- Low or Hewitt.

  15. GameOfInches 01/12/2011 at 10:28 PM #

    To salvage what’s left of this season, the identity of this basketball team must change. None of our remaining opponents play a particularly physical game. If we can turn ourselves into a gang of mean thugs on the court, then we definately can recover.

    How many times did we knock a BC player down?

    Talent + Desire = Success
    Talent + Indifference = Failure

  16. Texpack 01/12/2011 at 10:39 PM #

    My 24 hour cooling off period is over so I can post again. The comments about seeing the same mistakes over and over again really hit home with me. I’d be really shocked if Sidney Lowe recovers. You just can’t win the Indy 500 with a 1968 VW Beetle and that’s what we’re trying to do.

    My stomach knotted up when I saw Javi head to the scorer’s table with under 4 minutes to go. “I hope he’s going to leave Harrow in”, was the thought that passed through my mind.

  17. Wolfy__79 01/12/2011 at 10:40 PM #

    i’ve seen desire from these kids, especially during syracuse and early with gtown!

  18. Wolfy__79 01/12/2011 at 10:43 PM #

    with all the talk of harrow vs javi. to this point i think sidney has done well with bringing ryan along. he’s not just playing but managing the game. i think its time for him to start! i think javi will still have some important moments still this season, but the time is now.

  19. GameOfInches 01/12/2011 at 11:01 PM #

    I didn’t see desire late in the Gtown game or in the Wisc game!

    This team knows what’s on the line. Start winning or your coach is GONE. I will pull for the Wolfpack no matter what, but I am not proud of this team

    There are players on this team that do go all out (CJL), but as a whole, we just don’t do enough.

  20. Wolfy__79 01/12/2011 at 11:13 PM #

    early georgetown.. the hoyas maturity on the floor took over. ^however i fully agree. PACK!

  21. Whiteshoes67 01/13/2011 at 12:01 AM #

    No. As in H…E…double hockey stick…NO! Sadly, i think the ship will continue to sink into depths I’ve not yet imagined. Foresee it only getting worse this year. My top 3, in no particular order, are Lon Kruger, Greg Marshall, Sean Miller. Kruger would absolutely throttle the ACC with the talent we have.

  22. tjfoose1 01/13/2011 at 2:55 AM #

    Desire isn’t something you should have to look for. It should be a given.. A bare minimum starting point. Desire should be inseparable from breathing and the uniform.

    The mere fact that it is a subject of discussion should be another clue.

  23. russwuf 01/13/2011 at 4:32 AM #

    well all you have to do is look at Calipari and KY last season…loaded with FRESHMEN and talented at that with prolly big egos .HOWEVER he molded them into a cohesive TEAM …Sid has now a bunch of highly sought after and recruited freshmen…but they are playing like they are still playing Rinky Dink High . Even the upperclassmen have regressed..cue Javi.. I mean Wood seems to be better offensively..still lacks some toughen up D skills…clearly Trace is the best player for us on the court…And WTF was wrong with CJ? was he sick?..gimpy leg?…he was on a roll in the Wake game but Sid kept his butt on the pine ?????
    Clearly BC was spreading the floor opening up the offense where they could just blow by us and get jams and layups….or a kick back out for a 3….why was our bigs playing so faaaarrrrrrr out from the basket?
    If we don’t start winning LIKE soon….I would not even give Sid the rest of the season to destroy but let him go and get Towe to cover til the end..at least he did coach UNO decently….

  24. Oldwolf 01/13/2011 at 9:14 AM #

    watching the duke/fsu game last night, I was enjoying watching the hustle, passion and desire of both teams. especially on defense. I was wishing that we would play with that kind of intenseness. We do not play with such intenseness.

  25. tuckerdorm1983 01/13/2011 at 10:01 AM #

    I agree Oldwolf, but they could if they wanted to.

    I would play the following lineup

    Wood
    Smith
    Leslie
    Harrow
    Brown

    and then stick a hot poker up their rears or buy a cattle prod. Say what you will about the “General” Bobby “I saw a lady on the other side of the court that needed a chair” Knight, but he got the most out of his players.

    Now thats motivation!!!
    Anyway these five should get 35 mins per game and only come out when they are winded or hurt. Stop the endless changing players and looking for matchups. That means Howell, CJ Williams, Painter and Javi get a few mins each.

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