Benchmark Sidney Lowe: Can He Recover?

10-11 Basketball Coaches Debbie Yow General NCS Basketball110

If nothing else, this should be therapeutic for NC State fans after last night’s 75-66 loss to Boston College.

Sidney Lowe finds himself in mid-season at 11-5.  This isn’t necessarily a terrible record (well… it is sort of) unless you consider that our largest winning streak has been a 5-win streak over teams with mostly RPIs of above 200.  Actually, as of last night, the average RPI of teams we have defeated has been 240.9.  Let that soak in for a second.  Now consider that in the ACC, only one team has an RPI worse than 240.9: Wake Forest.  Funny how that works out.  I fully recognize that RPI rankings have poor fidelity until later in the season (please see some of the outstanding work by VaWolf82), but this does give us an indicator of the type of opponent NC State is capable of defeating.

Sidney Lowe, to date, has an overall winning percentage of 0.550.  In NC State’s history, only one coach has coached worse than Lowe, Les Robinson at 0.443. Note that there is only a 20% difference between Les’ figures compared to Lowe’s.  Similarly, Sidney Lowe’s ACC winning percentage is 0.318.  Again, all ACC coaches, besides Les, have risen above this mark.  Here is a rough table of coaches, their overall winning percentages and ACC winning percentages.

Coach

Since 1953

Win Percentage
Years Number Overall ACC
Everett Case 1953 1963 11 0.682 0.601
Press Maravich 1964 1965 2 0.736 0.679
Norm Sloan 1966 1979 14 0.682 0.572
Jim Valvano 1980 1989 10 0.628 0.507
Les Robinson 1990 1995 6 0.443 0.298
Herb Sendek 1996 2005 10 0.591 0.450
Sidney Lowe 2006 2010 5 0.550 0.318

Note that previous to the circumstances surrounding 1990, NC State was always at least 50% or better over ACC foes.  Since then, NC State as struggled to keep up.  Sidney Lowe isn’t so much an isolated problem as much as he is a continuation of non-competitiveness against our conference rivals since the departure of Jimmy Valvano.

The problems with Lowe’s squads have been legion, but so far fans have been willing to give Lowe the benefit of the doubt for multiple seasons.

Year 1:

His first season was, all things considered, not too shabby.  He was a new coach with “decent” players (a few great ones) and managed to finish at 20-16, make the ACC Championship game, and making the NIT Quarter Finals.  While this was a step down from the previous year, it was expected and to an extent, excusable.  The one aspect of Lowe’s first season that many did not consider is the easy schedule that was grandfathered in by years of scheduling powder puffs in the 200+ range of the RPI rankings.  If we had played Year 1 with Year 5’s schedule, I doubt NC State would have found itself with 20 wins, in the NIT, but probably still would have made the ACC championship game (since NC State already had no momentum going into March).
Potential Excuse: It’s his first season.  He’s never been an NCAA head coach before so you can’t expect him to come in and win a National Championship on day one.

Year 2:

Sidney Lowe managed only 15-16 (4-12) and was eliminated in the first round of the ACC tournament.  Again, many people excused this due to the personality issues facing the team with a new coach and abrasive situations between Lowe and Grant.  The conference record was only 1 win short of the previous season, so again my question would be how much ease of OOC schedule played into Year 1’s favor (as well as coaching carry-over from the previous coach).
Potential Excuse: He’s still learning and having to manage personalities that were recruited by a different coach.  When there is strife inside the team, it’s always going to be hard to win.  Lowe is also having to completely change the team from the Sendek-esqe offense to a faster-paced style of ball.  Give it time.

Year 3:

Widely regarded as a complete Charlie Foxtrot season, Sidney managed only one win better overall (16-14) and finished with his career conference high (6-10).  Consider that Sendek’s career high record was 11-5 (Thank you Julius Hodge).  Robinson’s was 8-6, Valvano’s was 10-4, and Norm Sloan, in 2 years, went 12-0.  This represents one of the statistical categories in which Lowe holds the lead for worst coach in NC State history.
Potential Excuse: Hey, he had a bad season.  This is his third year of experience as an NCAA coach and he made some mistakes.  The previous seasons weren’t REALLY his fault, so we should give him this season as a mulligan.

Year 4:

Lowe’s fourth season saw glimmers of hope.  For the second time, Lowe was able to win 20 games, but finished the regular season one ACC win short of his previous year.  So what do you take from that?  NC State “ran off” Sendek because he couldn’t beat ACC opponents above that 50% mark the way all of his pre-1990 predecessors had, so it is difficult to say whether this is a good sign that Lowe was improving to win 20 games a season, or a bad sign that he still couldn’t produce in the ACC.  What is even more concerning is that after an impressive win over National Champions DUKE, Lowe went on a 1-7 losing spree only managing to defeat an OOC opponent, NC Central.  Sidney Lowe, in his fourth season with by-in-large “his players” could achieve a 20 win season, but without making any noise in the ACC.

For reference, when Sendek had at least 20 wins or more, he was tacking on around 8.5 conference wins a season (slightly better than 50%).  Again, we (rightfully) “pushed out” Sendek for not being able to breech a mediocre level of ACC success, compared to his predecessors, and Lowe has yet to even achieve 50% mediocrity.

Luckily, Sid had his 20 win season and a top rated recruiting class coming in.  With Lee Fowler still in charge and a top-rated recruiting class coming in, Lowe’s job was safe for another year.  Interestingly enough, many fans said we should keep Sid after his fourth year if for no other reason than ensuring Fowler couldn’t lead another botched head coaching search, similar to the one in 2006 that found Sidney Lowe in the first place.
Potential Excuse: Look, we got 20 wins and are heading in the right direction.  We have AMAZING talent coming in.  Plus, do you REALLY want Fowler looking for another coach?  Let’s give him the benefit of the doubt and give him another year.

Year 5:

You’re living it.  Let’s not relive the terrible defeats and minor, teasing victories of 2010-2011 in blog form.

The bottom line is not that Sidney Lowe can’t still salvage this season into something respectable, but only to point out that Sidney Lowe has a long, long way to go until he can be called anything close to a respectable coach. Still remaining on NC State’s schedule (last night’s RPI in parenthesis) are 2xFSU (90), 2xDuke (5), Miami (33), 2xClemson (113), 2xUNC (20), VT (62), WFU (255), Maryland (115), GT (175), and UVA (143).

Consider that NC State is 0-5 against teams with RPIs of 50 or better and there are only 9 remaining games against teams with RPIs of more than 50.  If this is any indication of how the season will go, NC State could still go 20-10 (10-6), finish in the top 4 or 5 in the ACC and maybe even hit the NCAA bubble depending on how the ACC tournament goes.  That’s not necessarily an unrealistic scenario.  Optimistic, sure, not in no way unrealistic. Furthermore, Lowe’s previous 20 win seasons include wins gained during the ACC tournament.  This means Lowe could have a 21 or 22 win season in 2010-2011.

NCAA Or Not, Can Lowe REALLY Recover?
Then again, consider that Sidney Lowe is this deep into a hole of under-achievement.  Can Sidney Lowe really recover?  I’ll bring up our previous coach, Herb Sendek, one more time to make a very valid point that all State Fans should ask themselves.  Sendek had NC State competing for 3rd in the ACC pretty regularly, winning just under 50% in the ACC on average, and making occasional forays into to the top 25.  NC State was so displeased in Herb’s plateau (inability to punch into being once against a dominating program) that we pushed him away to look for a coach with more potential.  So here is the question: Is Sidney Lowe’s goal to simply not be the worst coach in NC State history and/or to reach the fanbase’s bare minimums each season, or is it to do what Sendek couldn’t do and make NC State a perennial top 25 program once again? If Lowe is able to reach the realistic goal of making it on the NCAA bubble and getting a low tournament seed, I can very easily see Lowe raising his stats to the point that he regularly competes for 3rd in the ACC and has fairly regular 20-win seasons.  I believe Lowe can reach Herb’s level of success.  However, given his inconsistent performance and extremely questionable coaching decisions (why the Hell is Harrow getting yanked out of games when he’s hot?!), do NC State fans, and by extension Debbie Yow, honestly think that Sidney Lowe, 0.550 overall and 0.318 in the ACC, can bring NC State to the top of the national heap again? Even if we manage our way into the NCAAT this season, as most people said was Lowe’s minimum requirement this season, does that necessarily mean Lowe is the coach for NC State, knowing what “a coach for NC State” should be expected to do?

I leave you with some of the insightful words of Julius Hodge after last night’s loss to BC:

Tweets from Julius Hodge following 75-66 loss to BC, 1/11/2011

About NCStatePride

***ABOUT THE AUTHOR: NCStatePride has been writing for StateFansNation.com since 2010 and is a 2009 graduate of the College of Engineering.

10-11 Basketball Coaches Debbie Yow General NCS Basketball

110 Responses to Benchmark Sidney Lowe: Can He Recover?

  1. MattN 01/12/2011 at 3:52 PM #

    I submit that Les Robinson was NOT a worse coach than Sidney. Les had to resort to giving a scholarship to Adam Freakin’ Fletcher! The players Sidney has right now are on a similar level to what Les had his first year, and Les won 20 games in a MUCH more difficult ACC. I bet Les would win 23 games with this crew. He was not a horrible coach. He had nothing to work with.

  2. bradleyb123 01/12/2011 at 3:57 PM #

    I have been a supporter of Sidney in that I think he deserves the rest of THIS year (and this year ONLY) to get something done. I still think the opportunity is there for him to do that, if he will.

    But there are some things that bother me about Sidney. I feel like he just wants to look and sound like a “cool customer” on TV and on the radio. He always dresses sharp. It seems to me that he values all that over actually coaching. Now is the time for him to be a fiery coach and kick their “buts” into gear. But he rarely seems angry like a tough coach needs to be. I agree with someone’s previous comment about Sidney not being able to coach these young kids. It does seem that way.

    I still support him through March, and will re-evaluate him then. I don’t expect him to win me over now, but I am willing to give him that chance. If he doesn’t, I’ll join everyone else who is already calling for his job now.

    What worries me is that we’ll replace him with some other unproven commodity and just continue toiling. If I thought we’d bring in a proven guy, I’d be more likely to support replacing him. I hope I’m wrong about this, but this seems to be our M.O. for quite a long time. Even Valvano was an unproven guy when we hired him, I believe. He just turned out good for us (other than the whole NCAA probe thing). We brought in a good football coach in TOB. But I think that was because HE chose us. Maybe we’ll get as lucky in basketball. But I doubt it.

  3. rtpack24 01/12/2011 at 3:57 PM #

    Conrad, yes it is the coach’s fault when the players do not execute. Now if a player misses a shot or has a turnover that is on the player. However, when your senoir point guard comes out of a timeout and neither he or anyone on the floor is aware of the shot clock that is on the coach. Coaching is the ability to get the players to do what you want. At the end of the game we were trying to press and no one seemed to know what to do, Wood actually showed CJ who to guard, when your team looks lost on both ends of the floor that is on the coach. When the headcoach constantly whistles at his players on every trip now the floor(offens or defens) and tries to show them where to line up for a simple out of bounds play, that is on the coach. That is why you practice everyday so players know what to do in a game.

  4. bradleyb123 01/12/2011 at 3:57 PM #

    Whatever happens between now and the end of the season, I do feel good that we have an AD that will make the right call on Sid.

  5. Gene 01/12/2011 at 4:00 PM #

    “we can hold on to some of the recruits that are committed to us right now. ”

    Read the pre-game write-ups on BC. They lost their entire 2010 recruiting class due to transfers. The new coach inked a couple of guys late in the recruiting period.

    For what its worth, I think there’s no reason to hold onto a coach for a recruiting class. A good coach can rebuild a lost recruiting class very quickly.

  6. Wolfy__79 01/12/2011 at 4:02 PM #

    However to address if Sidney Lowe can Recover?

    Yes, and this is the season to do it and by no means is this and argument for or against.

    Keys:
    Navigate to a 10+ win regular season.
    -our acc sched is one that would require both coaching and talent
    (bc=’s georgetown btw)
    2 of 4 from Duke/unx
    ACC Championship Game Appearance
    ACC Championship
    Reaching Sweet Sixteen or Higher

    This would convince me that he knows what he is doing.. and provide consistent successful results. the acc may be down this year but so are many other conferences, hosting some elite teams but none that much more than the ACC. some have peaked very early in the year.

  7. tjfoose1 01/12/2011 at 4:02 PM #

    “… at least I feel better having Yow at the helm than Fowler. My hope is that if Sid is gone we end up with a top notch coach that can recruit.”

    Exactly. That is why I feel confident in saying Sid is gone. IMO, it should be clear to anyone with experience in either teaching, coaching, or sports admin/mgmt that Sidney does not have the skill set required to produce the expected/requried results for which he was hired to deliver.

    It’s that simple.

    PS: And what BJD said!

  8. Rochester 01/12/2011 at 4:08 PM #

    If 10-6 is the minimum to get in the NCAAT (and it might really be 11-5), then last night was a costly blown opportunity, simple as that. We now need to go 9-5 the rest of the way. Where are the 9 wins coming from if we can’t beat BC? Honestly, take Reggie Jackson away and they don’t have anyone who scares you. They should have kicked the crap out of us last night, but they went through almost as bad a scoring drought once they got up by 11 as we did. Defensively, we gave Reggie a season’s worth of highlight plays by not guarding him, and we left so many 3-shooters wide open I lost track.

    I have paid for ESPN Full Court every year for the last decade so I could watch all of our games up here in Rochester. I’m saving my money this year. I’ll settle for the games on ESPN/2/U and Fox Sunday Night, etc., and figure if I miss a win or two that I could only see on Full Court it will be more than balanced out by the frustrating losses I miss. I’ll re-up next year when we get someone in who actually knows how to coach.

    I’d love to be wrong, but then again, I would have loved to have been wrong the past four years. Enough already.

  9. sbas2 01/12/2011 at 4:09 PM #

    i think Lowe’s second year was derailed by Degand’s injury. absent that injury, State would have done much better despite the chemistry problem. winning can overcome such problems. otherwise i agree with the assessment of the article.
    with regard to Robinson, i have always thought he has be given a bum rap due to the men’s basketball increased academic requirements imposed by the administration after Valvano was fired. after recruiting the number one player for the conference, Chuck Konegay, and Todd Fuller, he was hurt when after the first semester of the 92-93 season, Konegay and Donnie Seal were held to be academically ineligible. i might add that a significant junior college recruit whose name i can not remember joined this group. i think i am correct in stating that under NCAA rules each would have remained eligible. Konegay trasferred to Villanova because he was embarrased.
    on the other hand, Robinson could have had Joe Smith, but chose to throw his eggs in one basket going after McGinnis and Stackhouse. then neither Robinson nor any of his staff were present when Wally (Wonder) Szczerbiak and his parents toured the campus to see if Wally wanted to attend State. i am writing these Robinson facts from memory, but i think they are pretty much correct.

  10. Gene 01/12/2011 at 4:14 PM #

    “What worries me is that we’ll replace him with some other unproven commodity and just continue toiling. ”

    I doubt any new coach will be AS unproven in the college ranks, as Lowe was. There will be some sort of track record as a HC at some level of collegiate ball.

  11. NCStatePride 01/12/2011 at 4:15 PM #

    I hear and understand the Les Robinson arguments. I don’t care. The numbers are what go down in history and the poor NC State record throughout his tenure, not a bunch of footnotes stating WHY he didn’t win. If so, TOB would have already filled his quota of footnotes over the past seasons before this year.

    Sidney Lowe is, numerically, not the worst coach we’ve had, but that is a mute point. Sidney Lowe isn’t the leader we need long term. Simple as that.

  12. tjfoose1 01/12/2011 at 4:18 PM #

    “…i still think a lights out performance for the remainder or even the second half of the season would not support that but our chances of doing that are very slim.”

    You’re missing the point, at least the one I’m making. That is not going to happen, because Sid does not have the skill set to produce good, consistent, repeated results.

    I’m not mad at Sid, in fact, I feel for him. He loves NC State, he is a proven winner. He is one of us. Simple fact is though, he’s not qualified to do the job he was hired to do. It’s not his fault.

    Being mad at Sid is like being mad at your son for not being 6’5″, 260 lbs, with a 4.3 40, a kick a$$ shuttle time (whatever time that would be), parlayed with a sweet outside jump and a 99 mph fastball.

    Not only do you, of course, love your son… but it would be unfair to everyone to have unrealistic expectations, constantly putting him in a position of guaranteed failure.

    DY will make the move.

  13. Wulfpack 01/12/2011 at 4:24 PM #

    “What worries me is that we’ll replace him with some other unproven commodity and just continue toiling.”

    I agree with everything you say, except this point. I am not afraid of this at all. In fact, I welcome it. I see other programs, some with nowhere the history and resources of our program, hiring “unproven” coaches each year and they build solid programs.

    I also think Debbie Yow knows EXACTLY what kind of coach she wants. She will attract that person and she will ink that person.

    Ultimately, this job is all about a match to be made, not a prize to be won. We know that after the last search. I trust Yow to find the right person. That’s what she is ultmately being paid to do. And she’s very good at what she does.

  14. Gowolves 01/12/2011 at 4:29 PM #

    I hate to say I told you so but “I told you so”. I commented before the season that Lowe did not have a track record of getting through to young adults. To get them to play hard and team basketball. If the previos comments related to poor practices and “I am out to get mine” mentallity then it only fuels what has happened all through his tenure aa head coach.

    He has to go!

  15. bradleyb123 01/12/2011 at 4:31 PM #

    For what its worth, I think there’s no reason to hold onto a coach for a recruiting class. A good coach can rebuild a lost recruiting class very quickly.

    I don’t think we should hold onto Sidney THIS year for that reason. He got his great recruiting class last year, and I do think it was worth giving Sidney this fifth season with those recruits to see what he could do. It may be a gamble that we’ll end up losing. But if we had let Sid go, lost those recruits (Zo, Harrow and CJL), and brought in another experiment, we’d probably just be in the same boat we’re in now, only without those recruits.

    But we can’t keep holding onto Sidney JUST BECAUSE he has another batch of recruits in the making. Last year, I think it was OK to do that. Not any more. Sid has until March as far as I’m concerned. His job is his to keep. Right now we’re 1-1 in the ACC. It’s too soon to say he should go. And last night’s loss wasn’t a “blame Sidney” loss. BC couldn’t miss with about 3 minutes left in the game, and they took it from us. Nor was the Wake game some kind of epiphany moment for Sidney. We beat the Deacs bad, but they are a bad team. The jury is still out, although I don’t really think Sidney will do enough to keep his job. But I’m still giving him that chance.

  16. Packfan28 01/12/2011 at 4:35 PM #

    “rtpack24, And that is Lowe fault instead of the player failing to execute and focus…. right ? Wrong !”

    Conrad, this and other sites are littered with 5 years worth of reasons why 5 years worth of losing are not Sidney’s fault. At some point you just have to say that’s enough. Clearly you’re not there yet, but I’ve been there for quite a while, and my side of the room is starting to get crowded.

  17. Baccapacker 01/12/2011 at 5:05 PM #

    I think my comment about keeping the recruits that we have committed right now was taken the wrong way. Let me clear that up, I absolutely do not believe that a coach should be kept for recruits, I merely meant that I hope if/when the coaching change occurs that we don’t lose some of the talent we have to transfers and I would like to be able to hold on to the guys we have coming in because I think we have one or two pretty good ones coming in the next two years. With that said, I think we have much better people in charge now than we did last time to make suere that it would be a smooth process. I have almost 100% confidence that D.Y. will make the right move and get the right man.

  18. Prowling Woofie 01/12/2011 at 5:23 PM #

    ^ To your point, if a suitable upgrade is brought in, it may make the recruits more apt to stay than leave, knowing they will be playing with a winner. Who that suitable upgrade will be is unknown, but surely the players and recruits will listen and consider the opportunities before jumping ship.

  19. Baccapacker 01/12/2011 at 5:31 PM #

    Oh yeah, I agree. The right guy shouldn’t have a problem with keeping guys around. Problem last time was we hired a no name and had a buffoon leading the search and it was part of that same buffoon’s job to talk to players and recruits and keep them interested. The search dragging on and on didn’t help matters either. I have no doubt, however, that things would go much smoother this time around.

  20. Gene 01/12/2011 at 5:48 PM #

    “And last night’s loss wasn’t a “blame Sidney” loss. BC couldn’t miss with about 3 minutes left in the game, and they took it from us. ”

    The guy who is coaching B.C. built Cornell up by making them a crazy accurate three point shooting team. He’s done the same thing with B.C. this year.

    They not only take a lot of three’s, but make very high percentage of those shots. There’s no excuse to leave a person open for a three point shot against a team this coach is coaching and expect them to miss. Leaving Raji open for the go ahead three was inexcusable.

    The players should’ve been better prepared and made sure they always switched on screens or whatever they had to do to get a hand in a 3 pt. shooters face. Jackson’s three, the next posession, was a brain fart by a freshman and not the coach’s fault, but otherwise, we did a bad job at the end of the game.

    As far as subbing Javi in, the Achilles heal of this team is a lack of leadership on the floor by the upperclassmen. Javi and CJW tend to disappear and don’t provide much in the way of guaranteed stability, when they are in there.

    Puts a lot of pressure on freshman and sophomores to make good decisions all the time.

    “The right guy shouldn’t have a problem with keeping guys around.”

    Creen lost a bunch of players, when Samson left Indiana and he took over. I don’t view keeping players as a prerequisite for the next coach. It’d be nice if he did, but a good coach can rebuild his roster.

  21. MatSci94 01/12/2011 at 6:04 PM #

    “Harrow is going to be a liability on defense all season, are you just going to bench him permanently?”

    For no real reason, I found myself listening to Gold/Ovies this afternoon (usually don’t like them, but it was on and I couldn’t change it) and they had a very fair (on both sides) discussion with Hodge about the team. At one point this was brought up (benching Harrow for a defensive goof) and Ovies’ response was “Noone on this team really plays defense, why is anyone on the court then?” Gold tried to respond, but couldn’t really come up with something more than “well, you have to put 5 on the court”…which seems to sum up where we are very nicely.

  22. haze 01/12/2011 at 6:07 PM #

    As for next coach stuff, the right match is good point but it’s good to recognize that “right match” doesn’t necessarily mean a big name. There is quality in the ranks of smaller programs (Valvano, K), on the benches at big programs (Roy to Kansas) and in the head coaches offices at good but not great programs (e.g. TOB). Overrated guys are at every level too!!! It’s an AD’s job to have a finger on the pulse to identify the right guys for NC State and to recruit/hire them in a reasonable manner (timing, money, publicity).

    Tough job and often even the right outcome isn’t appreciated for at the outset.

  23. Wolfy__79 01/12/2011 at 6:26 PM #

    yeah, my key’s were to highlight how that might be accomplished. with a look at the schedule and having one win.

    wins in order of appearance: @fsu, miami, @clemson, vt, @wake, clemson, @maryland, gtech, and @uva.

    ^this would equal 10 w’s for us and isn’t easy but not the worst of odds. this doesn’t even consider unc games, i didn’t even count them even though i think we will have one there. duke will not run the table and will likely have 2 losses.

  24. pack44fan 01/12/2011 at 7:09 PM #

    If there is coaching change at the end of the year, I feel confident it will be done in a professional, confidential manner, unlike the 3 ring circus that occurred with Fowler leading the charge. Has anyone noticed the quiet sound from the AD’s office regarding the basketball program?

  25. OwenDorm83 01/12/2011 at 7:27 PM #

    The lack of fire/initiative/leadership by the players really concerns me. While I hoped to see that, what I actually see is laziness & going through the motions.

    When he came, I envisioned Sid as one who could motivate the kids, but I just don’t see that happening.

    He had one of the highest basketball IQs of any player I can recall at NCSU. Yet he is unable to transfer that to the players.

    I hate it, but it’s looking like time for a change unless something big happens to turn it around.

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