Benchmark Sidney Lowe: Can He Recover?

10-11 Basketball Coaches Debbie Yow General NCS Basketball110

If nothing else, this should be therapeutic for NC State fans after last night’s 75-66 loss to Boston College.

Sidney Lowe finds himself in mid-season at 11-5.  This isn’t necessarily a terrible record (well… it is sort of) unless you consider that our largest winning streak has been a 5-win streak over teams with mostly RPIs of above 200.  Actually, as of last night, the average RPI of teams we have defeated has been 240.9.  Let that soak in for a second.  Now consider that in the ACC, only one team has an RPI worse than 240.9: Wake Forest.  Funny how that works out.  I fully recognize that RPI rankings have poor fidelity until later in the season (please see some of the outstanding work by VaWolf82), but this does give us an indicator of the type of opponent NC State is capable of defeating.

Sidney Lowe, to date, has an overall winning percentage of 0.550.  In NC State’s history, only one coach has coached worse than Lowe, Les Robinson at 0.443. Note that there is only a 20% difference between Les’ figures compared to Lowe’s.  Similarly, Sidney Lowe’s ACC winning percentage is 0.318.  Again, all ACC coaches, besides Les, have risen above this mark.  Here is a rough table of coaches, their overall winning percentages and ACC winning percentages.

Coach

Since 1953

Win Percentage
Years Number Overall ACC
Everett Case 1953 1963 11 0.682 0.601
Press Maravich 1964 1965 2 0.736 0.679
Norm Sloan 1966 1979 14 0.682 0.572
Jim Valvano 1980 1989 10 0.628 0.507
Les Robinson 1990 1995 6 0.443 0.298
Herb Sendek 1996 2005 10 0.591 0.450
Sidney Lowe 2006 2010 5 0.550 0.318

Note that previous to the circumstances surrounding 1990, NC State was always at least 50% or better over ACC foes.  Since then, NC State as struggled to keep up.  Sidney Lowe isn’t so much an isolated problem as much as he is a continuation of non-competitiveness against our conference rivals since the departure of Jimmy Valvano.

The problems with Lowe’s squads have been legion, but so far fans have been willing to give Lowe the benefit of the doubt for multiple seasons.

Year 1:

His first season was, all things considered, not too shabby.  He was a new coach with “decent” players (a few great ones) and managed to finish at 20-16, make the ACC Championship game, and making the NIT Quarter Finals.  While this was a step down from the previous year, it was expected and to an extent, excusable.  The one aspect of Lowe’s first season that many did not consider is the easy schedule that was grandfathered in by years of scheduling powder puffs in the 200+ range of the RPI rankings.  If we had played Year 1 with Year 5’s schedule, I doubt NC State would have found itself with 20 wins, in the NIT, but probably still would have made the ACC championship game (since NC State already had no momentum going into March).
Potential Excuse: It’s his first season.  He’s never been an NCAA head coach before so you can’t expect him to come in and win a National Championship on day one.

Year 2:

Sidney Lowe managed only 15-16 (4-12) and was eliminated in the first round of the ACC tournament.  Again, many people excused this due to the personality issues facing the team with a new coach and abrasive situations between Lowe and Grant.  The conference record was only 1 win short of the previous season, so again my question would be how much ease of OOC schedule played into Year 1’s favor (as well as coaching carry-over from the previous coach).
Potential Excuse: He’s still learning and having to manage personalities that were recruited by a different coach.  When there is strife inside the team, it’s always going to be hard to win.  Lowe is also having to completely change the team from the Sendek-esqe offense to a faster-paced style of ball.  Give it time.

Year 3:

Widely regarded as a complete Charlie Foxtrot season, Sidney managed only one win better overall (16-14) and finished with his career conference high (6-10).  Consider that Sendek’s career high record was 11-5 (Thank you Julius Hodge).  Robinson’s was 8-6, Valvano’s was 10-4, and Norm Sloan, in 2 years, went 12-0.  This represents one of the statistical categories in which Lowe holds the lead for worst coach in NC State history.
Potential Excuse: Hey, he had a bad season.  This is his third year of experience as an NCAA coach and he made some mistakes.  The previous seasons weren’t REALLY his fault, so we should give him this season as a mulligan.

Year 4:

Lowe’s fourth season saw glimmers of hope.  For the second time, Lowe was able to win 20 games, but finished the regular season one ACC win short of his previous year.  So what do you take from that?  NC State “ran off” Sendek because he couldn’t beat ACC opponents above that 50% mark the way all of his pre-1990 predecessors had, so it is difficult to say whether this is a good sign that Lowe was improving to win 20 games a season, or a bad sign that he still couldn’t produce in the ACC.  What is even more concerning is that after an impressive win over National Champions DUKE, Lowe went on a 1-7 losing spree only managing to defeat an OOC opponent, NC Central.  Sidney Lowe, in his fourth season with by-in-large “his players” could achieve a 20 win season, but without making any noise in the ACC.

For reference, when Sendek had at least 20 wins or more, he was tacking on around 8.5 conference wins a season (slightly better than 50%).  Again, we (rightfully) “pushed out” Sendek for not being able to breech a mediocre level of ACC success, compared to his predecessors, and Lowe has yet to even achieve 50% mediocrity.

Luckily, Sid had his 20 win season and a top rated recruiting class coming in.  With Lee Fowler still in charge and a top-rated recruiting class coming in, Lowe’s job was safe for another year.  Interestingly enough, many fans said we should keep Sid after his fourth year if for no other reason than ensuring Fowler couldn’t lead another botched head coaching search, similar to the one in 2006 that found Sidney Lowe in the first place.
Potential Excuse: Look, we got 20 wins and are heading in the right direction.  We have AMAZING talent coming in.  Plus, do you REALLY want Fowler looking for another coach?  Let’s give him the benefit of the doubt and give him another year.

Year 5:

You’re living it.  Let’s not relive the terrible defeats and minor, teasing victories of 2010-2011 in blog form.

The bottom line is not that Sidney Lowe can’t still salvage this season into something respectable, but only to point out that Sidney Lowe has a long, long way to go until he can be called anything close to a respectable coach. Still remaining on NC State’s schedule (last night’s RPI in parenthesis) are 2xFSU (90), 2xDuke (5), Miami (33), 2xClemson (113), 2xUNC (20), VT (62), WFU (255), Maryland (115), GT (175), and UVA (143).

Consider that NC State is 0-5 against teams with RPIs of 50 or better and there are only 9 remaining games against teams with RPIs of more than 50.  If this is any indication of how the season will go, NC State could still go 20-10 (10-6), finish in the top 4 or 5 in the ACC and maybe even hit the NCAA bubble depending on how the ACC tournament goes.  That’s not necessarily an unrealistic scenario.  Optimistic, sure, not in no way unrealistic. Furthermore, Lowe’s previous 20 win seasons include wins gained during the ACC tournament.  This means Lowe could have a 21 or 22 win season in 2010-2011.

NCAA Or Not, Can Lowe REALLY Recover?
Then again, consider that Sidney Lowe is this deep into a hole of under-achievement.  Can Sidney Lowe really recover?  I’ll bring up our previous coach, Herb Sendek, one more time to make a very valid point that all State Fans should ask themselves.  Sendek had NC State competing for 3rd in the ACC pretty regularly, winning just under 50% in the ACC on average, and making occasional forays into to the top 25.  NC State was so displeased in Herb’s plateau (inability to punch into being once against a dominating program) that we pushed him away to look for a coach with more potential.  So here is the question: Is Sidney Lowe’s goal to simply not be the worst coach in NC State history and/or to reach the fanbase’s bare minimums each season, or is it to do what Sendek couldn’t do and make NC State a perennial top 25 program once again? If Lowe is able to reach the realistic goal of making it on the NCAA bubble and getting a low tournament seed, I can very easily see Lowe raising his stats to the point that he regularly competes for 3rd in the ACC and has fairly regular 20-win seasons.  I believe Lowe can reach Herb’s level of success.  However, given his inconsistent performance and extremely questionable coaching decisions (why the Hell is Harrow getting yanked out of games when he’s hot?!), do NC State fans, and by extension Debbie Yow, honestly think that Sidney Lowe, 0.550 overall and 0.318 in the ACC, can bring NC State to the top of the national heap again? Even if we manage our way into the NCAAT this season, as most people said was Lowe’s minimum requirement this season, does that necessarily mean Lowe is the coach for NC State, knowing what “a coach for NC State” should be expected to do?

I leave you with some of the insightful words of Julius Hodge after last night’s loss to BC:

Tweets from Julius Hodge following 75-66 loss to BC, 1/11/2011

About NCStatePride

***ABOUT THE AUTHOR: NCStatePride has been writing for StateFansNation.com since 2010 and is a 2009 graduate of the College of Engineering.

10-11 Basketball Coaches Debbie Yow General NCS Basketball

110 Responses to Benchmark Sidney Lowe: Can He Recover?

  1. NCStatePride 01/12/2011 at 1:24 PM #

    Those of you making excuses have missed the point entirely. You claim Sid should be given credit because it’s only halfway through the season. What a terrible statement. It would be more accurate to state “Sid is only halfway through his fifth season”. This isn’t an analysis based on Lowe for half a season, it’s based on Lowe for half a season plus 4 years of the same.

  2. 61Packer 01/12/2011 at 1:30 PM #

    @LRM- yes, I am aware that last night’s game was in the Conte Center.

    And being an LTR seatholder, I’m aware of the increasing number of empty seats in the RBC Center with each passing month. Even with all the advertisements for RBC tickets, against Duke of all teams, they still can’t come close to filling the place. That’s red flag #1.

  3. BJD95 01/12/2011 at 1:36 PM #

    Yes, advertising single game tickets against Duke is a HUGE red flag. It was funny, too – the same e-mail directed fans to the wrong network for last night’s game (ACC network instead of ESPN-U), a mistake only corrected about 45 minutes before tip-off.

    Perhaps they should have saved the casual viewer the agony of knowing where to watch last night’s “action.”

  4. bigwolfpacker 01/12/2011 at 1:47 PM #

    What the hell was Sid doing by subbing in Javi for Harrow with under 4 mins to go? That lost the game. They couldnt guard Harrow and Sid takes him out. How do you defend that?

  5. 87stategrad 01/12/2011 at 1:48 PM #

    Great post, but it actually depressed me to read it. I would hope that “making the NCAA Tournament” would not be the only requirement to keep the “status quo”. Sometimes you have to look at the overall picture and ask the hard questions. Just like Maryland did with Fridgen.

  6. Wolfy__79 01/12/2011 at 1:48 PM #

    BJD95 if what you think is true about Yow then it is end of discussion. i still think a lights out performance for the remainder or even the second half of the season would not support that but our chances of doing that are very slim. they/we will make a run at some point and most likely in the ACCT, but considering the cumulative results through his time at hc, that would have to include a ACCT Championship. And then a strong run in the NCAA’s. Supporting that there has to be 2 of 4 w’s from unc & duke or a sweep of one. we played arguably the 2nd to 4th best team in the conference last night and lost so my simple numbers point to a new hc!

  7. JeremyH 01/12/2011 at 1:51 PM #

    it is just me or was JG much better last year? I know he wasn’t a world beater but his three-point shot was solid and he was able to make things happen occasionally. He has been a liability this year. Also, it is part on the coaches to remind the players of the shot clock situation.

  8. highstick 01/12/2011 at 1:51 PM #

    As much as I appreciated Towe’s impact on the National Championship team, he is not an answer at all….If he was, he’d have had a “sit down” with Sidney long before now, but I’ll promise you that has not happened..

  9. wolfbuff 01/12/2011 at 1:57 PM #

    I’m not going to state whether or not he should be fired, as that is DY’s decision. However, my opinion is that I have seen enough to gauge his effectiveness as a coach, and I don’t feel that there has been much, if any, growth; nor does the potential to do so seem to be there. The teams are routinely not motivated to start playing at the beginning of the game, play no defense at any point in the game, do not fight for rebounds ( with the exception of Leslie), suffer frequent scoring droughts because they do not execute, and have not definable offense. OK, good, we know how to create match-up problems. But otherwise, they look just as lost as the previous 4 teams when they’re not running a set play or are on a fast break. By the way, the fast break (when we can get a rebound) is one area where we have improved over the previous coach. I believe you play how you practice. So Gawd only knows what they’re doing there. There is still a chance the talent this year could jell and carry us to a respectable record despite the coaching. But I doubt it. My guess is he’s probably done.

  10. Pack Mentality 01/12/2011 at 2:12 PM #

    I love that Hodge is saying the same thing as a lot of us are thinking. Very critical of Lowe. Actually, if you are not very critical of Lowe I’d have to say that you don’t really care about wins and losses, you care about not hurting his feelings.

  11. StateFans 01/12/2011 at 2:15 PM #

    NCSTATEPRIDE,

    Looks like excellent work! Won’t be able to read through it all until later tonight.

    One quick thought — Herb Sendek’s tenure at NC State was literally two different tenures comprised of (1) his first five years and then (2) his second five years.

    Since you are already doing the work…you should consider showing Herb in almost two different tranches.

    I can’t wait to see how Debbie deals with 5 years of Sidney that will look very similar to the first 5 years of Herb.

  12. wufpup76 01/12/2011 at 2:20 PM #

    Short answer: No.

    Sid Lowe teams clearly lack the wherewithal or toughness to win consistently. The end of the game last night was an example of how to LOSE a game down the stretch. Last night was a golden opportunity to win a tight game on the road and give the players (and hell, even the staff) some much needed confidence that they can win these types of games on the road and set a tone for the rest of the conference games. Games against similar or lesser opponents that quite frankly you have to have if you want to make the NCAA’s and finish in the top 4 of your conference.

    Moreover, for the first 12 minutes of the game BC looked quicker and was much tougher and ready to play. Our guys looked like their feet were in cement blocks. Talent disparity? Nullified and nonexistent.

    I love Sid, but he’s had 5 years now to show what he can do. This IS one of the worst ACC’s ever. If you can’t take advantage of this …

    Amazingly he still has a chance to prove everyone wrong (or provide a fluke) with plenty of games left and an ACC tournament opportunity. Who wants to take bets on that stuff though?

    God bless you Sid for everything you’ve done for the Pack, including taking one for the team when Fowler was here. But there is NO validity or evidence provided that you can get this done. You’ve still got some chances though.

  13. Plz2BStateFan 01/12/2011 at 2:22 PM #

    I have become somewhat detached from NC State Basketball. I no longer have the intense frustration of Lee Fowler to fuel my drive to complain about Lowe. That and a good football season.

    It appears that Sidney Lowe just cant handle kids. He doesn’t know how to push the right buttons to get the most out of his players. I have no doubt of his X’s and O’s ability. But thats a small part of getting a team of kids to play at their best.

    This years team IS better than his past teams. But I don’t know if Lowe can control the talent and personalities well enough to flourish.

    Regardless, Yow (aka Galactis) is one hell of an AD and it doesn’t really matter if Lowe fails, the team will have enough talent, facilities, and fan base to attract a very good coach.

    Actually, the worst thing that can happen is that he does just barely enough to keep his job.

    I am not to worried about it either way. Our leadership will no longer allow us to fail like we have for so long. If Lowe succeeds, great, if he doesnt, well I always enjoy coaching searches.

  14. haze 01/12/2011 at 2:23 PM #

    Good, even article.

    I also agree that this has been a tough year so far due to Tracy’s injury and the outright youth of the team.

    Still, when things are hard to judge, I tend to go with the look test and they aren’t really passing that test. In particular, despite bursts of talent from the Fr’s and Sophs, this is not a very confident or resolute team. It takes relatively little adversity to get them to fold up the tent (see GT, UW, closing minutes at SU or BC). On offense, there are frequent plays for Wood and Tracy but there isn’t much of a scheme to generate consistent mid-range & perimeter shots for the team as a whole. As for upside, rebounding and defense ARE better as is the athleticism of the club. It’s not eye-popping improvement but it is an upgrade.

    I tend to think that, yes, the trajectory is upward and that Lowe is capable of Sendek-esque performance mid & long term. It’ll look different but it should get to that level soon given the talented underclassmen in the program today and reasonably strong recruiting skills. That said, I am equally confident that there isn’t enough fire or XO brilliance here to justify the belief that we will rise to be a consistent top-25 power with Sid.

    So, if Debbie’s goal is really to have championship potential (which most consistent top-25 clubs have in their up years), then I expect a stamp to come on the program this year. She’s a smart lady and will have to weigh the concern that next year should be an up year for the program (not unreasonable assumption) with the long-term implications of an up-year for Sid. In other words, an up-year pushing on a mediocre ceiling can lead to an additional 2 years of regression pain while you let momentum for change build again. By constrast, that up-year potential is a very nice situation for the installation of a new regime, the pitch being that the talent is here & young but we need a new energy/style to put us over the top. Will be interesting to see how Deb plays the hand.

  15. xphoenix87 01/12/2011 at 2:31 PM #

    I can’t fathom anyone who has watched these games mounting any kind of defense for Sid. It has nothing to do with wins and losses or Tracy’s injury or the schedule or whatever else you might want to talk, it’s about execution. If we succeed this year, it will be in spite of coaching, not because of it. Sid has proven in various ways that he’s not very good at this.

    1) Rotations: Sid has been making ridiculous playing time decisions since day 1, but it becomes more and more apparent with each passing game that he has no idea what his best lineups are. Harrow is the big example from this year, but it’s also almost incomprehensible that Richard Howell hasn’t gotten more than 17 mpg so far.

    2) Execution (especially out of time outs): I loved how the announcers last night talked about how frustrated Lowe must be when we got that shot clock violation. The clearly don’t realize that stuff like this has happened consistently every year. It ceases to be the players’ fault and becomes a coaching issue. Plays out of timeouts, in-game adjustments, simple fundamentals (boxing out, attacking a zone), all are things this team has struggled with under Lowe.

    3) Motivation: Again, if you’re consistently hearing stories about players not working hard in practice, complaining about PT and having bad chemistry, you stop blaming the immature kids, and start putting the blame on the coaching staff that doesn’t know how to manage them.

    I didn’t have a problem with Sid lasting this long since he’s clearly a good recruiter, we could hope he would adjust to the college game, and mostly because there was little chance that another Fowler-led coaching search was going to net us a good coach. That’s no longer the case. We have a good AD, and there’s talent on this team that will just be wasted if Lowe remains the coach.

  16. nycfan 01/12/2011 at 2:39 PM #

    One problem all ACC teams other than dook face this season is the low RPI ratings in the ACC itself. Whereas in years past, .500 in the ACC usually got you in the NCAA or atleast on tbe bubble and raised your RPI over your OOC results, last year and even more this year that is not tge case. The ACC is essentially a carbon copy of Conference USA at this point, and even 10-6 guaranties nothing (just ask VPI last season).

    What is State’s RPI now, 100 or so? With 8 more games against teams 90 or worse, and zero good wins outside the ACC, the fact is 10-6 in the ACC may not get you in the ACC, and what then vis-a-vis Lowe’s job?

    This also raises a spectre not addressed in the post but oft discussed when Sendeck was going to 5-straight NCAA tournies — the relative strength/weakness of the ACC during the tenures of the predecessors. Les arguably coached during the absolute toughest period of the ACC, when not only dook and UNC were going to the Final Four regularly, but WFU, UVa, Ga Tech, Umd and others had nationally relevant teams. The ACC was brutal then, as it was during most of the 60s, 70s and 80s. There were lull seasons in each decade but the idea that tge ACC might not get more tgan one or two, three teams tops in the NCAA would have been ludicrous (after expansion). So ther is a VERY reasonable argument that Robinson’s .298 ACC winning percentage is significantly more impressive than Lowe’s .318, when adjusted for the level of competition.

  17. PoppaJohn 01/12/2011 at 2:44 PM #

    Hey, let’s give Sid a little credit here.

    #1 – The team was playing horribly at the beginning of the game, Sid called a timeout and they climbed back in it against a good team. All at once they started playing our game. To me, that is evidence of coaching.

    Had we started the game as well as we played from that point on, it would have been a different result.

    #2 – While BC was firing those three daggers at the end, Tracy turned the ball over. Our best player. Can’t blame that on coaching.

    Sid’s always an easy target, but lets be fair.

    But, having said that, unless we see a miraculous finish to this year (Beat Duke & UNC, ACC Champ and/or Sweet 16 at least) I think we have to fire him. He’s had:
    a) Time to learn how to coach
    b) Got all his own players
    c) Got a point guard
    d) Has talent capable of competing on the national level – and playing the uptempo game he says he likes

    No excuses Sid! Significant success this year (not just NCAA berth), or be replaced. I think we have been plenty patient and fair. I don’t expect him to make it, but will tip my hat if he does.

  18. Packfan28 01/12/2011 at 2:44 PM #

    “Benchmark Sidney Lowe: Can He Recover?”

    No

    Let me expand on that:

    No f’ing way in hell.

  19. Baccapacker 01/12/2011 at 3:05 PM #

    I have to agree that one of the most frustrating parts about this season has to be the talent going to waste. Windows of opportunity don’t come around like this all the time and here we are with what is probably THE most talented team in recent memory with what I think is the best post player in the league and the season is being pissed away. It really sucks for fans around my age (24) because the closest thing to glory years we have experienced are the Rivers years and the Hodge years, which, let’s be honest, were good not great. I just hope that if we end up with a new coach at the end of the year that we don’t see a lot of this talent leave to transfers and we can hold on to some of the recruits that are committed to us right now. If we can land a good coach he has some excellent tools to work with, my only wish is that this team with Smith as a senior could have lived up to its potential.

  20. Wolf1975 01/12/2011 at 3:12 PM #

    I’m not ready to write off Sid yet, with TS being out for our biggest OOC games, I will let him slide for those, I feel that had we had TS, we wouldn’t have lost all those games. I do expect results coming into the heart of the ACC schedule. If not expect DY to pull the plug, and I believe she will produce a good pick.

  21. Conrad 01/12/2011 at 3:19 PM #

    rtpack24, And that is Lowe fault instead of the player failing to execute and focus…. right ? Wrong ! These are the kinds of problems that young and inexperience teams go through. Gons needs to be bench asap like the next game and for the season as a sub.

  22. JSRy2k 01/12/2011 at 3:26 PM #

    @xphoenix87
    What should we be most concerned with, W’s & L’s or the execution on the floor? I couldn’t agree more w/ your assertion:
    “I can’t fathom anyone who has watched these games mounting any kind of defense for Sid. It has nothing to do with wins and losses or Tracy’s injury or the schedule or whatever else…Sid has proven in various ways that he’s not very good at this…there’s talent on this team that will just be wasted if Lowe remains the coach.”
    Take a page from Duke: shooting comes and goes but the two things you can bust your butt at and do well night in and night our are defense and rebounding. Last night I saw far too many BC big men posting up our guards and far too little help D. Horrendous job of dealing w/ screens on our part, too many unnecessary switches resulting in mis-matches down low, and too little help D in the post, especially from our bigs. And this sort of poor defensive awareness leads to poor position, which leads to our poor rebounding. Just the same ol’ same ol’…

  23. waxhaw 01/12/2011 at 3:27 PM #

    If I was AD, it would be NCAA tournament or bust. I’d be quietly forming a short list right now.

  24. Wolfy__79 01/12/2011 at 3:47 PM #

    it’s too bad that lowe doesn’t have the killer instinct the fans have, including myself. i don’t see him saying before a game, i want to crush this team. or i don’t see that on the floor. if it were me, i may start like Sidney has, but at a point, i would get pissed/a chip on my shoulder and start dropping the hammer. i think sidney is holding back too much, i want to see him be more assertive. even if it is only for the remainder of the season. DY needs to approach him now and/or he needs to see the writing on the wall.

  25. bionicdoug 01/12/2011 at 3:50 PM #

    One thing that the article does not mention is how bad Herb was in his first five years and how well he did in his last five. I was a student during years 2-5 of Herb, and I remember Herb’s ACC record being similar to that of Sid’s. In fact, Herb’s 5th season was terrible. We had a losing record and didn’t win anything of note.

    My point is that Herb was every bit as terrible a coach as Sid his first 5 years but managed to figure things out. Many of Herb’s first recruits did not perform well just as many of Sid’s have not. It was that second wave (Hodge and co) that saved Herb, much like Harrow, Leslie, and Brown have the ability to save Sid. If we’re going to be fair, we have to give Sid year 6.

    One more note, I consider Les a good coach who was stuck in a bad situation. Les’s best quality: 5-7 versus the Heels; by far the best mark of any State coach in the last 40 years… look it up.

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