As NC State’s first true challenge of their ACC schedule, I thought it would be nice to see what we’re up against in Boston College this Tuesday at 9PM (broadcasted on ESPNU).
Record:
BC is current 2-0 in the conference with wins over Maryland (79-74) and Georgia Tech (86-75). Both of these wins are pretty solid, especially considering that Maryland’s only other ACC loss is to #1 Duke (71-64) in which they lead Duke as much as 6pt for much of the game (Duke’s largest lead was 8). The GT win was also impressive for BC not only in that they were able to bounce back from a home loss to Harvard (78-69), but also in that they were able to win with a FT% of 72% and 3PT% of 47%. NC State was able to match that against their albeit weaker WFU opponent (89% FT, 50% 3PT) last Saturday.
Players:
On paper, both teams’ leaders appear to match-up very well. NC State holds a slight edge in our rebounding (Leslie 7.9 to BC’s Raji 6.9) while BC holds the advantage in assists (Brown 3.5 to BC’s Jackson 1.3).Â
The thing to watch out for is how Lowe matches players up against Jackson. Jackson is a 6-3 (208lbs) guard who is definitely stockier than our guards, and from all indication, is the life of the team. He shoots 49% from behind the arch and is averaging 18.9 points a game. In 26 minutes of play, he scored 25 points against GT. Jackson leads BC in points scored, blocks, and steals. Many teams have super-stars (the stats of JJ Reddick and Duke come to mind), so before you can label a team a one-trick pony, you have to evaluate whether the statistical leader is simply the best of a cadre of amazingly talented players or if their star is the only thing shining the their night’s sky. Unfortunately for BC, the later seems to be the case here.
At forward, their star players are Corey Raji (6-6, 218lbs) and Joe Trapani (6-8, 232lbs). Together, they average for 26.4 points compared to Smith and Leslie’s 24.5 points. NC State does have a defensive advantage over BC. BC’s top three defensive players (Jackson, Raji, and Southern) average for 0.633BPG while as NC State’s top three defensive players (Paint, Leslie, and Vandenburg) average 1.200 BPG.
Offense vs Defense:
Boston College holds an edge over NC State offensively in FT, FG, and 3PT% (0.464, 0.709, 0.342 respectively to BC’s 0.489, 0.731, 0.408). As previously mentioned, NC State’s defensive leaders are solidly better than BC’s defensive leaders. Furthermore, NC State has 4 players with BPG of 0.8 or better and 3 other players averaging 0.4 BPG while BC only has 4 notable defensive players (the three mentioned above averaging 0.633 BPG and Cortney Dunn at 0.4 BPG).Â
In addition to blocking, NC State also out-rebounds BC 39-32 on average with relatively equal PPG (76-74 BC). This is likely due to NC State’s greater reliance on power under the hoop as compared to BC’s guard-centric scoring scheme. NC State also leads BC in steals average 7 SPG to BC’s 5. Given NC State’s youth and sometimes shotty execution, this could be a break for NC State.
Conclusion:
BC paints a picture of a team with an extraordinary guard with the help of a couple solid forwards. The problem with Boston College is that their defensive presence is lacking to say the least. Luckily, NC State has managed to do well when guard Brown is allowed to cut into the paint or big-men Leslie, Smith, Howell, and Painter are allowed to “And-1” some baskets under traffic. BC’s weak defense plays right into our most talented senior’s strong suits. Tracy Smith should have a good night.
The lack of rebounding by Boston College isn’t too significant, but note that while NC State holds an advantage over BC in rebounding, the average PPG are roughly the same. You can interpret this as NC State not making enough of our own shots (probably true) or as Boston College not making efficient use of their rebounds. NC State has shown great ability to make use of rebounds throughout the season, especially with threats like ZoBo.
Who will win? There is no reason why NC State can’t come away from this game with a solid, reputable ‘W’ against a respectable ACC team. This game is a good follow-up to the smashing of WFU last Saturday and allows NC State to play a team that is very talented (and dangerous if we aren’t careful), but has weaknesses that play up to NC State’s strengths. If NC State can contain BC guard Jackson and shut him down at the three, while establishing a presence under the rim, it may be a RED Tuesday night in Boston.
(Editorial: I am cautiously optimistic about this game, but NC State having the history it does, we should brace ourselves to see BC play like a top 5 team and have a record-setting night. NC State is in an amazingly fragile situation and every game should be treated with a quiet sureness about our gameplan and a humble confidence in what we can do when we focus. NC State CAN be great this season and I look forward to seeing if NC State can establish itself early in it’s ACC schedule.)
