BC Hoops Preview (Tues 1/11, 9PM)

10-11 Basketball General48

As NC State’s first true challenge of their ACC schedule, I thought it would be nice to see what we’re up against in Boston College this Tuesday at 9PM (broadcasted on ESPNU).

Record:
BC is current 2-0 in the conference with wins over Maryland (79-74) and Georgia Tech (86-75).  Both of these wins are pretty solid, especially considering that Maryland’s only other ACC loss is to #1 Duke (71-64) in which they lead Duke as much as 6pt for much of the game (Duke’s largest lead was 8).  The GT win was also impressive for BC not only in that they were able to bounce back from a home loss to Harvard (78-69), but also in that they were able to win with a FT% of 72% and 3PT% of 47%.  NC State was able to match that against their albeit weaker WFU opponent (89% FT, 50% 3PT) last Saturday.

Players:
On paper, both teams’ leaders appear to match-up very well.  NC State holds a slight edge in our rebounding (Leslie 7.9 to BC’s Raji 6.9) while BC holds the advantage in assists (Brown 3.5 to BC’s Jackson 1.3). 

The thing to watch out for is how Lowe matches players up against Jackson.  Jackson is a 6-3 (208lbs) guard who is definitely stockier than our guards, and from all indication, is the life of the team.  He shoots 49% from behind the arch and is averaging 18.9 points a game.  In 26 minutes of play, he scored 25 points against GT.  Jackson leads BC in points scored, blocks, and steals.  Many teams have super-stars (the stats of JJ Reddick and Duke come to mind), so before you can label a team a one-trick pony, you have to evaluate whether the statistical leader is simply the best of a cadre of amazingly talented players or if their star is the only thing shining the their night’s sky.  Unfortunately for BC, the later seems to be the case here.

At forward, their star players are Corey Raji (6-6, 218lbs) and Joe Trapani (6-8, 232lbs).  Together, they average for 26.4 points compared to Smith and Leslie’s 24.5 points.  NC State does have a defensive advantage over BC.  BC’s top three defensive players (Jackson, Raji, and Southern) average for 0.633BPG while as NC State’s top three defensive players (Paint, Leslie, and Vandenburg) average 1.200 BPG.

Offense vs Defense:
Boston College holds an edge over NC State offensively in FT, FG, and 3PT% (0.464, 0.709, 0.342 respectively to BC’s 0.489, 0.731, 0.408).  As previously mentioned, NC State’s defensive leaders are solidly better than BC’s defensive leaders.  Furthermore, NC State has 4 players with BPG of 0.8 or better and 3 other players averaging 0.4 BPG while BC only has 4 notable defensive players (the three mentioned above averaging 0.633 BPG and Cortney Dunn at 0.4 BPG). 

In addition to blocking, NC State also out-rebounds BC 39-32 on average with relatively equal PPG (76-74 BC).  This is likely due to NC State’s greater reliance on power under the hoop as compared to BC’s guard-centric scoring scheme.  NC State also leads BC in steals average 7 SPG to BC’s 5.  Given NC State’s youth and sometimes shotty execution, this could be a break for NC State.

Conclusion:
BC paints a picture of a team with an extraordinary guard with the help of a couple solid forwards.  The problem with Boston College is that their defensive presence is lacking to say the least.  Luckily, NC State has managed to do well when guard Brown is allowed to cut into the paint or big-men Leslie, Smith, Howell, and Painter are allowed to “And-1” some baskets under traffic.  BC’s weak defense plays right into our most talented senior’s strong suits.  Tracy Smith should have a good night.

The lack of rebounding by Boston College isn’t too significant, but note that while NC State holds an advantage over BC in rebounding, the average PPG are roughly the same.  You can interpret this as NC State not making enough of our own shots (probably true) or as Boston College not making efficient use of their rebounds.  NC State has shown great ability to make use of rebounds throughout the season, especially with threats like ZoBo.

Who will win? There is no reason why NC State can’t come away from this game with a solid, reputable ‘W’ against a respectable ACC team.  This game is a good follow-up to the smashing of WFU last Saturday and allows NC State to play a team that is very talented (and dangerous if we aren’t careful), but has weaknesses that play up to NC State’s strengths.  If NC State can contain BC guard Jackson and shut him down at the three, while establishing a presence under the rim, it may be a RED Tuesday night in Boston.

(Editorial: I am cautiously optimistic about this game, but NC State having the history it does, we should brace ourselves to see BC play like a top 5 team and have a record-setting night.  NC State is in an amazingly fragile situation and every game should be treated with a quiet sureness about our gameplan and a humble confidence in what we can do when we focus.  NC State CAN be great this season and I look forward to seeing if NC State can establish itself early in it’s ACC schedule.)

About NCStatePride

***ABOUT THE AUTHOR: NCStatePride has been writing for StateFansNation.com since 2010 and is a 2009 graduate of the College of Engineering.

10-11 Basketball General

48 Responses to BC Hoops Preview (Tues 1/11, 9PM)

  1. Rick 01/10/2011 at 10:48 AM #

    NC State can be great. I agree.
    But I have not seen that yet (I missed the Wake game which seems to be the pinnacle for the season so far). This team has the talent to be right behind Duke but has not played up to the potential yet.

  2. GoldenChain 01/10/2011 at 10:50 AM #

    I hope we don’t get off to a slow start. The last 3 halves are probably the best of the Lowe era for a variety of reasons. Two of them were 50 point halves which I believe that the up-tempo is what Sid was wanting to run from the beginning. We also had a great rebounding game which has been an issue for us for years.
    So I’m hopeful that the MO is with the Pack and we come away with the road win.

  3. Gene 01/10/2011 at 11:02 AM #

    I just feel this could be a big let down game. Team is on a high after a big win and may not react well to being challenged by better players than Wake Forest has.

    Things were easy on Saturday and if they get harder, will we have the maturity to react to stiffer competition and play better? I don’t know.

    So far this coaching staff hasn’t shown they can keep their teams playing hard game-in and game-out.

  4. NCStatePride 01/10/2011 at 11:09 AM #

    I would argue that the Wake game, while not against an impressive opponent, was executed at the level you are looking for, Rick. I’m not a huge believer either, but if you missed the Wake game, I highly… HIGHLY encourage you try to find the playback, especially of the second half. No joke, we really were “that good”. The question I posted on Twitter was “Is this a sign of things to come, or a flash in the pan?”

  5. Baccapacker 01/10/2011 at 11:15 AM #

    While I fully realize that Wake is a very weak team I was still impressed with most of what I saw from the Pack saturday. It was a fun team to watch and while some might argue, I feel like we’ve seen progress with this team lately. Some people have also said that we always see Lowe’s teams play a couple of games like that every year and I have to agree with that (the Duke game last year comes to mind, and the UNC game his first year) but I just can’t help but feel like this is a different team. I don’t feel like we’ve seen them play this well this early in the season so far under Lowe and we definitey have a talent upgrade this time. These next two games will answer some questions that we all have about this team so we will have to wait and see, but for now it is pretty fun to feel optomistic about this team.

  6. VaWolf82 01/10/2011 at 11:19 AM #

    The season doesn’t hinge on the BC game, but it is still a big game. A road win against a BC team that is getting a lot of positive press would clearly be State’s best win of the season.

  7. fullmoon1 01/10/2011 at 11:49 AM #

    I think Saturday’s game was Wake’s best performance this year. BC is a totally different animal. I don’t think there is a danger of looking past them. BC is always very physical and I think we have the size to withstand that this go round. I also think we will have a speed advantage at the point.

  8. StateFans 01/10/2011 at 12:12 PM #

    BC is Top 50 RPI. They’ve held their own. This is a HUGE GAME for us. Especially on the road. Both of these teams could be on the bubble in March and a head to head win here could go long, long distances.

  9. Thinkpack17 01/10/2011 at 12:13 PM #

    I will be there. They better not stink up the place.

  10. wufpup76 01/10/2011 at 12:43 PM #

    Thanks for putting this together. A humble suggestion 🙁 , turnovers per game by team would be a good stat to include if you do more game previews.

    State doesn’t really force turnovers, so a real premium is put on each offensive posession and defensive rebound. As an aside, once we had the game in hand Saturday against Wake I wouldn’t have minded seeing some press – just to see if we could create some mistakes and pull it out later as a surprise tactic in a game. We’ve certainly got the horses to do it. I know we pressed a couple of times in earlier games, but it wasn’t really that effective. Don’t get me wrong, this is still a ball-control, inside-out team; but the up-tempo play of the second half Saturday was encouraging.

    Perhaps the best thing about Saturday was that it seemed like an identity was established (yet here I am talking about throwing in a new wrinkle – genius).

    Anyway, I agree that this is a winnable game. BC has been solid though and we are on the road. This is the type of game we have to learn how to win in order to get to where we wanna go.

    “So far this coaching staff hasn’t shown they can keep their teams playing hard game-in and game-out.”

    ^This is truly what I’m looking for. There has to be a consistency.

    Go Pack

  11. Rufftown Wolf 01/10/2011 at 1:01 PM #

    I can’t help but think who is going to guard Jackson? It will have to be a group effort. On that same note who on BC is going to guard Tracy Smith? Nobody. Lesile should be a handful for Trapani as well. I like our chances.

  12. tvp1 01/10/2011 at 1:18 PM #

    I’m wondering how we’ll guard Raji. He’s one of the top 5 offensive rebounders in the country, which is nuts for a 6-6 small forward. I don’t think Wood has the strength to handle him.

    On the other hand, we should be able to absolutely pound these guys at the 4-5 spots. It will be interesting.

  13. coach13 01/10/2011 at 1:23 PM #

    I’ve tried, as ageneral rule, to avoid going into any basketball game with any expectations, good or bad. I’m not sure, as inconsistent this team has been, how anyone could start developing any. The range of realistic outcomes for NCState against the bulk of its ACC opponents is anywhere from blowing them out to getting blown out and anything in between. Neither of those extremes would shock me.

    That said, I will just watch and hopefully enjoy Wolfpack blowing out BC, a close game or tune out early due to a laughable effort.

  14. coach13 01/10/2011 at 1:24 PM #

    effort or performance

  15. Packfan28 01/10/2011 at 1:52 PM #

    I’m pretty confident Brown and Williams can do an effective job of shutting Jackson down.

  16. UnclePen 01/10/2011 at 1:57 PM #

    I want some hope to hold on to…Sid’s 21–44 conference record makes that a challenge

  17. hball57 01/10/2011 at 2:11 PM #

    A few comments on the story:

    First Georgia Tech has given us no proof that the are much better than Wake Forest. Georgia Tech lost to Kennesaw St.

    I don’t think “fragile” is fair to the team. Fragile might be fair to the fans psyche.

    I believe the depth of our front line is also a positive. If you include what Howell and Painter bring, the post players have a greater advantage.

    Hopefully the next month will allow some of my fellow State fans to believe in this team and stop living on history.

  18. Classof89 01/10/2011 at 2:12 PM #

    I think it’s silly to really take anything away from the pasting of Wake Forest. Wake is the worst ACC team I’ve seen since the Les Robinson 2-14 State team.

  19. graywolf 01/10/2011 at 2:30 PM #

    I think we will know a whole lot about Lowe, this teams character and the quality of players we have a little after 11 o’clock Tues. night. Good opponent and on the road will tell us a lot about the rest of the season.

    We shall see.

  20. Thinkpack17 01/10/2011 at 2:33 PM #

    ^Yes. But that team won 2 games, and no doubt Wake will play decent basketball some nights and get some ACC wins. One of those teams was not us on Saturday…take that away.

  21. NCStatePride 01/10/2011 at 2:43 PM #

    Whether we played Wake or not, our FTs were on 90% of the time and we were hitting it from behind the arch at just under 50% of the time. I’m not suggesting that we beat Wake therefore we are a beast of a team… I’m saying that the in-game stats faired well for NC State. Also, if we had beat Wake by 10pts, it would be one thing, but any ACC team being any other ACC team by 30 points is pretty sick. Also, Wake is better than 2-14, IMO. Not much, but a little better.

    Similarly, the significance of BC beating GT isn’t that they won, but how they won. They played a great game and Jackson looked phenominal.

  22. xphoenix87 01/10/2011 at 2:57 PM #

    Another view, via kenpom’s rate-adjusted statistics.

    Boston College is the most polarized team in the country in terms of offense/defense splits. They’re the 3rd most efficient offensive team in the nation, but they rank 211th defensively. They don’t get a lot of offensive rebounds (with the exception of Corey Raji), and they don’t get to the free throw line much, they just shoot really high percentages and rarely turn the ball over. Since we don’t force many turnovers, they key will simply be solid defense and keeping Raji off the glass (he’s 31st in the country in offensive rebound rate). We do have two capable defenders to put on Jackson (Brown and Wilson), so if they can make him work for his points, we’ve got a great chance. Joe Trapani is the 2nd leading scorer, but also by far the least efficient. We want to make him beat us.

    Offensively, we really should be able to go off on these guys. They don’t force turnovers, don’t rebound well, and don’t really force tough shots. The only thing they do well is not send people to the free throw line, which is not exactly a positive in this instance. Our bigs should have a field day. I’d love to see whoever Jackson is guarding (likely Williams or Brown) do a ton of off-the-ball cutting, just to make him work as much as possible.

    Keys to the game:

    Defensive:
    1) Close Out – especially on Jackson and Biko Paris
    2) Keep Raji off the glass
    3) Force Trapani to beat us

    Offensive:
    1) Good Shots – don’t expect a bail-out foul
    2) Crash The Glass – this is our big advantage
    3) Feed The Bigs – BC has no answer to Smith, Leslie and Howell

    I’m cautiously optimistic about this game. If we continually feed the post and keep unforced errors to a minimum, there’s no reason we can’t win this one.

  23. 61Packer 01/10/2011 at 3:53 PM #

    I know that having Tracy Smith back helps our confidence, but it doesn’t address our big weaknesses, namely poor team defense, horrible shot selection, mental lapses, turnovers, and a general lack of floor movement. You did NOT see those things last night when Maryland played at Duke, mainly because those two teams are well-coached. It’ll take a player far better than Smith to overcome the inept Wolfpack coaching we’ve seen for the past four seasons.

    We’ve won only 5 ACC road games in the past four seasons, and most of our many losses have been ugly, and have been excused away by moans that we don’t have any good players. Now, despite the hype about our new “talent” this season, the OOC losses don’t indicate any significant deviation from another ugly ACC season, especially on the road.

    If we don’t shoot well over 50% in these upcoming two games, it’ll be ugly.

  24. Thinkpack17 01/10/2011 at 4:47 PM #

    ^Did you watch the game last night? Duke had more mental lapses than I have seen in a long time. Turnovers too. Even more than the night we beat them. 3 point air balls, Nolan Smith dribbling the ball out to half court with 2 seconds on the shot clock, silly fouls. I’m sure Coach K is still yelling at them. And Maryland’s first 5 minutes was all one big mental lapse.

    Not saying they aren’t two well coached teams, but last night was not the best example of that. I will say they both played extremely hard…which we do NOT do night in and night out.

  25. Wolfy__79 01/10/2011 at 5:30 PM #

    noone is even mentioning the javi/harrow combo. as they go, so go the rest of the team. Sidney was quick to praise javi’s efforts saturday and imo keeping him focused for this all too important stretch.

    my keys:
    tracy will be the work horse for both howell and leslie to work off of. of courese lorenzo and wood should have a significant share of touches from the double downs to smith. most importantly i’m looking for a big night from javi to boost us past bc.

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