Why Skeptics of Tom O’Brien Should Feel Better

'10 Football Coaches NC State NCS Football Tom O'Brien39

Note: This article was written earlier, but compliments StateFanNation’s summary of the N&O article on Wolfpack’s patience with TOB.  This only serves as an explanation for why those skeptical of Tom O’Brien should feel more comfortable about his coaching tenure to date and is written from the perspective of a self-described Tom O’Brien critic.  It goes without saying that some of the opinionated comments in this article ‘may not represent the opinions of StateFansNation, it’s advertisers, or it’s affiliates’ or whatever the Hell it is that they state before the 700 Club comes on TV.

This is a personal appeal from NCStatePride to all of his fellow Tom O’Brien skeptics entering the 2010 season.

I feel like I have been one of the biggest critics of Tom O’Brien as of late (late meaning the 2010 season, not as in the last month).  After this season, he will have a 25% success rate at NC State (winning seasons as a part of entire tenure) and he has been given more excuses for his failings than Butch Davis has given for losing institutional control of his program.  Most people knew that this season TOB would “likely” have a winning season simply because he had all his players on the roster, few were on the DL, and his existing stars were more veteran than ever before.  He had to have a winning season.  What I did not expect was a “successful” season.  “Success” is not just barely making it to a bowl with a 7-5 win season, just like a 20-win season and/or 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament doesn’t mean you had a ‘successful’ basketball season.  Tom O’Brien has exceeded having merely a “winning” season and moved into the ranks of having a “successful” season, especially if he beat Maryland and either wins an ACC championship, lands a big win against a respected opponent during bowl season, or both.

Why Tom O’Brien’s One Successful Season (Of Four) Is Significant…
Looking at the numbers, let’s assume Tom O’Brien wins Saturday making his 2010 regular season finish at 9-3 (6-2).  It would be more than likely that NC State could end the season ranked for the first time since the 2002 season that ended in Rivers sending the Pack to a victory over Notre Dame in the Gater Bowl.  If Tom O’Brien accomplishes his 9-3 season, this would put his average record at 6.75-5 each season.  I understand this metric may be unconventional, but it gives a good layman’s metric for how good a coach performs in any notional future season.  For reference, Amato averaged 6.43-5 and Mike O’Cain averaged 5.86-6 over their tenures at NC State.  This means that after this one season, even though it is only one successful season out of four, O’Brien is already on record as more success, on average, than Amato or O’Cain.  Bear in mind that all of this is ignoring the fact that a 9-3(6-2) finish would place NC State in the ACC Championship Game that could project NC State to the Orange Bowl.  This would be a feat that O’Cain and Amato fell short of and would also further boost O’Brien’s averages.

The overall record is not the only indicator that elevates Tom O’Brien to higher levels than expected.  Using the same “average record” metric as before, Tom O’Brien’s 9-3 season would leave his average ACC record at 4.25-3.75 each season.  Compare that to Amato’s 3.57-4.43 and O’Cain’s 3.71-4.43 average seasonal records.  O’Brien is proving that not only can he win the overall season, but he can beat our in-conference opponents better than any coach in the past 20 years (or since 1993, at least) which has traditionally been a huge point of contention between the Wolfpack faithful and their coaches.

Another Concern: Tom O’Brien Will Not Follow 2010 Success with More Success…
Furthermore, my other concern, and reason for not retaining my belief in Tom O’Brien has been that next year he will likely lose both R. Wilson and N. Irving.  These are just two players, and NC State has other highly acclaimed players, but nothing is certain at this point.  I see how many games have been won, arguably, on the shoulders of these two individuals alone and have a hard time imagining a successful NC State lacking these two offensive and defensive assets.  Again, I must reconsider my previous stance.  After seeing how the Pack has played the past few games around Irving, and seeing how effective our offense is when Wilson is having, arguably, a “mediocre” game (for him), I realize that the entire body of work is strong enough to compensate and flex when skill is lacking in a given area.

Looking at the Carolina Game for Proof of Projected Success…
Let’s look at our victory over Carolina (Go To Hell, Douchebags!).  For NC State’s rushing game, Wilson gave NC State 10 carries for 26 yards, but our returning players, Washington and Greene, totalled for 21 carries for a total of 89 yards.  In our receiving game, of our top 6 receivers, only 1 is a 5-year player (Williams).  Spencer, Greene, Gentry, Bryan, and Davis will all be returning unless someone leaves for other reasons. Update: Even though all five of these players still technically have one more year of eligibility, it should be noted that both Spencer and Davis are true seniors.  Thanks to JEOH2 for the correction.

For that matter, special teams, which have been plagued for the past couple of years, have seen the emergence of T.J. Graham who continues to improve on kick-off and punt returns.  T.J. Graham has been a curse as much as a blessing for the Pack even since debuting with 23 yards per kick-off return and averaging 19 yards per kick-off return.  Saturday, he had 4 outstanding returns (7 for the day), two of which were thwarted due to illegal blocks in the back.  Despite the two early set-backs, Graham still finished with 188 yards of special team returns on the day.

Basically, Tom O’Brien is Getting Better…
My concern still lies on the future, but for the first time in a while, I can honestly say that I feel better about the future than I have in recent history.  While both Amato and O’Cain saw strong starts to their first 2-3 seasons followed by gradual decline, O’Brien appears to be poised to build on his 2010 successes.  At the very least, his overall averages prove that a direct comparison of O’Brien to Amato or O’Cain isn’t justified.  I still insist that O’Brien’s record pre-NC State is of little importance to our program.  If we hired freaking Bill Cowher to be our head coach and he went 3-8 for 5 years, he definitely wouldn’t be considered a great asset to our program simply because he has a super bowl ring.  What I want to see is success while wearing a red and white polo and a headset at the sidelines of Carter-Finley.  Has Tom O’Brien reached that point?  He’s apparently closer than his predecessors.

Again, I was the biggest opponent of Tom O’Brien at the beginning of this season, and while I can’t say having one good season out of four rationalizes being considered a “successful NC State coach”, I can say that he has gained something he hasn’t had since taking his post at NC State: a start.

About NCStatePride

***ABOUT THE AUTHOR: NCStatePride has been writing for StateFansNation.com since 2010 and is a 2009 graduate of the College of Engineering.

'10 Football Coaches NC State NCS Football Tom O'Brien

39 Responses to Why Skeptics of Tom O’Brien Should Feel Better

  1. coach13 11/24/2010 at 10:36 AM #

    Crisp will be a So on an otherwise all Jr line. I think our o-line is gonna be fine if not really good next year. An O’Brien staple.

    Again, expectations evolve. Even if he loses Saturday, TOB has 3-4 years of 8 win seasons left before we get restless again. 8-4 is a good season, not great, but good, and where I would have realistically expected us to be year 4, though it waS LOOKING DOBTFUL HEADED INTO THE YEAR.

    I personally am anxious to see Glennon next year. Don’t mean it as a knock on Wilson. I am anxious to have a QB that can see the entire field without scrambling to do so. You must admit Wilson has trouble seeing everyone sometimes and his height is an issue. If Glennon is as good as they projected coming outta highschool and he has now had 3 years of learning the system under TOB and Bible, he should be primed to step in and give us 2 great seasons. Alot of If’s I know but I am optimistic.

  2. ryebread 11/24/2010 at 11:30 AM #

    As much as I want TOB to succeed, I’ll believe it when I see it. It’s very, very, very NC State-like to position ourselves for something great and then choke it away.

    That’s what we’re facing with the trip to MD this weekend. How many times have they wrecked things for us? It’s crazy that many of our fans are assuming we win that game. We’d better be ready to play.

    TOB has never won games like this weekend when the conference title was really on the line. This thread is much more appropriate if we win the next two.

    Also, I don’t see any way we’re not regressing next year. With respect to the offense, hopes about improved running backs, OL and receiver play were the exact same things we said post Rivers. We’re losing one of the special QBs in our school’s history who has been an anchor at the position and we’re going to see some drop off. We also really haven’t given Glennon a lot of meaningful snaps this year, so he’s going to be learning. There’s absolutely no way (in my mind) that we don’t switch to an under center offense next season, so the OL, TEs and RBs are all going to be learning new things. On defense, we’re going to be without Nate, who has just excelled as the season has progressed.

    TOB is a 7-5 to 9-3 kind of coach and I’ll take that given our football history. Let’s just not make him out to be something he’s not.

  3. choppack1 11/24/2010 at 11:34 AM #

    “It seems to me he has changed RW to his offense more than he has changed the offense to RW. He has turned RW into a pocket passer. It is why he is not as good now as he was two years ago.”

    And this statement makes me think TOB, Inc- just can’t win.

    But – I’ll start off by saying that I agree w/ you that I think that RW is making a lot more mistakes than he did in his first few years.

    Now, regarding the “they changed RW more than RW changed them” statementment – let’s look at the coaches out there – you think Paul Johnson was going to abandon his offense for RW. Yea, I’m sure he’d stop running the option and go to the 4 wiedeouts you see w/ him.

    You think Pete Carrol would have switched to a spread?

    You have to appreciate what this staff did to accomodate Wilson’s skillset – and to keep Wilson healthy.

    RW missed almost of 1/3 of his season his 1st year. Maybe you haven’t noticed, but RW is NOT Michael Vick. He can be caught from behind by LBs or even fast DE’s. He’s very dangerous in space – but if when he’s not in space, he’s not nearly as slippery as other QBs. He’s not a 4.4 forty guy or even a 4.5 forty guy – he’s probably a 4.6 guy or 4.7 guy – and like most of those guys who are effective, he’s pretty damn smart.

    I think it’s also worth noting that RW really wanted to have that starting QB job his RS freshman year. He was at more the spring practices and I think he was more dedicated to football than he was the last 2 seasons. Heck, this year, he didn’t even play in the spring game.

    Maybe, just maybe – the increased focus on baseball combined w/ the increased tape that his opponents have to identify his tendencies – has resulted in a QB who is throwing more TD passes and completing a higher % of his passed, but is making more mistakes.

    And don’t read this as saying that RW was being selfish or that when he was playing football, he wasn’t totally focused on football..I’m just saying that I think as his focus on baseball has increased, his football may have suffered. It’s not a question of his dedication to his teammates – but rather how many hours are in a day.

  4. Rick 11/24/2010 at 11:57 AM #

    Could be
    I am not a football expert. I am just stating what it looks like to me.

  5. travelwolf 11/24/2010 at 12:26 PM #

    Good article. I believe that also important to look at HOW we lost in the past few years. I started being very positive on TOB last year when we lost several close games. I believe that we were blown out in only one game.

    Another sign of a good coach in my opinion is that the team improves as the season goes on. I believe that this has happened with TOB’s and Lowe’s teams (not so much) in general. On the other hand, Sendek’s and Amato’s teams usually reflected the opposite trend.

    Even if we lose every game for the rest of the year, TOB has had a great season which has shown considerable improvement from last year.

    I just hope we can recruit better!

  6. choppack1 11/24/2010 at 12:34 PM #

    Rick – looking at his stats – his overall QB rating THIS year is actually worse than it was his freshman year. (His second year was better all around than his first year). And I think his decision making is worse this year – and I’m really attributing this to the focus on baseball, possibly combined w/ Bible’s red-zone play calling:

    2008 – 133.95 (41st overall), 170.5 Per game, 54.5% completions. YPA – 7.1 – 70th total offense
    2009 – 147.77 (15th overall) 263.3 Per game, 59.3% completions, YPA – 8.0 – 19th total offense
    2010 – 131.18 (54th overall) 270.6 per game, 59.1% completions, YPA – 7.1 – 11th total offense

  7. NCStatePride 11/24/2010 at 1:02 PM #

    I’m mobile (cellphone), so I’ll keep this brief: those complaining, or vocalizing, that we are back-patting Tom O’Brien either can read or chose not to. This article does NOT compliment TOB for being an amazing coach. As stated, I still believe TOB is only a 25% successful coach at NC State to date regardless of excuses. The POINT of the article, however, is that statistically, this one successful season means that his career stats are already improved over Amato and O’Cain which, if nothing else, proves that Tom O’Brien has a starting point to being a successful NC State coach.

    Obviously next season is a. Big question mark. I address that. However, next year O’Brien doesn’t need to win an ACC CG to prove his worth; he only needs to prove that a ACC CG season (assuming a win on Saturday) can be followed by another successful season of 8 wins despite losing a star linebacker and QB. That would be hard evidence to disprove regarding his coaching ability.

  8. Rick 11/24/2010 at 1:21 PM #

    ” I’m really attributing this to the focus on baseball, possibly combined w/ Bible’s red-zone play calling:”

    I would mostly attribute it to them forcing him into being a pocket passer.
    His freshman year he seemed to do his most damage when he would scramble and create something. He does less of that now.

    I am sure the two you pointed out has something to do with it though

  9. primacyone 11/24/2010 at 1:53 PM #

    Damn. I really hope we can pull out a championship. We need one.

  10. choppack1 11/24/2010 at 2:20 PM #

    Heck – some of his worst INT’s and throws I’ve seen are when he gets out of the pocket. His pick six INT vs. GaTech was a scramble, his last INT vs. VaTech was on a scramble – and I think the red zone INT was on a scramble.

    I mean, if you are going to be a qb in a passing offense – you kind of have to be a pocket passer…you can do roll-outs and some misdirection stuff – but pocket prescence is a must if you’re going to be a good qb in most offenses.

  11. hball57 11/24/2010 at 8:42 PM #

    “” I’m really attributing this to the focus on baseball, possibly combined w/ Bible’s red-zone play calling:”

    I would mostly attribute it to them forcing him into being a pocket passer.
    His freshman year he seemed to do his most damage when he would scramble and create something. He does less of that now. ”

    While one one level i understand the dissecting of RW I think it does him a disservice. I believe his INTs have nothing to do with baseball or the coaching he has received. In fact the INTs are part of him becoming a better Quarterback. He sees more things and takes more chances. You can take all the easy throws and be TJ Yates with a 6-5 record. You can run all the time and get teams to hone in on you and kick a lot of FGs. Or you can use your players and become a better QB. He doesn’t throw the ball away as much, he tries to make plays. Teams are forced to change up their defenses more to try to confuse him, and some of the INTs were the result of that (Clemson, ECU). But QB rating be dammed, RW is a better QB now that he was as a freshman.

    I think we should be happy with TOB for one thing that has frustrated us over the last few years – his dogged determination. Unlike Amato, he didn’t change his focus or his plan. He didn’t run through coaches like water. He stuck to his guns because he has been through this before and he knew what was going to work.

    I don’t think we see a drop off next year. Yes we lose Irving, but we add Carter, the LB transfer from Syracuse who made the Big East rookie team last year. we lose Wilson but we gain Glennon who i think will do just fine at QB. Our OL gets better, our DBs get better, with Byrd and Smith returning. Our RBs get better with the year of experience and the improvement on the OL. We have experience and talent in our back up WRs. Now this is just my opinion, but I think this year, while it may not quiet the skeptics, should at least give TOB the trust that he just might know what he is doing.

  12. stealthsounds 11/25/2010 at 1:38 AM #

    First off, I’m in no way a blind follower of TOB but in most sports it takes a full pass through recruiting, 4 years, to see what a coach is going to be able to provide. On that note, I don’t think there is any reason to sell TOB down the river just yet. The main thing that I have noticed on this site, which I understand as a State fan, is the high degree of expectations we have. I have them too. But, a lot of the posts I have read are expecting TOB to generate a top ten team immediately. First off, give him a little time and secondly, if you said we could have three 8 win seasons in a row…compared to what we’ve had recently…I’d take it. Granted everyone always wants more, and eventually that would be nice but consistent 8, 9, 10 win seasons would be a great way to set up the foundation for a great program.

  13. packplantpath 11/26/2010 at 9:04 AM #

    We will almost certainly have a dropoff at the QB position. Glennon may be great, but will not be ready to light up the world. My hope is that an o-line finally coming together will make up for this and it will be no net loss to the offense.

  14. PapaJohn 11/26/2010 at 7:33 PM #

    I enjoyed reading this, and agree that we’re making progress. But I’d be a lot happier about this discussion if it were tomorrow night after a win, rather than today before a …. (?)

    If 24 hours from now TOB is the spawn of satan because we lost, then we haven’t really made any progress. A winning year is fantastic, but all the rest is more important. I think TOB is doing what we hired him to do , build a program. I think the players in the pipeline look pretty good. IF RW leaves, we’re probably in better shape than one would normally expect when losing a really good QB. And someone pointed out earlier that the OL was young and improving – one of the keys to long term success. A ‘good’ (rather than ‘great’) QB can get a lot done if he has time.
    I’d like to see more potential in the RB position, but maybe Greene is better than I think.

    And as someone said, getting into an annual 8 win groove wouldn’t be such a bad thing, as long as you occasionally can pull one or two more wins and get enough national attention to lure recruits.

    I re-read that and wonder why I’m happy to settle for less than competing for a national championship, which is what I expect in hoops. I guess it is just hard to imagine.

    BTW – I HATE MARYLAND!! As much as I despise the guys down the street, UM has caused us more misery than anyone lately, in football and hoops. Thank heavens Vasquez is gone! It would be SO NICE to beat these guys!!!!!

    GO PACK!!!! Coach, I don’t agree with every detail, but I think from the macro view, you are getting us where we want to be.

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