Why Skeptics of Tom O’Brien Should Feel Better

'10 Football Coaches NC State NCS Football Tom O'Brien39

Note: This article was written earlier, but compliments StateFanNation’s summary of the N&O article on Wolfpack’s patience with TOB.  This only serves as an explanation for why those skeptical of Tom O’Brien should feel more comfortable about his coaching tenure to date and is written from the perspective of a self-described Tom O’Brien critic.  It goes without saying that some of the opinionated comments in this article ‘may not represent the opinions of StateFansNation, it’s advertisers, or it’s affiliates’ or whatever the Hell it is that they state before the 700 Club comes on TV.

This is a personal appeal from NCStatePride to all of his fellow Tom O’Brien skeptics entering the 2010 season.

I feel like I have been one of the biggest critics of Tom O’Brien as of late (late meaning the 2010 season, not as in the last month).  After this season, he will have a 25% success rate at NC State (winning seasons as a part of entire tenure) and he has been given more excuses for his failings than Butch Davis has given for losing institutional control of his program.  Most people knew that this season TOB would “likely” have a winning season simply because he had all his players on the roster, few were on the DL, and his existing stars were more veteran than ever before.  He had to have a winning season.  What I did not expect was a “successful” season.  “Success” is not just barely making it to a bowl with a 7-5 win season, just like a 20-win season and/or 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament doesn’t mean you had a ‘successful’ basketball season.  Tom O’Brien has exceeded having merely a “winning” season and moved into the ranks of having a “successful” season, especially if he beat Maryland and either wins an ACC championship, lands a big win against a respected opponent during bowl season, or both.

Why Tom O’Brien’s One Successful Season (Of Four) Is Significant…
Looking at the numbers, let’s assume Tom O’Brien wins Saturday making his 2010 regular season finish at 9-3 (6-2).  It would be more than likely that NC State could end the season ranked for the first time since the 2002 season that ended in Rivers sending the Pack to a victory over Notre Dame in the Gater Bowl.  If Tom O’Brien accomplishes his 9-3 season, this would put his average record at 6.75-5 each season.  I understand this metric may be unconventional, but it gives a good layman’s metric for how good a coach performs in any notional future season.  For reference, Amato averaged 6.43-5 and Mike O’Cain averaged 5.86-6 over their tenures at NC State.  This means that after this one season, even though it is only one successful season out of four, O’Brien is already on record as more success, on average, than Amato or O’Cain.  Bear in mind that all of this is ignoring the fact that a 9-3(6-2) finish would place NC State in the ACC Championship Game that could project NC State to the Orange Bowl.  This would be a feat that O’Cain and Amato fell short of and would also further boost O’Brien’s averages.

The overall record is not the only indicator that elevates Tom O’Brien to higher levels than expected.  Using the same “average record” metric as before, Tom O’Brien’s 9-3 season would leave his average ACC record at 4.25-3.75 each season.  Compare that to Amato’s 3.57-4.43 and O’Cain’s 3.71-4.43 average seasonal records.  O’Brien is proving that not only can he win the overall season, but he can beat our in-conference opponents better than any coach in the past 20 years (or since 1993, at least) which has traditionally been a huge point of contention between the Wolfpack faithful and their coaches.

Another Concern: Tom O’Brien Will Not Follow 2010 Success with More Success…
Furthermore, my other concern, and reason for not retaining my belief in Tom O’Brien has been that next year he will likely lose both R. Wilson and N. Irving.  These are just two players, and NC State has other highly acclaimed players, but nothing is certain at this point.  I see how many games have been won, arguably, on the shoulders of these two individuals alone and have a hard time imagining a successful NC State lacking these two offensive and defensive assets.  Again, I must reconsider my previous stance.  After seeing how the Pack has played the past few games around Irving, and seeing how effective our offense is when Wilson is having, arguably, a “mediocre” game (for him), I realize that the entire body of work is strong enough to compensate and flex when skill is lacking in a given area.

Looking at the Carolina Game for Proof of Projected Success…
Let’s look at our victory over Carolina (Go To Hell, Douchebags!).  For NC State’s rushing game, Wilson gave NC State 10 carries for 26 yards, but our returning players, Washington and Greene, totalled for 21 carries for a total of 89 yards.  In our receiving game, of our top 6 receivers, only 1 is a 5-year player (Williams).  Spencer, Greene, Gentry, Bryan, and Davis will all be returning unless someone leaves for other reasons. Update: Even though all five of these players still technically have one more year of eligibility, it should be noted that both Spencer and Davis are true seniors.  Thanks to JEOH2 for the correction.

For that matter, special teams, which have been plagued for the past couple of years, have seen the emergence of T.J. Graham who continues to improve on kick-off and punt returns.  T.J. Graham has been a curse as much as a blessing for the Pack even since debuting with 23 yards per kick-off return and averaging 19 yards per kick-off return.  Saturday, he had 4 outstanding returns (7 for the day), two of which were thwarted due to illegal blocks in the back.  Despite the two early set-backs, Graham still finished with 188 yards of special team returns on the day.

Basically, Tom O’Brien is Getting Better…
My concern still lies on the future, but for the first time in a while, I can honestly say that I feel better about the future than I have in recent history.  While both Amato and O’Cain saw strong starts to their first 2-3 seasons followed by gradual decline, O’Brien appears to be poised to build on his 2010 successes.  At the very least, his overall averages prove that a direct comparison of O’Brien to Amato or O’Cain isn’t justified.  I still insist that O’Brien’s record pre-NC State is of little importance to our program.  If we hired freaking Bill Cowher to be our head coach and he went 3-8 for 5 years, he definitely wouldn’t be considered a great asset to our program simply because he has a super bowl ring.  What I want to see is success while wearing a red and white polo and a headset at the sidelines of Carter-Finley.  Has Tom O’Brien reached that point?  He’s apparently closer than his predecessors.

Again, I was the biggest opponent of Tom O’Brien at the beginning of this season, and while I can’t say having one good season out of four rationalizes being considered a “successful NC State coach”, I can say that he has gained something he hasn’t had since taking his post at NC State: a start.

About NCStatePride

***ABOUT THE AUTHOR: NCStatePride has been writing for StateFansNation.com since 2010 and is a 2009 graduate of the College of Engineering.

'10 Football Coaches NC State NCS Football Tom O'Brien

39 Responses to Why Skeptics of Tom O’Brien Should Feel Better

  1. DividedWeFall 11/23/2010 at 10:30 PM #

    My only fears are that we either run O’Brien off (prematurely), or Notre Dame comes in and scoops him up. I mean come on, “Kelly” is irish but “O’Brien” is hella-irish. I’m not sayin, I’m just sayin…

    If we do lose O’Brien, fortunately Bill Cowher is still hangin’ around Raleigh.

  2. NCStatePride 11/23/2010 at 10:46 PM #

    I get a feeling from Tom O’Brien’s comments during his weekly show that he is finally starting to enjoy his stay at NC State. Remember, he left BC over a lack of attention, administrative support, and fan appreciation. I think he is loving what he is getting this season from NC State fans and the university. Furthermore, I assume O’Brien has no delusions that any fanbase would be happy with the past 3 year’s experience.

  3. Plz2BStateFan 11/23/2010 at 10:59 PM #

    We all need to make sure we get the most out of the next 5 years. Its going to be an era only seen once or twice before in NC State football history.

  4. highstick 11/23/2010 at 10:59 PM #

    There are many things that I like about TOB, but there are many things that absolutely confuse me about his coaching abilities…I’m not falling into a “love fest” until that second set of concerns are alleviated.

    It’s not the “can’t win the big one” albatross cause better coaches than TOB have been hung with that tag. But, coaching moves and some of the ways he’s publicly blamed players really bother me. I’m not opposed to that if he’s doing what Spurrier does to Garcia(which is challenging him to do better), but if it’s diverting heat from himself, it makes me very uncomfortable.

    I DO like the way he throws jabs at the Tarholes though…

  5. JEOH2 11/23/2010 at 11:01 PM #

    I dont want to be “that guy” but aren’t Spencer and Davis true Seniors this year…so they will be gone…?

    NCStatePride: Correct. Technically, they have one more year of eligibility so I guess I was lumping true senior status into “leaving for other reasons” (i.e. reasons other than not being NCAA eligible). I made the correction to the post above. Thank you!

  6. bTHEredterror 11/23/2010 at 11:04 PM #

    /They are, I’ll be “that guy” with you. But the overall theme isn’t less accurate due to that small inaccuracy. Peyton has looked promising and Jay Smith and Steven Howard have been markedly improved. Palmer and Creecy should make an immediate impact as well.

    I suspect we will look more like TOB’s BC teams next year with a solid O-line and more running game. But no shortage of outside weapons, just not the same level of experience early on. Bryan could test the waters, but would be wise to try his senior year on for draft status. With a taller QB, and a younger one to boot, he could have a monster year.

  7. graywolf 11/23/2010 at 11:08 PM #

    My biggest fear for next year is an inexperienced QB and lack of experience at wideout. Loses at LB may hurt again from experience and leadership. Otherwise I think we will be fine.

    TOB has proven his worth this year. Lots of prognosticators are saying that its Wilson’s team and we will end up just like the year after Rivers left……I don’t see it as being that bad but we will find out.

  8. rky 11/23/2010 at 11:18 PM #

    I enjoy hearing him talk the talk. Love beating EweNX-CHeat. I think he did a good job this season. Now, as I’ve said many times, win something significant and I’ll be impressed.

  9. NCStatePride 11/23/2010 at 11:33 PM #

    With regards to the Post-Rivers/Post-Wilson comparison, it may or may not be useful to know that Jay Davis’ first season he was shooting at a 55% completion rate. Glennon, in the Wake and Boston College games, was a 66% passer. Jay Davis was also only 60% his last year playing for the Wolfpack.

  10. codebrown 11/23/2010 at 11:36 PM #

    Winning cures all doubts. Just win baby!

    Btw, Jay Davis’s name should never be mentioned on this forum ever again. He still gives me nightmares.

  11. Astral Rain 11/23/2010 at 11:37 PM #

    I’d expect a regression to the mean next year- but a winning season is likely, maybe semi-successful. I won’t complain about another 8 win season, at least not until I get used to it.

  12. tractor57 11/23/2010 at 11:56 PM #

    In some ways I don’t think we knew how bare the cupboard was at the beginning of the TOB era. There were issues and maybe are still some but I think the post Wilson era will be better than the post Rivers era. Rivers was a talent few recognized out of HS.
    The following QB’s were highly rated out of HS and maybe they were not as good as promised or maybe the lack of a credible OL affected them greatly – either matters not they didn’t meet expectations.
    The OL seems to be in better shape so maybe a classic drop back QB is just what is needed following RW. If so Glennon seems to be primed.

    Given the past few years I can stand a few 8 win seasons.

  13. PackerInRussia 11/24/2010 at 4:24 AM #

    My future concerns: O-line improvement. Wilson has had to make something out of nothing by running away from defenders too often for my comfort. Sometimes on a 3 or 4 man rush. I know that there is more than one way to skin a cat and running out of the pocket isn’t the only way to avoid on-coming defenders, but hopefully Glennon has some fancy footwork or the line protects better earlier in games. There are times when Wilson has had all day in the pocket, so this isn’t all the time, but it happens. Where they’ve done really well is towards the end the game, it seems that they’re just getting started when the opposing D is wearing down. Hence the success of Greene at the end of the Carolina game. BTW, I loved how they threw him in there with fresh legs and let him light up the D.

    Questions about Glennon.
    The thing I’d point to as a sign of hope for Glennon is not his high school ranking, but O’Brien and Bible’s ability to groom a QB over several years and have him ready to come in and play at a top level.

    What’s the line on Wilson’s return, anyway? I’d assumed that he was gone, but then some talk about a possible return.

  14. papackman 11/24/2010 at 6:54 AM #

    This back slapping for O’Brien is just a bit premature don’t you think. We still have a game to win and one, possibly two post season games to win. TOB wins out, I’ll be impressed and shut my mouth. But one successful season only makes a coaching staff successful one season. Dominance and continuity make universities successful. It is realistic to think this team could be undefeated. The three losses were pissed away mostly due to coaching. When NC State is the feared opponent and the team to beat in the ACC, I’ll be impressed by the coaching staff. We may be on our way….but that won’t be answered until next season.

  15. Scooter 11/24/2010 at 8:02 AM #

    One point that looks good for the future and differs from the Amato era was visible during the Carolina game — we only had one senior starting on the O-Line. The other four were sophmores. If you want to look for success, the first place to go is to the lines. Here’s to hoping!

  16. Wulfpack 11/24/2010 at 8:33 AM #

    Looking at the sason holistically, obviously I am very pleased. We have a chance to play in the ACC Championship with a win in our last regular season game. That is amazing. I would have NEVER predicted that back in August. So we are clearly headed in the right direction.

    I still do not know how we lost to ECU. And I still think the Clemson decision was piss poor on any level. Those are the two black eyes to the season. Hopefully Fridge and Maryland does not provide a third.

    I’ll be cheering like hell come 3:30 on Saturday. This is our moment (and TOB’s) to take a major step as a program. If we make that step, I’ll be even more on the TOB bandwagon.

    I will say, with all the mess going on over at UNC, and Butch Davis’ lack of control of his team even on gameday, I am very grateful that we have TOB. He personifies NC State. We all wanted him to win a little more. This year, he’s winning a lot more. Let’s hope he has 2 (or 3) more left in him.

  17. acc 10k 11/24/2010 at 9:21 AM #

    Scooter nailed it – four sophomore starters on O-line; two huge freshmen (Jones and Crisp) on the depth chart; only two seniors on the depth chart at all (one starter, one backup) all the way across including TE. This is probably the group that benefits most from maturity, which suggests it will be great in two years.
    Also at DB, where there is already improvement from last year’s disaster: No seniors on the depth chart at all; three TRUE freshmen, including one (Amerson) starting. Again, a place where we are probably much better going forward.
    We lose some really important people, but in college FB you always lose important people – a team with no good seniors has a real problem. Losing a QB (if that happens) is pretty much by definition the new guy hasn’t had many reps, but Glennon looks to be about as low-risk as you could ask for in the situation. At LB, I could see Manning stepping up and producing the way Nate has in his last two seasons, so it’s really Manning’s spot you are trying to fill.

    One thing I was thinking about this morning is that we’ve had this breakthrough season against the toughest possible ACC schedule – we did not get Duke or UVa. Anyone know what’s on next year’s schedule?

  18. primacyone 11/24/2010 at 9:51 AM #

    One season does make a significant difference.

    If TOB had another loosing season this year, he would statsitacllaly be the worst or second worse coach of all time at NCSU.

    IF the beats Maryland and VT, he will probably be the highest paid coach of all time at NCSU come next year.

    Get ready to open up your pocket books. Based on his UNC bashing over the last few days, I’m expecting him to be seeking a pretty dramatic pay raise.

    I have been a BIG TOB Critic over the last couple of years. I can honestly say that when we hired him, and thought it was a good hire, but not a great hire. My opinion went way downhill from there. Nice guy, but no balls. He has turned me around this year. Not only for his perfermance on the field, but his nature of the field. He really seems to be one of us now – a true wolfpacker. Either that, are he really is playing us for a big fat raise.

  19. Rick 11/24/2010 at 9:58 AM #

    I am not ready to change my opinion on TOB yet.

    I still think he plays too conservative to ever do anything special but am willing to change if I see something to change it.
    If he makes the ACC title game this year though I would consider that a successful year. Even if we lose the next two.

  20. choppack1 11/24/2010 at 10:18 AM #

    Rick – do you think Jim Grobe ever did anything special?

  21. bradleyb123 11/24/2010 at 10:18 AM #

    I’m hearing more and more about previous players not being “on board” with TOB and his system. Over time, several have left or been shown the door, as TOB has been assembling his own team.

    Some call it excuse-making, and that’s fine, but I say a coach deserves 3-4 years before people REALLY start passing judgment on his win-loss record ALONE. (It’s ok to pass judgment in legitimate areas of concern, like his ability to bring in recruits, etc.) But just because he has a decent pedigree does not mean we should realistically expect him to have great records in his first 2-3 years. Plus, we all know about the extraordinary number of injuries over the last three years. Granted, if we had been healthy, we probably wouldn’t have been winning ACC championships. But even WITH all those injuries, we still managed to win no less than five games a year. I think it’s fair to assume that, had we remained reasonably healthy over TOB’s tenure here, we’d have won more than five games a year. Surely the injuries cost us at least ONE game per year, probably more. So call it excuse-making if you want. But records alone are not a good measuring stick in TOB’s first three years. Now we’re seeing the fruits of patience. We’re (8-3, 5-2) and were very close to being (11-0, 7-0). I know we could have lost some, too. But going into the season, who could have imagined being 8-3, and that close to 11-0?

    Before the season, I thought TOB HAD to win games this year. Because recruiting this year is in the tank (so far). Another losing season, and good coach or not, he’s not going to get it done without decent recruiting. We would have had almost no choice but to start over with someone else. This successful season is crucial, because it SHOULD open the gates to some good recruiting (hopefully). And TOB is a man of integrity that we can be proud of. As far as we know, he hasn’t cut corners like a certain other coach in this area.

    This successful season will be memorable, because this could be the season that saved NC State football. With Carolinx on the verge of falling into the abyss of NCAA sanctions, we’re positioning ourselves to finally put some distance between us and the Holes. If we had to change coaches now, we’d probably both sink together, and remain neck-and-neck with them for several more years to come. If we can build on this season, and continue having great seasons, while they toil in the ACC cellar, we can become KNOWN as the premier football program in the state. I say KNOWN because I think we are the premier football program in the state. But we’re just not KNOWN as that, thanks to the UNX-friendly media that never seems to give us a fair shake. But if we’re winning double-digit games every year, even the media won’t be able to keep us down. And then we’ll be rolling. It all starts this weekend at Maryland. Win that and it’s on to the Orange Bowl. Then the spoils of recruiting gains that SHOULD follow. With a little good play and a little good fortune in the next 2-3 games, we might be rockin’ and rollin’ in Raleighwood!

  22. choppack1 11/24/2010 at 10:22 AM #

    primacy – I think TOB has balls – but I think he’s a bit of a crumedgeon (However you spell it).

    Here’s a thought – look at the NY Giants – they are coached by a similar personality type. Some years they are good, some years they implode.

    I have a feeling that due to the different athlete TOB is recruiting our path may be a little more volatile than it was for TOB at BC.

    He’s a highly disciplined person – he reminds me of Sendek in so many ways. He’ll change his mind – but not overnight. Don’t forget – he totally changed his offense to accentuate RW’s talent. That’s a lot more flexible than I thought he’d be.

    Still – I look at his record at BC – and I share your concern. I think he’s definitely a “good” coach. Hopefully these next 2 weeks, he’ll become more than that.

  23. Rick 11/24/2010 at 10:24 AM #

    Rick – do you think Jim Grobe ever did anything special?”

    He did win a title.
    IMO this year is TOBs best opportunity to win one.

  24. Rick 11/24/2010 at 10:25 AM #

    “Don’t forget – he totally changed his offense to accentuate RW’s talent.”

    It seems to me he has changed RW to his offense more than he has changed the offense to RW. He has turned RW into a pocket passer. It is why he is not as good now as he was two years ago.

  25. Pack Mentality 11/24/2010 at 10:27 AM #

    NCStatepride,
    I like this article and agree with your points. I am of the opinion that for NC State at this point in our history we already have a “successful” season. We aren’t at the point to shoot for the stars yet. If 7 – 8 wins becomes our base (which it should) then we will have the occasional breakout year of 10 or more wins. Who knows, that could be this year…but even if not, we are in a place that we haven’t been in recent history and we need to continue and build on this next year.

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