Moving on: “All 128 Atlantic Division Scenarios in One Place

Link.

N.C. STATE (33)
All 128 ACC Atlantic Division scenarios in one place
With four teams and seven games still relevant to the ACC’s Atlantic Division race, there are 128 scenarios that could come out of the division.

(For those without much of a stats background, that number comes from taking two — the number of outcomes possible — to the seventh power, i.e. 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2).

Anyway, this was a quirky project for a flight from Fort Lauderdale to Baltimore on the way back from the Maryland-Miami game. Needless to say, three pages of my notebook now look like Kryptonian symbols.

Of the 128 scenarios, Florida State wins in 38 of them, N.C. State in 33, Maryland in 31 and Clemson in 25.

And then there’s the trainwreck scenario. That’s the fun one.

Suppose Florida State loses to Clemson but beats Maryland. And the Terrapins upend Virginia and N.C. State. Oh, and the Wolfpack has to beat Wake Forest and North Carolina. Finally — and perhaps least likely — Clemson has to lose at Wake Forest. Then again, it’s Clemson, so nothing should be counted out.

Quick tidbit: The only way N.C. State could win the division without beating Maryland is if the Wolfpack is 5-2 entering the finale, Maryland is 3-4 and Clemson has beaten Florida State and lost to Wake Forest.

'10 Football Tom O'Brien

30 Responses to Moving on: “All 128 Atlantic Division Scenarios in One Place

  1. Khan 11/08/2010 at 12:25 PM #

    Well, you can go ahead and simplify things by removing 33 scenarios from the equation now. You’ll make things easier and you’ll be at least 60 percent less likely to develop a headache or stomach pains.

  2. theTHRILL 11/08/2010 at 12:47 PM #

    I refuse to do this to myself after 1) a lifetime of following Wolfpack athletics and 2) watching the way this team played this past weekend.

    There’s NO WAY we’ll win out when we still have two road games left and when TOB is still our coach.

  3. choppack1 11/08/2010 at 12:50 PM #

    I think it’s actaully pretty simple.

    Our loss to Clemson means that Clemson has a glimmer of hope and FSU has a glimmer of hope.

    If State wins all 3 games – we go.

    If UMd wins all 3 games – they go.

    If FSU wins all 3 games – NC State and UMd must lose.

    If Clemson wins all 3 games – State, UMd and FSU must lose.

    I gotta say – if I’m a Clemson fan, I kinda like my chances.

  4. ChemE79a 11/08/2010 at 12:57 PM #

    Choppack:
    If FSU wins all 3 games – Md will have lost (they still have to play each other)

  5. wvillepack 11/08/2010 at 1:01 PM #

    The difference is FSU and UM did not have to play VT and we did. Replace VT with duke and we are probably sitting pretty right now.

  6. Daily Update 11/08/2010 at 1:22 PM #

    wvillepack: Yes, we ended up with maybe the most difficult Coastal division schedule with two of those games on the road.

    It will be an interesting 3 weeks in the ACC.

  7. Packfan28 11/08/2010 at 1:25 PM #

    Then don’t post on the thread. Thanks.

    Admin

  8. choppack1 11/08/2010 at 1:35 PM #

    ChemE – I know that.

    UMd plays State and FSU. (So even w/ a loss, they controlled their own destiny even if we beat Clemson)

    FSU plays Clemson and UMd

    Clemson plays FSU.

    Packfan28 – that’s a pretty foolish position provided that you’ve ever been enthused about Wolfpack football for the last 4 years. You think suddenly TOB changed?

    Hell no – he’s still the same coach he was before the game. I think he’s a good coach – but he’s not a great one either. There’s a reason he’s had lots of winning seasons – but there’s also a reason he’s never won the big one.

    State fans who thought that we hired a dynamic, quick-turnaround artist who was a riverboat gambler obviously didn’t read up much on TOB. He’s conservative. It took him 4-5 years to turn BC into a consistent winner. When he did, they still didn’t win championships outright. He’s very similar to Herb Sendek. A good coach – but not a great coach. Part of the things that make him a good coach probably keep him from being a great coach.

    My big concern is will the players play for him these next 4 games. We’ve seen things go South w/ him before – I hope we don’t see it again. If things do go South – we need to make a change, because it won’t get any better next year. However, if the guys sell out for him – we’ll probably create a program similar to the one he had at BC. Heck, if our guys sell out for him – there’s a chance we’ll win th championship.

  9. baxter 11/08/2010 at 1:43 PM #

    Welp, we are 2-1 in our division, 1-1 in the coastal, 4-1 at home, 2-2 on the road. So I like our chances against WF and I don’t like our chances in the other two. I just pray to god that we have enough energy to pee on UNC’s parade and hope that FSU and MD each drop one more.

    Maybe this team will take that emotional ass kicking from saturday and spur it on to the next 3 games. I guess there is that 8-4 (now 8-5) Novemeber record to hope for as a good trend.

  10. Mike 11/08/2010 at 1:46 PM #

    Chop, I have to agree except for one premise if I am Clempson fan. I would not be confident in them getting 3 wins.

  11. wvillepack 11/08/2010 at 1:55 PM #

    If we can’t get back to where we were on offense (35 ppg roughly) I don’t want to face VT again and get embarrassed. If we can right the ship we can kick ass.

  12. Plz2BStateFan 11/08/2010 at 2:11 PM #

    After this weekend,

    I thought FSU would have won out with Clemson being the biggest hurdle. Now I think its possible FSU could drop Clemson or Mary.

    Maryland can lose to Virgina.

    We will probably beat Wake.

    But good god does that Maryland game scare me though. We never play them well.

    And good lord would losing to UNC be an epic heartbreak….

  13. baxter 11/08/2010 at 2:14 PM #

    Look I thought defensively we played a great game, but I think the team just needs to take the next several weeks of practice and work on their offensive chemistry, do a what we did best / worst workout on their film, and just get back to it. I think we have seen a conservative movement the last few weeks, and what we need to do is get back into our aggressive offense. We shouldnt be afraid to attack the best part of a defense like we did with Clemsons secondary, it removed our greatest assets as an offense.

  14. Rick 11/08/2010 at 2:34 PM #

    I think the chances of us winning out and of us losing out are fairly similar.

    If our play continues as it has since the ECU game I think 1-2 is far more likely than 2-1.

    IMO 7-5 would be a disappointing year given how it has played out.

    And before you go there DU I know you disagree because of the pre-season expectations.

  15. wvillepack 11/08/2010 at 2:56 PM #

    What? Our kicker is out for the year? Would TOB punt from the oppenents 20 on 4th down?

  16. LRM 11/08/2010 at 3:50 PM #

    You know, seeing this kind of analysis makes that decision to punt even more infuriating.

  17. choppack1 11/08/2010 at 4:28 PM #

    LRM – that’s true. Personally though, I’m more pissed off because here on Monday – he still evidently believes his decision was right as rain.

    Hey – if we win the division title – I won’t give a tinker’s damn. If this team looks well-prepared and plays hard the rest of the way – I’m OK w/ keeping TOB around.

    However, if our team folds now, I’ll hold it against him and I’ll hope for our athletic department to remove him.

  18. wvillepack 11/08/2010 at 5:16 PM #

    TOB is getting his butt kicked in recruiting by unc. I still think we need a better recruiter.

  19. 87GloryDays 11/08/2010 at 5:20 PM #

    I for one may see the glass as half full for the Pack ( unlike a big portion of our fanbase) but there is no doubt that we are in a great position ( if we take advantage of it). We have great scenarios to win our division and should be out in full force on Saturday to support this team. The naysayers and Monday morning TOB bashers sure do not help us move forward as a program. There is plenty of accountability to go around for the game Saturday and it surely does not all rest with him. The constant harping on the punt/go for it and still blasting TOB for defending his decision is ridiculous. If you think that decision was the reson we lost the game, then you you need to review the entire game. Here are the reasons we lost the game:

    – Russell throwing INT into triple coverage in end zone
    – Block in the back behind the play on Mannings ( should have been)
    pick 6
    – Having the ball downed on the 1 until two of our guys knocked it
    into end zone
    – Fumble on our own 20
    – 76 yard kick return
    – blocked field goal
    If our guys make any of those plays the game turns out differently, but we did not make ANY plays all day.

    Now to the big 4th down. Our O line was dominated all day long and we could not pick up 2 yards on 3rd, so now we are going to blow them away on 4th down ? If we punt and do our job and kick them to the 10 we are in great shape. Assuming that we hold them to the same 8 yards they did gain on their posession, they would punt us to our 45 and we would have a fresh set of downs. Once again, as with the entire game, we did not execute and make the play. So to blame TOB and the coaching staff is a little shortsighted.

    As Lou Holtz always says, you have different team every week and the team saturday was flat from the minute they came out of the tunnel. I was at the game and there was a tremendous ( and very loud) Wolfpack support and the team never fed off of it. Football is a very emotion driven game and they never showed any, while also not making plays.
    This is where the blame should lay and not on one play in which you do not know the outcome

  20. Khan 11/08/2010 at 5:30 PM #

    ^The reason we could not pick up 2 yard on 3rd down is because we were running the exact same play all day long. No imagination in play-calling yesterday at all. None. Terrible, terrible game plan. It reminded me of the good ol’ Noel Mazzone days.

  21. choppack1 11/08/2010 at 5:41 PM #

    Khan – and unfortunately, one thing I’ve noticed is that when we are stopping teams, our gameplan becomes demonstrably more conservative. This happened vs. South Carolina and happened when we beat BC when TOB was coaching them.

    I think our biggest problem vs. Clemson was not being able to contain their DL. I also think that Dean Haynes was missed a good bit in pass pro and getting some straight ahead yards.

  22. LRM 11/08/2010 at 5:48 PM #

    Look, if we beat Clemson, we essentially dominate the scenarios where we can win the ACC. We weren’t guaranteed to get the first down, and we certainly weren’t guaranteed a winning touchdown or field goal. But we didn’t even try, and on Monday afternoon I’m still not over that.

    I didn’t feel great about it with Cjakowski, but does *anyone* really feel good about our chances in a close game at Maryland?

  23. BAC79 11/08/2010 at 5:55 PM #

    Let us all hope we don’t lay an egg against WFU.

  24. mak4dpak 11/08/2010 at 7:12 PM #

    Bible and his conservative play calling, are killing our chances to win a title. If things don’t change, and we don’t utilize our offensive arsenal, we could lose the next three. Truly sad that Bible seems to have adopted the play not to lose philosophy. Booooooooooo!!!!!!

  25. mak4dpak 11/08/2010 at 7:12 PM #

    Bible and his conservative play calling, are killing our chances to win a title. If things don’t change, and we don’t utilize our offensive arnsenal, we could lose the next three. Truly sad that Bible seems to have adopted the play not to lose philosophy. Booooooooooo!!!!!!

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