Final Weekend in the ACC AET Index Games (Week 13)

If you are new to the ACC AET Index please refer back to the first article of the year 2010 ACC AET Index for a quick education in the numbers.  Week 9 article is also good to review to understand why I’ve included a new version of the AET Index that I believe is a more accurate way of comparing teams.

Atlantic Division	Conf.		Overall
	Win	Loss	Win	Loss
Florida State	6	2	8	3
NC State	5	2	8	3
Maryland	4	3	7	4
Clemson	4	4	6	5
Boston College	4	4	6	5
Wake Forest	1	7	2	9

 

Coastal Division	Conf.		Overall
	Win	Loss	Win	Loss
Virginia Tech	7	0	9	2
Miami	5	3	7	4
Georgia Tech	4	4	6	5
North Carolina	3	4	6	5
Virginia	1	6	4	7
Duke	1	6	3	8

 

Final Weekend in the regular season and it’s come down to one game for one team.  There are 3 conference games in the final weekend and the outcome only matters to one team playing, N.C. State.  That’s right folks, it’s all about the Wolfpack this weekend.  We all know what’s at stake, a shot to play for the ACC Championship, and who is standing in the Pack’s way?  The one team I’m sure the majority of the fans would agree is the most hated school outside of UNC, the Maryland Terrapins.  They have been a thorn in the side of NC State for as long as I can remember, and then some.  Since 2000 the Terps have been a pain in the side of NC State Football but you can go back to the early 1970’s in basketball to see how much they’ve both been at it. 

So in the immortal words of Al Bundy…”Let’s Rock.”

Game 1: Virginia at Virginia Tech (12:00 Raycom)

Revised ACC AET Index with HFA Factor: (calculated to +3.1)

• Virginia = 53.9
• Virginia Tech = 53.1

Virginia is the favorite with an 0.8 advantage.  Revised coaching records show:

• London is (0-0) as the Favorite on the road.
• Beamer is (9-2) as the Underdog at home.  [This year 2-0]

Vegas Odds:

Virginia at Virginia Tech:  Virginia Tech (-23.0)

 

Courtesy of the N&O

 “It’ll be okay, they aren’t our real rivals.  I love you guys.”

Game 2: North Carolina at Duke (3:30 ESPNU)

Revised ACC AET Index with HFA Factor: (calculated to +3.1)

• North Carolina = 58.6
• Duke = 56.8

North Carolina is the favorite to win this matchup with a 1.8 advantage.  Revised coaching records show:

• Davis is (3-3) as the Favorite on the road. [This year 1-0]
• Cutcliffe is (0-3) as the Underdog at home. [This year 0-1]

Vegas Odds:

North Carolina at Duke:  North Carolina (-9.5)

 

Game 3: NC State at Maryland (3:30 ESPN2)

Revised ACC AET Index with HFA Factor: (calculated to +3.1)

• NC State = 53.0
• Maryland = 54.9

Maryland is the favorite to win this matchup with a 1.9 advantage.  Revised coaching records show:

• O’Brien is (5-9) as the Underdog on the road. [This year 2-1]
• Friedgen is (8-4) as the Favorite at home.  [This year 1-0]

 Vegas Odds:  NC State at Maryland:  NC State (-2.5)

 

Extra Information:

Opposition Record (removing results against subject team) minus IAA teams.

Maryland :

• Overall Opp Record : 52-47 (0.525)
• Overall Opp Record against teams they beat : 28-32 (0.467)
• Overall Opp Record against teams they loss : 24-15 (0.615)

NC State :

• Overall Opp Record : 58-41 (0.586)
• Overall Opp Record against teams they beat : 40-29 (0.580)
• Overall Opp Record against teams they loss : 18-12 (0.600)

 

Non-ACC AET Games:

• Boston College at Syracuse (-3.0) [12:00 ESPN]
• South Florida at Miami (-11.5) [12:00 ESPNU]
• Florida State (-2.5) at Florida [3:30 ABC]
• South Carolina (-2.5) at Clemson [7:00 ESPN2]
• Wake Forest at Vanderbilt (-6.0) [7:30 CBS College Sports]
• Georgia Tech at Georgia (-12.5) [7:45 ESPN]

 

ACC AET Record (Favorites)

• 2006 : 34-14
• 2007 : 24-24
• 2008 : 23-25
• 2009 : 36-12
• 2010 : 25-20
• Total : 142-95 (59.9%)

 

What do I think?

1. Nothing at stake here except rivalry bragging rights and a perfect conference record.  Virginia Tech will play their starters until the game is locked up and then pull them to prevent injuries.  Even though Virginia beat Miami there’s little to no chance they’ll beat VT.  Virginia Tech.
2. I’d say there is a potential emotional letdown but why should there be, State isn’t UNC’s “Rival” right??  So that means they’ll easily be pumped for their REAL “rival”.  Even if Duke play’s their best game North Carolina should easily dispose of them but you have to “Throw the records out” when you play a “rival”.  Right?!?  North Carolina. 
3. Well what’s it going to be Pack fans?  Are we going to pull a State/TOB and choke?  Or will we break the cycle and go out and take this game and EARN our spot in the championship game?  I’ll admit, I’m a full fledge Wolfpacker, I’m scared as heck about this game and the nerves/butterflies started yesterday.  I’ll be screaming the entire game that it’s over and we’ve lost.  Hard to break a mentality that has been burned in me for the last 20 years.  For the second straight weekend we are playing a team on its Senior Day (Thanks ACC).  I wasn’t that worried about Maryland prior to last week because honestly, their best wins the entire year are Boston College (6-5) and Navy (8-3), but seeing how well they played up into the 4^th quarter against FSU  it has raised serious doubts.  Then again, even though we let the VT game get away (Foster is an amazing DC), showed no interest in playing ECU in their Super Bowl, and played not to lose at Clemson, I think there is something about this team that will get it done.  State must come to play and play the entire game because Maryland has something most teams don’t have, a good but young QB and two decent RB’s.  NC State in another close one.

 

What do you think?