Sat Open FBall Entry; 2010 ACC AET Week 9 [Updated 10/29]

 

Due to the Thursday night game and some schools who wait until Thursday to release their Depth Chart (Yes, I’m looking at you Wake Forest), I’m having to put this out early and incomplete.  I’ll update on Friday to include the Saturday games.

2010 ACC AET Index (10/30)
  Team	Class Size Jr/Sr %	Returning Starters %	Returning Lettermen %	Depth Chart Jr/Sr %	Talent Points	AVG Rank
Miami	41 (2)	64 (5)	72 (4)	62 (2)	152 (1)	2.8
UNC	45 (1)	68 (2)	70 (5)	53 (6)	127 (4)	3.6
Clemson	40 (4)	59 (7)	70 (5)	52 (8)	145 (2)	5.2
GT	31 (11)	64 (5)	76 (1)	60 (4)	114 (7)	5.6
Duke	34 (9)	68 (2)	73 (3)	54 (5)	110 (8)	5.4
FSU	36 (7)	73 (1)	69 (7)	40 (12)	138 (3)	6.0
Virginia	41 (2)	55 (9)	68 (9)	68 (1)	101 (12)	6.6
NCSU	38 (5)	55 (9)	59 (12)	62 (2)	121 (5)	6.6
BC	38 (5)	68 (2)	67 (10)	49 (9)	109 (9)	7.0
Maryland	33 (10)	55 (9)	76 (1)	46 (11)	109 (9)	8.0
Wake	35 (8)	59 (7)	69 (8)	53 (6)	105 (11)	8.0
VT	30 (12)	55 (9)	64 (11)	49 (9)	121 (5)	9.2
ACC Avg	36.8	61.9	69.4	54.0	121.0	6.17

 

2010 ACC AET Index (10/30) revised
  Team	Class Size Jr/Sr %	Returning Starters %	Returning Lettermen %	Depth Chart Jr/Sr %	Talent Points %	AVG Rank
Miami	41	64	72	62	69.1	61.6
UNC	45	68	70	53	57.7	58.7
Clemson	40	59	70	52	65.9	57.4
GT	31	64	76	60	51.8	56.6
FSU	36	73	69	40	62.7	56.1
Duke	34	68	73	54	50.0	55.8
Virginia	41	55	68	68	45.9	55.6
BC	38	68	67	49	49.5	54.3
NCSU	38	55	59	62	55.0	53.8
Wake	35	59	69	53	47.7	52.7
Maryland	33	55	76	46	49.5	51.9
VT	30	55	64	49	55.0	50.6
ACC Avg	36.8	61.9	69.4	54.0	55.0	55.4

 

 

Game 1: Florida State at NC State (Thursday 7:30 ESPN)

Look at the 2010 ACC AET Index  to see each school’s Index Number and how it was achieved. I will be using updated weekly numbers to reflect the current week’s Depth Charts.

• FSU = 6.0
• NC State = 6.6

Referring back to the 2006-2009 AET Index you’ll see that the Home Field Advantage (HFA) factor is -1.6, which was developed using 2006-2008 data. Including 2009 data the HFA factor is -1.5. So we subtract 1.5 from NC State who is the Home team and we get:

• FSU = 6.0
• NC State = 5.1

NC State becomes the favorite to win this matchup with a 0.9 advantage.

Now looking back at how coaches fare as Favorites and Underdogs, 2006-2009 ACC AET Index, (plus 2010 game results to this point) we see the following:

• Fisher is (2-0) as the Underdog on the road. (games against Miami and UVA)
• O’Brien is (4-4) as the Favorite at home.

NOTE:  I think I’ve found a better way at comparing the teams.  Instead of assigning a rank from 1-12 to each of the teams based on what they have for each category I’ve decided that in order to more accurately reflect the separation between each team (in each category) I should eliminate the rankings and use their percentages.  The problem I had before was what to do with the Talent Points category.  I’ve decided to convert it to a percentage by taking the team’s talent points and dividing it by 220 (the maximum point total if a team’s depth chart consisted of all 5 star players).  I believe this will work out better from what I’ve seen so far.  For example, if Team A = 60%, Team B = 50%, and Team C = 49%, then under the current method they would have received rankings of Team A=1, Team B=2, and Team C=3.  This isn’t a very good method considering Team A is a full 10% more than Team B yet only has a separation of 1.  I’ll provide more details at the end of the season during my year in review but for now I’m going to start adding the newer method/records with the current method for the rest of the season for comparison purposes.

New AET Index Numbers: (Now the favorite is the team with the higher number)

• FSU = 56.1
• NC State = 53.8

HFA Factor: (calculated to 3.1)

• FSU = 56.1
• NC State = 56.9

NC State again becomes the favorite with a slim 0.8 advantage.  Revised coaching records show:

• Fisher is (2-0) as the Underdog on the road. (games against Miami and UVA)
• O’Brien is (3-4) as the Favorite at home.

What do I think?

I think Florida State COULD be a dangerous team.  They built this season’s reputation on blowing out crap teams (Wake Forest & Virginia) before facing a talented but poorly coached Miami team.  Then they struggled against a below average Boston College.  FSU is dangerous because they have just as potent an offense as NC State but now are getting over 200 yards a game on the ground, they aren’t having to rely completely on Ponder.  That takes away NC State defense’s ability to key in on one facet of the game.  I think State will score enough points on offense to win the game, the question comes back to (like it has for 3 years now) will the defense slow down the opposing team enough to get the win.  I’m also concerned about NC State’s special teams.  All of the hidden yardage we give up on kickoffs and punts, add in missed FG’s from inside the 30 yard line, and you have a recipe for disaster in a close game. 

I don’t think NC State needs to play a perfect game to beat FSU, we just can’t afford to play poorly in any one of the 3 areas.  Defense is going to need to slow down FSU’s running game and at the same time not give up the big passes.  The 2 things I’m going to keep track of for both teams are 3^rd down conversions, especially on 3^rd and long, plus Red Zone Scoring.  NC State has been particularly awful this year on scoring Touchdowns once inside the 20. 

As for the outcome, I’m going with the AET Index and picking NC State winning a close one, thanks in part to what should be an electric and hostile atmosphere in Carter-Finley. 

Vegas Odds: (as of Wednesday)

FSU at NC State:  FSU -4

What do you think?

[UPDATED]

What can I say?  That was one HELL of a game.

3rd Down Eff:

• FSU = 8/14  (57%)
• NC State = 12/18  (67%)

Definitely needed to do better on 3rd down defense but hey, I’ll take whatever we get as long as it results in a Win.

Red Zone:

• FSU = 4/5 (3TD/1FG)
• NC State = 4/5 (4TD/0FG)

Russell’s INT was the lone time we didn’t score in the Red Zone but was a huge improvement over what we’ve seen this season.

SATURDAY’S GAMES

Game 2: Clemson at Boston College (12:00 Raycom)

Updated AET Index Numbers:

• Clemson = 5.2
• Boston College = 7.0

HFA Factor:

• Clemson = 5.2
• Boston College = 5.5

Clemson remains the favorite to win this matchup with a 0.3 advantage.

• Swinney is (3-2) as the Favorite on the road.
• Spaziani is (0-1) as the Underdog at home.

New AET Index Numbers:

• Clemson = 57.4
• Boston College = 54.3

HFA Factor:

• Clemson = 57.4
• Boston College = 57.4

It’s now a toss-up.

 

Game 3: Miami at Virginia (12:00 ESPN)

Updated AET Index Numbers (new index number):

• Miami = 2.8  (61.6)
• Virginia = 6.6 (55.6)

HFA Factor:

• Miami = 2.8 (61.6)
• Virginia = 5.1 (58.7)

Miami is still the favorite to win this matchup with a 2.3 (2.9) advantage.

• Shannon is (4-6) as the Favorite on the road. (6-6)
• London is (0-1) as the Underdog at home. (0-1)

 

Game 4: Wake Forest at Maryland (3:30 ESPNU)

Updated AET Index Numbers:

• Wake Forest = 8.0 (52.7)
• Maryland = 8.0 (51.9)

HFA Factor:

• Wake Forest = 8.0 (52.7)
• Maryland = 6.5 (55.0)

Maryland goes from a toss up to the favorite to win this matchup with a 1.5 (2.3) advantage.

• Grobe is (6-10) as the Underdog on the road. (4-10)
• Friedgen is (7-5) as the Favorite at home. (7-4)

 

Vegas Odds: (as of Friday 12:00 pm)

1. Clemson at Boston College:  Clemson -7
2. Miami at Virginia:  Miami -14.5
3. Wake Forest at Maryland: Maryland -5.5

 

What do I think?

1. This game will have the most impact towards NC State.  With Clemson at 2-2 in the conference a win will keep them in the race with games against NC State and FSU remaining.  A loss will all but eliminate them.  I think if Swinney removes his head out of his butt and hands the ball off to Ellington at least 25 times then Clemson should have no problems against BC.
2. Even the schizophrenic Miami Hurricanes shouldn’t have any problems with Virginia where most fans will be dressed like bleachers.
3. Outside of FSU/NC State, I think this is the most compelling matchup in the ACC this weekend.  Notice I didn’t say it was going to be pretty, by either side.  Wake Forest is just in over its head this year.  Maryland on the other hand has stuffed itself full of cupcakes to get to 5-2.  Beating Navy, Morgan State, FIU, and Duke isn’t exactly saying much.  I do think that last weeks win at Boston College was a big win for them.  I’m going with the AET Index and saying Maryland wins and covers the spread.

What do you think?