Sagarin Picks the Pack to Finish 9-3

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Jeff Sagarin has predicted NC State to finish 9-3 in the regular season and to come in second place in the ACC’s Atlantic Division in his weekly college football rankings. Sagarin has the Wolfpack ranked #36 in his listings, which is about the same place that State sits in other polls.  Calculating out his predictors and other statistical indicators, currently the ACC is slate should end as:

Atlantic W L W L Coastal W L W L
Florida State
8
0
10
2
Georgia Tech
7
1
9
3
N.C. State
6
2
9
3
Virginia Tech
6
2
8
4
Boston College
4
4
8
4
Virginia
5
3
8
4
Maryland
3
5
6
6
Miami
5
3
7
5
Wake Forest
2
6
5
7
North Carolina
2
6
4
8
Clemson
1
7
3
9
Duke
0
8
2
10

I am not sure how much to make of this ranking, however, because when I see Clemson coming in at 3-9 overall, I am deeply suspicious.  The Tigers played very well at Auburn, and could have as easily won that game as lost it.  To me, that’s not the hallmark of a team that’s going to go 3-9.  While the Tigers may not win the ACC or go to a BCS bowl, I am convinced they are better than Sagarin’s predictions.

Interestingly, Sagarin also seems to think that State will lose one out of conference game – if they are going to finish 6-2 in conference play as he predicts, and if he is saying that the Pack is going to finish 9-3, that means that State will lose on the road to ECU next month, its only remaining OOC game for the regular season.  Having seen a Tulsa team nearly beat them and after collapsing in the second half against a mediocre Virginia Tech offense, I am having problems believing that the Pirates can stop NC State’s offense. That in mind,  I believe State will have the upper hand in the upcoming in-state rivalry game.  State’s defense has improved, so has its offense and I simply don’t believe that even with the home field advantage that ECU can keep up with the Pack’s potent offensive attack.

At the same time I hope Sagarin has hit the mark with the Wolfpack – a 9-3 regular season may well slot NC State to return to the Peach Chick-Fil-A Bowl in Atlanta, which is a very welcome and well-regarded destination destination for Pack fans.

Additionally this week’s opponent — Georgia Tech (2-1) comes in at #34 — making Saturday’s contest (12pm ESPN) a pick ’em for all intents and purposes.  After all, it would be hard to find a plug nickel’s difference between the #34 and the #36 team in college football.  While the Jackets will be homestanding, it’s hard to believe that Bobby Dodd Stadium will be imposing enough to give Tech a nine point advantage – which is the current Vegas line for the game.

As it is often said, however, games are played on gridirons, not Excel spreadsheets, so take this for what its worth.  If NC State can contain the Georgia Tech offense and maintain the pace it has thus far in the season when it has the ball, chances are very good that the Pack can return home from Atlanta 4-0.  If the resurgent Wolfpack stopping unit fails to keep the Yellow Jacket triple-option attack under its paw, then it will be a very long day for the team.

Meanwhile, ESPN’s Pat Forde is still doubting the Pack:

ESPN Faux 3-0 Teams

NC State (25). What’s to like: After throwing 11 interceptions last year, quarterback Russell Wilson is pick-free so far in 2010. The opportunistic Wolfpack (one word) has outscored opponents 72-21 in the first half.

What’s to doubt: NC State hasn’t run the ball with consistency. And there are plenty of challenging games to come.

Reality check: At Georgia Tech on Saturday (ESPN, noon ET). Wolfpack are 1-11 in their past 12 ACC road games outside the state of North Carolina.

Verdict: NC State will finish with its first winning record since 2005.

I am not convinced that Forde has been watching NC State closely, as I came away convinced that not only did NC State have a great game running the ball against Cincinnati, I also thought they have found a potential star back in Mustafa Greene.  After watching the replay of the game on the DVR, that thought was only reinforced — the offensive line has improved and Greene is a player who can do a LOT of damage if he breaks into the second level.  Maybe it is my red-tinted glasses, but I did hear some praise for Greene from the ostensibly neutral ESPN game announcers too, so maybe not.

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39 Responses to Sagarin Picks the Pack to Finish 9-3

  1. GoldenChain 09/21/2010 at 4:03 PM #

    I’d take 9-3 AND RUN!!!!!!!!

  2. tractor57 09/21/2010 at 4:08 PM #

    That Clemson prediction is off base I think.
    If yoy saw the action against Auburn …

    9-3 for the ‘Pack – maybe but I’m still in the 7-8 range.

  3. wolfonthehill 09/21/2010 at 4:11 PM #

    I’m still struggling with the idea that we might actually be good. Til we win a few ACC games, I’m just not sold…

  4. GAWolf 09/21/2010 at 4:18 PM #

    This Saturday is our first true litmus test.

  5. LKNpackfan 09/21/2010 at 4:25 PM #

    Dude thinks Clemson will go 1-7 in conference? That just taints the entire thing for me.

  6. TOBtime 09/21/2010 at 4:35 PM #

    No way Fla. St. goes 8-0 in conference. The same team that was SHELLACKED by OU? I don’t see it.
    Saturday is the first true test followed by another with Va. Tech. Bud Foster has young guys but they will get better. The next 2 weeks will be very telling for the Wolfpack.

  7. PackFanInLA 09/21/2010 at 4:36 PM #

    These rankings look suspect. The tails on both ends of the distribution look over-emphasized. GT 7-1, FSU 8-0? Duke, Wake, UNC, and Clemson winning 5 ACC games COMBINED? No way. There is not that much differentiation between the teams in this league for that to make any statistical sense. That may work when you have UT and Oklahoma at the top and the Baylors of the world getting creamed all the time, but I haven’t seen that type of dramatic difference between the best and worst (at least so far from what i have seen).

    I bet we end up with a cluster of teams around 4-4, 5-3, and 3-5 in the conference, with maybe a team or two at 6-2 or 2-6.

  8. Scooter 09/21/2010 at 4:47 PM #

    Lets not say we’re good. We just aren’t there yet. We have potential to make a good run, though.

  9. tractor57 09/21/2010 at 5:19 PM #

    I’m very hopeful but until …

    Potential yes – now time to prove it.

  10. tuckerdorm1983 09/21/2010 at 5:47 PM #

    7-5 or 8-4

    GT (L) probably
    CL (L) definitely at death valley
    FSU (L) more than likely
    VT (L) I think they are much better than they appear
    UNC (L) this game worries me a great deal this year

    we may slip up and lose to wake, ecu, bc or md. I had us losing to Cinn. to be 9-3 we better play better than against cinn.

  11. ryebread 09/21/2010 at 5:53 PM #

    I think the ACC unfolds something like this:

    Atlantic
    Clemson: 6-2
    FSU: 5-3
    NC State: 4-4
    BC: 4-4
    Wake: 3-5
    Maryland: 2-6

    Coastal:
    Miami: 6-2
    GT: 5-3
    VT: 5-3
    UVA: 3-5
    UNC: 3-5
    Duke: 2-6

    I think we can beat ECU though. With a 4-4 conference record (which is doable), we’d hit my stretch goal for this team of 8-4.

    A win @ GT this weekend would be big. I had this one circled as a loss. The Pack really needs to come out focused and disciplined. This is a game where mistakes will absolutely kill us.

  12. whitefang 09/21/2010 at 6:17 PM #

    Based on what I’ve seen so far, I don’t think there is anybody on the schedule we can’t beat nor do I think there is anybody we can’t lose to. We appear to be a better team than we have been, but we certainly aren’t overpowering enough to expect to cruise thru any part of the rest of our schedule. So short of some sort of collapse thru injuries, etc, luck as much as anything will determine where we finish. And we are damn sure due some luck.
    Of course if we swat the Bees Saturday, then…

  13. MattN 09/21/2010 at 6:18 PM #

    “After throwing 11 interceptions last year,”

    What is he talking about? Wilson hasn’t thrown 11 interceptions in his CAREER. He set the NCAA record for consecutive completions WITHOUT an interception last year!!

    Edit: nevermind. I’m, misremembering 2008.

  14. highstick 09/21/2010 at 6:47 PM #

    Clemson does not with the Atlantic~~~ Take it to the bank…Now I don’t agree that they go 1-7, but no way they are that good. They’v had their “emotional moral loss” now so they can go crawl back under their rock!

  15. bradleyb123 09/21/2010 at 7:08 PM #

    I’m still struggling with the idea that we might actually be good. Til we win a few ACC games, I’m just not sold…

    But would winning ACC games be enough to convince a doubter that a team is good? There aren’t many ACC teams that are all that great to begin with.

    I am cautiously optimistic about State. I’m in the camp that thinks there isn’t a team on our schedule we can’t beat. But that doesn’t mean I expect us to finish 12-0 and headed to the ACCCG.

    I don’t think we’re good enough to run the table YET. But I think we still have room for improvement as the team gels. Hopefully we continue winning games until we get to the point where we ARE that good, and can expect victories over just about anybody.

    If we can win at GT, and in good fashion (not domination, but playing well on both sides of the ball), I think that will go far in boosting our confidence, which will help us win even more. If we play poorly and lose at GT, it could be deflating to the team psyche and we’ll probably lose several more.

    I really think the next game is a big key to our entire season.

  16. El Scrotcho 09/21/2010 at 7:22 PM #

    We don’t have to be good on an absolute basis. As long as we’re better than the other ACC teams, that’s all that matters.

    If we somehow manage to steal this one in Atlanta we will be in fantastic shape – but unless they put the ball on the ground 4+ times I don’t see that happening.

  17. travelwolf 09/21/2010 at 7:55 PM #

    Sagarin, thanks for jinxing us… 3 and 1 – here we come!

  18. 61Packer 09/21/2010 at 8:12 PM #

    I don’t know if we’re very good or not, but I do believe we’re good, and compared to the rest of the 2010 ACC this season, WHY NOT US? For once, we already have three of the four things needed for a championship season- a solid defense, a great quarterback, and a very good, experienced coaching staff.

    We may also have that fourth thing this season, the one thing we’ve been lacking for way too long, and that’s good fortune. I hope the Wolfpack coaches have taken page 106 out of Phil Steele’s 2010 ACC Forecast and have put it in a prominent place on a locker room wall.

  19. coach13 09/21/2010 at 8:30 PM #

    This will be the weekend that, aftr finishd, we can prognosticate(sp) much better.

  20. MattN 09/21/2010 at 8:39 PM #

    ^I can agree with that. *IF* we win in ATL (and really, when was the last time we did that?) it is hard for me to see how (barring major injury to key players) we won’t win at least 8 if not 9.

  21. VaWolf82 09/21/2010 at 8:42 PM #

    we already have three of the four things needed for a championship season- a solid defense

    Let’s plan on revisiting your first point Sat afternoon.

  22. LRM 09/21/2010 at 9:01 PM #

    It makes for fun discussion, but it’s utterly ridiculous to put any stock into a formula that predicts records after Week 3.

    Plain and simple, TOB has won, what, three conference road games (@Mia ’07, @ UNC and Duke ’08) during his tenure at State? Until that changes (hopefully this weekend), any talk of 9-3 is outrageous.

    GT will be a very tough, but winnable game. If we take care of business I’ll feel a lot better about coming home to play VT in a couple weekends.

  23. blpack 09/21/2010 at 9:13 PM #

    It seems odd to pick us that high, FSU and UVa that high and CU that low. I think we can compete for our division, but I’d like to see us go on the road take down the Jackets before I really think about a nice bowl.

  24. RednWhite17 09/21/2010 at 9:48 PM #

    What stands out to me:

    – Clemson at 3-9 is a JOKE. Period. Somebody please find me the last time an ACC team beat a ranked SEC team on the ROAD and didn’t win the ACC. If they finish at or below 500 in the ACC I’d be shocked.

    – NC State at 6-2 in the ACC? Well, with the way things have gone so far… why not? Still, I think 5-3 is probably more likely… unless the Pack spring an upset in Atlanta this weekend.

    – FSU isn’t going undefeated in the ACC. Not with that defense they aren’t. If they were that good then they wouldn’t have been EMBARRASSED at Oklahoma.

    – Duke will win one ACC game at least. Coach Cutcliffe alone is worth at least that, if not more.

    – The Coastal… not going to speculate. It’s a complete crapshoot. Nothing would surprise me this year. G-Tech lost to a bad KANSAS team, V-tech crapped-the-bed against James Madison, UVA nearly beat Southern Cal on the road, and UNC still has 12 guys in limbo.

  25. coach13 09/21/2010 at 9:57 PM #

    My guess is we beat BC, ECU, WF, MD for a total of 7 wins. I equate the difficulty of beating GT away with the difficulty of the rest of these games (Away CU, Home FSU, Home VT, away UNC…in that orser). That is why I feel we will have a better “guess” after the GT game.

    If we win 2 of the hardest 5 along with the rest we SHOULD win, that puts us 5-3 in ACC and 9-3 overall. I will hope for more (I’m greedy) but would still be tickled with 9-3.

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