TOB vs CMFBD

Big Four Rivals Stat of the Day Tom O'Brien13

Horrible Butch Davis Ad

Joe Giglio has been hard at work compiling a ‘by the numbers’ analysis comparing NC State’s Tom O’Brien with UNC’s Chief *# Butch Davis.  The two points I can make for Coach O’Brien are:

(1) I am very glad he gets to play Carolina every year!

(2) Is there something we can do to get four bye-weeks in the month of October?

You really should take a look at the chart; it is great work.  The "winning record" under I-A opponents are teams that finished the season with a winning record, "losing record" indicates teams that finished the season with a losing record.

The following are some conclusions drawn by Giglio:

• O’Brien is 7-2 against the Coastal Division but 2-13 against the Atlantic. It’s one thing to be winless against FSU, BC and Clemson but a collective 2-4 against Maryland and Wake? Not good.

The flip side, of course, is a 5-0 mark against UNC and Miami, two of the most talented programs in the ACC. (Aside: My guess is that the Duke loss from last season still keeps O’Brien up at night. Given Duke’s recent history, it’s not a stretch to reason O’Brien should be 8-1 against the Coastal — with only a no-chance loss at VT).

O’Brien and Davis are a combined 5-0 against Miami but 0-4 against FSU. You think either one was happy to see Bobby Bowden retire (or that Randy Shannon was given a contract extension)?

• Even if you take away the four I-AA gimmes, Davis is a respectable 10-6 at home with quality wins over Miami (twice), Notre Dame, Georgia Tech and Boston College.

Take away O’Brien’s four gimmes and he’s 8-12 at home.

You have to win your home games in college football. Period. There’s no two ways around it.

• What happens to O’Brien between October and November? Injuries certainly are a factor, and are an overarching theme to all of O’Brien’s numbers, but that’s a pretty wide discrepancy — 2-8 in October vs. 8-4 in November?

Improvement is one thing, and in O’Brien’s case commendable, but there’s also something to be said for consistency.

• Both coaches should avoid the Big East and Steve Spurrier.

O’Brien’s 1-5 mark vs. BCS opponents includes three losses to Big East teams — Louisville (2007), South Florida (2008), Rutgers (2008) — and two to Spurrier and South Carolina (2008 and 2009).

The lone win was against a Big East team, Pitt (2009).

All of Davis’ BCS wins are against Big East teams — UConn (2008 and 2009), Rutgers (2008) — or Notre Dame (2008).

But three of the losses are to Big East teams — USF (2007), West Virginia (2008), Pitt (2009) — and the other is to South Carolina (2007).

Of course, O’Brien at Boston College and Davis at Miami, both came from the Big East. And Spurrier, the former Duke coach, loves to beat UNC and State.

• Notes: State lost to Central Florida, from Conference USA, in 2007, which accounts for the missing nonconference loss from O’Brien’s record in the chart.

 

A couple of numbers that Giglio missed where Davis holds a clear lead over O’Brien:

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Big Four Rivals Stat of the Day Tom O'Brien

13 Responses to TOB vs CMFBD

  1. dfcf99 08/19/2010 at 9:27 AM #

    I’ve long tried to find that article by Saunders to no avail. The link in the old article doesn’t work either. I know somebody out there has it, right? Can you post it?

  2. choppack1 08/19/2010 at 9:28 AM #

    Yep – in another entry I made the comment about how God-awful TOB had been in October. Obvioulsy, you can’t afford to go ofer in the “moving month”….just ask Coach Lowe.

    And the perfect example is last year, we were a very respectable 3-1 in September, 0-4 in October and again a respectable 2-2 in November.

    In 2008, we were – what 2-2 in September, 0-4 in October and 4-0 in November?

    Maybe it’s the schedule. I remember when Johnny Major was at UT – they’d usually have a real strong November – but that was also when they played Vandy and Kentucky.

    We took a huge step back last year – got to get it back this year.

  3. Sweet jumper 08/19/2010 at 9:40 AM #

    CMFBD-Nice minority hire!

  4. JEOH2 08/19/2010 at 10:39 AM #

    NC State rarely gets credit for its diversity initiatives while Carolina is praised for every little thing they do…it baffles me how little coverage was made in traditional and in African-American media as to how Coach Lowe was the first African-American head coach to be hired in the triangle in ANY of the revenue or major sports (including WBB and Baseball)…anyways I digress…

    October this year includes VT, BC, & FSU with a trip to ECU…while November is Clemson, WF, UNC, and MD…doesn’t look like the trend will change to me…best bet 2-2 in october (more likely 1-3) and 3-1 in November (more likely 2-2)…

  5. choppack1 08/19/2010 at 11:43 AM #

    JEOH2 – that doesn’t fit the template…The template – NC State and its fans are stupid, racist and backwards. UNC and its fan are open minded forward thikning and intelligent.

    When NC State hires a white coach – they should have hired a minority.

    When UNC hires a white coach – they made a great hire hiring the best available candidate.

    When NC State hires a black basketball coach – crickets.

    When UNC hires a black football or basketball coach…oh, wait a second.

  6. Master 08/19/2010 at 12:11 PM #

    Choppack1 – I think it’s pretty obvious that our problems in October are a direct result of INJURIES over the last two years. I’m surprised how many of our own fans don’t realize that we had 13 season ending injuries in ’08 and 16 season ending injuries in ’09. Most of those injuries caused us to dip into the Fr and So classes. Not only did those younger players lack experience, they require the experienced players to help cover their shortcomings. At least in ’08 we got some of the injured players back for the 2nd half of the season and did reasonably well when they returned.

    I for one will not be critical of TOB until we have a losing effort with a full and reasonably healthy roster for a year. Numerous posts on this site have documented how bare the cupboard was when TOB got to State and just as many have praised TOB for rebuilding thru red shirts. I think we’re almost back.

  7. islandbreeze 08/19/2010 at 12:28 PM #

    Injuries caused by Todd Rice’s lackadaisical training methods. Who hired Todd Rice? Who hired Mike Archer?

  8. packplantpath 08/19/2010 at 1:20 PM #

    breeze, do you have some inside information on Todd Rice and our S&C program? If so, please do share. Otherwise, it seems more like wining and scapegoating. I know nothing about him, but given that he held (I think) the same position at BC and injuries were not at the level they have been here the last 3 years, it seems pretty baseless unless you have insider info.

    Archer is a real head scratcher, I’ll grant you that.

  9. islandbreeze 08/19/2010 at 2:27 PM #

    Alpha said that Todd Rice isn’t well respected among his peers which confirmed my suspicions.

  10. packplantpath 08/19/2010 at 2:51 PM #

    Fair enough. I’ll be the first to admit, I have no clue. Director of S&C is the kind of position that most would have no idea exists unless there are signs something is wrong, so our injury situation is certainly something that should raise eyebrows and lead to questioning. There is always the possibility it is just dumb luck too, though at the rate we are going that seems less and less likely. I’d love to hear some dirt instead of speculation though.

    I must have missed Alpha’s comment. I would definitely take his word over my questions.

  11. packalum44 08/19/2010 at 10:53 PM #

    Its hard to take the statistics seriously because they inherited vastly different programs. Certainly in the upcoming year its fair enough to compare now. It is easy to know that one is a better coach and one is a better recruiter. Kinda like Gary Williams versus Roy Williams minus the huge talent discrepancy.

  12. JVM4PACK 08/20/2010 at 7:01 AM #

    It may be a mute point…if I remember correctly, when the Iowa Hawkeyes went to the Orange Bowl a BCS bowl last year and be GT their injury report was just has haunting/bad about lost starters as the Wolfpack’s reports have been in past years. Hard to believe a team with so many injuries can only have 2 losses and still win the Orange Bowl.

  13. choppack1 08/20/2010 at 9:46 AM #

    “Injuries caused by Todd Rice’s lackadaisical training methods. Who hired Todd Rice?”

    Did Alpha say that Rice’s methods were lackadasical? I thought BC did pretty well on the injury front before TOB came to state. I do know that the S&C is unconvential. OTOH, I’d say our b’balls teams S&C may have been lackadasical.

    And just keep in mind, our roster was pretty bad by the time TOB arrived – we were losing to BAD UNC teams…of course, we somehow beat BC, so there’s that.

    Just another day in the “well, maybe it will happen, maybe it won’t” for the wolp-fack.

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