O’Brien v. Lowe

Maybe it’s unfair, but I have routinely compared Sidney Lowe’s performance with Tom O’Brien’s performance, at least within my circle of Wolfpack faithful. The debate can often become colorful and I usually, and admittedly, find myself on the outside looking in on the popular response. Now that we’re more than a few years in to both coaches tenure, it’s time to ask the question. Who has the highest threshold for success between the two?

A little (painful) history:

Since 2007, Tom O’Brien has posted an overall record of 16 and 21 (.432) with records of 5 – 7, 6 – 7, and 5 – 7.

Since 2007, Sidney Lowe has posted an overall record of 71 and 62 (.533) with records of 20 – 16, 15 -16, 16 – 14, and 20 – 16.

Both coaches currently maintain abysmal ACC records at 9 – 15 (.375) and 20 – 44 (.313) respectively.

As Wolfpack fans, we all know how to “wait till next year” and now that “next year” is upon us, who has the highest threshold for success between the two coaches? I think most even-headed Wolfpack fans will freely admit that this question is a no contest, at least for this year. Sidney Lowe certainly has the highest demand for success as he has reached his 5th season that many are calling “do or die.” With the incoming recruits, a sub .500 ACC record will be simply inexcusable for most.

This year for Football looks dreadfully similar to each of the 3 prior seasons. Ho hum. Not much going on. We get a few playmakers back (RW and NI), but the defense looks anemic as does the runningback position.

Negating everything else, if you had to throw your confidence behind one OR the other, who would you take? Tom O’Brien certainly has a history of winning at programs that don’t see much of that, but recruiting seems to be lagging and the TOB coached NC State teams look drastically different from the TOB coached Boston College teams. Defense has been a problem from Day 1 and not much has changed in that area.

Sidney has no history of winning as a head coach and hasn’t established a blazing record here either. Last year saw marked improvements, especially down the stretch, and it’s hard to complain with the inroads that have been made with recruiting. The incoming 2010-2011 class may be the best recruiting class in NC State’s history. We certainly don’t want to count chickens before they hatch…

Personally, I take Lowe. I see improvement, albeit slow, and an ability to land key recruits. I’ve seen stagnation with O’Brien. But if Tom does know how to do one thing, it’s own the hell out of Carolina.

And admittedly, this is an unpopular response with my fellow Wolfpackers. I wanted to raise the question outside of my intimate circle and see if I truly am crazy.

Who would you take and why?

NCS Basketball NCS Football Sidney Lowe Tom O'Brien

56 Responses to O’Brien v. Lowe

  1. Daily Update 08/09/2010 at 11:10 AM #

    I would take TOB with Sidney’s recruits. Is that a choice?

  2. Statefan1998 08/09/2010 at 11:18 AM #

    Going to be interesting. I can already see where this is going.

  3. Wufpacker 08/09/2010 at 11:21 AM #

    ^^ I don’t know, man. Playing 11-12 guys, with no second string? And they’d have to play both ways. And who would QB the offense? Javi G?

    I think that could get ugly, though not as ugly as anything else we’ve seen.

    (And yes, I really did get your point, just had a vision of the above)

    How about a team of mini-Russell Wilsons vs. Da Bears.

  4. Plz2BStateFan 08/09/2010 at 11:30 AM #

    I dont think its the fairest comparison. TOB is entering Year 4, Sidney it entering year 5.

    And because of this I think Lowe is farther along in turning things around. If he can keep up the recruiting, and show his X & O ability that we have seen, he could go places.

    I can see how TOB can turn things around this year. Its possible. But he has got to get some momentum back. We cant afford to have this years recruiting class come up short and carry another recruiting class hole in the football program.

    Actually, this would be a GREAT topic to discuss right at the end of this years football regular season. You see how TOB does in year 4, and Lowe is JUST getting started in year 5. Will be able to reach a much better conclusion.

  5. Clarksa 08/09/2010 at 11:44 AM #

    With every season that passes, the TOB that was described by BC fans is the same TOB we have as a coach. He is stubborn (Archer), blames players, vanilla, builds his w-l records on easy teams, and has wtf losses. At BC, he reached bowls by beating up on the lower tier teams in the Big East, had a terrible record against the top teams, and probably one of the biggest reasons they won all those bowl games because they were shipped to lower bowl games because of their fans. Yes the injuries have been bad, but I don’t know that we would have been much better in the win column.

  6. coach13 08/09/2010 at 11:59 AM #

    I don’t see TOB making it even through year 5. Unless they really surprise this year, and recruiting really blasts off…soon…where is the improvement gonna come from next year. It’s puzzling how I can have more confidence in Sid than TOB right now, but that in my mind is par for the course as a wolfpack fan. Things never…ever…go good for the Pack. Apparently we all need to go to church and pray more….alot more. Un-friggin-believable.

    Thanks for the topic. I am suddenly disgusted with the state of affairs again…or maybe I just forgot for some reason.

  7. section2chuck 08/09/2010 at 12:01 PM #

    We are staring @ another 5-7 season, or worse 4-8. Our conference schedule is pretty brutal, with our 3 out of division games vs. (GaTech, VaTech, and UNC)..Non-conference @ UCF, and I will go ahead and say the ECU game will be a shootout, with that Air Raid offense v. our Defense. Clemson(owns us lately), etc. I will this will be TOB’s last season in Raleigh, because Debbie Yow has put him on notice. There is no way he could survive another season of 5-7 and not lose his job. Also Russell Wilson gone after this season, and Nate Irving. The writing is on the wall, at least the tailgating will once again be great…

  8. tvp1 08/09/2010 at 12:06 PM #

    Sidney.

    Sidney at least has a chance because of his recruiting and ability to sell the program. We have shown flashes under Sidney. Sidney also had a learning curve coming into the college game the first time so a slow start is not necessarily a death sentence. This is not to say that Sid will make it but he has a shot at least. This year will tell us a lot.

    For TOB, if it was going to happen, it would have happened by now. Yet we are about to start year 4 and there is little hope. Prospects for this season are dim, we lose Russell and Nate after this year, and recruiting has fallen off a cliff.

    I basically lost hope with TOB last year after (1) we went up to Boston, quit during the third quarter, and lost by 32, and (2) the team/staff horrendously botched the end of half clock management at the end of the first half against FSU, which may well have cost us that game (and that wasn’t the first time we’ve screwed up clock management under TOB.) I just don’t see any driver for things to get better. His dismissal seems like a matter of when, not if.

  9. stejen 08/09/2010 at 12:22 PM #

    Barring an abysmal year I don’t really think either coach is in serious trouble. Yes, things need to get better but lets look at it from the perspective that both coaches have not shown any intentions of leaving so there is something to be said for having a head coach that you know plans on staying. Second, even though you want better things are not terrible. Both coaches have gotten their teams on the right track from the train wreck that they inherited. Lastly, I just think Yow has more pressing needs to tend to now then to start riding Lowe or TOB.

  10. islandbreeze 08/09/2010 at 12:30 PM #

    Losing to Duke at home isn’t the right track.

  11. bradleyb123 08/09/2010 at 12:41 PM #

    If I had to pick, I’d pick Lowe, too. We knew Sid would be getting on-the-job training when we hired a guy with zero college coaching experience. I believe Sid is learning. But he’s recruiting with the best in the nation now.

    I can excuse the dismal records under TOB as he rebuilds our football program. I didn’t expect immediate results. It takes longer to build a football program than it does a basketball program. You need to have a LOT more good players, and it takes a while for good recruits to grow into football-ready bodies (usually). And TOB’s players have suffered an inordinate amount of injuries. We probably could have had a little better record the last two years if not for that.

    The problem I have with TOB is his 2011 recruiting, which is non-existent. Sidney’s is down compared to last season, too. But I believe Sidney has a better chance at turning it around. I also think Sidney has a better shot at doing something good this year, which will also help his recruiting if he does. I believe TOB is on a hotter seat, and that is being used against him on the recruiting trail. And the outlook for football this year is not one that would really boost recruiting.

    So I think TOB is losing out. Unless we have an unexpectedly great year in football, one that could turn around recruiting, I imagine TOB will be gone soon.

  12. tjfoose1 08/09/2010 at 12:43 PM #

    A week into fall camp of his fourth year and this is where some of you want to go? Really? Nice.

    Either TOB flames out this year, or some of you will be eating crow and owing apologies.

    Nice place to be put yourself as a fan.

    I, for one, with all things considered, realize it is too early to pass judgement on TOB.

    It finally looks like real, positive change is taking place in Wolfpack athletics, so I guess we gotta find something to cry about and perpetuate the ‘woe is me’ attitude.

    This is a topic better discussed in April, certainly not now.

    tobaccordshow: Easy, tiger. No one is saying either of them should be fired. We’re discussing a topic that is topic worthy in the dead sports period. If any one has jumped to conclusions, it was you.

  13. WolftownVA81 08/09/2010 at 12:44 PM #

    This is hard to say but I’d have to go with Sid. I’m giving him the edge based on incoming recruits. I would have been willing to go with TOB, even if we have another subpar year, if we’d seen more coaching changes in the off season. Loyalty is great but you have to know when it’s time to cut bait. His decision to keep Archer may cost him.

  14. bradleyb123 08/09/2010 at 12:49 PM #

    I believe losing Sidney would be more devastating to our basketball program than losing TOB would be to our football program. Sidney has some great momentum going. At this point, TOB — not so much. If I had to pick one coach to unload and start over with, I’m going with TOB. But only if we’d be willing to bring in a good name coach.

  15. bradleyb123 08/09/2010 at 12:54 PM #

    “A week into fall camp of his fourth year and this is where some of you want to go? Really? Nice.”

    We were asked to compare the two coaches, so we are.

    Either TOB flames out this year, or some of you will be eating crow and owing apologies.”

    I won’t apologize for anything. We’re calling things as we see them now. If TOB does well this year, and recruiting picks up, then he will have done about the only thing that could save his job (probably).

    You might like what we have on the football team now, but this hole in recruiting (if it holds up as it is) will hurt us a few years from now, not immediately.

    When a coach has stopped recruiting, as much as you may like the man, it’s time for him to go. We have four recruits, and one or two are three-star guys. We’re on someone’s list as having the WORST recruiting class in the nation for BCS. It’s not just bad. We are THE WORST right now, and we’re not projected to have a good year on the field this year. What affect will a fourth consecutive dismal season have on already dismal recruiting? You do the math.

  16. Statefan1998 08/09/2010 at 12:57 PM #

    Stejen,

    “Yes, things need to get better but lets look at it from the perspective that both coaches have not shown any intentions of leaving so there is something to be said for having a head coach that you know plans on staying.”

    I don’t think any program is looking for these guys.

  17. Plz2BStateFan 08/09/2010 at 1:01 PM #

    There is something about this football team that makes me think we will surprise.

    Its like a small spec of light that’s waiting to be found.

    Every single projection, ranking, etc is all based on last years defense. The RB situation isn’t horrible with our options. Our O-Line has more game experience than people think.

    But it always comes back to the defense. I dont necessarily believe it myself. It might be the fan in me that will not give up on the team, but I really dont think that anyone cant accurately quantify the effect of the changes since last year. The defense is 1 year bigger, 1 year stronger, 1 year smarter, and pissed as hell because they have heard nothing but how bad they were.

    If you want to motivate a competitive person, you tell him that he/she will fail. It worked for Jordan his entire career. So much so that he devoted a large portion of his hall of fame induction speech to those that told him he would fail.

    And add Tenuta’s aggressive style(not to mention his Dana Bible type wealth of information) to that, and I think our defense can surprise people.

    I know, I know. Your saying “BULLSHIT! I saw the Duke game! I saw the Wake game! I have never in my life seen a defense that bad! Bring back Amato! TOB can go to hell! I would literally stab Archer myself if I could!” etc. etc. etc.

    And I know that none of what I am talking about is really quantifiable. But its the only reason we will improve at all. If you dont think it holds any weight then you are forced to disagree with me because you cant see anyway we will improve.

  18. PackMan97 08/09/2010 at 1:12 PM #

    I would certainly think that Lowe is in a do or die year. Thankfully, he has all the parts in place to do this year. A solid nucleus returning, great freshmen looking to make a splash and a sport where one or two stars can carry a team. Of course, I also think Lowe is on a much hotter seat as well. He’s got to have breakout season this year or he never will.

  19. Plz2BStateFan 08/09/2010 at 1:14 PM #

    It really is amazing how 1 year can change things.

  20. newt 08/09/2010 at 1:20 PM #

    I like both of them and actually think we are in a good place.

    I think it’s easy to forget how different football and basketball are.

    The keys to success in basketball are great recruiting and motivating your talent to win. So personality has a lot to do with being a great basketball coach – K being a notable exception. It’s easy to predict how good a team will be in basketball – you just look at the talent.

    The keys to success in football are work ethic, planning & execution, and teamwork. A good head football coach has to be an excellent manager. It’s hard to predict what teams will be good in football because there are so many nonobvious factors that go into improvement – understanding a scheme or slightly improved footwork. About the only consistent factor for success is great quarterback play.

    6 years ago, we had a flamboyant football coach and a serious managerial basketball coach – I think we’re better off now and will see the results soon. We have great players on our basketball team. For football, we have a coach that is known for developing teams at the fundamental levels (e.g. O-line), and we are strong at QB.

  21. coach13 08/09/2010 at 1:20 PM #

    tjfoose1 and Stejen must have skipped the topic. Anyhow, I wouldn’t mind seeing Tenuta getting a shot at the top spot. You know he can coach and he has some fire in him as well. I like hearing him talk football.

  22. NCStatePride 08/09/2010 at 1:27 PM #

    I haven’t heard anyone mention it, and I’m actually kind of shocked:

    If nothing changes, and TOB leaves after next season, where does that put NCSU football? One of the biggest excuses/rationales for TOB’s sub-par performance has been the ‘terrible situation his predecessor left him’. Well, I look at the team Chuck left for TOB (mediocre, but managable) and compare that to the team TOB may leave for the next coach, and that just makes me want to puke.

  23. Plz2BStateFan 08/09/2010 at 1:32 PM #

    This team is in MUCH better shape for the next coach if TOB leaves than when Chuck left.

    There are no glaring holes at all. Some positions might be a little thin or young, but its basically a complete team now.

    Lets say we get a new Fball coach. It will( more than likely) be the case that he has instant improvment because of the players in place. TOB either wasnt given enough time or wasnt using what he had correctly.

    Then you wait 3 years and see if that new coaches recruits are worth anything.

  24. VaWolf82 08/09/2010 at 1:39 PM #

    I would suspect that Lowe will have the “better” year, but the bigger comparison for Lowe is “good”; not just better than a bad football team. Looking longer term, one good year in recruiting does little/nothing to build my confidence in Lowe.

    TOB’s success at BC hasn’t really followed him to Raleigh. Many of the reasons are beyond his control, but not all of them.

    If TOB were younger (with the same record of success at BC), then I would put my money on him. But right now, I don’t have much confidence in either coach.

  25. bradleyb123 08/09/2010 at 2:14 PM #

    Here’s why my confidence in TOB is faltering, unless he turns it around this year.

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/430735-the-15-worst-college-football-recruiting-classes-in-the-bcs-conferences#page/16

    At least we can finally say we’re #1 at SOMETHING. 😉

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