Breaking Down State’s NIT Chances

09-10 Basketball General99

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N. Texas beat Troy last night sending Troy to the NIT by winning the regular season. That leaves 28 NIT bids left. More later….
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By winning 3 of our final 4 regular season games, Sidney Lowe put NC State back on the NIT bubble after a horrific middle stretch of conference play. When the NCAA purchased the NIT in 2005, the selection process was changed to mirror the process used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee. Before 2005, almost every major conference team with a .500+ record made the NIT so these programs could host home games to generate revenue with ticket sales. Many of us probably remember hosting NIT games in Reynolds during the early years of the Sendek era. To show you how different today’s NIT is compared to pre-2005, in Sidney Lowe’s first season we played Drexel in the 1st round on the road in a hostile environment:

While the students were certainly upset over being left out of the NCAAs, it sure didn’t douse their enthusiasm inside the cozy and steamy 2,700-seat Daskalakis Athletic Center. The DAC was rocking from the moment the fans were let in.

For major conference teams picked to finish near the bottom of their conference, making the NIT actually means something now. It is at least a step in the right direction as it is something that now has to be earned. The NIT attempts to select the 32 most deserving teams after the NCAA sets its field of 65. Like the NCAA handing out bids to conference tournament winners weakening the field of 64, the NIT also gives automatic bids to any conference regular season winner that doesn’t win their conference tournament. In most years, this has reduced the number of at-large bids by 5-8 spots making it even more difficult to make the NIT for major conference teams.

So far this year the following teams won their conference regular season title, but didn’t win their conference championship:

32. Stony Brook
31. Coastal Carolina
30. Jacksonville

By not winning their conference tournaments, another team from their respective conferences took a spot in the NCAA that wouldn’t have made the post-season otherwise. So with these conferences going from 1 post-season team(an NCAA bid to the tourney winner), they now take up two post season spots with the regular season winner being guaranteed a spot in the NIT. So right now, only 29 bids for the NIT remain.

This site has NC State as the 29th team in the tournament which would make us the last team in the field as things stand right now. I have been tracking this website for a few years, so I have verified they do have a good handle on this process. As far as what other teams NC State fans should be pulling for this week, the site breaks it down nicely for us:

Over in the NIT, Stony Brook hogs another automatic bid, but it’s been mostly good news for NIT bubble hopefuls as the majority of 1 seeds are holding serve in one-bid leagues so far. Pending potential bid-stealers for you to root for: Weber St. (BSky), UCSB (BW), Kent St. (MAC), Morgan St. (MEAC), Quinnipiac (NEC), Lehigh (PAT), Sam Houston St. (Slnd), Oakland (SUM), Troy (SB), Jackson st. (SWAC), Utah St. (WAC). With 11 such situations in play, I’d expect to see something like 4 more bids disappearing by Selection Sunday.

If you want to follow these teams to give yourself another reason to watch Championship Week, then here is the schedule for each of these teams:

-Weber St. (Big Sky) – Semifinals vs. Portland St., 3/9 9 pm; Finals 3/10
-UCSB (Big West) – Semifinals vs. ????, 3/12
-Morgan St. (MEAC) – Quarterfinals vs. ???, 3/10 or 3/11
-Kent St (MAC) – Quarterfinals, 3/11 7 pm
-Quinnipiac (NEC) – Finals vs. Robert Morris, 3/10 7pm (these teams tied for regular season title)
-Lehigh (PAT) – Finals vs. Lafayette, 3/12 4:45 pm
-Sam Houston St.(Sland) – Quarterfinals vs Nichols St., 3/10 7 pm
-Oakland (Summit) – Finals vs. IUPUI, 3/9 9 pm
-Troy (SB) – Finals vs. N. Texas, 3/9 7 pm (these teams tied for regular season title)
-Jackson St. (SWAC) – Quarterfinals vs. Grambling, 3/10
-Utah St (WAC) – Quarterfinals vs. Boise St, 3/11 3 pm

Bold denotes games played today.

Most likely 2-5 of these teams will lose in their conference tournaments, so there is no doubt that NC State must win its first round ACC tournament game to make the NIT. Additionally, we want to pull for favorites in most/all of the other major conference tournaments. We don’t want a UVA, UNC, or BC (or the teams from other conferences on the NIT bubble) going on runs this weekend.

Either way, a win against a Clemson team with a strong RPI should make NC State almost a lock for an NIT bid.

09-10 Basketball General

99 Responses to Breaking Down State’s NIT Chances

  1. frankiepack 03/10/2010 at 9:53 AM #

    It may be true about penn state,but it is not a steeping stone to success. The Nit in the past would not take teams that finished 9th ,10th or 11th in major conferences or take the likes of a troy and other mid to lower majors.

  2. Howler1 03/10/2010 at 9:56 AM #

    So now you want to settle for second rate, how ironic. You ran Herb out of town for not advancing past sweet sixteen in the NCAA, which He made in his last 4 years. Sidney made the statement that just getting to the NCAA was no good enough, you have to win games and advance in the big dance.
    I say “make the NCAA or stay home.”
    By hiring Sidney, the basketball program has been set back 10 years.
    Quit settling for mediocrity or you will always get what you always got.
    This program is in bad shape and keeping Lee Fowler and Sidney Lowe around will not change a thing.
    Why won’t all you fans admit the obvious!! I am tired of losing and all the excuses.
    NO NIT and NO MORE SIDNEY……..

  3. Wolfy__79 03/10/2010 at 9:58 AM #

    a hwsnbn team, if it were actually good should have won the pac10 as bad as they are. i think that illustrates a high point on why he doesn’t belong in the ACC.

  4. Wolfy__79 03/10/2010 at 10:02 AM #

    these players would benefit from NIT play: painter, howell, wood, mays, davis, vandenburg.

    the upperclassmen could use a little extra pt but i think there’s an upside to the NIT for the underclassmen getting more experience.

  5. Daily Update 03/10/2010 at 10:35 AM #

    Frankiepack: The NIT in the past would take any major conference team that finished .500.

    -In 1997, they took us when we finished 4-12 and in 7th place out of 8 teams.
    -In 1998, they took us at 5-11 with a 7th place finish out of 8 teams.

    The difference now is that being from a major conference with a .500+ record doesn’t automatically get you in the NIT. It is clearly much harder to get into the NIT today than it was pre-2005. They use measureables like wins against top 25, top 50, top 100, road wins, etc…just like the NCAA tournament. It is a much more difficult field today than it used to be.

    Is sitting on the couch watching TV a stepping stone to the NCAA? Do you suggest that our team not practice next year or play games to get better?

    The idea that more practice and more games doesn’t help is ludicrous.

  6. frankiepack 03/10/2010 at 10:49 AM #

    Sorry boss I go back aways before the ncaa made the nit irrelevant.

  7. ncsu_kappa 03/10/2010 at 10:50 AM #

    Wolfy_79 – Herb’s team wasn’t supposed to be good this year. He lost his top two players to the draft and this was supposed to be a down year. The reason he won COY is because of what he accomplished with all role players. He had to play Eric Boateng for gosh sakes. Give the man some credit… haha.

    I can see this year’s team winning its first round matchup just like he usually did with us in the tourney.

  8. Wulfpack 03/10/2010 at 11:06 AM #

    Wolfy, I would argue with you except we don’t play some of those guys for some reason.

    As I said, any bid is better than none at all. However, NIT success has not been a past predictor of NCAA success. Completely different animal.

  9. Daily Update 03/10/2010 at 11:53 AM #

    I guess some people subscribe to the theory that if you say something enough then it will become true. It is a total myth that NIT success doesn’t often lead to teams reaching the NCAA tournament.

    Here are just a few quick examples:

    -In 2002, Memphis won the NIT. They made their first NCAA appearance in 2003 after missing the tournament since 1996. They have only missed a single NCAA tournament since winning the NIT.

    -In 2008, Ohio St. won the NIT. In 2009, OSU made the NCAA tournament and will be at least a #2 seed in 2010.

    -In 2007, Clemson was a finalist in the NIT. Clemson has since made the tournament in 2008, 2009, and will again in 2010.

    -In 2009, Baylor was a finalist in the NIT. They will make the tournament in 2010.

    -In 2007, W. Va won the NIT. In, 2008 they reached the S-16. They reached the tournament in 2009 and they will again in 2010.

    So that is 4 examples just from the last 3 years. I am sure there are other examples of teams who have played in the NIT in the last several years that then went on to making the NCAA tournament. The larger point being is that more practice and more games can’t have a negative impact on NC State’s program considering our current state.

  10. packalum44 03/10/2010 at 1:43 PM #

    “The idea that more practice and more games doesn’t help is ludicrous.”

    Most of us are being sarcastic but seriously, think it would make a huge difference to practice a few more times to lose the first game of the NIT? How much would our players really benefit?

    For instance Painter and Vandenburg didn’t improve at all during the season save the fact they were instructed to quit shooting. Painter was a 4 star recruit. Plus just the eyesore from hanging another one of those disgusting banners from the rafters at the RBC is worth the cost of a few lost practices. I’m horrible and pretentious I know.

  11. tuckerdorm1983 03/10/2010 at 2:03 PM #

    and those hapless heels. will they get to the NIT. If it is based on RPI they are 86th

    http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/polls?poll=5

    and we are not in the top 100

    Clemson is 27th
    GT is 44th

  12. tuckerdorm1983 03/10/2010 at 2:04 PM #

    we are 105

  13. Wulfpack 03/10/2010 at 2:08 PM #

    Daily Update those are good examples. I’ll back off my stance that NIT doesn’t do a whole lot of good for teams. However, for every example you show, I’ll throw you a South Carolina, a Penn State, and Ole Miss or a UMass. Mixed bag.

    But for us (which is the point) clearly yes it would be a good thing. I hope we can beat Clemson and do some damage.

  14. Pack Mentality 03/10/2010 at 3:32 PM #

    Daily Update,

    There is no proof that the loser’s tournament caused those team’s success in the next few years. It was probably due to the fact that they are good programs with good talent and good coaching as opposed to being crowned #66 in the nation the previous year, or making the field and winning a couple of games.

    I’m not saying that going to the loser’s tournament will hurt anything or that we shouldn’t go if invited. But I believe that if we win next year it will be due to talent and not due to an also ran tournament from the previous year.

  15. Rochester 03/10/2010 at 3:46 PM #

    I’m with Pack Mentality. You have a cause-correlation thing going here. Those programs were going to be better the next year regardless of whether they played in the NIT or not. The NIT didn’t make them better.

  16. freshmanin83 03/10/2010 at 3:57 PM #

    Wait a minute now, with all of this talk about going to the NIT you would think we were not going to win the ACC tournament. lol

  17. Wolfy__79 03/10/2010 at 4:50 PM #

    i’ve seen improvement out of painter this year. he only get probably 5 minutes a game. horner and howell have his minutes, so he’s obviously not winning the pt. he and vandenburg could definetly see some more playing time and improve.

    i agree that the nit won’t make the team better as a whole, but the younger players can get some more experience on the court. either way, the incoming talent will have a larger impact on next season than contiuing play in the NIT.. but i wouldn’t turn away the oppurtunity to play some more games.

  18. Wolfy__79 03/10/2010 at 4:54 PM #

    Wait a minute now, with all of this talk about going to the NIT you would think we were not going to win the ACC tournament. lol””

    i’m thinking the same thing. i read an article a few minutes ago about how clemson is mainly practicing an energetic press to turn us over. and citing their 30% effort from 3pt land in ACC play. i feel pretty good about our matchup tommorrow night. as of late, the tigers have looked one-dimensional to me, hopefully that vintage clemson meltdown at the end of the season will emerge.

  19. Packaddict 03/10/2010 at 5:35 PM #

    I think most would agree that Lowe still has a lot to learn about coaching at the college level. Maybe having an opportunity to coach in the NIT will help him continue to grow as a coach. Having said this I still think we are a long shot to make the NIT. It will probably take atleast a win over Clemson and maybe one more.

  20. PoppaJohn 03/10/2010 at 8:39 PM #

    “…I still think we are a long shot to make the NIT. It will probably take at least a win over Clemson and maybe one more.”

    Totally agree – I don’t see us beating Clemson.

  21. Daily Update 03/10/2010 at 10:13 PM #

    The more you play and the more you practice, the better you get at basketball. I can’t believe people would try to argue against that.

  22. wufpup76 03/11/2010 at 3:44 AM #

    Weber St. and Quinnipiac now automatically into the NIT field as well …

    The slots are closing.

  23. coachkoh 03/11/2010 at 9:38 AM #

    I saw this about those conf champs losing and and it appears we are now out of the nit bubble picture for now.

  24. Conrad 03/11/2010 at 11:37 PM #

    The NIT would be a great thing for a team that was predicted to finish died last in the ACC plus would win only 13 to 15 games. Now remember this team is still below ACC standard in skillful player. Mainly at the both guards positions with no PG’s that has the ability to lead a team & cut down on the turn overs. Which many of you guys here seem to believe that Gonz & Degand has those skills. Well both of them have had 2 yrs to prove it. And they have fail in a big way. This team his no SG with the ability to create his own offense nor someone else a shot either. But all of that will come to an end when Harrow & Brown gets here along with CJ Leslie & quality bench. So again coaching alone cant win games nor titles without highly talented skillful player. Something that Lowe is building & will be final next yr.

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