Breaking Down State’s NIT Chances

09-10 Basketball General99

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N. Texas beat Troy last night sending Troy to the NIT by winning the regular season. That leaves 28 NIT bids left. More later….
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By winning 3 of our final 4 regular season games, Sidney Lowe put NC State back on the NIT bubble after a horrific middle stretch of conference play. When the NCAA purchased the NIT in 2005, the selection process was changed to mirror the process used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee. Before 2005, almost every major conference team with a .500+ record made the NIT so these programs could host home games to generate revenue with ticket sales. Many of us probably remember hosting NIT games in Reynolds during the early years of the Sendek era. To show you how different today’s NIT is compared to pre-2005, in Sidney Lowe’s first season we played Drexel in the 1st round on the road in a hostile environment:

While the students were certainly upset over being left out of the NCAAs, it sure didn’t douse their enthusiasm inside the cozy and steamy 2,700-seat Daskalakis Athletic Center. The DAC was rocking from the moment the fans were let in.

For major conference teams picked to finish near the bottom of their conference, making the NIT actually means something now. It is at least a step in the right direction as it is something that now has to be earned. The NIT attempts to select the 32 most deserving teams after the NCAA sets its field of 65. Like the NCAA handing out bids to conference tournament winners weakening the field of 64, the NIT also gives automatic bids to any conference regular season winner that doesn’t win their conference tournament. In most years, this has reduced the number of at-large bids by 5-8 spots making it even more difficult to make the NIT for major conference teams.

So far this year the following teams won their conference regular season title, but didn’t win their conference championship:

32. Stony Brook
31. Coastal Carolina
30. Jacksonville

By not winning their conference tournaments, another team from their respective conferences took a spot in the NCAA that wouldn’t have made the post-season otherwise. So with these conferences going from 1 post-season team(an NCAA bid to the tourney winner), they now take up two post season spots with the regular season winner being guaranteed a spot in the NIT. So right now, only 29 bids for the NIT remain.

This site has NC State as the 29th team in the tournament which would make us the last team in the field as things stand right now. I have been tracking this website for a few years, so I have verified they do have a good handle on this process. As far as what other teams NC State fans should be pulling for this week, the site breaks it down nicely for us:

Over in the NIT, Stony Brook hogs another automatic bid, but it’s been mostly good news for NIT bubble hopefuls as the majority of 1 seeds are holding serve in one-bid leagues so far. Pending potential bid-stealers for you to root for: Weber St. (BSky), UCSB (BW), Kent St. (MAC), Morgan St. (MEAC), Quinnipiac (NEC), Lehigh (PAT), Sam Houston St. (Slnd), Oakland (SUM), Troy (SB), Jackson st. (SWAC), Utah St. (WAC). With 11 such situations in play, I’d expect to see something like 4 more bids disappearing by Selection Sunday.

If you want to follow these teams to give yourself another reason to watch Championship Week, then here is the schedule for each of these teams:

-Weber St. (Big Sky) – Semifinals vs. Portland St., 3/9 9 pm; Finals 3/10
-UCSB (Big West) – Semifinals vs. ????, 3/12
-Morgan St. (MEAC) – Quarterfinals vs. ???, 3/10 or 3/11
-Kent St (MAC) – Quarterfinals, 3/11 7 pm
-Quinnipiac (NEC) – Finals vs. Robert Morris, 3/10 7pm (these teams tied for regular season title)
-Lehigh (PAT) – Finals vs. Lafayette, 3/12 4:45 pm
-Sam Houston St.(Sland) – Quarterfinals vs Nichols St., 3/10 7 pm
-Oakland (Summit) – Finals vs. IUPUI, 3/9 9 pm
-Troy (SB) – Finals vs. N. Texas, 3/9 7 pm (these teams tied for regular season title)
-Jackson St. (SWAC) – Quarterfinals vs. Grambling, 3/10
-Utah St (WAC) – Quarterfinals vs. Boise St, 3/11 3 pm

Bold denotes games played today.

Most likely 2-5 of these teams will lose in their conference tournaments, so there is no doubt that NC State must win its first round ACC tournament game to make the NIT. Additionally, we want to pull for favorites in most/all of the other major conference tournaments. We don’t want a UVA, UNC, or BC (or the teams from other conferences on the NIT bubble) going on runs this weekend.

Either way, a win against a Clemson team with a strong RPI should make NC State almost a lock for an NIT bid.

09-10 Basketball General

99 Responses to Breaking Down State’s NIT Chances

  1. Daily Update 03/09/2010 at 2:59 PM #

    Packfan03: I have no idea really. I don’t even know for certain that there is a cost, but I have seen it rumored there is one.

    There are definitely good reasons for NC State university to play in these tournaments based on specific things happening in Raleigh right now.

  2. packfan03 03/09/2010 at 3:01 PM #

    Daily Update,

    I tend to agree – I don’t like the idea of turning down opportunities, period.

    I’m looking forward to reading whatever information you may have.

  3. choppack1 03/09/2010 at 3:10 PM #

    “The NIT is significantly better than the college bowl system we have today. At least if you win you get to keep playing and have a chance of winning a trophy.
    The bowl system is pretty worthless”

    I disagree – I’ve gone to plenty of bowl games…never been to an NIT game outside of Raleigh…and I have a sneaking suspicion that I never will – unless a family member is involved.

    The TV ratings probably paint a different picture too…

  4. Rick 03/09/2010 at 3:37 PM #

    I call it March Sadness

  5. Rochester 03/09/2010 at 3:37 PM #

    Until they rename it the Meineke NIT, I prefer the NIT over the scrubby, pre-New Year’s bowls. There are way, way too many college bowl games. What is anyone playing for on Dec. 19? It’s like giving every kid a trophy on field day, even the fat ones who couldn’t finish running the three-legged race. If you can’t win at least 7 (and really 8 ) games during the regular season, you don’t deserve a bowl game.

    And if you’re in a major conference and can’t make the NIT, you don’t deserve to be in a tournament.

  6. packfan03 03/09/2010 at 3:51 PM #

    I disagree – I’ve gone to plenty of bowl games…never been to an NIT game outside of Raleigh…and I have a sneaking suspicion that I never will – unless a family member is involved.

    Your viewing habits and travel plans have no bearing on the quality of the NIT vs. the quality of the bowl system. Our record prior to the Papa John’s bowl two years ago was .500 – our record in basketball this season will be superior to that and we still may not make it into the NIT.

    It’s difficult to juxtapose the two systems popularity, because they are marketed in different ways. The NIT is marketed seperate from the NCAA tournament. The bowl system is viewed as one large crescendo to the BCS championship game.

    A winning record in football nearly guarantees a bowl bid. The same can’t be said for the NIT. I’m not making the argument that we should be “thrilled” to be in the NIT (if it happens), just that we shouldn’t have a knee-jerk reaction stating we shouldn’t accept an NIT bid.

  7. Daily Update 03/09/2010 at 3:52 PM #

    Stick a fork in UConn. They are headed to the NIT.

  8. ldr of the pk 75 03/09/2010 at 3:55 PM #

    For anyone saying the NIT is a better tourney than it used to be, I disagree. When I was in school, the “dance” consisted of 32 teams, the better conferences such as the ACC seeded straight to the “16”. And, only conference champs went to the dance. The quality of teams available to the NIT was much superior.

    I’m not this old, but I believe in the days of the 30’s 40’s and perhaps even early 50’s, the NIT was even looked on by some as “The” big tournament.

    That there is a tournament consisting of the #’s 67 and worse teams in the country, and another tournament to use the rest of the dregs, mirrors what has become a norm for society. You participate, you’re a winner. Ask the employers of the country how bad this type philosophy has been for the “quality” of the employee candidate pool.

    Going to a post season tournament, just like going to a bowl game should be a reward for a good season, for accomplishment, not an acknowledgement of having batted .500.

  9. GAWolf 03/09/2010 at 3:58 PM #

    Our guys could CERTAINLY use the extra practice shooting the ball into the hoop.

  10. Daily Update 03/09/2010 at 4:09 PM #

    Maybe UConn will turn down an NIT bid? Lots of stuff going on with that program.

    http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=342&f=2871&t=5705661

    They are actually discussing this topic on ESPN 2 right now. The color analysts are basically saying UConn should shut it down for the year and show some pride(UConn is actually good and was a #1 seed last year) by turning an NIT bid down. The players looked like they were sleep walking in the game and they lost their last 4-5 games.

    This result could help the Pack.

  11. choppack1 03/09/2010 at 4:30 PM #

    “Your viewing habits and travel plans have no bearing on the quality of the NIT vs. the quality of the bowl system.”
    What about the rest of the country’s? I was talking about national TV ratings – not the what my TV is tuned into.

    “Our record prior to the Papa John’s bowl two years ago was .500 – our record in basketball this season will be superior to that and we still may not make it into the NIT.”

    Yea, but 2 years ago, our CONFERENCE record was 4-4…compared to a basketball record of 5-11 (or 6-10 or 8-12). If we were 8-8 this year, we’d be playing for an NCAA tourney bid.

    Please, please don’t throw in the 10 games most college basketball teams play (roughly 1/3 of their schedule) against teams that are hopelessly matched. In 2008 in football, our record was 5-6 regular season vs. legit competition. Heck, this year, it was 3-7 (which is pretty damn similar to our 5-11 conference record which will get that us that sparkling NIT bid.)

    You realize how rare it is for an ACC basketball team to have less than 10 wins total?

  12. packalum44 03/09/2010 at 5:24 PM #

    This might make be a horrible person and fan but I could care less if we make the NIT. If I saw player development I’d see an advantage but honestly I haven’t seen anything substantial in the Lowe era. Besides the blue chips (Hickson, Smith), the players just seem to get lucky and have a good night or suck.

  13. 61Packer 03/09/2010 at 7:19 PM #

    I’ll echo packalum44 and be even more horrible by saying that I too don’t want to see the Wolfpack in the NIT, let alone the CBI. When you finish 5-11 in the ACC, you’ve had a BAD season, plus the previous 3 seasons were also BAD. Don’t extend a headache, please. Nothing short of winning the ACCT or winning at least 2 or 3 games in the ACCT and then blowing away the NIT field would help this team next season, let alone our program standing.

    For those who think we’ve got a good shot at the NIT, reality is going to slap you in the face by around 10:30 this Thursday night.

    State in the NIT would be another chance to be embarrassed by UNC. The NIT folks want to make money, and they’d see dollars by sending us to play the Heels in Carmichael.

    So much for fuh-cilities……

  14. tuckerdorm1983 03/09/2010 at 8:13 PM #

    cbi?

  15. Wolfy__79 03/09/2010 at 8:51 PM #

    this team will need to have their shi# together for the NIT. there will be some pissed off hungry teams there!

  16. b 03/09/2010 at 9:44 PM #

    Does anyone else not see the 1st round matchup with Sendek coming?

    I’d love to see that either way, particulalry as it is a no win situation for HWSNBN lovers. At best they can say State would have won an NIT game if we would have kept him, if Sid and Co pull it out we won’t hear about it anymore.

    Where’s ole-what’s-his-name, woodhead or whatever, to defend Herb when he is back in the NIT where he belongs?

  17. Pack Mentality 03/09/2010 at 9:44 PM #

    As far as I’m concerned the Pack’s season is over after the ACC tournament unless they win the whole thing and make the NCAAs. I think they should accept any invite they get, but I am definitely one of the people who won’t pay any attention or care what happens in any second rate also ran of a tournament. There are only so many hours in the day and I can only give a crap about so much before it is a waste of time, and the NIT crosses that line of not giving a crap for me.

  18. Wulfpack 03/10/2010 at 6:45 AM #

    “Does anyone else not see the 1st round matchup with Sendek coming?”

    Most have ASU in the big dance, barring a first round loss in the Pac 10. The favroites are for the most part winning the conference tournaments, so the Sun Devils may be in. If they get to the finals of the Pac 10 tourney, they’re probably a lock.

    If we got in to the NIT, we would be one of the last teams in. If ASU goes to the NIT, they would be a #1 seed — so it’s possible as #1 meets #8 in the first round of the NIT. That’s an awful long way for us to travel though for a first round NIT game. They’d probably keep us on the east coast or in the midwest, but we could definitely meet down the road.

  19. Daily Update 03/10/2010 at 7:13 AM #

    Wufpak: Some have ASU in the tournament, but most have said the loser of the ASU/Washington semifinal will play themselves out of the tournament. ASU still needs at least two wins.

    One bad result for us last night with N. Texas beating Troy. That takes up 1 additional spot in the NIT, so we are down to 28 NIT bids left. Beating Clemson is an absolute must.

  20. frankiepack 03/10/2010 at 7:24 AM #

    The NIT is in no way better than it once was,it is completly deluted and penn state won it last year. Check and see how well they did this year.

  21. philliepacker 03/10/2010 at 7:56 AM #

    Well you do have to look at mid major tournaments,while winner gets ncaat the loser may take a spot in the nit . I say or chances are slim and very lowe.
    Another factor against us again is our weak ooc sos which is 285.

  22. Wulfpack 03/10/2010 at 8:32 AM #

    As far as the NIT goes, obviously a bid is better than nothing at all. The team could use the extra prqactice and a little confidence going into next year. However, I am of the opinion that it really doesn’t mean squat in the grand scheme of things. USC won it two years in a row and they are still also rans. And PSU won it last year and they stink even worse. But for us, yea it’s a step in the right direction, though it pains me to admit that this is the state of our program. Next year, NIT bubble status is Sid’s pink slip. Let us all hope it does not come to that.

  23. Daily Update 03/10/2010 at 8:57 AM #

    Frankiepack: It is definitely better these days if you value RPI/Sagarin/Pomperoy type of ratings.

    Penn St. may have graduated a bunch of players. Winning the NIT might have been a peak for that program. If Penn St. didn’t graduate a bunch of players and they added two 5 star recruits and a 4 star recruit, then Penn St. likely would have been an NCAA tournament team this year.

  24. Daily Update 03/10/2010 at 9:07 AM #

    Frankiepack: Penn St. lost three of their top 5 scores, their top rebounder, and their #2 assist guy. They added 1 *** player and 3 ** players.

    Penn St. isn’t better because they are less experienced and less talented.

    NC State loses a *** and a **, returns many players who have played a lot of minutes, and adds 2 ***** players and a 1 **** player.

    The Penn St. and NC State situations couldn’t be anymore different. That definitely isn’t a good example of why a team should turn down an NIT bid. If you don’t think practice and playing in games helps players improve, then you recommend they sit around and do nothing?

  25. tuckerdorm1983 03/10/2010 at 9:20 AM #

    look it seems to me to be that if we beat clemson we go to the NIT, if not then WTNY

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