Breaking Down State’s NIT Chances

09-10 Basketball General99

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N. Texas beat Troy last night sending Troy to the NIT by winning the regular season. That leaves 28 NIT bids left. More later….
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By winning 3 of our final 4 regular season games, Sidney Lowe put NC State back on the NIT bubble after a horrific middle stretch of conference play. When the NCAA purchased the NIT in 2005, the selection process was changed to mirror the process used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee. Before 2005, almost every major conference team with a .500+ record made the NIT so these programs could host home games to generate revenue with ticket sales. Many of us probably remember hosting NIT games in Reynolds during the early years of the Sendek era. To show you how different today’s NIT is compared to pre-2005, in Sidney Lowe’s first season we played Drexel in the 1st round on the road in a hostile environment:

While the students were certainly upset over being left out of the NCAAs, it sure didn’t douse their enthusiasm inside the cozy and steamy 2,700-seat Daskalakis Athletic Center. The DAC was rocking from the moment the fans were let in.

For major conference teams picked to finish near the bottom of their conference, making the NIT actually means something now. It is at least a step in the right direction as it is something that now has to be earned. The NIT attempts to select the 32 most deserving teams after the NCAA sets its field of 65. Like the NCAA handing out bids to conference tournament winners weakening the field of 64, the NIT also gives automatic bids to any conference regular season winner that doesn’t win their conference tournament. In most years, this has reduced the number of at-large bids by 5-8 spots making it even more difficult to make the NIT for major conference teams.

So far this year the following teams won their conference regular season title, but didn’t win their conference championship:

32. Stony Brook
31. Coastal Carolina
30. Jacksonville

By not winning their conference tournaments, another team from their respective conferences took a spot in the NCAA that wouldn’t have made the post-season otherwise. So with these conferences going from 1 post-season team(an NCAA bid to the tourney winner), they now take up two post season spots with the regular season winner being guaranteed a spot in the NIT. So right now, only 29 bids for the NIT remain.

This site has NC State as the 29th team in the tournament which would make us the last team in the field as things stand right now. I have been tracking this website for a few years, so I have verified they do have a good handle on this process. As far as what other teams NC State fans should be pulling for this week, the site breaks it down nicely for us:

Over in the NIT, Stony Brook hogs another automatic bid, but it’s been mostly good news for NIT bubble hopefuls as the majority of 1 seeds are holding serve in one-bid leagues so far. Pending potential bid-stealers for you to root for: Weber St. (BSky), UCSB (BW), Kent St. (MAC), Morgan St. (MEAC), Quinnipiac (NEC), Lehigh (PAT), Sam Houston St. (Slnd), Oakland (SUM), Troy (SB), Jackson st. (SWAC), Utah St. (WAC). With 11 such situations in play, I’d expect to see something like 4 more bids disappearing by Selection Sunday.

If you want to follow these teams to give yourself another reason to watch Championship Week, then here is the schedule for each of these teams:

-Weber St. (Big Sky) – Semifinals vs. Portland St., 3/9 9 pm; Finals 3/10
-UCSB (Big West) – Semifinals vs. ????, 3/12
-Morgan St. (MEAC) – Quarterfinals vs. ???, 3/10 or 3/11
-Kent St (MAC) – Quarterfinals, 3/11 7 pm
-Quinnipiac (NEC) – Finals vs. Robert Morris, 3/10 7pm (these teams tied for regular season title)
-Lehigh (PAT) – Finals vs. Lafayette, 3/12 4:45 pm
-Sam Houston St.(Sland) – Quarterfinals vs Nichols St., 3/10 7 pm
-Oakland (Summit) – Finals vs. IUPUI, 3/9 9 pm
-Troy (SB) – Finals vs. N. Texas, 3/9 7 pm (these teams tied for regular season title)
-Jackson St. (SWAC) – Quarterfinals vs. Grambling, 3/10
-Utah St (WAC) – Quarterfinals vs. Boise St, 3/11 3 pm

Bold denotes games played today.

Most likely 2-5 of these teams will lose in their conference tournaments, so there is no doubt that NC State must win its first round ACC tournament game to make the NIT. Additionally, we want to pull for favorites in most/all of the other major conference tournaments. We don’t want a UVA, UNC, or BC (or the teams from other conferences on the NIT bubble) going on runs this weekend.

Either way, a win against a Clemson team with a strong RPI should make NC State almost a lock for an NIT bid.

09-10 Basketball General

99 Responses to Breaking Down State’s NIT Chances

  1. bradleyb123 03/09/2010 at 1:01 PM #

    How is UNX a projected 6-seed in the NIT with quite possibly a 16-16 record? We finished tied for 9th in the conference. We have one more win, and I think we have more wins over ranked teams.

    I guess they played more ranked teams than we did. But they did LOSE to most of them, and in some cases, got blown out of the water.

    I know they beat us twice, but this still smacks of Hole bias.

  2. Thinkpack17 03/09/2010 at 1:05 PM #

    You play to win the games! Duh!

  3. Ed89 03/09/2010 at 1:10 PM #

    I say if you can score with the hot girl’s ugly friend, you go for it. You never know how “close” the hot girl is with her friend. It may lead to scoring with the hot girl (& the ugly friend) if you play your cards right.

  4. WolfBrew 03/09/2010 at 1:11 PM #

    I’ll take scoring with the “ugly friend” over a date like last year with Rosie Palm. I hate rooting for an NIT bid, but it beats a blank.

  5. packfan03 03/09/2010 at 1:15 PM #

    b123,

    I’m shocked, that you are shocked, by this unshocking bias towards UNX.

    I know you aren’t really surprised, but are merely pointing out the bias we not only face in all mediums of media – but on the court as well. We’ve also finished much stronger than they have, winning 3 of 4, including one ranked opponent.

    Clemson is a tough matchup for us (speed, press…Trevor Booker), but IF we pull out a win, I think we’ll have enough for the NIT. As I recall, Stitt was out for most of the game the first time we played Clemson (at least for the part when we went on that critical run in the second half) with an injury, and we still lost.

  6. kyjelly 03/09/2010 at 1:16 PM #

    At this site we are in green ,and green equals bubble! Well done and good luck to you both and your ugly girl friends as well .We did not finish tied for 9th we had the same record as unx and uva the tiebreaker is head to head, we were swept by both 9th place squads so we are seeded 11th. But you may say tied for 9th that will look better than most seasons Sid has had to put on his resume.

  7. choppack1 03/09/2010 at 1:18 PM #

    I agree w/ DU – that any post-season tourney bid we receive should be accepted.

    It’s sad. We’ve been reduced to analyzing our shot at the NIT…where we are on the bubble. And make no mistake, being invited to the NIT for a school in the major conference is not even the equivalent of going bowling in college football.

    I’ll watch our games and hope we win the thing. Because if there’s something more dubious than being invited to the NIT, it’s losing in the first round or so.

    And yes, I’d love a match-up vs. Arizona State.

  8. blackdom 03/09/2010 at 1:26 PM #

    You act as if we have turned down bids?

  9. Pack Mentality 03/09/2010 at 1:33 PM #

    And doing the ugly friend is better than acting like someone is below your standards so therefore you’d rather not get laid.

  10. BSIE80 03/09/2010 at 1:36 PM #

    The NIT is significantly better than the college bowl system we have today. At least if you win you get to keep playing and have a chance of winning a trophy.
    The bowl system is pretty worthless, unless you are playing in the championship game….

    Also, it is about watching our team play- whether it is NCAA, NIT, CBI… If u don’t care to watch, then u aren’t really a fan at all!!!

  11. Thinkpack17 03/09/2010 at 1:36 PM #

    It is also common knowledge that the ugly friend will do way more stuff.

  12. tvp1 03/09/2010 at 1:38 PM #

    I don’t really understand these comments. Everyone knows that the program is not where it needs to be. It’s not like this is a new phenomenon. For the majority of the past two decades we’ve been reduced to hoping for an NIT bid.

    The NIT is a better tournament than it used to be. It would be a few more games against quality competition with at least something on the line. Of course we should go. If you don’t care, don’t watch.

  13. tvp1 03/09/2010 at 1:41 PM #

    “And make no mistake, being invited to the NIT for a school in the major conference is not even the equivalent of going bowling in college football.”

    How do you figure? 10 ACC teams went bowling in 2008.

    Hell, I’d argue that the NIT is tougher to make than a bowl game for a major conference team. Every BCS team that goes 6-6 goes bowling automatically now. With the NIT you at least have to impress a selection committee.

  14. Daily Update 03/09/2010 at 1:47 PM #

    tvp1: Good point. The bowl system is like the old NIT where $$$ generated through ticket sales was the deciding factor for participation for .500+ teams. As I pointed out, you at least have to earn your way into the NIT these days based.

  15. ncsu05mit10 03/09/2010 at 1:57 PM #

    Clearly making the NCAA’s every year should be the expectation of a major conference program. This should be our goal, which has in fact been stated by Lowe and Fowler. So if they don’t live up to it, then they should accept those consequences.

    However, if you look at the NCAA tourney, around 20 teams each year, give or take, get automatic bids from their tiny little conferences who wouldn’t normally make the tournament as an at-large bid. So it’s not like NCSU or any other major conference school was bested by 64 teams, it’s more like 40 teams when the tournament starts.

    And I’ve always been of the opinion that teams that make the NIT Final 4 should have made it into the NCAA’s while the champion could have won a few games in the NCAA’s, or maybe more. Hell, look at the ’83 team. Look at George Mason several years ago.

    I’m not trying to make the argument that we should take pride in the NIT, or be happy at one day squeaking into the NCAA’s, but I don’t think playing in the NIT’s is such a disgrace (unless you’re doing it year in year out).

    The competition is actually pretty good and at least it gets the team used to playing in a post season tourney. It’s got to make them hungrier for the NCAA’s.

    Really I think this whole discussion is a moot point, b/c if we’re not in the NCAA’s next year, Lowe will be job searching.

  16. bradleyb123 03/09/2010 at 2:08 PM #

    I know you aren’t really surprised, but are merely pointing out the bias we not only face in all mediums of media – but on the court as well.

    Actually, I am a little surprised that they would be listed as a 6-seed, when they’re most likely going to be 16-16. Also, they’ve only won 4 of their last 15 games, so it’s not like they’ve been on a tear. The “what have you done for me lately” factor for UNX is “NOTHING MUCH, REALLY!”

    At least the Wolfpack has won three of their last four games.

    It appears that UNX is already in the NIT, barring some kind of miracle, and NC State has more work to do. That doesn’t seem right. I can understand media bias, but not tournament selection bias.

  17. RickJ 03/09/2010 at 2:18 PM #

    Daily Update – thanks for this info on the NIT. However I have to disagree with this post:

    “ASU needs to reach the Pac 10 final at least. They might even need more help than that to make the NCAAs.”

    I think as of today, ASU is in the NCAA. Look at it this way, they have almost exactly the same resume as Virginia Tech.

  18. Daily Update 03/09/2010 at 2:20 PM #

    Rickj: The situation with all of the bubble teams is very fluid. ASU has a chance to make the NCAAs, but they need to win at least several games and hope other bubble teams don’t do the same to be certain they will make the NCAAs. Same with VT.

    See this great entry from Vawolf82.

    http://www.statefansnation.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/09/pre-acct-bubble-watch-2/

  19. Rochester 03/09/2010 at 2:24 PM #

    Given where we are, we would be insane to turn down the NIT if offered. I made my case last week that I don’t believe in any carry-over effect, so I won’t go through that again, but it’s still better than finishing the year with no tournament at all. And might as well give the guys on a roster a couple more games to pad their career stats. Tracy’s at 878 points. With a strong season next year he might have a shot at 1,500. A few more games can’t hurt.

    The CBI, on the other hand, is a complete joke. If you have to pay your way into it, forget that one. Have a little pride. I predict that tournament won’t even be around in five years.

  20. waxhaw 03/09/2010 at 2:28 PM #

    An NIT bid would be seen as progress.
    Winning a few games is momentum.

    If offered, accept it and play to win. That is the biggest no brainer in the history of earth (to quote a cheesy mortgage ad on the radio).

  21. Wulfpack 03/09/2010 at 2:33 PM #

    Last year, the only “major” programs the CBI took were Stanford, Oregon State and St. John’s. The year before that, they were Washington, Cincy, and UVA. So the CBI seems to favor mid-majors.

    I think we all know GT and UNC are in the NIT. I’m real interested to see how they rank us vs. BC and UVA.

    Shouldn’t the fact that Les is on the committee be a good sign?

  22. Broccoman 03/09/2010 at 2:39 PM #

    I think it’s going to take 2 wins to make the NIT.

    NIT to me, with the expectations this year, would be exceeding what was expected in the beginning. To be NIT= a step in the right direction, but next year is NCAA or bust.

    Right now I’d call the season slightly below what I expected coming in.

    Best case scenario is of course to win four and get in.

  23. Daily Update 03/09/2010 at 2:44 PM #

    OK, I already have my reasoning for accepting the CBI or CollegeInsiders tournaments ready to blog if we don’t make the NIT. It will also be a fresh take on why we should play that I doubt many people would ever consider. Based on that reasoning and a basic assumption, it would be a no brainer to participate in any tournament that will have us.

  24. packfan03 03/09/2010 at 2:47 PM #

    Daily Update,

    This may be in your “ready to go” blog, but I have one question that perhaps you can answer prior to it’s release (which hopefully won’t be necessary!).

    What is the cost of accepting a bid to the CBI? With the understanding that the further we go, the more we pay, is there an estimate you – or anyone else – can give?

  25. choppack1 03/09/2010 at 2:55 PM #

    Arizona State is 93.3% likely to get a bid per the dance card. We’re not even on it…(and lots of teams are.)

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