Breaking Down State’s NIT Chances

09-10 Basketball General99

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N. Texas beat Troy last night sending Troy to the NIT by winning the regular season. That leaves 28 NIT bids left. More later….
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By winning 3 of our final 4 regular season games, Sidney Lowe put NC State back on the NIT bubble after a horrific middle stretch of conference play. When the NCAA purchased the NIT in 2005, the selection process was changed to mirror the process used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee. Before 2005, almost every major conference team with a .500+ record made the NIT so these programs could host home games to generate revenue with ticket sales. Many of us probably remember hosting NIT games in Reynolds during the early years of the Sendek era. To show you how different today’s NIT is compared to pre-2005, in Sidney Lowe’s first season we played Drexel in the 1st round on the road in a hostile environment:

While the students were certainly upset over being left out of the NCAAs, it sure didn’t douse their enthusiasm inside the cozy and steamy 2,700-seat Daskalakis Athletic Center. The DAC was rocking from the moment the fans were let in.

For major conference teams picked to finish near the bottom of their conference, making the NIT actually means something now. It is at least a step in the right direction as it is something that now has to be earned. The NIT attempts to select the 32 most deserving teams after the NCAA sets its field of 65. Like the NCAA handing out bids to conference tournament winners weakening the field of 64, the NIT also gives automatic bids to any conference regular season winner that doesn’t win their conference tournament. In most years, this has reduced the number of at-large bids by 5-8 spots making it even more difficult to make the NIT for major conference teams.

So far this year the following teams won their conference regular season title, but didn’t win their conference championship:

32. Stony Brook
31. Coastal Carolina
30. Jacksonville

By not winning their conference tournaments, another team from their respective conferences took a spot in the NCAA that wouldn’t have made the post-season otherwise. So with these conferences going from 1 post-season team(an NCAA bid to the tourney winner), they now take up two post season spots with the regular season winner being guaranteed a spot in the NIT. So right now, only 29 bids for the NIT remain.

This site has NC State as the 29th team in the tournament which would make us the last team in the field as things stand right now. I have been tracking this website for a few years, so I have verified they do have a good handle on this process. As far as what other teams NC State fans should be pulling for this week, the site breaks it down nicely for us:

Over in the NIT, Stony Brook hogs another automatic bid, but it’s been mostly good news for NIT bubble hopefuls as the majority of 1 seeds are holding serve in one-bid leagues so far. Pending potential bid-stealers for you to root for: Weber St. (BSky), UCSB (BW), Kent St. (MAC), Morgan St. (MEAC), Quinnipiac (NEC), Lehigh (PAT), Sam Houston St. (Slnd), Oakland (SUM), Troy (SB), Jackson st. (SWAC), Utah St. (WAC). With 11 such situations in play, I’d expect to see something like 4 more bids disappearing by Selection Sunday.

If you want to follow these teams to give yourself another reason to watch Championship Week, then here is the schedule for each of these teams:

-Weber St. (Big Sky) – Semifinals vs. Portland St., 3/9 9 pm; Finals 3/10
-UCSB (Big West) – Semifinals vs. ????, 3/12
-Morgan St. (MEAC) – Quarterfinals vs. ???, 3/10 or 3/11
-Kent St (MAC) – Quarterfinals, 3/11 7 pm
-Quinnipiac (NEC) – Finals vs. Robert Morris, 3/10 7pm (these teams tied for regular season title)
-Lehigh (PAT) – Finals vs. Lafayette, 3/12 4:45 pm
-Sam Houston St.(Sland) – Quarterfinals vs Nichols St., 3/10 7 pm
-Oakland (Summit) – Finals vs. IUPUI, 3/9 9 pm
-Troy (SB) – Finals vs. N. Texas, 3/9 7 pm (these teams tied for regular season title)
-Jackson St. (SWAC) – Quarterfinals vs. Grambling, 3/10
-Utah St (WAC) – Quarterfinals vs. Boise St, 3/11 3 pm

Bold denotes games played today.

Most likely 2-5 of these teams will lose in their conference tournaments, so there is no doubt that NC State must win its first round ACC tournament game to make the NIT. Additionally, we want to pull for favorites in most/all of the other major conference tournaments. We don’t want a UVA, UNC, or BC (or the teams from other conferences on the NIT bubble) going on runs this weekend.

Either way, a win against a Clemson team with a strong RPI should make NC State almost a lock for an NIT bid.

09-10 Basketball General

99 Responses to Breaking Down State’s NIT Chances

  1. Alpha Wolf 03/09/2010 at 11:13 AM #

    Let’s assume that the Pack does make the NIT.

    If that is the case, I would hope that we focus on playing underclassmen as much as possible in order to maximize their experience for next year. Essentially, I look at the NIT *as* next year.

  2. Daily Update 03/09/2010 at 11:16 AM #

    I hope we would focus on winning. We need wins more than anything. With only Degand(limited minutes) and Horner not returning, then the underclassmen should get plenty of experience.

    Also, if we have an opportunity to play in either of the other two tournaments, then we need to pay whatever it takes to get in those fields. If there is a game to be played, then we need to play it and play to win. Any stretch of wins in any tournament can do nothing but help the program.

  3. LRM 03/09/2010 at 11:28 AM #

    Daily,
    I disagree with your rationale. If this season is a disaster because of personnel (ie, PG), which is what Sid’s supporters contend, then how do we benefit by extending this season when the personnel (the guards) will be different next year?

    I further contend that padding our win total against weak competition in a pay-for-play tournament would give us a false sense of “success,” much like in March 2007.

    Obviously, we should play in the NIT if we receive a bid, but for no reason should we pay to extend this disaster of a season.

  4. Alpha Wolf 03/09/2010 at 11:30 AM #

    If State were to win the NIT, are we going to celebrate being #66?

    That’s like saying you scored with the hot girl’s ugly friend.

    I would rather concentrate on guys like C.J. Williams and the future of the program.

  5. Daily Update 03/09/2010 at 11:31 AM #

    LRM: We have 13 new scholarship players next year? Interesting. The two primary PGs on this year’s team will be on next year’s team too. Guys like Painter, CJ WIllliams and Howell have really stepped up recently. If you can get them more games, then you get them more games. The off-season is limited in terms of workouts and games, so if you can play as a team with the coaches coaching, then you don’t turn down opportunities to extend the season. If we pretended that there were no more tournaments and we could get 1-5 scrimmages to continue to get better this March, then you most certainly would accept the opportunity to scrimmage other similar teams and continue practice.

    There is no reason not to extend the season. Experience is experience. Play to win. The fans don’t have to watch it.

    Alphawolf: The program is where the program is. If we were to win the NIT, then yes that would represent a successful season based on expectations for this team.

  6. LRM 03/09/2010 at 11:33 AM #

    Daily,
    Ok, I’ll yield to your NIT argument, but you won’t convince me we should pay to play against competition that would likely mirror that of the Glenn Wilkes Classic.

  7. LRM 03/09/2010 at 11:35 AM #

    “LRM: We have 13 new scholarship players next year? Interesting.”

    You know that’s not what I was arguing.

    If you’re playing in these tournaments, you’re going to try and win them, right? So it’s not like Sid will start changing substitution patterns or rotations just to get guys game experience for next year. In which case, I don’t see the argument for extending the season being a positive approach to next season.

  8. WTNY 03/09/2010 at 11:42 AM #

    I consider any season where State doesn’t make the Big Dance a failure. I understand conceptually how it is better than nothing and especially in Sendek’s first year it was a reasonable goal. However, in the big picture, not making the NCAA tourney is a failure.

    I do see two reasons to play:
    * It does provide more practice time and time playing together (even though we have some new pieces next year).
    * IT SETS THE BAR HIGHER FOR NEXT YEAR. In this case, making the NIT next year won’t be an improvement — only making the NCAA tourney will be.

  9. LRM 03/09/2010 at 11:42 AM #

    “The two primary PGs on this year’s team will be on next year’s team too. Guys like Painter, CJ WIllliams and Howell have really stepped up recently. If you can get them more games, then you get them more games. The off-season is limited in terms of workouts and games, so if you can play as a team with the coaches coaching, then you don’t turn down opportunities to extend the season.”

    Ok, fair enough argument.

    I’m just not convinced after 30+ games and a grueling conference schedule that a few extra games against competition far weaker than we’ve been playing twice per week for the past two months will benefit us much. I think it’s far more likely Tracy tears an ACL.

  10. LRM 03/09/2010 at 11:46 AM #

    Daily –
    Nice entry by the way. For a lot of teams the NIT isn’t a dissapointment, and people like me pay it very little attention, so you simplified it and summarized it nicely.

  11. Daily Update 03/09/2010 at 11:48 AM #

    WTNY: No NC State fan thinks NIT bids in the long run mark a successful season. However, the program has essentially been a train wreck, so relative to where we sat going into the year an NIT bid would represent a successful regular season for this particular team. I like your comment about it setting the bar higher as well.

    LRM: Good point on the ACL tear. However, you still have to play the games.

    I didn’t even mention the potential of impacting recruiting this Spring.

  12. BassPacker 03/09/2010 at 11:49 AM #

    The site has ASU projected as a NIT #1 seed. Unless ASU wins the Pac10, its NIT bound? How can the COY Pac10 team not be expected to get an automatic bid to NCAA. The NIT committee is probably hoping ASU fails in its tournament and NCSU make some noise in ACC. Wanna bet what two teams would met as 1 vs 8 seeds in Tempe? ASU-NCSU matchup would be likely for ticket sales and NIT TV ratings.

  13. whope90 03/09/2010 at 11:50 AM #

    Who cares about the NIT? That should be for teams that either were screwed by the NCAA process or programs that have never been to any post season play in their history! I agree with many of you, what sense would it be to play in this thing and have say T Smith hurt? If UNC has any sense they would decline to play in this LOSERS tournament.
    I say good luck in GBO with the ACC T and hope for a ACC Title win and birth in NCAA,other than that, Thanks CLEMSON for ending our season,which is what will happen and that should close the NIT dreams for us!!
    Dreaming for the NIT, are you serious!!NIT playoffs,NIT PLAYOFFS!!!
    What is next year dream CBI????loll

  14. Daily Update 03/09/2010 at 11:51 AM #

    LRM: Honestly, I find myself doing this type of stuff all of the time in relation to NC State sports. I have to find something of interest just so I have some reason to follow “March Madness”. I might actually watch a few games this week now when I rarely ever watch college basketball anymore unless NC State is playing.

  15. LRM 03/09/2010 at 11:52 AM #

    The Pac-10 is a one-bid league this year most likely.

    If ASU is playing for the championship though and teams like GT lose in the first round, that could change.

  16. whope90 03/09/2010 at 11:54 AM #

    Besides, ASU is picked to go back to the NCAA”S for a second straight year?? Humm, fours years in ASU, herb has gone to one NIT and two ncaa’s with a program that is only known as a baseball school, while nc state with el sid has one nit bid,with herb’s players and coaches press conferences campaigning for NIT slots??
    Wake up LEE!! Hire us a new coach or leave!! We expect yearly NCAA bids if we keep buying the tickets and mechandise etc!!!

  17. Daily Update 03/09/2010 at 11:54 AM #

    Basspacker: I have thought about the potential ASU matchup as well.

    ASU needs to reach the Pac 10 final at least. They might even need more help than that to make the NCAAs.

    Otherwise, Herb just got a nice feather in his cap in case ASU fans start to become restless if they miss the tournament this year and next year. COY awards only give coaches ammunition to stick around longer and do absolutely nothing for the program itself.

  18. LRM 03/09/2010 at 11:54 AM #

    Daily: It’s tough being a State fan in March, no doubt!

  19. Daily Update 03/09/2010 at 11:56 AM #

    Let’s limit the discussion to merits of playing in these tournaments and discussion over the results of games the next few days. There is no reason to discuss firing or hiring a coach this season. I just want to enjoy some March Madness while I can because it could end very abruptly with a loss to Clemson.

  20. wufpup76 03/09/2010 at 12:01 PM #

    Thanks for the entry.

    I tend to fall on Daily’s side of the argument (play as much as you can), but I’m not sold that we should play in the CBI.

    How much would we really benefit from playing in it? Would we have to pay to play? Would the players buy into playing in a tournament that a lot of folks consider a joke?

    UTEP defeated Oregon St. in the finals of the CBI last year. I think it was good for those programs. The fans showed up. Not sure it would necessarily be a good thing for our program. I would need to be sold on it.

    Edit: I’m not saying our program is in better shape than UTEP’s or Oregon State’s – but it was clear those programs were ready for any type of postseason and really wanted to take advantage of the opportunity given to them. I fear we would not react the same way, which is telling.

  21. Dr. BadgerPack 03/09/2010 at 12:03 PM #

    I’m sure many, if not nearly all of the fans don’t give a hoot about the NIT. That’s fine.

    However, I’d look at it from another perspective, as I often find myself doing. How about Dennis Horner’s perspective? He would probably like to play as many more games with his teammates as possible; this is it. This group seems to really get along and support one another, and I am certain they wouldn’t say “screw it, it’s the NIIT”.

    So, for the seniors/departing players, I hope they get as many more games as possible.

    As for the players getting hurt argument… It’s not like they go into a shell and play no competitive basketball once the season is over. Heck, some of the local pickup games can be just as if not even more brutal as they are less controlled/organized. So, unless we bubble wrap the players at seasons end, the injury risk is roughly neutral either way. Since they will play basketball anyway, it might as well be in a controlled environment, with medical personnel at hand.

  22. Pack Mentality 03/09/2010 at 12:15 PM #

    The only 2 tournaments that matter are the ACC and the NCAA (IMO). That being said, I think it would be disgraceful to try to practice for next year as opposed to trying to win the game at hand regardless of the tournament and situation.

  23. packfan03 03/09/2010 at 12:18 PM #

    Good point regarding additional playing time, Dr. BadgerPack.

    If an invitation is offered to us to play in the NIT, I say take it. I think our players, while disappointed they weren’t invited to the NCAA tournament, will be excited to play on TV and for something.

    I view the NIT no differently than the Papa Johns bowl game from two years back. Is it presitigious? No. But, it’s an opportunity for more practice time, game time, and for our guys to get a taste of playing in an end of season tournament.

    Plus, I’d like to watch a few more games :-)!

  24. mikeD 03/09/2010 at 12:21 PM #

    I would much rather us GET IN the NIT than not even get in at all. Disagree all you want about whether or not to play in it. There’s valid goods and bads about it. But to not even get in…again…ouch.

  25. ldr of the pk 75 03/09/2010 at 12:56 PM #

    Alpha- if you score with the hot girls “ugly friend”, you basically got the same personal gratification as you would have from something hotter.The “ugly friend” might even consider herself a “winner”. Our “ugly friend” of a basketball team provided no gratification, they were yet again, losers.

    All that aside, if I have to look at the big picture, I say the NIT experience might help. I hate we are reconciled to a loser tourney made up of losers, but perhaps it can be built on.

    But please, nothing lower than the NIT. Call it a bad year first.

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