NCSU basketball by the numbers

09-10 Basketball107

I compiled statistics from several years to get an idea how this years team is doing compared to previous teams. I have also included numbers from the middle of the current year so we can see how ACC play changes the numbers. For fun, I added Sendek’s last year just to see how they compare.

I wanted to know if we are seeing any improvement from the basketball team. I am not going to give a lot of commentary as I hope there will be some discussion on these numbers and what they mean.

rankings

Here are averages for the categories.

comparison

Lastly here is the record comparison

record

About Rick

1992 and 2002 graduate from NCSU. Born and raised an NCSU fan. I remember the good ol' days and they weren't in the last 20 years.

09-10 Basketball

107 Responses to NCSU basketball by the numbers

  1. packfan03 02/24/2010 at 10:02 AM #

    The #s tell a truth that won’t shock anyone – we’ve gone from a team that was solid on offense and pretty good on defense to something else.

    More than anything else, we’ve gone from a team playing against New Orleans, Austin Peay, Auburn, etc., to playing our ACC schedule.

    I would argue that our execution hasn’t suffered as much as our success rate has suffered. I don’t watch our team thinking players are doing things incorrectly, just that we are missing A LOT of shots. Considering our talent, our discipline has been excellent. Our TO margin supports this.

    “putting the ball in the hoop” is most certainly contributory to our rebounding margin – as this margin is defined by the difference in our team’s rebounds and our opposition’s. Each miss provides our opposition an opportunity for a rebound. Defensive rebounds make up the majority of the team rebounding statistic.

  2. tuckerdorm1983 02/24/2010 at 10:03 AM #

    I ain’t lived on the campus in a long time. Yall got some work to do over there with our fans

  3. Wolfy__79 02/24/2010 at 10:04 AM #

    duke will stay atop the ACC
    i’m sure unx will get right
    wake does look like they are taking a big hit
    nc state is upgrading at guard, this should improve

    i had us pegged for 8th or better preseason. of course, i’ve never seen guards not significantly improve over 2-3 seasons. that pretty much killed my prediction. last year mays showed me spurts of decent play, i had high hopes he could move to 1 and be the man. excluding our frontcourt, i’d say we probably have the worst backcourt in the ACC. atleast none come to mind. improved guard play should make this team and these numbers, but how much better is the mystery.

    unfortunately it is true that when we don’t have any 3pt success, we are one dimensional on offense. too bad we’ve got an “inside out” offense with no in between. that’s what would help, IMO, consistent mid ranged shots with some slashing to the basket. oh well, WTNY.

  4. packfan03 02/24/2010 at 10:06 AM #

    We have more talent than a 12th place team should have, I’ll tell you that much.

    Sadly, we really don’t. Fortunately, this argument will have merit next year.

    To my knowledge, we are the only team in the ACC that has only one 4*/5* player in the starting lineup. If this isn’t the case (I’m referencing my memory more than anything else), I feel very confident that we fall in the 10-11 range.

  5. packfan03 02/24/2010 at 10:09 AM #

    I ain’t lived on the campus in a long time. Yall got some work to do over there with our fans
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KM5PIC0n8yU&feature=fvw

    In fairness, you could go to any university and find a handful of students displaying ineptitude like this. Unfortunately, we’re broadcasting ours.

  6. choppack1 02/24/2010 at 10:32 AM #

    “More than anything else, we’ve gone from a team playing against New Orleans, Austin Peay, Auburn, etc., to playing our ACC schedule.

    I would argue that our execution hasn’t suffered as much as our success rate has suffered. ”

    I’m talking about the #s from 2006, not mid season.

  7. kyjelly 02/24/2010 at 10:36 AM #

    To set this record straight we have not turned any cbi or cia or whatever tourney down ,we were never in the mix. Also in regards to teams profiles next year FSU will also addd 2 very talented bigs from juco ranks.

  8. Rick 02/24/2010 at 10:37 AM #

    “i’ve never seen guards not significantly improve over 2-3 seasons”

    Good point

    In order to believe next year will be significantly better you have to make some assumptions
    1) Harrow and Brown will not struggle with the transition to ACC talent. IMO Harrow will have the biggest jump
    2) That other teams will not get better. There are 5 top twenty recruiting classes in the ACC next year. We are third. So how much improvement will we see from adding the 3rd rated class to the last place team?
    3) That coaching is where is should be. I just do not see it. There is no identity for the program.
    4) That our offensive problems stem exclusively from a lack of guards.
    5) That our defensive problems stem exclusively from a lack of guards.

    I think the new kids will be great but there is a lot of weight being placed on them to correct systemic problems.

  9. sautz 02/24/2010 at 10:42 AM #

    Not only were people talking about improvement before the season (“We’ll be so much better without the HWSNBN leftovers!”) but you can even see it in the mid-season review comments: http://www.statefansnation.com/index.php/archives/2010/01/07/mid-season-acc-review/

    I believe Fowlup and Sidney were saying before the season the only measure of success they were looking for this year was “improvement”. Another fail.

  10. Daily Update 02/24/2010 at 10:46 AM #

    ^Rick: So you think we won’t improve next year?

    Our chances of making the NCAAs next year are probably similar to Sendek’s in year 6. We were picked 8th out of 9 teams that year in the pre-season. I don’t think we will make it. We are probably looking at 6 wins + or – 1.

    My goal is to give the program a shot at making the NCAAs in 2012 with or without Sidney Lowe, but definitely with Brown, Harrow and Cothron. Without those guards, we are looking at 2013 or 2014 before we would have a shot. Even those years would be in total doubt because you would only have Mays, Williams, Howell, Wood, Painter, Davis, and Vandenberg guaranteed to be on the roster(assuming nobody leaves) for 2013. Whatever happens, I don’t see any hope before 2013 or 2014 for the program without Harrow and Brown.

  11. Wolfy__79 02/24/2010 at 10:48 AM #

    i’m often on here trying to reason with myself why we put up with such pitiful basketball.. i can’t win myself over, much less any other fans. i do think sid can do a better job with actual talent at guard. some of the defensive woes are a result of crap guard defense. e.g. cj getting blown by all the time, young wood and cheap fowls… javi mentally breaking down. i do think the incoming pg can do a little better, despite only being a freshman. but we’ll also see his immaturity. which i’m okay with, hell javi still plays like a freshman 50% of the time.

    that said, i do have higher expectations, but also feel we don’t have a choice in the matter thus the self motivation.

  12. LRM 02/24/2010 at 10:50 AM #

    Isn’t the CBI a pay-for-play event that is only televised on HDNet?

    If Brown & Harrow are indeed going to fix all of our problems next year like so many folks suggest, then how on earth is there any benefit to playing in the CBI (or NIT for that matter) this year without them, especially considering the level of competition would be far below what we’re already playing against in-conference?

    Maybe I’m wrong here, but I just can’t see the rationale of how extending our season does us any good.

  13. Wolfy__79 02/24/2010 at 10:51 AM #

    i for one will not be satisfied with anything less than a ncaa tourney appearance/good run. nothing less. c’mon man… hell the fact that we are even debating about cbi and nit and jerk off U tourney central kills me.. damn can’t he do better than this?

  14. Wolfy__79 02/24/2010 at 10:54 AM #

    thank you lrm, my sentiments exactly. all i’m hoping for is some decent play from here on out. the NIT would be nice at this point. but i hate saying that. but i agree, no benefit with javi having any more minutes as “team leader.” … unless of course he “leads” us to an ACC tourney championship. HA

  15. LRM 02/24/2010 at 10:57 AM #

    Rick, nice points.

    I haven’t seen many freshman point guards make an immediate impact in the ACC, so no matter how good they are now, I expect them to struggle mightily. So the argument is already being set up for next year: Just WTNY when we have 5-star forwards.

  16. Wolfy__79 02/24/2010 at 10:58 AM #

    regardless of our depth of our college bball iq, i’d say it doesn’t take a genius to figure out we suck. hell we’ve had the close losses, the upsets… in years to come we’ll look back and say undoubtably that WE SUCK. everyone wants whatever coach to be a success. but that doesn’t change the fact that we suck. i’m all for a good class saving ass at this point. we don’t have a say in the matter…

  17. Wolfy__79 02/24/2010 at 10:59 AM #

    one exception being john wall, but is harrow a wall or better.

  18. packfan03 02/24/2010 at 11:15 AM #

    Wolfy__79,

    Obviously, our team has struggled with Sid at the helm. The question still remains, who’s a better fit? We knew when he came in that it would be a process for him to learn the college game and the recruiting scene. I think he’s finally got a firm handle on both.

    Those who thought we were going to be a mid-level, NCAA bubble team at the beginning of this year – were (are) irrational. I’m sure there were plenty of Sid-defenders on this board who felt this way, but it simply didn’t make sense. There is no argument based on rational thought with arriving at that conclusion.

    Hiring a new coach sets the program back. This is why it’s pivotal to keep Sid around to see if he can coach his own highly talented team. We have the resources, a good coach (This year, more than ever, I believe Sid is), and the recruiting to be successful in the ACC.

    The W-L improvements next year will convince you.

  19. Daily Update 02/24/2010 at 11:23 AM #

    LRM: What argument are you talking about? What argument is being setup? The argument what is the best course of action to improve NC State’s program considering all factors like recruiting, Chancellor turnover, AD turnover this Spring(seems likely), and likely candidates for our job considering all of these factors?

    I can’t figure out what you are arguing. If you are trying to argue that Sidney Lowe has been a miserable failure in his 4 years at NC State, then I think you will have a hard time finding a single person who would disagree with you. I don’t know a single NC State fan who thinks the last 4 years are acceptable. We suck this year and we are probably looking at an NIT as best case for next year with Sidney Lowe. I think everyone gets that. I don’t see anyone predicting we make the tournament next year.

    I think most everyone everyone feels that Sidney’s performance warrants him being fired.

    If we had a Chancellor already in place, Fowler already out, and a solid roster for a new coach and/or a name coach to take our job, then I don’t think there is any question that the masses of NC State fans would be clamoring for him to be replaced.

    Unfortunately, there are other factors in play right now at NC State, so the discussion/criticism of the WTNY people are off base in my opinion if you isolate the discussion/criticism to simply performance on the court.

    The only argument I am personally setting up is that NC State is in a stronger position to fix “systematic problems” next year. That of course is with the assumption that there isn’t a slam dunk hire out there that would take our job this year. I think that is a safe assumption considering the factors at Chancellor, AD and the state of the program. That also assumes that Sidney is doing what is expected of an ACC head coach in terms of program management, personal life, and NCAA rules.

  20. rtpack24 02/24/2010 at 11:31 AM #

    Keep in mind when you review these numbers, the ACC is the weakest it has been in 25 yrs. We do have talent and we had alot of talent last year.

  21. Rick 02/24/2010 at 11:38 AM #

    “one exception being john wall, but is harrow a wall or better.”

    Wall and other PGs that make a first year impact are physically able to. They are big and mature.
    Harrow is neither of those. He gets a lot of his points (in the two games I saw) by driving to the basket. He is going to struggle with that in the ACC if not get outright hurt.

    IMO if no NCAA next year then Lowe has to go.

  22. choppack1 02/24/2010 at 11:43 AM #

    Rick – obviously you haven’t taken into account the excellent S&C he’ll be exposed to when he arrives here in Raleigh.

  23. Daily Update 02/24/2010 at 11:51 AM #

    Harrow will do fine next year. He is bigger than Chris Paul and similar to both Justin Gainey and Kenny Anderson(168 lbs in HS after a quick search on Google) in terms of size and strength. Hell, Paul is listed at 175 lbs in the NBA.

    None of those guards were physically mature as freshman yet they all made impacts at different levels.

    I don’t really care one way or the other if Lowe is the coach in 2012(or next year if some of my assumptions aren’t actually true).

  24. JeremyH 02/24/2010 at 11:52 AM #

    I agree that a lot of those dunks in the highlight will need to end up as teardrop shots or assists. I still think he will be very effective in year one, because of ballhandling and speed. He is very natural with the ball in his hands. Brown also looks to be a very complete 2 guard, ready to contribute immediately; and with those two along with Smith, Howell, and Wood on the floor, it will we much more difficult to clamp down on our offense like it has been easy to this year. (Once the scouting report was written on us, this season was over.)

    Once Brown didn’t qualify we all knew we would struggle, and regardless of how “down” the ACC is, it is one of the more competitive conferences, one in which a glaring weakness will get exploited, like a cauliflower ear in an ultimate fighting match.

  25. JeremyH 02/24/2010 at 11:58 AM #

    By the way, how is “the ACC is down” reason that we should be good? We are part of the ACC, aren’t we? The ACC is down in talent, as are we.

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