100 Years of NC State Basketball by the Numbers: Sidney Lowe

As we celebrate 100 years of NC State basketball tradition, it can be interesting to take a look back at our heritage and make comparisons with the current program. Over the last century, there have been 18 head basketball coaches, 13 of which coached in either the Southern Conference or the ACC. Currently Sidney Lowe has the 2nd worst conference winning percentage of any coach in NC State basketball history and the worst since the inception of the Southern Conference in the early 1920s.

Harry Hartsell coached the first 2 seasons in which NC State was a member of the Southern Conference from 1922-1923 and had a conference record of 2-7 (.222).

After the Virginia Tech loss on Wednesday, Sidney Lowe fell below Les Robinson and has the 2nd worst conference winning percentage in school history with an ACC record of 17-41 (.293).

Below is a table of the conference winning percentages of the 13 NC State coaches that coached in the Southern Conference and/or the ACC.
sid table 1

The argument has been made time and time again that it takes 4 years for a coach to get his own players in the program and shouldn’t be judged until after that time (although coaches like Tony Bennett and Bob Huggins would certainly disagree with that theory). So let’s look at how the other former State coaches did under similar circumstances. Nine of the 13 coaches listed above were on the job for at least 4 seasons. If you look at conference winning percentage for their first 4 years, Sidney Lowe has the worst record of any coach in the history of NC State basketball.

sid table 2

An interesting observation, since Norm Sloan finished at .500 in ACC play in his first 4 years, the winning percentage for each following coach gets a little bit worse. At this rate, Lowe’s successor will only win a couple of ACC games in his first 4 years.
Sloan – .500
Valvano – .411
Robinson – .339
Sendek – .328
Lowe – .293

If you look at the situations recent coaches inherited, Robinson took over a program on probation that was coming off a scandal and had increased academic standards (but did inherit Monroe, Corchiani and Gugliotta). Lowe inherited a program that had been to 5 straight NCAA tournaments (and inherited Atsur, Costner, Fells and McCauley). Lowe also coached in an ACC watered down by expansion and, in my opinion, an ACC with a lower talent level across the league than in the early to mid 90s. Even Herb Sendek, who is certainly not the most popular coach here at SFN, took over a program from Robinson that hadn’t been to the postseason in 5 years (inheriting Benjamin, Harrison, Hyatt and Strong) and still had a better ACC record than Lowe in their first 4 years.

Sidney Lowe also has the worst conference winning percentage of any of the 12 ACC coaches in their first 4 years at the school. The only ACC coach to not win at least 7 conference games in their 4th year on the job was Gary Williams. We would have to win 5 out of our 6 remaining ACC games for Lowe to reach 7 wins in his 4th season.

sid table 3

And since I’m piling on Lowe’s coaching record, with a record of 79-228 (.257) for the Timberwolves and Grizzlies he also has the lowest winning percentage in the history of the NBA of anyone who coached at least 300 games. The only other 2 coaches that coached 300 games and have a winning percentage below .300 are Tim Floyd (post-Jordan/Phil Jackson Chicago Bulls) and Ron Rothstein (expansion Miami Heat).

While comparisons across eras are not always appropriate or accurate, Sidney Lowe has the 2nd worst career conference record of any coach that has coached at NC State (and the worst record since the inception of the Southern Conference in the early 1920s). Lowe also has the lowest conference winning percentage in his first 4 years of any coach in the ACC and in the 100 year history of NC State basketball. And right now, history is all we have to brag about.

About WV Wolf

Graduated from NCSU in 1996 with a degree in statistics. Born and inbred in West "By God" Virginia and now live in Raleigh where I spend my time watching the Wolfpack, the Mountaineers and the Carolina Hurricanes as well as making bar graphs for SFN. I'm @wvncsu on the Twitter machine.

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81 Responses to 100 Years of NC State Basketball by the Numbers: Sidney Lowe

  1. daughtry 02/12/2010 at 9:39 AM #

    @coachkoh – Tracy Smith. Javi Gonzalez. Farnold Degand. Those three have improved tremendously.

  2. Ed89 02/12/2010 at 9:44 AM #

    Another note: The only other Coach on that last table that has a National Championship is the one right next to Sid. Just saying, that IMO, it’s too early to say DEFINITIVELY that he has to go. Especially with our incoming class.

  3. Rochester 02/12/2010 at 9:44 AM #

    If we had played the VT game in Reynolds on Wednesday we would have only lost by 16 points.

  4. DRW 02/12/2010 at 9:49 AM #

    I really don’t see how one can look at Sid’s numbers and coaching so far and extrapolate that we will be any better next year. And please don’t tell me about the ‘good recruits’. Every year, we hear about how X recruit or Y recruit will take us to the promised land. Unless David Thompson is going to be freshman again next year, nothing is going to happen.

  5. Clarksa 02/12/2010 at 9:50 AM #

    @coachkoh – “Numbers” proving Javi has improved.

    07-08 PtsAvg: 3.8 AssistTtl: 65
    08-09 PtsAvg: 6.6 AssistTtl: 72
    09-10 PtsAvg: 9.9 AssistTtl: 95

    Now the “numbers” prove that Javi is has improved every year. What I see on the court is that he is an absolute head case and if his head isn’t in the game, then we won’t win.

  6. coachkoh 02/12/2010 at 9:53 AM #

    I wished we stayed on campus as well ,but to blame or make another EXCUSE for Sid ,hell his teams are consistently bad home or away. Not playing at Reynolds is not a valid excuse.

  7. Khan 02/12/2010 at 9:54 AM #

    Wow.

  8. coachkoh 02/12/2010 at 9:56 AM #

    Clarksa^ I was not talking numbers really ,what I meant was visible improvement.
    ^daughtry Tracey I believe was this good coming in ,he was not getting the time . Javi still can’t make others better which is what a point guard does. I will not even comment on Farnold but I will disagree about his improvement.

  9. graywolf 02/12/2010 at 10:00 AM #

    Does most of the blame go to our AD or Lowe. Remember the coaching search from He–. The disaster that is our athletic program and basketball program fall at the feet of our AD.

  10. whitefang 02/12/2010 at 10:07 AM #

    Excellent numbers work as usual.
    One thing that is hidden in these numbers I suspect is not only the 4 year record, but the 4 year trend. You can say Lowe was put in a difficult situation, but we are 4 years down that road. The thing that made Lowe’s situation difficult was of course LF ineptness, but that is because Lowe was given a job he was vastly unqualified for. The problem is 4 years later he does not seem anymore qualified.
    I truly believe we HAVE to move on after this year. I think our relevance in ACC basketball is nearly all gone now. Fans are already heading for the exits. WPC membership and fundraising has to be suffering. Our basketball program is circling the bowl. The time is now.

  11. Wulfpack 02/12/2010 at 10:09 AM #

    I do not think it is accurate to make the blanket statement that Sid is a good evaluator of talent. He brought in guys like Big Lew, Marquis Johnson, Mays, CJW, Javi, Degand, etc. He also recruited Hickson and Smith, his two best players by far. What I am saying is yea, he’s had a few good hits, but taken as a whole, he’s batting a very low average and there is a direct correlation with his win/loss percentage.

    We’ll see how next year’s guys pan out. I will guarantee you that at least one of them will be a disappointment. That’s the way this works, and it is not germane to NCSU.

  12. BJD95 02/12/2010 at 10:15 AM #

    And given the number of scholarships available, you can’t survive with a batting average like Lowe’s.

    Who’s more to blame? Doesn’t matter. Fowler and Lowe are BOTH horrible and BOTH wholly unsuited for continued employment in their current roles.

  13. packfan03 02/12/2010 at 10:20 AM #

    “We’ll see how next year’s guys pan out. I will guarantee you that at least one of them will be a disappointment. That’s the way this works, and it is not germane to NCSU.”

    I absolutely agree with your statement – there are hits and misses at every school. It’s a numbers game. Fortunately, next year we have two five star recruits and one four star recruit. As you bring in more quality, you can combat ‘misses’ with more effectively.

  14. Class of 2009 02/12/2010 at 10:23 AM #

    “I will guarantee you that at least one of them will be a disappointment. That’s the way this works, and it is not germane to NCSU.”

    However, if one of them does turn out to be a disappointment, regardless of this not being a trend germane to NCSU, people will claim it is still solely due to Lowe’s faults.

  15. sautz 02/12/2010 at 10:28 AM #

    Thanks for helping put this into perspective by the numbers. I would love for this site to do a recap like this of Fowler to send to the new Chancellor… Perhaps even a form letter we can all send to him.
    It would be so much better if Fowler was gone before Lowe.

  16. rtpack24 02/12/2010 at 10:43 AM #

    The numbers speak for themselves. Plus this year is a very weak year for the ACC. I believe that Harrow and Brown will be here next year and maybe Cothron, slim chance for Leslie. Harrow and Cothron are both going to have a uphill climb on the physical end. Harrow should not bother as much as Cothron. Luke is 6’8″ and is listed at 205 and I have seen him play and I believe 205 is a generous number. Hard to see him being effective at the 4 next year. Keep in mind not matter how talented these guys are they will be freshmen. Brown should provide immediate help while the others remain to be seen. I do not see a coaching change with Jed still at the school. There are very good coaches that would want the job and there are a few big name coaches that are interested. I guess we will WTNY!

  17. Wolfy__79 02/12/2010 at 10:59 AM #

    i hate to even mention this b/c it hasn’t been a change that has made a difference BUT… javi has gotten much better since arriving.. he still sucks in my book, but he sucks less. tracy has gotten better despite having players that have crappy attitudes (mainly costner).

    those that haven’t improved enough are: horner 1st & foremost, mays, degand, thomas, cj williams.

    looking at it from this angle, javi being the most improved but still not great by any measure.. how we have any wins suprises me. that is the biggest letdown for me to date. javi is still our leader among guards. this a mistake that sid made.. he didn’t get a guard in here. probably set his sights too high.. i don’t think he makes that same mistake. hopefully he has another pg in mind to spell harrow. javi will do, but he also needs a backup plan….

  18. Wolfy__79 02/12/2010 at 11:02 AM #

    i definetly know not to get too excited about incoming freshman. they will make mistakes.. what is different about this situation is that the aforementioned javi gonzalez is our best to date with sid as a junior and he still makes freshman mistakes. with that in mind, any pg that is not a mindless idiot will make a noticeable difference. i love javi for his effort, but he really is terrible.

  19. Wolfy__79 02/12/2010 at 11:05 AM #

    to add to that, we have plenty of talent at pf. we have had for years, our teams have been lacking at guard forever. true pg’s. howell, painter, smith, vandensneetzl, davis, wood, …. all these kids need is someone to get them the ball! well, wood needs to bulk up and be alittle tougher!! but it makes no difference to me whether or not cothron is a butterball.!!!!

  20. packfan03 02/12/2010 at 11:10 AM #

    “those that haven’t improved enough are: horner 1st & foremost, mays, degand, thomas, cj williams. ”

    In fairness to Thomas/Degand – both had pretty bad injuries. Thomas’s degenerative issue has guaranteed that he will not have a career in bball. Degand, well, for a PG that relied on speed to be effective, his injury was particularly damaging to his overall abilities.

    I can’t say that Horner hasn’t met his potential – I do not beleive his ceiling is higher than he is playing now (perhaps he could cut down on his mental mistakes). Mays is in the same boat – although he’s only a sophomore and hopefully will make more strides. I don’t think his ceiling is very high either though.

    The big disappointment is CJ…I really thought we were going to see the CJ from the end of last season. Unfortunately, he still won’t play aggressively.

  21. packfan03 02/12/2010 at 11:16 AM #

    http://www.accsports.com/blogs/jim-young/201002127162/ed-davis-out-with-wrist-injury.php

    Our Saturday matchup with the Heels just became more winnable (slightly). Ed Davis will be out for six weeks, which for the Heels, will likely be the season :-).

  22. choppack1 02/12/2010 at 11:25 AM #

    packfan03 – Do you think it’s coincidence that CJ and Julius are not just a little worse, but a lot worse than they were last year?

    Did you notice how McCauley and Costner had their best years their first year under Lowe? I don’t really think it’s a coincidence.

    Regarding the situation Lowe came into: It certainly wasn’t ideal. However, a good head coach would have likely been able to find a couple serviceable guards in short order and some more depth- that’s all that was really missing. (It’s much tougher to find skilled big men than it is solid guards.)

    It’s pretty sad that we’ve been saying the same thing for 4 years…”Boy, we’d be really good if we just had some guards.”

    I think of two sayings that apply here to those who would make excuses for our performance the last 4 years:
    It’s the singer, not the song.
    A good craftsman never blames his tools.

    The reality is that Lowe has yet to acheive what has predecessor acheived in his last season….in YEAR 4. I have really mixed feelings on seeing what he can do w/ talent. I fear that all we’ll be doing is having this same argument again when we finish 7-9 and go to the 3rd round of the NIT (or if the idea is still alive, the 2nd round of a 96 team NCAA tournament.)

  23. rtpack24 02/12/2010 at 11:27 AM #

    Cothron reference being 205 was not meant that he is a butterball just the opposite he is of slight build.

  24. Clarksa 02/12/2010 at 11:28 AM #

    Horner’s “Numbers”

    06-07 PtsAvg: 4.6 ReboundTtl: 81 3pt%: .458
    07-08 PtsAvg: 3.2 ReboundTtl: 31 3pt%: .286
    08-09 PtsAvg: 6.4 ReboundTtl: 85 3pt%: .357
    09-10 PtsAvg: 12.1 ReboundTtl: 111 3pt%: .361

    Hmm…so he has improved in pts per game and rebounds except for a sophomore slump…but his 3pt% has dropped from his first year but has increased every year since then.
    Overall, I think you can say that he has improved and like packfan03 pointed out, he is at his ceiling. You also have to consider he is playing on a less than perfect knee this season.

  25. Clarksa 02/12/2010 at 11:34 AM #

    Mays “Numbers”

    08-09 PtsAvg: 4.7 AssistTtl: 42
    09-10 PtsAvg: 5.6 AssistTtl: 46

    Again, Mays has improved his “numbers,” but he seems lost at times and he isn’t really aggressive when handling the ball.

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