NC State vs UNC: A battle of unranked, middle of the road ACC teams

09-10 Basketball Big Four Rivals Sidney Lowe56
Maybe the Red Blazer will produce some more magic tonight against the Heels...

Maybe the Red Blazer will produce some more magic tonight against the Heels...

The more I’ve thought about this game, the more I’ve started to think it’s a bit underwhelming. If you look at it from an outsiders’ perspective, it’s not even really that exciting. UNC limps in at 12-7 overall and 1-3 in the ACC, reeling from three straight losses in the last 10 days. NC State comes in 13-7 and 2-4 in conference play and is coming off a blowout loss to Maryland Saturday. Can you say not interesting?

But then I stop myself and remember, this is NC STATE vs NORTH CAROLINA! Records, rankings and conference standings don’t matter. Too bad they don’t, because the fact that UNC is out of the Top 25 and currently No. 11 in the ACC is a great talking point. Anyway, moving on.

Tonight’s battle between the Heels and Wolfpack is crucial on many levels, and not simply because it’s a rivalry game (check out tobaccordshow’s post on the importance of the rivalry). Carolina needs a victory in the worst way and has to be viewing the game as a must-win. NC State could pull closer to .500 in league play with a win and pick up its second victory over a Big Four rival in the last six days.

On that note, this Carolina team is extremely beatable. For the first time in a long time the Heels look vulnerable. Adam Gold and Joe Ovies talk some about the mindset of Carolina fans in this video on WRAL.

An important factor for tonight’s game will be the health of UNC big man Ed Davis. Roy Williams said Monday that Davis was “very questionable” to play. If he can’t go or is ineffective, NC State’s potential for winning the game goes way up. It’s tough to know if this is a little bit of gamesmanship by Williams, but regardless, Davis’ health is important.

Here’s a piece on the rivalry from Tony Haynes.

NC State men’s basketball coach Sidney Lowe said the Wolfpack had a very good practice on Monday morning, but given the fact that rival North Carolina is next up on the schedule, he didn’t expect anything less.

“If you can’t get ready to play in this game on either side, then there’s a problem,” Lowe said. “You’re at the wrong school and made a bad choice. It’s as simple as that.”

And desperation could and should be in plentiful supply when the Tar Heels (12-7, 1-3) and Wolfpack (13-7, 2-4) face off for the 216th time at the RBC Center on Tuesday night. Tip-off time is set for 9:05 p.m.

Following last Wednesday’s emotional and well-played 88-74 victory over nationally ranked Duke, NC State came back down to earth and tasted a little humble pie over the weekend, falling big at Maryland, 88-64. On Tuesday, the Wolfpack will be looking to knock off Duke and North Carolina in the same season for the first time since 2003.

Here’s your keys to the game:

Force turnovers/don’t commit them

As is the case with every game, turnovers will be key. NC State has been much better recently taking care of the ball and the proof is in the pudding. In its last three times out, against two ranked teams and ACC leader Maryland, NC State has turned it over 31 times combined. Against Duke, Javi Gonzalez, Julius Mays and Farnold Degand turned the ball over only three times and handed out 14 assists. If the Wolfpack can take care of the ball Tuesday night it should be in good shape. Conversely, if the Pack can force turnovers by pressuring the relatively inexperienced back court of the Heels it will be a huge plus.

Get Tracy Smith involved early and often

Teams have consistently doubled Tracy Smith throughout the year and he’s continued to produce points and rebounds. NC State should look to get him involved early and attempt to get Deon Thompson or whoever the Heels decide to put on him in foul trouble.

Force Carolina to shoot the ball from the outside

Aside from Will Graves, who is streaky at best, Carolina has no credible threat from outside. Carolina wants to pound the ball inside and get its big men involved. The Wolfpack will need to be sharp with its double teams and  rotations on the defensive end throughout the night. That being said, NC State can’t get in foul trouble.

Feed off the crowd

The crowd at the RBC Center Tuesday night could be a big factor in the momentum and eventual outcome of the game. Watching the Duke game last week it was obvious the team fed off the noise. If NC State can get a lead early and play the style of game it did against the Blue Devils last week, the crowd could be huge.

I’m excited for another opportunity to see the Wolfpack play. I don’t know what it is, but I like watching this team and watching them take on Carolina is certainly a great way to spend a Tuesday night in January.

For a little more discussion, there are a few related threads on our message boards that you can easily access by clicking here.

Check Twitter during the game. Assuming AT&T’s 3G service is fine, I’ll post some stuff.


09-10 Basketball Big Four Rivals Sidney Lowe

56 Responses to NC State vs UNC: A battle of unranked, middle of the road ACC teams

  1. D_Medlin 01/26/2010 at 11:25 AM #

    ncsufan13,

    Fair enough. Great Troy analogy by the way. I was thinking Saving Private Ryan, Omaha Beach scene. Except in that one everyone was scared sh*tless and still died. Oh well, nvm.

  2. Thinkpack17 01/26/2010 at 11:47 AM #

    We need to be all over Drew II in the full court press. With that said, when Horner goes our we need someone other than Howell as the tip of the spear on the press. He doesn’t have the energy level or the foot speed to be effective. Half the steals you get on the press are from big men breathing down the guard’s neck once the press is broken. Richard will be breathing…but he won’t be close enough for Drew II to feel it.

  3. triadwolf 01/26/2010 at 11:57 AM #

    I’m going out on a limb – the team that scores the most points will most likely win the game (It’s not a 100% guarantee since refs have a history of sometimes taking actual scored points away from NCSU).

    BTW ncsufan13 – “That guy” is every coach since Jimmy V.

  4. Rochester 01/26/2010 at 11:57 AM #

    ^Yes. We need to press correctly or not at all. Maryland abused our sad press by getting the ball up court so fast they were constantly playing 4-on-3 or 4-on-2.

    Larry Drew II has 14 turnovers in the last three games, all Carolina losses. We need to harass that kid into some easy buckets.

  5. BassPacker 01/26/2010 at 12:04 PM #

    if we make our freethrows, we win easily….really going out on a limb with that one.

    NCSU 73
    UNC 67

  6. Rochester 01/26/2010 at 12:18 PM #

    I agree with BassPacker. I’m a little nervous, but still optimistic. Let’s take these bastards down tonight.

  7. VaWolf82 01/26/2010 at 12:34 PM #

    Beyond the rivalry aspect, the significance of this games boils down into a match-up between two teams in the lower half of the conference. A win for either team is only one tiny step out of the lower-half. A loss on the other hand digs the hole a little deeper.

  8. GAWolf 01/26/2010 at 12:49 PM #

    I think there’s more “confidence” on the line here than just a tiny step out of the basement. This game, for both teams but for different reasons, is huge. It might not be to the media or non-interested fans, but for these two programs this game is absolutely huge. A loss either way could be the straw that breaks the back of this season.

  9. wufpup76 01/26/2010 at 12:50 PM #

    “NC State should look to get him (Smith) involved early and attempt to get Deon Thompson or whoever the Heels decide to put on him in foul trouble.”

    …

    “That being said, NC State can’t get in foul trouble.”

    ^Well, good luck to our team on all that 😉

    Hess is probably plotting our soul-crushing demise as we type (said in jest, mostly) 🙂

  10. Wolfy__79 01/26/2010 at 12:57 PM #

    someone said that unc has the better athletes?? some are, i guess but none in the frontcourt are better than tracy & co. today.. none in their backcourt are better today, that’s easy, they don’t have anything that resembles a true point guard while we make 1 out of 3. our best shooter is better than their best shooter. we are better than they are, they have had alot of time to prepare, despite that they suck. we should not lose this game!

    AGREED!?!

  11. VaWolf82 01/26/2010 at 12:58 PM #

    I think there’s more “confidence” on the line here than just a tiny step out of the basement.

    Mayyyyyyybe….but I’m skeptical. The confidence from the Duke win didn’t take State very far. The FSU road win came right after a demoralizing home loss to UVA. The bottom line is that I don’t give much credence to the carryover effect, either good or bad.

  12. Rochester 01/26/2010 at 1:06 PM #

    We seem to have an anti-carryover effect. However, if we win tonight, we face UNC-Durham (NC Central) on Saturday, so a similar setback shouldn’t await. Then we get an overripe Virginia team on the road next week. If we win tonight, I could easily see us string together 3 wins before we travel to Georgia Tech on 2/6.

  13. BJD95 01/26/2010 at 1:12 PM #

    VaWolf is right – the biggest thing on the line tonight is just how screwed the loser will be.

    UNC’s team chemistry is AWFUL this year…but they could get their crap together at any time and go on a 4-5 game winning streak. Let’s hope it doesn’t start tonight.

    I expect that if we win tonight, we’ll lose to UVA next. And vice versa. That’s the way this team seems to roll, yo.

  14. fullmoon1 01/26/2010 at 1:21 PM #

    This game is huge for both teams. The tarheels need it to keep the legions of walmart fans who bought those camo hats with the tarheel logo, oh yeah and the pink ones.If we win the implications are grand, having topped two blue teams in the same year puts us back on the tobacco road map, down year or not. I feel like state has more to gain from a win, unc just stopps the bleeding if they win. The mere fact that the tarheels have remained ranked until this point show how meaningless rankings are these days. Stomp a mudhole in that _ _ _ pack!!!!!!!!!!!!

  15. fullmoon1 01/26/2010 at 1:23 PM #

    If unc has better atheletes they have yet to show it. At least javi hasn’t made multiple passes into the stands lol.

  16. fullmoon1 01/26/2010 at 1:32 PM #

    I bet unc breaks records for getting to the line out of sympathy from the zebras

  17. StateFans 01/26/2010 at 2:15 PM #

    Don’t you guys get it?

    Lee Fowler’s master plan is WORKING!!

    If you just sit around and wait long enough, the cycles will naturally create a situation where even the best programs have struggles and they ultimately come down to our level for a month or two.

    It is GENIUS!!

  18. wufpup76 01/26/2010 at 2:21 PM #

    I always knew LF was smarter than the average AD.

    Foreward thinking. LF.

  19. waxhaw 01/26/2010 at 2:50 PM #

    Our football victory kept them out of the Peach Bowl.

    A basketball victory tonight could keep them out of the NCAA’s.

    Come on boys, let’s play like there’s no tomorrow. Sid….get yourself a key technical if the refs start screwing us. UNC-CH sucks!!

  20. fullmoon1 01/26/2010 at 3:07 PM #

    All my chips are in. i can only bring myself to watch the game if I think we are going to win. So I am going out on a limb and going on the record and stating the good state team will show up tonight and we will win. It may be ugly, it may not mean much as far as standings but wow, to go to sleep tonight knowing we gave the baby blues an L would go a long ways. Javi- please give them hell and play the entire game like it’s the last 2 minutes, Tracy- play like it’s your birthday, Wood-light them up all night long,Howell-don’t put it on the floor and stuff it every chance you get, Sid-work the refs all night long, get a “t” if you have to .

  21. MA Wolfpack 01/26/2010 at 3:58 PM #

    Going back to a reply to my original post…the point spreads absolutely matter. That is the general public and professional opinion of the game…that holds a lot more credibility than extremely biased opinions provided in this area of the country. You are correct that odds makers do not care about the line…they want 50/50 on each team. With that said, the line is set based on expectations and adjusted when the public moves it. People saying NCSU should win this game have a different opinion than the general public and professionals that study this stuff.

    When talking about UNC’s guards, I would trade Javi/FD/Mays/CJW for Drew/Strickland/Graves/McDonald and not think twice about it. I think they are much more talented than NCSU.

  22. Thinkpack17 01/26/2010 at 4:29 PM #

    ^Indeed. Someone mentioned a straight up trade Javi for Drew, I wouldn’t take that one. So take off Javi and Drew and I’ll run with that trade. Strickland is better than Drew II and should be starting, but Roy probably doesn’t trust a freshman with the ship. Can’t really blame him. If I had to pick a starter out of Drew, Javi and Strick I’d probably go with Javi. But no doubt they are deeper in the backcourt. Will be next year too.

  23. SMD 01/26/2010 at 4:42 PM #

    Mark it down – we lose by 12-16 points tonight. The struggles that the Holes have had, largely center around youth. The talent they have far exceeds our talent.

    Add in the fact that Roy has had nearly a week to prepare them and that we just showed why the Duke win was an absolute fluke and you’ve got the makings for a disaster.

    Of course, if you don’t invest yourself, you can’t be let down. More State fans need to learn this. 😉

  24. wolfpackdawg 01/26/2010 at 4:45 PM #

    We shoot about 35% from the field and lose…and have at least a 7 minute stretch where we don’t score…Never fails.

  25. MA Wolfpack 01/26/2010 at 5:18 PM #

    I think NCSU will play very well tonight, but UNC’s “good” will beat our “good” so that still may not be enough. We’ll need mistakes from UNC to pull this one out. We’ll have to score in the 80s to win so hopefully we push the ball and get a few easy shots in transition.

1 2 3

Leave a Reply