Mid-Season ACC Review

09-10 Basketball ACC Teams College Basketball Editor's Picks General Stat of the Day70

As we reach the mid-point of the regular season and move into conference play, I thought it would be interesting to take a little time and look at what has been accomplished thus far in the season. So here is a summary of State’s season to date:

RPI Rank – 96
OOC SOS Rank – 247
Overall SOS Rank – 202 (Includes WF game)

Results:

Jan6 States Results

Note: This breakdown comes from CBS Sports. Go here if you want to follow this type of information as the season unfolds.

A few random thoughts:

– To date, State has only played one game against a team that is on track to receive an at-large bid to the NCAAT.

– With only two-Top 100s win at the half-way point of the season, anyone talking about improvement, NCAAT, or NIT needs to be taken with a rather large grain of salt. (Note that Marquette had a big win last night against #14 Georgetown to move into the Top 100.)

– For all of the heat generated by the Florida game, the actual impact on the season is nearly imperceptible. Florida is neither a good team, nor a bad one. Thus the loss isn’t embarrassing (except for the way it was lost), nor would have a win have constituted anything significant.

– In past seasons, we’ve compiled and discussed the OOC SOS for the ACC. Sidney is continuing Herb’s tactic of playing one of the weakest OOC schedules in the conference. Anyone that attributes that trend to “bad luck” simply hasn’t been paying attention. BTW, look for the already bad OOC SOS to take a big drop once State plays NCCU….currently 0-13 vs Div 1 opponents.

For a little broader perspective, let’s summarize the season for all of the ACC teams with each team’s games broken down into categories:

Jan6 ACC Summary

Thoughts:

– I highlighted a few items of general interest
– OOC SOS ranked 200+ with special emphasis on UM’s 300+ ranking
– Top 25 and Top 50 wins (required to get at-large NCAAT bid)

– I generally hate the NCAAT brackets done early in the year. Very few teams are actually “In” during Jan (though a good number are definitely “Out”). So think of my NCAAT projections more of a judgment of the season to date, rather than a prediction. The teams that are “In” have done well and just need to continue. The “Bubble” teams need to step up and improve their resume to insure that they fall on the right side of the bubble.

– The ACC is currently ranked third by RPI (behind the Big East and Big 12). Interestingly enough, the Atlantic 10 is ranked 5th pushing the Big Televen and Pac-10 into 6th and 7th.

– Many people around here have commented that the ACC is weaker this year. I think that this table supports that conclusion because there only two teams currently on track to the make the NCAAT and five teams pretty much out of contention (barring a dramatic turnaround).

– It’s shouldn’t be hard to see that there is a very real possibility of having a 9-7 conference record and still needing multiple wins in the ACCT to get an at-large bid. (This happened to VT just two years ago when the ACC was the #1 ranked conference.)

Just for kicks and giggles, let’s look at wins against Top 25 and Top 50 competition that ACC teams have accumulated so far:

Jan6 Top 50 Wins

There is a distinct shortage of big-name opponents on this list. You have to wonder how many of the mid-majors (other than Gonzaga) will still be in the Top 50 on Selection Sunday.

Let’s wrap up the mid-season review with a little preview of State’s ACC season:

2010 ACC Schedule

– If I could rearrange the schedule, I would swap the home games against Duke & Clemson for home games against FSU & GT. I figure that location won’t improve State’s chance for a win against either Duke or Clemson…but historically, FSU and GT are much tougher at home than they are on the road.

– Based on what little we know now, State’s schedule looks pretty balanced and would probably place State somewhere in the middle with respect to toughest conference schedules. If all goes reasonably well at home/work, we’ll take another look at conference SOS during the week leading up to the ACCT.

Closing Thoughts

I’m a results-orientated type of guy so State hasn’t accomplished anything to date that leads me to believe that this season is going to be substantially better than the last three. Those that are claiming “improvement” are apparently seeing things that somehow haven’t translated into wins. I hope that the claims of improvement are correct…but for now, I’m extremely skeptical.

Note that this entry is not a discussion about coaching, but about the results to date, the other ACC teams, and prospects for the season. Post any coaching comments on the forum thread created just for that purpose.

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

09-10 Basketball ACC Teams College Basketball Editor's Picks General Stat of the Day

70 Responses to Mid-Season ACC Review

  1. choppack1 01/08/2010 at 9:37 AM #

    I see our magic # as 11 wins in our next 17 games to get an NCAA bid. I think we can all agree that’s pretty unlikely. (This means that we’d have to 10 of our next 16 ACC games and beat Central. This can be done going 9-7 w/a 1st round tourney win or going 10-6 in regular season.)

    I do think that we’ve improved our athleticism, rebounding and D…unfortunately, it hasn’t really translated into a team that is better positioned to go to the NCAAs this year.

    I think this team can realistically go 7-9 – especially when you consider that this is possibly the weakest ACC I’ve seen in my lifetime. While we won’t be more talented than most of our opponents, none of our opponents really seem unbeatable at this point.

    As stated earlier – the losses vs. Florida and Arizona virtually insure that we have to do some really good work out of conference.

  2. Rick 01/08/2010 at 9:44 AM #

    It’s not too hard to improve from an 11th place finish

  3. choppack1 01/08/2010 at 10:28 AM #

    Rick – I think next year’s do or die for Sid, thus far he’s doing enough to meet the very low standards set for him to keep his job – and if all goes well, 2 new recruits will join the wolfpack who can really help shore up our weaknesses.

  4. BJD95 01/08/2010 at 10:32 AM #

    Wow, I go away for a few months to address some “real life” issues, and most of the community has gone into complete Pollyanna mode. I tip my hat to VaWolf for his excellent work and his continued participation in the reality-based community.

    As many “ifs” as you want to cite to make our track record look better, you could also just as easily find a flipside, which is conveniently ignored. We very easily could have lost to a terrible Auburn squad. Our OOC opponents may have narrowly avoided some signature wins, but they also barely escaped pitiful losses. For example, right before our game, Arizona needed an off-balance running 3 to beat an awful Lipscomb team in OT. This is why you don’t play the “if” game – given a large enough sample size, it all balances out. Indeed, you are what the numbers say you are.

    This is very similar to the nonsense people spouted during Amato’s 10-3 year. “We were just 15 points away for 13-0!!!!!” Those people noted how things could have been better with a few more bounces, while completely ignoring very close calls against Texas Tech (missed 40-yard FG at end of regulation, their kicker’s only miss from that range all year) and Duke (QB missed wide open receiver down the seam in last seconds, which would have set up game-winning FG try from a guy who had already made 2 in the 50-yard range that day). As is usually the case, the “breaks” more or less evened out. Given a longer time span, they ALWAYS do.

    It also goes back to a conversation Jeff and I had very early in the season (we recorded it, but never posted it). After a sane logical discussion of our points of view, I noted that I would indeed CONSIDER backing off my bright-line “NCAAT or bust” test (which I still think is completely fair for any 4th year head coach who has never danced) if we scored an A+ in effort and defensive intensity. But it was important to still have objective criteria, too. I draw that line as “solid NIT” level performance, and without that, I see no reason to even consider mushy subjective factors. I believe I accurately predicted that too many people would cling to “any” shreds of subjective attitude improvement and completely abandon any notion of objective accountability. Congratulations – you’re doing exactly what Lee Fowler wants you to do. Don’t forget to send money and be quiet like good little boys and girls!

    To use a Chris Rock reference, playing hard at the major D-1 level is a little like staying out of jail. Sure, it’s better than the alternative, but you shouldn’t expect a freaking medal for it.

  5. Wolf74 01/08/2010 at 10:37 AM #

    First let me preface my statement by saying I am not a Lowe fan, nor am I a Lowe hater. Because of a completely botched coaching search by our AD, we hired a coach that did not have college coaching experience and needed to learn the college “game” and set up recruiting lines. I want the best coach for NCSU and a return to winning some championships. This year and next, I think we will see and be able to judge coach Lowe against that criteria.
    Now with that said, I cannot condemn the OOC schedule. With, what would normally be exepted, a win or two more by the Florida, Arizona and Winthrop we would have had a very middle of the ACC OOC schedule. We cann’t ask more than that until we have a middle of the ACC team. If our program evolves into a top tier ACC team, then I would expect a top tier type schedule.
    As for improvement, to date we appear to be slightly improved. The team appears to play harder and with more cohesion. If that continues, I would expect a very slight improvement in the record. Perhaps enough to get us in the NIT with a home game or two. If that trend doesn’t continue, I would expect coach Lowe to start next season on the hot seat.
    Playing harder and with more cohesion isn’t enough. Without naming names, we are still a couple of players short of being able to field a complete ACC level team. We have players that appear to play hard but in the stats, not much shows up. We need more and better players. That is coach Lowes responsibility – he has made recruiting misses and mistakes but that is what you get when you hire a coach with no college experience and no recruiting network. These missing players will reportedly be in Raleigh next season. Barring a meltdown this season, that is when I will judge our coach. After that we can start complaining about our OOC schedule.

  6. choppack1 01/08/2010 at 11:16 AM #

    BJD – I think some of us have accepted the fact that unless he’s caught doing something that could result in him being fired even if he was a successful coach, he’s coming back next year w/ a chance to keep his job w/ an NCAA bid.

    It appears that the first part is in place if we’re going to have any overall improvement for EVERYTHING related to NC State. I’m looking forward to seeing how these things will flush out.

  7. packfan03 01/08/2010 at 11:38 AM #

    “I believe I accurately predicted that too many people would cling to “any” shreds of subjective attitude improvement and completely abandon any notion of objective accountability.”

    Sports “analysis” is subjective, that’s why people talk on this forum. It’s interesting that you refuse subjective improvements, but impose an entirely subjective measuring stick for our program. Does the four year mark apply to any program in the country, or just NC State? It seems to me, the popular opinion amongst paid analysts is that five years is the breaking point for new coaches to get their system and recruits effectively in place.

    I think the four year mark fails to put our coaching position in context. Do you think NC State is an attractive job to head coaching candidates? Recruiting and being measured (unfairly I may add) next to Duke and Carolina isn’t easy…Just ask a final four coach who turned us down in John Calipari. Although, he may have been swayed by the fact that Herb Sendek received very little fan support in his tenure here, yet left as one of the most respected (by his peers) coaches in the game. It took him six years to get us to the dance, which I’m sure you realize.

    It’s obvious that our team isn’t great. But there is nothing wrong with valuing positive attitudes, great efforts and the type of unselfish play that will yield successful results when our team has more talent.

  8. Wulfpack 01/08/2010 at 12:06 PM #

    Yes, I do believe this is a fairly attractive job. And just because Sid was the only coach we could get, thanks to LF sabbatoging the program, doesn’t mean he is the only coach that should lead the program. Our standards as a university have tanked into the abyss. It appears many fans are following our incompetent leaders’ lead. That’s exactly what they want to happen.

  9. Texpack 01/08/2010 at 12:17 PM #

    It is in no way shape form or fashion unfair to measure the NC State program’s performance next to Duke and Carolina. Until V’s departure, NC State was virtually always better than Duke. There is little objective evidence to support placing State any lower than the second best basketball program in the ACC between it’s creation and 1990.

    We clearly haven’t been at that level for the past 20 years, but there isn’t anything structural that has changed over that time to prevent us from returning to our rightful status as a perpetual top tier of the ACC program. The attitude toward athletics in the administration is the only thing that has changed.

  10. GAWolf 01/08/2010 at 12:20 PM #

    THe funny thing about all of this… if you win and win consistently, pretty much none of this matters. Statistics are for losers takes on a whole new meaning here… (not that we have anything other than statistics to discuss so I’m not blaming any of you for mashing it out.)

  11. Classof89 01/08/2010 at 12:47 PM #

    “I think some of us have accepted the fact that unless he’s caught doing something that could result in him being fired even if he was a successful coach, he’s coming back next year w/ a chance to keep his job w/ an NCAA bid. ”

    I’m not sure I agree that he’s insulated himself from the hot seat with the results thus far. As I’ve posted on another thread, after this weekend’s Virginia game, we have an extremely tough five game stretch featuring Duke, UNC, and Clemson at home and Maryland and FSU on the road (the two road trips other than Duke and UNC that we’ve traditionally performed the worst on).

    We blow the UVa game at home, and we are staring an 0-7 ACC start square in the face. And I think that would earn him a spot on the “hot seat” articles and blog entries that begin appearing in February.

    We’ll learn over the next three weeks whether this team really has improved or not.

  12. Thinkpack17 01/08/2010 at 12:56 PM #

    “We blow the UVa game at home, and we are staring an 0-7 ACC start square in the face. And I think that would earn him a spot on the “hot seat” articles and blog entries that begin appearing in February.”

    Oh absolutely. It’s just I don’t know what good could come of canning Sid before canning Lee. It’s like chopping the tip of the tail off a lizard.

  13. Class of 2009 01/08/2010 at 1:20 PM #

    For a team-in-progress, I think a couple powder puffs are necessary, but VaWolf’s point is well served. I’m with Thinkpack17 in that I don’t always see eye-to-eye with VaWolf, but it’s a good status report on where we are now. The fact UNC is on the bubble is proof that this is not a NCAAT projection, but just a “in the moment” snapshot.

    Interesting scenario: Say we play Carolina and they lay a College of Charleston on the hardwood. Obviously that would have an impact on the RPI, but to what extent? This season, finishing on the bubble and receiving an NIT bid would be a good sign of things to come (especially if we can pull those results off with the small-caliber weapons we are touting ATM).

    Major Dittos, VaWolf.

  14. MP 01/08/2010 at 1:39 PM #

    Very good point about the UVA game and the next 3 weeks, Co’89. And relating that to TP17’s follow up comment re: Lowe/Fowler:

    If our team lays an 0-7 egg and/or implodes this season – yet Lee Fowler is still Athletic Director when classes start next fall – we should all literally agree on the time and place to stage a revolt, coup, whatever you want to call it. There had better be someone of importance who is making LF’s future employment dependent on AT LEAST an NIT season.

    THIS YEAR.

  15. bradleyb123 01/08/2010 at 4:09 PM #

    Someone said earlier that we can’t really judge NC State against last year’s team without an ACC record, because the OOC schedules are so varied. But we could compare our RPI ranking with that of NC State at the same point last season, couldn’t we? That might give us an idea of how this year’s team compares to last year’s team.

    I personally think we’re better. I believe this team scraps to the end better than last year. Last year we built leads and blew them. This year, we play stronger and stronger throughout the second half, and we’ve overcome a number of second half leads. What I like the most about this team is that I see a lot of ways we can still get better. I didn’t see much hope for better last season. But we’ve done pretty well in spite of Wood’s poor shooting. But he’s coming out of that. If he continues improving his shot, it will help our three point percentage, and open up the middle for Tracy Smith more. Stuff like that amounts to very real opportunities for us to improve. Javi and Degand are playing a little better, too.

    We may fall on our faces in the conference. I concede that is a very real possibility. But an 8-8 record is not inconceivable, either. The jury is still out. I wish so many of us wouldn’t get so down on this team already. We could be doing a LOT worse.

  16. legacyman 01/08/2010 at 9:29 PM #

    If anyone believes that unc-ch is a bubble team then I have a bridge in NY to sell you. Records be darned, unc-ch will get a bid as they are one of the NCAA cash cows.

    NC State is a much improved team this year and will be better by season’s end. Is the record better, I don;t know as I haven’t analyzed it but my thoughts come from watching every home game in person and listening or watching every road game.

    Javi is three or four times the player he was as a frosh. Tracy is an absolute beast inside. Scott Woods is the outside threat we have never had since Whittenburg and Monroe and Scott may end up better than either of them.

    Our rebounding is beginning to improve and that has been missing since Les’ days.

    If you can’t see improvement then please open your eyes the next time we play.

  17. packplantpath 01/09/2010 at 11:32 AM #

    “Recruiting and being measured (unfairly I may add) next to Duke and Carolina isn’t easy…Just ask a final four coach who turned us down in John Calipari. Just ask a final four coach who turned us down in John Calipari. Although, he may have been swayed by the fact that Herb Sendek received very little fan support in his tenure here, yet left as one of the most respected (by his peers) coaches in the game.”

    That has nothing to do with calipari not taking the job. Calipari basically said he didn’t want to deal with the academic requirements the acc has. Nothing more, nothing less. I’m sure somebody remembers where a link to this is.

  18. sautz 01/09/2010 at 3:03 PM #

    “Javi is three or four times the player he was as a frosh. Tracy is an absolute beast inside. Scott Woods is the outside threat we have never had since Whittenburg and Monroe and Scott may end up better than either of them.

    Our rebounding is beginning to improve and that has been missing since Les’ days.

    If you can’t see improvement then please open your eyes the next time we play.”

    My eyes were open and we lost to UVa. At home. Scratches head.

  19. bradleyb123 01/11/2010 at 3:12 PM #

    We had a 10-point lead midway through the second half.

    And then the wheels came off.

    Inconsistency is a normal attribute of a young, and inexperienced team. Yes, we have some experience on the court in Javi, Degand, Horner and Smith. But we also have a LOT of inexperience in other starters and reserves.

    We’ll be fine. We let one slip away that we coulda/shoulda won by double-figures. We went cold and couldn’t hit free throws. What can you do?

  20. VaWolf82 01/11/2010 at 4:01 PM #

    We had a 10-point lead midway through the second half.

    And then the wheels came off.

    It’s a good thing that the team is so much better this year, or it could have really gotten ugly. 😉

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