Gators come to town

09-10 Basketball111

The Florida Gators come to town for an ‘inflexion’ in the Wolpack’s 2009-2010 season.

To this point in the season, the NC State has tracked slightly ahead of expectations. Today’s game will be particularly significant to the Wolfpack’s season because of the ‘Florida’ name and the major conference in which the Gators play. If Coach Lowe’s Wolfpack is fortunate enough to be discussed for any postseason tournaments when we get to March, today’s game will truly be one of the swing games on our schedule.

Ignoring Florida for a moment, the Pack could effectively hold a 12-3 record before launching into the main part of the ACC schedule with a ‘must win’ when we host very beatable Virginia next Saturday, Jan 9th at noon. If one were to presume wins over Holy Cross on (Jan 6) and North Carolina Central (Jan 30th) then today’s game makes the difference between a solid 13-3 record or a respectable 12-4 that would require six conference wins to get to 18 wins. At the end of the year, 18 wins could be enough to earn an NIT berth; and non-conference wins over both Marquette and Florida could be differentiating factors for the Wolfpack.

This is the type of game that deserves a deeper look at the opponent. There is no reason for us add to all of the hard work already provided here by Backing the Pack.

Between opponents’ low 3FG% and low 3FGA/FGA ratio, Florida’s perimeter D is looking positively Duke-esque. They’ve turned around their interior defense as well. And they’re forcing lots of turnovers while avoiding fouls, which is the defensive ideal everyone should strive for. I wonder about that TO%, though. Their steal and block rates are right in line with last year’s, so the higher TO% could be a function of a slate of crappy, mistake-prone foes. But that’s pure conjecture; obviously, there’s much more to a team’s defensive impact than block and steal rates.

I have a hard time believing their FG% defense is that much better, and if we manage to not throw the ball away willy-nilly, second chance opportunities should be available.

The Pomeroy Predictor says flip a coin.

If we’re flipping a coin in the matter then one can only hope that the home court advantage can make the difference today.

Go Pack!

Post-Script: For some additional fun, please click here to see comments before last season’s match-up with the Gators that focused a lot on former Wolfpack recruit, Dan Werner. Backing the Pack penned the following blurb today:

If I recall correctly, Werner was much more highly regarded than Dennis Horner coming out of high school, but Horner’s going to have the better college career when all is said and done. Not to sell Werner short–he’s been a reliable role player throughout his career. He’s just never been able to take the next step, and he’s shooting a modest 31.9% from beyond the arc in 3+ seasons, which feels disappointing in retrospect.

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09-10 Basketball

111 Responses to Gators come to town

  1. Rick 01/04/2010 at 2:35 PM #

    “Wolftown – has Sid ever taken ownership? I mean, this is his 3rd year, I’ve never heard him say, “I shouldn’t have done that.””

    In the post game he did.
    After saying they need to make FTs he said he and the staff have to take the blame for this loss.

  2. bradleyb123 01/04/2010 at 2:49 PM #

    ^^^ “What should worry you is that we executed Sidney Lowe’s strategy perfectly…and lost.”

    It would worry me only that the strategy SHOULD have worked out fine. The only way we lose this game is if a player hits a 75-footer. I’ll take those odd EVERY NIGHT OUT, and if my team could get into this situation every night, my team finishes unbeaten or with maybe one loss.

    All we had to do was hit a free throw or two and we win in regulation, or seal it in overtime. We just couldn’t hit free throws. Period.

  3. hball57 01/04/2010 at 2:52 PM #

    Some of you comment as if Coaches never respond to your criticisms. Read some of your comments and you will understand why. If you go up to any coach in the at the professional, college or HS level and tell them they need to practice free throws they should slap you! All coaches practice free throws! All of the time! How arrogant of some posters to think that Coaches don’t do something like this! Maybe you should simply stop trying to find someone to blame for something you couldn’t do – Coach basketball at that level.

  4. 87GloryDays 01/04/2010 at 3:00 PM #

    Sidney once again did not have his team in the best position for success and that will be his downfall. Whether you like the end game fouling ( which Valvano used extensively – remember the Wake 3OT game in Greensboro) or not, they still have to be in the best situation. Sidney never seems to have the right combination in together and obviously did not at the end. How can you explain having an 80 % FT shooter ( Wood) taking the ball out of bounds and passing twice to a 37.5 % FT shooter ( Degand) ? Or why was the best FT shooter on the team ( Mays, 84 %) on the bench ? If I am smart enough to see this from my couch, then obviously one of the 5 bench coaches have this information as well. This is a great example of Sidneys 4 years. The players do not play hard on every play and there is no purpose on every dribble, pass, etc. Think of how many lazy passes, lost dribbles, half hearted rebounds that have been seen during Sid’s tenure. They need to, and can, play harder and better, but the coaches have to step up big time.

  5. bradleyb123 01/04/2010 at 3:07 PM #

    hball, some people have already decided in their own minds (not just people on this site, but some State fans in general) that Sid needs to go. He can do no right. Any and everything is fodder for criticism when you want him to go. I’m the same way regarding Lee Fowler. He just hired a good coach for the women’s basketball program, but I don’t want him getting any credit because it could help him keep his job. If you see Sid in the same light, then you can’t give him an ounce of credit for anything. The problem is when people let their goal of ousting Sidney overshadow any actual positives or improvements in our program.

    We lost several veteran players from last year’s team, and replaced them with a bunch of true freshmen. By all rights, we should be worse than last year, but we’re arguably better in a lot of ways. Take away a miracle 75 foot shot and we’re 11-3 right now, looking pretty decent. I just don’t know what it will take to please the people that want Sidney gone. Even if we finish 8-8 in the conference, I predict people will just attribute that to the ACC being weaker than usual. Like my opinion of Lee Fowler, for some people, Sid can do nothing right.

    But anyone that looks at this outcome objectively can only conclude that we got robbed. This game was in our back pocket and we had it stolen from us, by all rights. Sure, we could have done some things better. But the strategy was a good one. But when someone hits a 75-footer, what can you say? It hurts. But I can’t complain about the effort. We played well enough to win and had it stolen from us.

  6. choppack1 01/04/2010 at 3:09 PM #

    “It would worry me only that the strategy SHOULD have worked out fine. The only way we lose this game is if a player hits a 75-footer. I’ll take those odd EVERY NIGHT OUT, and if my team could get into this situation every night, my team finishes unbeaten or with maybe one loss.

    All we had to do was hit a free throw or two and we win in regulation, or seal it in overtime. We just couldn’t hit free throws. Period.
    It would worry me only that the strategy SHOULD have worked out fine. The only way we lose this game is if a player hits a 75-footer. I’ll take those odd EVERY NIGHT OUT, and if my team could get into this situation every night, my team finishes unbeaten or with maybe one loss.

    All we had to do was hit a free throw or two and we win in regulation, or seal it in overtime. We just couldn’t hit free throws. Period.”

    Bradley – if we’re up by 3 points, and we’re in the 1 and 1, and we have a 38%, 58%, 66% and Horner likely to catch the ball – do you really want us fouling w/ 10 seconds left? Because that was the strategy. It could have easily backfired when Javi stepped to the line – and instead of having a heave from 75 feet, they to win, they could have had a layup or a regular 3.

    We undertook a strategy that included the possibility of a loss. If this was just the strategy w/ 3 seconds left – I could buy it, but this strategy started w/ 11 seconds left. The direct result of the strategy was to give them 3 chances to make up 3 points…the odds of that are signficantly better.

  7. packfan03 01/04/2010 at 3:11 PM #

    Mays had missed every shot he had taken on the night and continued a slump that started before UNCG. Scott Wood is a fresh. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to put your more experienced players on the free throw line in late game situations. Degand was not a 37.5% free throw shooter entering the Fla. game, that’s his percentage after the 1-5 night at the stripe. Plus, in those situations, it makes sense to pass to your guards who are less likely to turn the ball over and are able to pass more effectively out of traps.

  8. Pack Mentality 01/04/2010 at 3:13 PM #

    hball – I am not one of the people who call for Sid’s firing all the time. But I am a results oriented fan. I have never even coached a kid’s league team, much less high school. But I GUARANTEE that I would be able to coach an ACC team to multiple last place finishes.

    So please, stop acting like people being unhappy with coaching issues is unwarranted.

  9. bradleyb123 01/04/2010 at 3:31 PM #

    ^^^ “Bradley – if we’re up by 3 points, and we’re in the 1 and 1, and we have a 38%, 58%, 66% and Horner likely to catch the ball – do you really want us fouling w/ 10 seconds left? Because that was the strategy.”

    Not what I read. I thought I read that Sidney didn’t want us to foul then, we just did.

    Try to blame Sidney all you want, but we lost because of a miracle shot. Just admit that and we can ALL move on. Playing Monday Morning QB isn’t doing any good. If we’re in this same situation 100 times in a row, up two points, 2.6 seconds, on the free throw line, opponent with no time outs, and we miss the free throw… how many of those 100 games do you think we win? I’m thinking in the neighborhood of 98 or 99.

  10. bradleyb123 01/04/2010 at 3:33 PM #

    ^^^ “So please, stop acting like people being unhappy with coaching issues is unwarranted.”

    What’s unwarranted is criticizing Sid for us losing on a MIRACLE SHOT. I was happy, the game was in hand. Until the shot came down from orbit and swished the net. Criticism is fine and dandy. But when you criticize him incessantly when the only reason we lost was a couple of missed free throws combined with a MIRACLE shot, it reveals an anti-Sid agenda on the part of the critic.

    Just be fair about it. Call it what it was — a miracle shot that prevented a good strategy from winning. By all rights, we won this game. It was stolen by virtue of a miracle shot.

    The Sid-haters may have plenty of legitimate opportunities to complain. This isn’t one of them. I was happy with our strategy. We just lost on a hail mary. I’m guessing we had about a 1% chance of losing this game like we did. This just happened to be that 1%.

    I liked the fouling strategy. The most they get is two points when we’re up three. And their free throws were not a lock. Most of their missed free throws are going to end up in our hands. They could have easily missed a free throw or two and we’d have won. It was a disgusting way to lose, but it wasn’t Sid’s fault. Not this one.

  11. packfan03 01/04/2010 at 3:36 PM #

    ^^bradleyb123, I agree completely. Tough to swallow a loss on a 75 foot dagger, but luck was the culprit – not coaching.

  12. Pack Mentality 01/04/2010 at 3:37 PM #

    Arizona game: it’s all fine because Tracy Smith was out.
    Florida game: it’s all fine because it’s a miracle shot.
    Northwestern game: it’s all fine because they might make the NCAAs.
    Wake game: it’s all fine because they were predicted to be better than us anyway.

    I need some help. I’m starting to run out of excuses.

  13. packfan03 01/04/2010 at 3:42 PM #

    ^^Nobody is happy we lost those games, but let’s be realistic. There is a reason we are projected to finish last in the ACC. I’m hopeful that we will exceed these expectations and Sidney and our boys will continue to make progress. I sure feel like we have made progress this year, and with fewer resources than we will have in the future.

  14. bradleyb123 01/04/2010 at 4:04 PM #

    Pack Mentality, I guess we should have run the table, eh? 😉

    I’m not happy with a loss. But losing the way we’ve lost the four games this year is a lot easier to take than the way we lost games last year. I’m not making the excuses you’re making, but surely you aren’t seriously suggesting that the miracle shot in any way compares to our other losses? This was about as sure of a win as a loss can be. It was stolen. Can you at least concede that much? Just this ONE game. Not the other losses. Because right now, we really should be 11-3 at the worst.

    As for Arizona, do you really not think our best inside player would have made 2-3 points difference for us? Even mighty Carolina lost last year with just Ty Lawson on the bench. And our margin of error is more slim than last year’s Carolina team! One player being out DOES make a BIG difference for our team, especially when it’s one of our best players.

    I don’t like making excuses. But we have a couple of pretty valid coulda/woulda/shouldas in our list of losses. I’m not excusing the losses, but I do think it excuses Sidney from some of the blame for them. That’s all. We’re a razor’s edge away from being 12-2 right now.

    But I also get some hope from all this. As long as our guys don’t get down on themselves from that gut-wrenching loss, I think we’ll be ok and continue to improve. I’m still not convinced we won’t get an NCAAT bid this year. We need to steal a quality win or three in the conference. Carolina is ranked pretty high, yet they’re also very beatable I believe. Steal one of those meetings and we can forget about the loss to Florida.

  15. hball57 01/04/2010 at 4:07 PM #

    Hey guys, criticize all you want. But when some make statements like “they need to practice FT shooting” or “they need to practice rebounding” in my opinion you are either being arrogant or ignorant! We can debate strategy and that’s fine. But if you really think this team does not practice those things, you really shouldn’t post your opinion! Everyone can have any agenda they want. On another site someone posted “it will never happen at NC State. Time to pull for another team.” I say GO, because real State fans don’t need you!

    I know it’s human nature to find every fault in the team and place blame on someone. Earlier in the year people said they would be happy to see a team that works hard, plays together and lays it on the line. Don’t you have that? I am proud of Dennis Horner for his effort. I am proud of Javi for his heart. I am proud of Tracy for his consistant work effort. I am proud of Sidney for defining the roles on his team but giving playing time according to who is performing. We are 10-4 and could finish 12-3 in our Non-Conference schedule. For this team, this year, is that not good? Or would you rather be Boston College?

  16. VaWolf82 01/04/2010 at 4:08 PM #

    I need some help. I’m starting to run out of excuses.

    You need to start recycling some then. 😉

  17. bradleyb123 01/04/2010 at 4:09 PM #

    Here’s the video. This is how we lost. Un-freakin-believable.

  18. packof81 01/04/2010 at 4:12 PM #

    Had we made 2 of the many free throws we missed, Florida’s miracle shot would not have won this game. That is self evident.

    Sid’s team needs a remedial seminar in free throw shooting and lots of practice shooting free throws. The results they’ve gotten thus far demonstrate this need clearly, arrogance or ignorance on the part of observers notwithstanding.

  19. Pack Mentality 01/04/2010 at 4:16 PM #

    bradleyb – I’m not conceding that the game just came down to 1 shot and there weren’t other mistakes that were made throughout the game. As far as making excuses, I don’t believe in it. Notice how the good teams always get lucky wins and the bad teams have luck going against them. Kinda makes you think it’s not really all about luck.

    I live in the real world though where making the NIT means you had a crappy year. I want to make the NCAA. But I also am not crazy enough to really think that will happen.

    So I guess as far as I’m concerned, we are 1-4 against non-cupcakes. We are 0-1 in the ACC. I’m not happy about that no matter how many woulda, shoulda, coulda there are. And we BETTER be better than last year and the preseason prediction because that is so low of a bar that most teams would laugh at those expectations.

  20. 87GloryDays 01/04/2010 at 4:21 PM #

    To say that we lost just because of a lucky shot, and not the events that led up to that lucky shot is riduclous. We outplayed them for most of the game and never should have been in that situation in the first place. But this team, and all of Sidneys teams, lack intensity, do not understand their roles at all times, and do not execute. That falls on the coaches. The kid who got the rebound did so because Tracy and Horner were told not to make an attempt at the rebound by their coaches. Watch the video. The kid was outside of Tracy on the lane, but went straight to the ball as Tracy was going backwards. Who told them to do this ? If Tracy gets the rebound, there is no miracle shot. You have to play hard and agressively every minute and we do not. This is why Arizona went the entire court barely defended to hit a layup, etc. Our teams ” hope” to win instead of playing hard for 40 minutes and “expecting” to win. That is the difference between teams that have great coaching vs coaches that are mediocre. I will guarantee that Roy Williams, Coach K, Bill Self, etc would have this team playing much harder than they do now. There is 3 1/2 years of history to back this up not just 1 “lucky” shot.

  21. bradleyb123 01/04/2010 at 4:34 PM #

    The strategy we played SHOULD have netted us a win. There was nothing wrong with the strategy. Even if we intentionally missed that last free throw, which I’m not convinced we did. When Farnold missed that, I was happy. I knew the clock would run out and even if they launched a prayer of a shot, no way it goes in from that distance. We lost because of that lucky shot, and nothing else. There are always things we could have done better at different points in the game. We could have won by 20 and it wouldn’t have been an issue. Florida also could have done things better and not needed that lucky shot. We could probably list dozens of things we and they could have done differently. But as it stands, this is how the game went. We positioned ourselves to win this game, and the ONLY thing that prevented it was a DAYUM LUCKY MIRACLE SHOT. So yes, the blame for this loss is placed squarely on that one shot.

    Had it been a routine 20 footer of a three point shot, then we’d have just lost with nothing to be happy about. But this hail mary miracle shot is different. It was just dayum, dirty, rotten luck. We won this game, then had it stolen out from under us.

  22. Wulfpack 01/04/2010 at 4:37 PM #

    Just heard on the radio that Tim Peeler is reporting that Degand’s miss was intentional. I’m truly baffled by this. How can it be?

  23. bradleyb123 01/04/2010 at 4:40 PM #

    If Degand had made the free throw, enabling Florida to inbound the ball and shoot a much shorter, more makeable three, and hit it, and we lost in the second overtime, people would have said Degand should have intentionally missed that free throw. Yes it’s a straw man argument, but you know this to be true. The only fact is that hindsight is 20-20. But in the heat of the moment, we played it right, and we just got beat by a miracle.

    I hope we get to face them in the Big Dance and eliminate them. That will atone for their luck yesterday.

  24. bradleyb123 01/04/2010 at 4:43 PM #

    Wulfpack, I was glad when he missed it. Look at the shot they had to make as a result of his miss. It wasn’t a 20 footer. It was more like 70. It shouldn’t have gone in, but once every few years, a guy hits a shot like this. That doesn’t mean the strategy wasn’t sound. It means we got burned.

    Look at it like this: If Degand makes that shot, there’s a MUCH better shot at going to a second overtime. With 2.6 seconds left, they would have time to throw the ball across halfcourt for a very makeable shot that would force another overtime. And who knows who would have won then. For us to win this game, all he had to do was miss a 70 foot shot. Frankly, I like the percentages of that strategy more than if Degand had made the shot.

    Thanks to dumb luck, it just didn’t work out in this instance. I’d take this situation EVERY game. Because we’re going to win about 99 times out of a hundred.

  25. choppack1 01/04/2010 at 4:45 PM #

    “We won this game, then had it stolen out from under us.”

    I disagree, I think that this outcome is a chance you take when you foul to prevent the 3 when there’s time enough for you to end up back on the foul line.

    As I stated earlier – they had 3 possessions to try and tie the game.
    *The first possession, they chose not to.
    *the second possession, they accidentally banked in a foul shot (and I think this may have been luckier than the 75 footer).
    *the third possession – they had the prayer answered.

    So, yes, it was definitely bad luck – but as I stated earlier, funny how good teams seem to have good luck and bad teams seem to have lots of bad luck.

    I think the bigger question for this team and Coach will be how we fight back from this.

    I think there’s proof out there that we can hang w/ the vast majority of the teams we’ll face in the ACC. However, we can’t afford to be anything but focused and prepared every night out…excuse me if I’m now thinking that history will repeat itself in the same manner that it has the last 3 years.

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