Gators come to town

09-10 Basketball111

The Florida Gators come to town for an ‘inflexion’ in the Wolpack’s 2009-2010 season.

To this point in the season, the NC State has tracked slightly ahead of expectations. Today’s game will be particularly significant to the Wolfpack’s season because of the ‘Florida’ name and the major conference in which the Gators play. If Coach Lowe’s Wolfpack is fortunate enough to be discussed for any postseason tournaments when we get to March, today’s game will truly be one of the swing games on our schedule.

Ignoring Florida for a moment, the Pack could effectively hold a 12-3 record before launching into the main part of the ACC schedule with a ‘must win’ when we host very beatable Virginia next Saturday, Jan 9th at noon. If one were to presume wins over Holy Cross on (Jan 6) and North Carolina Central (Jan 30th) then today’s game makes the difference between a solid 13-3 record or a respectable 12-4 that would require six conference wins to get to 18 wins. At the end of the year, 18 wins could be enough to earn an NIT berth; and non-conference wins over both Marquette and Florida could be differentiating factors for the Wolfpack.

This is the type of game that deserves a deeper look at the opponent. There is no reason for us add to all of the hard work already provided here by Backing the Pack.

Between opponents’ low 3FG% and low 3FGA/FGA ratio, Florida’s perimeter D is looking positively Duke-esque. They’ve turned around their interior defense as well. And they’re forcing lots of turnovers while avoiding fouls, which is the defensive ideal everyone should strive for. I wonder about that TO%, though. Their steal and block rates are right in line with last year’s, so the higher TO% could be a function of a slate of crappy, mistake-prone foes. But that’s pure conjecture; obviously, there’s much more to a team’s defensive impact than block and steal rates.

I have a hard time believing their FG% defense is that much better, and if we manage to not throw the ball away willy-nilly, second chance opportunities should be available.

The Pomeroy Predictor says flip a coin.

If we’re flipping a coin in the matter then one can only hope that the home court advantage can make the difference today.

Go Pack!

Post-Script: For some additional fun, please click here to see comments before last season’s match-up with the Gators that focused a lot on former Wolfpack recruit, Dan Werner. Backing the Pack penned the following blurb today:

If I recall correctly, Werner was much more highly regarded than Dennis Horner coming out of high school, but Horner’s going to have the better college career when all is said and done. Not to sell Werner short–he’s been a reliable role player throughout his career. He’s just never been able to take the next step, and he’s shooting a modest 31.9% from beyond the arc in 3+ seasons, which feels disappointing in retrospect.

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09-10 Basketball

111 Responses to Gators come to town

  1. Gene 01/04/2010 at 8:43 AM #

    “the wrong players got to the line.”

    Against Arizona, we put a 96% FT shooter on the line at the end of the game and he missed FT’s. Even the right players aren’t going to be perfect from the FT line all the time.

  2. choppack1 01/04/2010 at 9:39 AM #

    “Sidney played it right. What we didn’t do was hit about two more foul shots. This WAS dumb luck, as much as you’d like to pin it on Sidney. Sidney’s strategy resulted in a two point lead with a free throw pending and 2.6 seconds on the clock. Give me that situation every night and I’m a happy man because most years, I’m going to end up undefeated. We missed a free throw and a guy nailed a 75-footer.”

    What should worry you is that we executed Sidney Lowe’s strategy perfectly…and lost.

    And here’s where I think his strategy was stupid…You are up 3 w/ 10 seconds, the other team has the ball – and you have the following facts at your disposal:
    1) Your team sucks at shooting foul shots.
    2) Your team has defended the 3 well that day.
    3) Your team, which as noted, sucks at shooting fouls shots is still in the “bonus.”
    4) Your opponent shoots foul pretty good, but they are also in the bonus.

    Which strategy do you think plays to your strenghts? One which will force the team to make a contested 3 against a set D to force OT or one which will create a situation where it’s very possible that you will lose the game??

    We’re actually lucky as hell that we didn’t miss the front end of the 1 and 1 and lose when the Gators drove the lane for a score…

  3. Pack Mentality 01/04/2010 at 10:03 AM #

    My 1 problem with the game last night was that approximately between the 15:00 and 10:00 mark of the first half we were playing lights out. I could not believe what I was seeing. We were playing fast paced ball that looked like it could not only keep up with everybody in the ACC but win. We took an 8 point lead and were continuing to build on that and had all the momentum going our way. It literally looked like we could take that momentum and go into halftime with a 20 point lead. But an official timeout was called at about 10:00, and we return WITHOUT TRACY SMITH – who had 0 fouls. He didn’t return until about 6:00 left. We played like crap for that time, and even when he came back in we couldn’t capture that streak that we had going prior to his leaving the game.

    Can someone on here please tell me WTF was going on with that. I couldn’t believe my eyes. I do not think Lowe made coaching mistakes in OT, but I look at that stretch as the game changer. It made a close game out of what could have been a blowout.

  4. Mike 01/04/2010 at 10:22 AM #

    The last 3 games we have started on fire, then cooled off. We have been near 25 pts at 10 minute mark (100 pt pace) each game, then end up going stone cold and ending the half in the high 20’s low 30’s. We need to learn to keep the foot on the gas.

    As for Tracy coming out yesterday at 10 minunte TO as Pack Mentality said – guy needed a break and was winded. Pretty simple to me.

    Fouling at the end was the right plan. So many coaches let teams shoot a 3 when down three, thinking the worst case is a tie. Yet, these players always seem to nail a 3 at the buzzer, which gives them confidence heading into OT. Have seen it so many times and was thrilled to see Sid fouling at the end. THAT my friends is V all the way – V would have done the same thing. We make FT’s, we win.

  5. Pack Mentality 01/04/2010 at 10:27 AM #

    I don’t think he needed a break. At least his play didn’t express that to me, he was scoring lights out and was by far the best player on the court for either team.

  6. packfan03 01/04/2010 at 10:37 AM #

    Sid does seem to have a quick trigger when it comes to subbing. I thought as the season progressed we would see less of this (to a degree we have – less Painter).

    What I think is odd, is that so many are bashing the foul shooting strategy Lowe used in favor of allowing Florida the chance to shoot a 3 at the end of regulation. I’d much rather force them to make a 75 ft. three pointer at the buzzer than a 21 ft. three pointer with an opportunity to get an offensive rebound (albeit with just a few ticks left on the clock).

  7. Pack Mentality 01/04/2010 at 10:39 AM #

    I also thought that Degand shot his 2nd free throw looking like he didn’t care, and maybe even missed on purpose. It barely hit the front of the rim. I can’t fathom a reason to miss it on purpose though. Either way, it was a really crappy free throw since it barely hit the front of the rim.

  8. GoldenChain 01/04/2010 at 10:48 AM #

    The reason you miss on purpose is that with 2.6 secs left the time it takes to grab the rebound, then get it anywhere close to having a decent chance of making a shot are much more than 2.6 secs….normally.
    After all, how many 75′ shots have you ever seen made?

    If you hit the FT then they get a chance at a heave down the court which allows a point blank shot that would be a much higher percentage shot.

    Not saying I agree, just saying that’s the thinking.

  9. packfan03 01/04/2010 at 10:57 AM #

    I know it’s easy to blame strategy in a loss, but I agree with the thought process. The shock and awe displayed by everyone on both benches and the entire arena illustrate that nobody realistically thought the shot would go in.

    I choose to think about it like this: It took Nick Wise approximately 5 seconds to get up and down the court for a layup and the win in Arizona. On that play, the ball was passed in well before half court. Now, had Farnold made the second free throw and made the margin 3 points, Fla. would have a chance to inbound the ball. In 2.6 seconds, Fla. easily could have gotten off a 3 point attempt with a half court pass, another pass to a man on the wing. Granted, that shot would have tied it for a second overtime rather than being a game winning shot and still been a tough one to make – but it still seems much more likely to me than a 75 ft. buzzer beater.

  10. choppack1 01/04/2010 at 11:04 AM #

    “What I think is odd, is that so many are bashing the foul shooting strategy Lowe used in favor of allowing Florida the chance to shoot a 3 at the end of regulation. ”

    What I think is odd is that people forget that we started this strategy at the 10 second mark. Like I said, we’re a lousy foul shooting and by executing this strategy, we not only were giving Florida a chance to the tie the game again in the best case scenario, but we were also giving them a chance to win it, if we didn’t convert BOTH foul shots.

    The first time, we did…the second time we didn’t.

    The fouling strategy only works if a) you make all of your foul shots or b) they miss all of theirs…even if you work this strategy to a tee (and we didn’t…obviously) – the team still gets a chance to tie it on the tap-in.

  11. packfan03 01/04/2010 at 11:12 AM #

    “The fouling strategy only works if a) you make all of your foul shots or b) they miss all of theirs…even if you work this strategy to a tee (and we didn’t…obviously) – the team still gets a chance to tie it on the tap-in.”

    Or…it works if you force them to shoot a 75 ft. jumper to beat you. In that situation, which team would you have preferred to be? The team needing to heave the ball 3/4 of the court, or the team needing a miss in this situation?

    The result made me vommit, but really, what are the odds? In any event, if we are in the same situation again I hope we do the same thing. I wonder if there has ever been a team that has lost more than one game on a 75 ft prayer in the same season…

  12. Pack Mentality 01/04/2010 at 11:13 AM #

    So, did he miss the last free throw on purpose or not?

  13. Rick 01/04/2010 at 11:22 AM #

    But hey we played hard and by the Lee Fowler criteria for rating teams we are therefor a winner.

    Only at NCSU would a basic requirement be considered “improvement”

  14. Clarksa 01/04/2010 at 11:26 AM #

    ^^I believe I read where he was not instructed to miss it on purpose…and I also read where Javi was supposed to go for the steal and not intentionally foul for their last set of foul shots.

    As far as to foul or not to foul in the situation, the only correct answer is whatever you chose to do as the coach, it is only the right decision if you win.

  15. choppack1 01/04/2010 at 11:44 AM #

    “it works if you force them to shoot a 75 ft. jumper to beat you. In that situation, which team would you have preferred to be? The team needing to heave the ball 3/4 of the court, or the team needing a miss in this situation?”

    You are acting like the 75ft shot was the only possible outcome. If you’ve been reading what I wrote, I think the strategy to start fouling them w/ 10 seconds is the mistake here.

    The problem w/ this strategy is that we give Florida 1 chance to tie AND 1 chance to win – instead of just 1 chance to tie. We also created a situation so that on 2 different occassions, we had to make both foul shots to protect our lead…

    Once again, you have to coach the team you have/choose to put on the floor…and one of our biggest weaknesses is foul shooting. Lowe choose a tactic that required our team shoot foul shots well. He choose a tactic which gave Florida a chance to WIN the game instead of just having a chance to TIE it. He chose a strategy which was going to give Florida more chances at tying or winning the game.

    Did I read that he blamed it on our “D” of the last shot???

  16. packfan03 01/04/2010 at 11:50 AM #

    ^^I understand your logic, just disagree. I don’t think that either one of us is going to convince the other of their argument’s shortcomings. We can probably both agree, regardless of strategy, that it was an incredibly lucky shot that knocked the wind out of NCSU fans everywhere. Hopefully we catch a lucky break down the road, as Fla. did yesterday.

  17. choppack1 01/04/2010 at 12:21 PM #

    packfan03 – good point.

    Oh well, as we say at work: “onward”

    Is it me, or have we pretty much cashed that “luck” check for our 83 run??

  18. Wulfpack 01/04/2010 at 12:23 PM #

    If indeed Degand missed the shot on purpose, then I say that’s just plain dumb. It’s simple math. Make both and that way you can’t lose, you can only tie if they make a miraculous shot. Who knows what really happened. But if I hear he was instructed to miss it purposefully, that’s just dumb basketball.

  19. Rick 01/04/2010 at 12:33 PM #

    “Did I read that he blamed it on our “D” of the last shot???”

    He said we should have been in front of the player. He “blamed” the FT shooting.

  20. Pack Mentality 01/04/2010 at 1:20 PM #

    ^Wulfpack – I agree completely. I don’t know if he was instructed to miss the last shot or not, but if he was that pisses me off. Even if FL missed that last shot I would be against that strategy.

  21. WolftownVA81 01/04/2010 at 1:28 PM #

    ^ I didn’t listen to post game comments. However, IMHO, he should have taken responsibility for not having the right players on the court or for not improving our poor FT skills. I hope this blame thing doesn’t play out like last season. Just win coach or take ownership.

  22. choppack1 01/04/2010 at 1:50 PM #

    Wolftown – has Sid ever taken ownership? I mean, this is his 3rd year, I’ve never heard him say, “I shouldn’t have done that.”

    In this case, he should have said, “the players did exactly what I told them to do – if you want to blame someone, blame me.”

  23. WolftownVA81 01/04/2010 at 1:53 PM #

    ^Exactly. That’s my biggest critism of Sid.

  24. Fenrir 01/04/2010 at 2:00 PM #

    How can anyone say that coaching was or isn’t a factor with our basketball team? Being optimistic about your team is one thing but to ignore that State is a poorly coached team is head in the sand material.
    Here is my reasoning…. HALF COURT PRESS…. REBOUNDING…. FREE THROWS…. these are things that well coached teams do regularly!!! After 3 years you would think that we could defeat a half court press. It is embarassing to watch. If Sid and his assistants don’t know how to counter the press i will be glad to go to Raleigh and show them how. I’ve taught 5th and 6th graders. Why cain’t he teach college kids how to defeat the press!!
    This team does nothing well. What in the world do they do at practice? It’s not shooting free throws, or learning to box out, or move to the ball when your man gets double teamed. you know the basics of how the game’s played. COACHING, IT’S THE COACHING!!!!

  25. packfan03 01/04/2010 at 2:24 PM #

    ^^
    1. We out rebounded Florida (including a super clutch put back by Javi to send the game to OT)
    2. We had 14 TO’s, which I don’t consider horrible
    3. We aren’t a good FT shooting team. That is an obvious weakness. We had to get the ball into a guard, and none of our guards are great at the line.

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