As has been noted by many voices in many publications/forums – this has hardly been much of a “challenge” for the ACC. The Big Ten has always lost, and has usually been crushed. Many believe that this year will be different, and we at SFN agree.
Rather than predict each game in standard format, I will instead steal a page from numerous political forecasters and use the following designations – Safe (an upset would be shocking), Likely (upset not expected, but we could see it happening), Lean (predicted winner is a favorite, but not a huge one), and Tossup (anything could happen – who the hell knows).
Game 1: Penn State at Virginia (Monday, 7:00, ESPN2)
Penn State has early, bad home losses to UNC-W and Tulane. Virginia’s early losses (vs. Stanford, at South Florida) are somewhat more respectable. Neither team figures to be great shakes this year, but I’ll go with the home team – especially since Penn State hasn’t played a road game yet.
Verdict: Lean ACC.
Game 2: Wake Forest at Purdue (Tuesday, 7:00, ESPN)
This looked like a possible trap game for the Top Ten-ranked Boilermakers…until Wake Forest got spanked by the College of William and Mary over the weekend. In its first road game of the year, I wouldn’t expect much from the Deacs.
Verdict: Safe Big Ten
Game 3: Maryland at Indiana (Tuesday, 7:30, ESPN2)
Maryland has disappointed early, with neutral court losses to its only two decent opponents (Cincy, Wisconsin). We like Tom Crean alot, and fully expect him to turn Indiana around. But having lost to Boston University and George Mason already, it’s safe to say that the 2009-10 Hoosiers still kind of suck.
Verdict: Likely ACC.
Game 4: Northwestern at NC State (Tuesday, 7:30, ESPNU)
Despite being relegated to “the U,” this is actually one of the more compelling non-marquee matchups. Northwestern has been tagged by many as likely (or at least realistically possibly) to make its FIRST EVER trip to the Big Dance this season. Additionally, the Wildcats are the more tested team coming into Raleigh, posting a 2-1 mark against legitimate foes (wins over Notre Dame and Iowa State, with a loss to Butler). But the Wolfpack hasn’t looked like the expected complete doormat in the early going, and has the home court advantage. Neither team has been scoring many points in the early going, so this might be a closely contested game – but not exactly aesthetically pleasing. Nobody knows for sure whether Northwestern can beat a major conference opponent on the road, or whether NC State’s improved defense can stand up to a more legitimate offense. As such, it must be called a coin flip.
Verdict: Tossup.
Game 5: Michigan State at North Carolina (Tuesday, 9:00, ESPN)
North Carolina has certainly looked rough early on, as many expected due to questionable/inexperienced guard play. To that end, the experienced, guard-heavy Spartans look like a matchup nightmare. But there is also no question that the Holes have serious mojo against Sparty, and who knows what Michigan State’s mindset will be like on Tuesday night. Still, college basketball is a guard’s game, and I don’t expect UNC to begin to turn the corner until mid-to-late January (my advice would be to make Marcus Ginyard the starting and primary PG).
Verdict: Lean Big Ten.
Game 6: Virginia Tech at Iowa (Tuesday, 9:30, ESPN2)
Like Maryland, Virginia Tech returns one of only two upperclassman, dynamic, game-changing guards league-wide. Also like Maryland, the Hokies have disappointed early (bad loss to Temple, needed overtime to dispatch with freaking DELAWARE). But at the end of the day, Iowa is a bad team that lost its best players from last year’s bad team. This does not bode well for the Hawkeyes. They did make a cool 3/4 court shot before the halftime buzzer against Texas, though.
Verdict: Likely ACC.
Game 7: Illinois at Clemson (Wednesday, 7:15, ESPN)
This is a battle between two teams that are usually very well-coached, but lacking in elite talent. Neither team has a bad loss or defining win as of yet (although Clemson did edge Butler), and I give the slight edge to the home Tiggers.
Verdict: Lean ACC.
Game 8: Boston College at Michigan (Wednesday, 7:30, ESPN2)
Michigan has disappointed early, losing to Marquette and Alabama – and falling out of the Top 25 in the process. Still, they look to lick their wounds at home against a Boston College team that has been a walking disaster to date.
Verdict: Safe Big Ten.
Game 9: Minnesota at Miami (Wednesday, 7:15, ESPNU)
Tubby Smith has a gritty, solid Golden Gopher team. Much like NC State, Miami hasn’t played like the expected doormat or really been tested yet. I remain skeptical of the Canes, and give very little credit for their home court “advantage.”
Verdict: Lean Big Ten.
Game 10: Duke at Wisconsin (Wednesday, 9:15, ESPN)
Duke has easily looked like the class of the ACC so far, but is also ripe for a letdown after pasting Arizona State and UConn to win the Pre-Season NIT. History is also on the Devils’ side, having never lost a Challenge game. That said, Wisconsin has already beaten Arizona and Maryland, and will exert significant defensive pressure on Duke’s thin guard rotation. Also remember that said guard rotation relies on heavy minutes from a kid who should be a high school senior. Caveat emptor.
Verdict: Lean ACC.
Game 11: Florida State at Ohio State (Wednesday, 9:30, ESPN2)
Conference pride could come down to the Seminoles on the road. Having graduated Toney Douglas, I would typically be very nervous about this possibility. But the Noles have looked pretty good early, winning the Old Spice Classic this weekend. Non-Douglas players stepped up during last year’s ACCT run, too. Since the Greg Oden class left, the Buckeyes have struggled to find consistency, on both ends of the court.
Verdict: Tossup.
There you have it. According to my rankings, the ACC should be favored to win 5 games (2 “Likely,” 3 “Lean”), and the Big Ten 4 (2 Lean,” 2 “Safe). That leaves 2 swing “Tossup” games, which the Big Ten would have to sweep in order to win, barring any upsets. However, the Big Ten’s 4 predicted wins are “safer” than the ACC’s 5 – meaning that holistically, we are looking at a pure coin flip.
PS: If you are energized by the Wolfpack’s 5-0 start and want more NC State Basketball talk, then this entry from earlier today has taken off.
