ACC Operation Basketball: Pack picked last (by a mile), Dennis Hopper added to staff?

09-10 Basketball College Basketball115

Operation Basketball has been going on this afternoon and it has been very interesting to follow the event via various internet outlets.

For example, NC State bloggers like ourselves have been able to interact with some members of the media via Twitter during the event. It is truly a new world!! You can follow our Twitter feed by clicking here. Also, many Tweeters took advantage of tagging from the event, so you can see all the Tweets that had the #accopbk tag by clicking here.

Early in the day Commissioner Swofford announced that the 2012 ACC Tournament slated for Atlanta will be played in Phillips Arena as opposed to the Georgia Dome. We had it early and added it to a related thread on our message board so that you could get the highest impact of information for your time. Click here.

You can watch the coaches’ interviews for free by clicking here.

It was not a surprise that NC State was selected last in the preseason poll…the big surprise was just how few points the Wolfpack garnered. Hell, I’m surprised they didn’t leave the 12th spot open and rank us 13th.

1, tie, Duke (25) 545
1, tie, UNC (20) 545
3, Clemson 409
4, Georgia Tech (2) 387
5, Maryland 378
6, Wake Forest (1) 315
7, Florida State 314
8, Virginia Tech 273
9, Boston College 251
10, Miami 135
11, Virginia 116
12, N.C. State 76

Again, this isn’t a surprise. The Wolfpack was recently selected #119th in the country by CollegeHoopsNet.com

Additionally, CollegeHoopsnet.com has taken an interesting approach to projecting the season – you can click here to see their “High / Low” for the entire conference. Their view of the Wolfpack is clearly consistent with today’s media poll.

NCSt High-Low

But, in spite of the struggles that the Wolfpack Basketball team projects to have this season, all is not lost. As you can see from the Twitter feed of the ACC office from today’s events, NC State has added the one and only Dennis Hopper to our staff. As ACCSportsJournal.com Tweeted — nobody can wait to see the Wolfpack run the picket fence this year!

Hopper

More from the day:
* Lowe gives lip service to being identified by up tempo and defense. (Link) Defense? Really? Defense? Would love nothing more. Will hold our breath.

* Lowe says State is heading in the right direction. (Link)

* Horner & Degand talk about preseason and uptempo. (Link)

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09-10 Basketball College Basketball

115 Responses to ACC Operation Basketball: Pack picked last (by a mile), Dennis Hopper added to staff?

  1. Dr. BadgerPack 10/26/2009 at 7:17 PM #

    Well BJD- I’ll throw this out… I think everyone knows it’s apparent I want to see what Lowe can do with this crew.

    To play with his class next year, I expect:

    1. Defense
    2. Improved margin on the boards… especially the lackluster defensive rebounding efforts
    3. 17 wins, no “bad” losses (sub 150 RPI teams), 40 minutes of effort
    4. To a lesser extent, the uptempo offense. It’s a must in the first games. If these guards can’t handle it, as many seem to indicate will be the case, I expect him to adjust. (I do think these guards are capable of playing uptempo, for the record).

    If I see these 4 things, even if the 17 wins do not result in an NIT bid (due to the way the selection process is now– 17 would have been nearly a guarantee a few years ago), he should be afforded the opportunity to work with his stud class.

    If not, he should be released. If the recruits have signed binding letters of intent, I expect they not be given a blanket release. In the event that happens, Lee Fowler should be immediately terminated.

  2. theghost 10/26/2009 at 7:19 PM #

    Oh, and to your question –

    “What school would retain a coach who finished 10th (NIT), 12th (no postseason), 10th (no postseason), 10th-12th (no postseason)?”

    Answer is duke. Krzyzewski was 9-17 in his 5th yr at Army when hired. 1st 3 years: 6-8 (NIT), 4-10 (no postseason), 3-11 (no postseason). Those of you who can evaluate a coach on a 3-year W-L record alone, complete the following sentence: If I had been the AD, I (would/would not) have fired K after his 3rd season because…

  3. Alpha Wolf 10/26/2009 at 7:32 PM #

    You know a coach is in trouble when people start talking about Mike Krzyzewski’s early record.

    It’s the discussion board equivalent of throwing all-in when your playing Texas Hold ‘Em.

    The reply is easy enough: Bob Wade. Steve Robinson. Dave Leitao. Among others.

    Truth is, Coach K is a statistical outlier as is Dean Smith in terms of their programs improving after horrible starts. In Smith’s case, the bad start can be attributed more to the aftermath of the 1961 point shaving scandal that ended the Dixie Classic. Usually, when a coach has a stillborn program after 3-5 years it never gets better.

    Lowe is now reaching the point where he absolutely must prove himself. This year has to see a real change in the right direction, or the next year he will either have to do or the chorus of calls for his job will reach past what we heard for Sendek in years 9 and 10.

  4. VaWolf82 10/26/2009 at 7:47 PM #

    I would say that he’s bad WHEN he doesn’t have a PG – just as anybody else would be.

    So riddle me this:

    Who is responsible for obtaining a good PG?
    How often should State fans expect to have a good PG?
    Are State fans supposed to ignore those seasons without a good PG?

  5. Wulfpack 10/26/2009 at 7:51 PM #

    “– other than the 3-year W-L record, what is it about Lowe’s coaching that you think is bad?”

    Just curious, why is his W-L record out of bounds? Isn’t it entirely descriptive of what has happened here? Isn’t that the “standard” that has been established, and that which all (well…most) coaches are judged by? It’s pretty simple. You play hard and you play well, you win. You don’t, you lose. We’ve lost…a lot.

    Above all else, I do not find Lowe to be a motivator. I’ve seen our team lie down and die time after time at the sight of any sort of adversity. I’ve found our players to be lazy. I’ve found our defense to be atrocious, and our ball movement very pedestrian. We don’t shoot well. We don’t rebound well. We don’t do anything well.

    If you want to blame this on his personnel, have at it. But after a while if it looks like a horse, and it smells like a horse, well then it is a horse. At some point the “personnel” excuse defeats your argument because the personnel is finally his own.

  6. BJD95 10/26/2009 at 7:53 PM #

    Ghost also neglected to mention K’s Year Four record. Which is all I’m saying – no free pass for this year. Put up or shut up.

    I like Badger’s point about defense. That’s the evaluation that bothers me the most. Lowe’s teams have consiststently played horrid defense. Effort and positioning can make almost anyone an adequate defender at the college level. Yet no returning player has been so much as adequate.

  7. JeremyH 10/26/2009 at 7:56 PM #

    listen. whatever it is you fellows are arguing about, I’m sure it can be resolved.

    : ]

  8. BJD95 10/26/2009 at 8:12 PM #

    Let’s also analyze the whole “improvement” thing. I’m not opposed to the mulligan year. In February of Year Two, I did so for Lowe. But the standard for getting the program back on track is not marginal improvement over the written off disaster year. It means significant progress – that is, a reasonable projection two years out from the end of Year One. I assure you that I have the same standards for football – if we go 4-8 this year, I won’t talk about improvement if Year Four brings a 5-7 mark. I will expect 8 wins for the program to be back on track. And I needed to see AT LEAST “solid/high NIT” last year from basketball, and we missed that by a long shot.

    Plus, you can see how the extremely soft definition of improvement works. Notice how the vocal defenders don’t talk of ANY improvement this year. Lowe and Fowler have started the spin already – less shitty in March than in December should count (even if we do finish DFL). And guess what they’ll talk about in Year Five if we finish 8th or 9th? You guessed it – improvement!

    It’s a never-ending cycle of rationalization.

  9. Dr. BadgerPack 10/26/2009 at 8:17 PM #

    BJD- I’ll go a step further on the defense. At times, the defense has actually been good at forcing a tough shot. A huge problem lies in my second point, which is directly linked to the first. If you play good defense, but give up the offensive board and leave an easy 3 footer or a wide open kickout for 3, you’re screwed. The first two of those points are inextricably linked to one another.

    My biggest defensive (purely defensive) problem has been the at times excruciatingly bad play in switching off ball screens. The hope is that increased all-around athleticism (and height), depth and as Lowe says “good basketball IQ” will help there. But this screen-o-phobia needs to be addressed, and consistently.

  10. theghost 10/26/2009 at 8:37 PM #

    Well, now we’re getting somewhere – all I’m trying to do is get past the pointless “unreasonable expectations vs. excuses and WTNY” argument and get to informed basketball analysis. Wulfpack – agreed – record matters, I only point out that record ALONE is insufficient over 3 years, or put another way, if you understand basketball, you can explain WHY you’re losing. “Excuses!”, etc. isn’t analysis. Defense, lack of motivation, rebounding, shot selection (not just shooting) – that’s analysis – if that’s true and it persists, that’s indicative of a coaching deficiency, and I’ll agree with you 100%.

    VAWolf – of course the coach is responsible for recruiting. But some people on here talk about recruiting like it’s a video game – hold down A and B and use two of your magic stars, and you’ll land a top 5 guard, and I don’t believe it’s that easy in Raleigh anymore. You and I know what the T. stands for in J. T. Valvano, and we remember Spud Webb’s real first name. 17-year-olds don’t. They associate about 30 other teams with good basketball before NC State. That’s disgusting. An absolute dereliction of duty on the part of every AD, chancellor, and trustee for the past 20 years. But Lowe hasn’t been here 20 years, and you can’t fix it by turning the game off and starting it over. That said – it’s not easy, but he’s got to find a way to do it anyway. I’d like to have seen more progress by now. But you can’t say he’s ignoring the problem, and you can’t say recruiting isn’t improving.

    I’m with Badger too – comes down to improvement – on PG play, defense, effort, other things you guys have mentioned.

    Anyway, sorry for being late to the game, thanks all for educating me a little more. I know what to look for when I’m able to catch a game or two this year.

    Alpha – I like the Dixie Classic reference – what would it take to revive the Dixie Classic – in Reynolds?

  11. MatSci94 10/26/2009 at 9:13 PM #

    “If I had been the AD, I (would/would not) have fired K after his 3rd season because…”

    On the Coach K bit, certainly not every coach with a miserable first 3 years turns into a multiple National Champ coach, since that isn’t the case I’m not sure what the point of the comparison is.

    I wasn’t old enough to really follow Duke bball at the time (other than I remember they had been pretty bad for a long time), so I’m not sure what people saw in the program. *I* would look for things like improved energy, hustle, defense, offense, team chemistry, handling pressure situations, smart plays and things like that. I can’t speak for “most people” but for me, I am willing to look past W-L numbers if some of these other areas were there. I think we saw this in year one. Since then?

    To loose two entire seasons because “some players were selfish” or “didn’t get along?” I would much rather have said players benched until they get their heads straight. Defensive intensity? Rebounding? Poise? Substitutions that seem to make sense (even if they don’t at the time). Mays hits a game winning shot, doesn’t play at all for a week, then suddenly plays all of an ACCT game? He said himself that he had no idea when he would go in, or that he would play that much? All of these things are *my* questions about Coach Lowe’s ability. None of these have anything to do with the talent level of the players. This would be a much different situation if the fundamentals were there and the next class was supposed to be stellar. As it is, the year we had the best recruit, we were terrible.

  12. Rufftown Wolf 10/26/2009 at 9:24 PM #

    Go Pack!!

  13. dwm77 10/26/2009 at 10:27 PM #

    Obviously nobody “knows” what will happen this year. If they did we could go ahead and make the appropriate coaching decisions. I also believe anyone who speaks for the level of talent on the team this year is only projecting. Not a single member of this team was a full time starter last year, so who can say whether their increased roles will be more or less productive than the crew which left us. Not to mention the Freshmen, who may or not be better than advertised.

    Fact is, there are alot of unknowns on this team. So instead of “WTNY” or “Lowe needs to go”, let’s wait til we see a game or 3 or 7 before we pass judgement. The press is doing us no favors with their projections but they have no more insight than any of us in the rankings. They look at rosters, team names and make a vote. Hell I’m not sold at all that UNx and Duke are as good as advertised. They are relying on alot of unprovens as well.

    Until we “see” what happens on the court, let’s try and be positive, support the team and meltdown only when/if warranted, not by what Tysiac, Giglio think. The season is not in the crapper yet folks, let’s give it a chance.

  14. tjfoose2 10/27/2009 at 3:08 AM #

    I don’t think we’ll finish last either, but…

    Think about this. If back in August, you had to pick in which sport was the Wolfpack more likely to finish last in the ACC, basketball or football, which would you have chosen?

  15. Dr. BadgerPack 10/27/2009 at 3:11 AM #

    Ehh… UNC, don’t know… Duke is probably going to be good. BUT (yes, big but), they are a guard injury away from trouble. They may be running the point forward offense (ala Grant Hill) at some point with Singler if someone goes down.

    I’m excited to see what our more athletic team can do. No one can dispute that quality of the team. Now, if it sucks– and you all know me– i’ll be ticked in a hurry; but I think we will be presently surprised.

    If not… I’ll get started on the baseball preview early.

  16. packplantpath 10/27/2009 at 7:31 AM #

    “If I had been the AD, I (would/would not) have fired K after his 3rd season because…”

    Looking at his first 3 years, if the supposition is correct that the first 3 years are significant predictors of success, he should have been fired. As pointed out, his success could be an outlier or a fat tailed event.

    Think about it this way. There are how many division 1 coaches past and present? Lots and lots. Because of that, you could select any extreme category you please, and find some coach, at some point in the past, to fit your criteria. This is a common error people make in many different fields. Just because something is a very rare event, the 5-sigma event in statistics, does not make it impossible and to point out the rare event as a standard of comparison is invalid.

    I would love to see a list of coaches records after 3 years and records over the next 7 years. It would be truly interesting to test this.

  17. zahadum 10/27/2009 at 8:33 AM #

    As far as what can be discerned from one scrimmage, remember the Red/White game in last spring’s football practice? Remember how many on here were worried that our defense would be so much better than our offense? How’d that work out for us?

    My prediction for this team is they will be utterly unpredictable. Also think the 12-20 game at WF could be key. If they get torched in that game, it could totally crush whatever fragile confidence they have. In other words, for this season to amount to anything, they have to start off better than expected, don’t see a 2nd half surge in the works.

  18. tvp1 10/27/2009 at 10:57 AM #

    The “This is Lowe’s First Year” crowd cannot have it both ways. If Fells, Costner, and McCauley were lazy/poor fits/not that good/cancers, then the loss of those players, and addition of more of Lowe’s guys, means we should only improve. 6-10 should be the floor, not the ceiling. Particularly if the ACC is “down” like everyone suggests.

    In fact, if you look at the end of last season (we went 4-4 down the stretch in ACC play), for the most part we were not relying on the departed 3 to carry us. Smith, Javy, Horner, CJ, even Degand at times stepped up. So according to that logic, we should only get better this year.

    Now, if you think (like I do) that in fact we’ve lost talent from last year and will be worse, then that analysis doesn’t apply. It does call into question why Sidney’s team in year 4 is no better than when he got here.

  19. Classof89 10/27/2009 at 11:25 AM #

    [quote]Alpha – I like the Dixie Classic reference – what would it take to revive the Dixie Classic – in Reynolds?[/quote]

    It would take a multi-year television contract with ESPN. The “Worldwide Leader” really determines which preseason tourneys like this thrive and which fall by the wayside, because they can pressure big name schools into coming.

    Look, as for the Lowe question–here’s the thing: I am certainly on the side of those who have doubts as to whether he will ever has what it takes to be successful (and I’m particularly disturbed by the intimations involving the staff’s work ethic–even if you are terrible at what you do, a person of any ability level can still work hard…)

    But what good does it do to fire Lowe after this season if Lee Fowler is still running the athletics department? Does anyone have the slightest shread of confidence that Fowler–he of the “I know basketball” comment–would do any better running a major coaching search this time around?

    Given that we have ZERO chance of hiring anyone better as long as Fowler is involved, why go through a coaching transition after this year, and then waste five more years while the new guy also fails?

  20. tvp1 10/27/2009 at 11:57 AM #

    Classof89: That’s my position on Lowe exactly. Fowler must be removed first before we even think of making a change.

  21. WolftownVA81 10/27/2009 at 12:57 PM #

    ^^Ditto. I’m sorry to have openned this can of worms to assist one person’s understanding. LF should be canned now so we are positioned to act no matter how the season turns out. We need the insurance in case it doesn’t. I don’t believe we can survive another coaching search fiasco. Fans will simply turn their backs on the program. Are you hearing this Mr. Interim Chancellor? Read – serious drop in attendance and donations.

  22. nycfan 10/27/2009 at 1:13 PM #

    The more I think about it, so long as Lowe gets an LOI from Harrow and Brown (and double down on this thinking if he lands CJL), then I think no matter what the outcome this year, State is better off keeping Lowe for the following reasons (even if you somehow knew he would fail to deliver an NCAAT team next season):

    (1) If you keep him and he tanks with the infusion of talent, you have a better story to tell potential replacemetns in terms of giving Lowe the chance to win with his guys.

    (2) You will have more talent in the stable to lure a replacement. Harrow and Brown will be on campus and invested in State and give a good coach something precious to work with — strong guard play. That is how coaches quickly succeed in a turn-around.

    (3) Lowe may well succeed, deliver an NCAAT team or more and turn the proverbial corner.

    While I find framing this season with a WTNY mentality discouraging in terms of the long term prospects of Lowe’s tenure, I nonetheless have come to the conclusion that State is where it is and nothing good can come from firing Lowe at the end of this season for almost any reason. You’ve waited 20+ years, what is one more (as cruel as it sounds)?

    This season, you should look for the improvements in player fundamentals, team management and whether the long-promised running offense is actually installed. Establishing those things will be key to having a reasonably well-oiled machine to turn over to the two stud guards. If you are rebooting again next year, you could swallow the recruits whole in a vortex of an entire squad learning a new system.

    Then next year is an unquestioned referrendum on Lowe’s coaching ability. That would have to be an NCAA Tournament team, not a bubble team, IMO — that would be the bright line test, with everything else (ACC Tournament and NCAA Tournament finishes) subject to the whims of fate and reliance on freshmen guards.

    [FTR, I don’t think this is like the Sendek moment of truth after his fifth season when the team tanked and State blinked. Sendek had his opportunities and he demonstrated his limitations. But he had rebuilt the talent level at State and it was ripe for a take-over by a coach with a higher ceiling.]

  23. Shadow722 10/27/2009 at 2:24 PM #

    Reading the posts here I find a startling combination of both over-exuberance and over-negative frustration. Like him or not, Sidney Lowe is the coach of NCSU this year, and nothing we can do or say will change that, this year. This is not OZ, and we cannot just click our heels three times, and poof, (insert the name of a new coach, any coach), and magically have a winning season.

    I surely do not know if the Pack will go 0-30 this year, anymore than I could know they will go 30-0. The season has not started yet. Calling for Sidney’s head for failure, in year 4, before year 4 has even started, it not only a symptom of frustration, it is a symptom of utter helplessness.

    Is Lowe a good coach? Probability not. He has done very little with what he had; but rationally he had very little to begin with. Nobody who has watched the Pack play can say with any conviction, that McCauley, Costner, and Fells gave Lowe 100% effort. And if Lowe had benched them, and we still lost; how many here would say ” how the hell can Lowe bench his three “best” players. Off with his head!”?

    So now we are about to find out in a few short weeks, whether addition by subtraction, is true or untrue. I’m not saying WTNY, but I am saying let’s see this year play out. If Sid falls on his ass THIS YEAR (and we will know by January), then he fails, and should be shown the nearest exit, no matter whom he has recruited.

    If on the other hand, the freshman (Davis, Howell, Painter, Wood and Vandenburg) can contribute anything near their future potential, and if the veterans (Javi, Mays, Williams, Thomas, Degand, Smith, and Horner) show any improvement at all; then a record that exceeds last year’s dismal showing IS a sign of improvement. And any improvement over last year record will at least show that Lowe can at least deliver something with some new tools on his belt.

    And if Lowe can’t deliver some modest improvement, THIS YEAR, with this new pack of players, HIS PLAYERS, it is unlikely that even given Harrow, Brown and a player to be named later, that he will EVER turn it around: then, and only then, should we yell and scream, and pound on the floor, and say that NCSU cut the bleeding, and find a new coach, who may find a winning formula.

    And if any think an improvement over 6-10 in the ACC is setting the bar too low; please consider that we are picked to finish last….So a 7-9 finish in the ACC would not only be a major triumph, it would be a bloody miracle.

    Regards,

    Bob

  24. Alpha Wolf 10/27/2009 at 3:42 PM #

    “Alpha – I like the Dixie Classic reference – what would it take to revive the Dixie Classic – in Reynolds?”

    An Act of Jesus, I’m afraid.

    First of all, there is no leadership in place at NC State to make it happen, and even if there were, the competition with other “pre-season” tournaments would make it an uphill climb for a New Dixie Classic to attain the level of prominence it once had. Secondly, Reynolds is too small – the tourney would have to be in the RBC Center.

    As much as I would love to see it happen, I just can’t imagine the pieces falling into place for it to come to pass. It would take one helluva dedicated leader, and how long has it been since NC State had one of those in any major capacity?

  25. bradleyb123 10/27/2009 at 4:12 PM #

    nycfan, your most recent post is almost identical to one of my earlier posts a couple of pages back. Only I think you probably worded it better than I did. 🙂

    I’m glad someone else agrees that unloading Sidney after the 2009-10 season would be a mistake. There are plenty of reasons for keeping him one more season after this season that go beyond what he is doing as a coach. With the 2010 recruits, we’re going to be right STOCKED! And that will help us get a new coach if and when we decide it’s time to do so. What’s one more year when we might just be this close to turning the corner? Especially when you consider the recruiting disaster that could happen if we dump Sid after this season. We’d have a new coach a year early, which is what some of us want. But how many years would we have to wait for him to get these kinds of recruits in here?

    Keeping Sidney one extra year (through the end of the 2010-11 season) means ONE MORE YEAR of waiting. Dumping Sidney at the end of the 2009-10 season could result in several more rebuilding years for the new coach. I’m thinking it’s better to take our chances with Sidney for one more year and see what happens.

    For me, Sid gets a pass this year, and ONLY this year. Next year, he HAS to produce or he’s gone, IMO.

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