Cheap Seats Football Retrospective: Part IV, 2007-Present

1999 NC State Football Helmet

A nerve-racking goal-line stand preserved the 31-27 victory on November 10, 2007

This is Part IV of a five-part series that is by no means intended to be authoritative. Rather, it’s nothing more than an incomplete, inconclusive, sometimes erroneous, while always biased retrospective of recent State football history. Part of this was based on nothing more than my attempt to answer the question so many of us are left asking year after year: How did we get here?

Part I: The 90s
Part II: Chuck
Part III: 17

Part IV: TOB
2000 HelmetChuck Amato deserves much of the credit for the current state of Carter-Finley, the renewed pride and excitement for football, and for fueling our aspirations of national prominence. The latter actually proved to be his eventual downfall: by raising our expectations he built a monster that he couldn’t control. Once it was clear he was vastly incapable of delivering on his far-reaching rhetoric, he began a systematic alienation of his fan base and, apparently, the Big Money. He’d always been a talker, but by 2006 he was no longer able to talk his way into extending his welcome.

It was painfully evident that what we needed after the 2006 season was a steady presence, a proven success, to redirect the sputtering program.

Uncommon for Lee Fowler, Tom O’Brien’s hiring was quick, smooth and definitive. He arrived at State with little fanfare (largely due to the simultaneous hiring of Nick Saban by Alabama), although his hiring did generate an appropriately quiet buzz nationally – most pundits agreed that he was an excellent hire for a program that needed, above all, stability. He proved a refreshing presence with his steady, focused approach to both coaching and relating to the monster that is the N.C. State fan base (especially LRM). He showed an immediate panache for fitting in, which around these parts is sometimes as simple as doing a Bojangle’s commercial.

The irony with O’Brien is that in 2009, he seems, if not the perfect fit, at least a most excellent fit; but back in 2000 that wouldn’t have been the case. Without the initial surge under Amato and then the subsequent freefall after Philip left, most of us would hardly appreciate the fact that O’Brien was a steal. Back in 2000, we needed a coach with Amato’s outward passion – O’Brien simply lacks that inherent swagger, tending instead towards silent bravado – but in 2009, O’Brien seems (at least so far) to be exactly the leader we need to build a solid foundation and then focus on long-term prominence, which is something that has escaped the State fan for generations.

A legacy of George Welsh (regarded by most as the model of winning consistency in college football), O’Brien came to State after establishing his own staple consistency. In 1996, he took over a Boston College program that was mired in scandal and within two years shaped it into a perennial eight-game winner, winning nine games during four of his final five seasons in Chestnut Hill. For perspective: State has only four nine-win seasons over the past twenty years, two of which were under Dick Sheridan in 1991 & 1992 (the others were 1994, under O’Cain; and 2002, under Amato). He spent 10 years at Boston College and led the Eagles to eight consecutive bowl games, winning each of the final six.

O’Brien proved successful at Boston College despite a morosely apathetic fan base and facilities far inferior to those in Raleigh even before the current renovations. He’d coached in Raleigh as an assistant at Virginia, but his only trip to Carter-Finley as head coach of Boston College was in October 2006 – an aside: if Daniel Evans hadn’t thrown that Hail Mary that night, we would have all been spared a lot of heartburn from three years of the Anti-Philip — but even in that losing effort, he was left impressed with State fans’ enthusiasm. He announced during his initial press conference after being hired that he had decided that night if he ever left Boston College, it was “N.C. State or bust.”

Now, I’m certainly not an O’Brien biographer, but by all indications, his reputation for consistency is borne of pragmatism. Not dissimilar to when he went to Boston College, he came to State with the implicit understanding that the short-term would be difficult. Beyond the obvious issues in 2006 – poor discipline, which had led to excessive, unnecessary penalties; poor execution, which had led to excessive turnovers; and poor attitudes, which had resulted in erratic, uninspiring play – he inherited a mess of a program. Beyond the staggering lack of fundamentals needed for success, injuries and depth issues were epidemic. Moreover, he would have to rebuild a paper-thin offensive line while simultaneously developing a new offensive system, all without even a remotely serviceable quarterback.

He lost his coaching debut to Central Florida 25-23 (at home), and his comments after the game indicated a certain delight in the fact his team had lost: it would reinforce his point that this group would buy into his system and his philosophy; otherwise they’d suffer the indignity of losing. It took a 1-5 start for the message to apparently get across, but over the final six games, State was 4-2, largely because the offense reduced its turnovers by half and Nate Irving emerged as an overwhelming presence on defense. After an uninspired performance in a season-ending home loss to Maryland, O’Brien’s first team finished 5-7. The theme that first season wasn’t much different than the previous two decades: we lost a game we shouldn’t have lost (Central Florida) and won a game we shouldn’t have won (at Miami); however, the glaring exception was the gut-wrenching November 10 goal-line stand in the final seconds to secure the 31-27 victory over Carolina in Raleigh.

The realists among us tempered our expectations for 2008. The options at quarterback were Daniel “Pick Six” Evans and Harrison “Just Heave It” Beck, and then some relative-unknown named Russell Wilson. Going into the season opener in Columbia, O’Brien named Wilson the starter; the announcement seemed to draw neither praise nor condemnation, simply because in the five seasons Anno Philip, we’d been conditioned to expect very little from the position. After two decades of, at the very least, serviceable quarterbacks, Davis, Stone, Evans, Beck and Burke had all been washouts. The problems were decision-making and accuracy: this quintet combined for a total of only 54 touchdowns with 82 interceptions from 2004-2008. The single-worst combined performance was in the loss at home against Clemson in 2007 (also known as the day Carter-Finley ran out of water), when Evans, Beck and Burke each somehow managed to throw an interception (I’ll stand firm that this has to be a record among BCS teams).

So I’ll admit, last August I wasn’t exactly high on Wilson, but he was a better option than Evans or Beck, which wasn’t really saying much.

And in that ESPN Thursday Night opener against the Gamecocks, he was hardly impressive. Before he was knocked out of the game with a concussion, he was a mere one-of-five for 12 yards passing. More damning for O’Brien was the second consecutive shutout – and blowout – loss: the 2007 season had ended with a 37-0 loss to Maryland in Raleigh and then the 2008 season began with a 34-0 loss at South Carolina. The following week, State defeated William & Mary in a game closer than it should’ve been. Then the next week at Death Valley, we failed to score an offensive touchdown for the third consecutive game against a Division I-A opponent in a 27-9 loss to Clemson; Wilson was again unimpressive, with an interception and only 10-of-21 passing. The realistic and reasonable – nay, rational – among us were delaying our hopes for any sustained success until O’Brien could get some experience on the line to protect the Glennon kid in a couple years. But as September grinded past, some of us weren’t sure we were ready to give O’Brien the time we all knew he realistically needed.

When East Carolina came to Raleigh on September 20, State completed one part of the recurring theme with a fourth-quarter rally for a 30-24 overtime win – we won a game we shouldn’t have won. Wilson’s legacy began with a three-touchdown performance on 21-of-31 passing for 210 yards, and his freshman campaign ended after he threw 17 consecutive touchdowns without an interception the rest of the season. By the Thanksgiving weekend regular season finale against Miami, we were firmly entrenched in a love affair of Wilson’s arm, mobility and decision-making, which spurred his improbable run to both the ACC Rookie of the Year and First Team All ACC.

On Wilson’s back, State rattled off four consecutive wins against Duke, Wake, Carolina, and then Miami to salvage a 6-6 record and slip into the Papajohns.com Bowl in Birmingham as the ACC’s tenth bowl team. Even though State collapsed – sans Wilson – in the second half of that game, leaving O’Brien with a losing record of 6-7 on the season, he finally broke the trend of the past two decades by not losing any games we shouldn’t have lost and winning a game – or in this case, two – we probably shouldn’t have won (at Carolina, Wake). Now, it’s no doubt arguable we lost games we had a chance to win (Boston College, Florida State, Maryland, Rutgers), but none of these were games we went into as the favorite. But most importantly, O’Brien moved to 2-0 against Butch Davis and Carolina after a 41-10 rout in Chapel Hill on November 22, which turned out to be just another game for us.

If the two stick around, O’Brien will forever be compared to his rival, Butch Davis. It’s an argument I’m neither prepared to make nor defend this early in their tenures, but early returns suggest that while Davis will probably always out-recruit O’Brien, and probably win some games against State simply because of the talent-level, O’Brien will usually out-coach Davis, and win some games against Carolina he shouldn’t, just like in 2008.

Now, I’m not quite ready to anoint O’Brien as The One (let’s start with a winning season first), but as long as he keeps beating Carolina, I’ll certainly leave that option open.

About LRM

Charter member of the Lunatic Fringe and a fan, loyal to a fault.

Fans Flashback NCS Football Tom O'Brien

67 Responses to Cheap Seats Football Retrospective: Part IV, 2007-Present

  1. cooldrip 08/05/2009 at 3:00 PM #

    Have to agree with PackMan97. They both take risks in their own way because of the special talents they have. I remember PR against Duke with that free-play 80 yd TD to JCo; most QB’s, even great ones, never see that play. Much like some of RW’s runs last year; most players just don’t see the field well enough to make some of those runs. Phillips’ risks sometimes resulted in a TO; Russell’s sometimes resulted in an injury. But neither can really be called conservative, or “caretakers”; they both just know where their respective talents lie, and when and how to use them.

  2. tjfoose1 08/05/2009 at 3:18 PM #

    Referring to the 2007, you stated “…largely because the offense reduced its turnovers by half and Nate Irving emerged as an overwhelming presence on defense.”

    I don’t think that is correct. Though he had shown flashes of his potential in ’07, he did not become “overwhelming” until last year. In fact, if I remember correctly, he only got spot duty in 2007, starting just a few games (2-3, I think).

    LRM Note: He played in every game and started each of the final four. He caused two fumbles and half his tackles were during this stretch (27 of 56), and he had 10 tackles against Miami. Pretty impressive to me, anyway.

    He had some big time hits his first year, and I remember thinking at the time he made a lot of plays for the limited time he was on the field.

    So for those who knew what to look for, his success in ’08 was not a surprise, but he did not become the ‘stud’ LB he is until last year.

    Regarding the TOB hire, it was my understanding that he basically fell into Fowler’s lap. I had heard that TOB contacted NCSU about the job, not visa versa. Is this not correct?

  3. VaWolf82 08/05/2009 at 3:42 PM #

    But TOB has held his own so far, except for one year I think.

    What are you basing this on? (It’s definitely not the scout.com database.)

    TOB’s recruiting class rankings are probably hurt a little by the fact that he evaluates players regardless of their star-rankings and sometimes recruits them anyway. He doesn’t care so much about their rankings. So even when Butch has a higher ranked recruiting class, he doesn’t necessarily have the better recruits. But on paper, he does.

    I don’t understand what you are trying to say here. BD recruited the players that won a NC for Coker. I think he knows how to evaluate talent without looking at scout/rivals.

    LRM Note: For the record, I don’t follow recruiting at all and I’ve never been to Scout or any of the other sites. I think far too much emphasis is put on recruiting and not enough on a coach’s ability to develop his program. I do, however, have an interest in the perception by the fans and media of what constitutes a good recruiter.

  4. rtpack24 08/05/2009 at 3:58 PM #

    The school contacted a consultant in regards to football search. TOB’s people contacted the consultant. Thankfully Fowler was not even given the opportunity to “Fowl up” the hire.

    LRM Note: That’s what I’ve always heard and based on Fowler’s record, it’s as good as Gospel. I’ll go to my grave blaming Fowler for Rick Barnes not being here today and nothing anyone would can ever say will change that.

  5. GAWolf 08/05/2009 at 4:08 PM #

    Only 9 of the list below from Wikipedia of 29 notable players who played for Davis at Miami or were recruited to Miami are from somewhere other than South Florida. Wouldn’t it go to figure that recruiting those kids to Miami out of Miami’s back yard would be much easier than what most coaches have going on… especially back then before recruiting was such a huge business as it is now. I’m not saying the pressures of other schools poaching in on south Florida didn’t exist at that time, but I would just make the educational guess that it was nothing like it is today with all of the recruiting services and the wide-spread acceptance that the area is a hotbed of talent. Heck. That could at least partly be the product of Butch’s Miami teams that showcased so much local talent! I just don’t think you’re going to see him have that same level of success at UNC… EVER.

    You could take the entire number of superstar NFL players to ever come out of a five county area surrounding Raleigh/Chapel Hill through eternity and I don’t think it would come close to this list of guys just from South Florida/Miami area that went to just Miami just during Davis’ tenure there.

    It’s just misleading, I think, to dub him the king of all things recruiting when he was sitting on a gold mine of talent with very little outside competition. As word got out of what was going on in South Florida, more schools have started poaching the area. And truthfully, their “leftovers” many years are better than our best talent coming out of the entire state of NC. Like it or not, that’s the truth of the matter.

    I didn’t pull the roster from Coker’s national championship with Butch’s players, but would it be safe to guess that roster was at least 70% south Florida kids? 50%? No clue. I might not put my life on it, but I might bet yours.

    From Wikipedia:

    The following players were coached or recruited by Davis in his stint at Miami: Ray Lewis (LB), Yatil Green (WR), Kenard Lang (DE), Kenny Holmes (DE), Duane Starks (CB), Edgerrin James (RB), Bubba Franks (TE), Dan Morgan (LB), Damione Lewis (DT), Santana Moss (WR), Reggie Wayne (WR), Bryant McKinnie (OT), Jeremy Shockey (TE), Phillip Buchanon (CB), Ed Reed (S), Mike Rumph (CB), Andre Johnson (WR), Jerome McDougle (DE), Willis McGahee (RB), William Joseph (DT), Sean Taylor (S), Kellen Winslow II (TE), Jonathan Vilma (LB), D.J. Williams (LB), Vernon Carey (OT), Vince Wilfork (DT), Antrel Rolle (CB), and Kelly Jennings (CB)[2]. Moreover, Davis’ smaller-than-usual recruiting classes are widely considered to have laid the foundation for Miami’s undefeated national championship team of 2001 (under Davis’ former offensive coordinator, Larry Coker), since many of his recruits were forced to play right away.

  6. bradleyb123 08/05/2009 at 4:09 PM #

    VaWolf, I thought I read that somewhere. Since you asked, I went to Rivals.com and did some digging…

    I’m not sure how much weight 2007 carries, since that was their first years at their respective schools. If you count 2007, then Butch has won 2 out of the 3 recruiting battles. If you don’t count 2007, then the score is even at one apiece. State is leading Carolina in 2010 recruiting (so far).

    I was wrong about the one year comment. But I’d hardly call that domination by Butch. I’d say TOB has held his own quite well against Butch. If Butch is some kind of master recruiter, then what does that make TOB?

    “I don’t understand what you are trying to say here. BD recruited the players that won a NC for Coker. I think he knows how to evaluate talent without looking at scout/rivals.”

    Hey look, I’m not totally discounting Butch. He is a great recruiter. (Not discounting what he did at Miami, but how hard was it to recruit to Miami back in the day?) TOB is holding his own against him, too.

    I really just questioned the comment that Butch will “always” out-recruit TOB. He hasn’t so far.

  7. VaWolf82 08/05/2009 at 4:20 PM #

    I really just questioned the comment that Butch will “always” out-recruit TOB. He hasn’t so far.

    Yes he has. BD had a far better class last year. The year before, scout rated State’s class 28th and UNC’s 29th…essentially a tie. The story gets even worse if you include the 2007 class.

    So when you look at the last 3 years and throw in the history at their previous schools, it isn’t a stretch to think that BD will continue recruiting well…and probably better than TOB. This speculation doesn’t have any effect on the future, but then neither does your blind optimism.

    I’m completely happy with TOB and have no concerns over his recruiting or game-day coaching ability. It just looks like alot of State fans try to lift TOB up, by dragging BD down. Just give the devil his due…and keep the focus on the scoreboard.

    LRM Note: Just to clarify (which I obviously didn’t do well in the column), My statement about Davis out-recruiting TOB wasn’t meant to infer TOB won’t recruit well, but from what I’ve seen from both, Davis has a rock-star quality that TOB will never have. The second part of the statement, however, was absolutely meant to infer that TOB is the better coach, which to me is far more important than being a great recruiter.

  8. VaWolf82 08/05/2009 at 4:21 PM #

    I think, to dub him the king of all things recruiting when he was sitting on a gold mine of talent with very little outside competition.

    You only have to look at UNC’s record during the Bunting years and look at BD’s recruiting over the last 3 years at UNC to conclude that BD is one hell of a recruiter. That doesn’t necessarily make him “king”…but he is damn good.

  9. tjfoose1 08/05/2009 at 4:26 PM #

    Thanks for the clarification rtpack24.

  10. GAWolf 08/05/2009 at 4:30 PM #

    He’s certainly good. No one with any sense can argue that point. And I wouldn’t say that TOB has necessarily out-recruited him. I will say that TOB had some serious holes to fill at some not-so-flashy positions and it appears as though he’s done a great job at that. Amato’s classes were often ranked high but yet they didn’t address the glaring needs of the program. Only because I fell victim to the star hype machine myself, do I refuse to put too much weight on Rivals and Scout rankings. And further, you’re just not going to see loads of offensive linemen, for instance, with 5 star rankings. How many have we had? Two? The Waffle (a total flop) and now Crisp, who by all accounts is the real deal after just being named MVP of whatever fancy-pants camp he just went to. Rumor has it he man handled several 5 Star D-linemen in drills. Anyway, as to the rankings and assuming that means someone out-recruited someone else… fool me once, shame on…

  11. choppack1 08/05/2009 at 4:33 PM #

    “Chop: I did miss the pre-cut Open days this year. I just assumed he was all over the place and thus in trouble. I followed him on Thursday and Frida at The Open at Carnoustie (we sat at 18 and watched Vanderval or whatever his name is literally Tin-Cup it up on the last day) and Woods hit driver only once that I recall in 36 holes. He didn’t win, but I don’t recall him taking himself out of it with over-zealous play either. I admittedly did not watch him at all this year. So you are very correct. ”

    I was kind of joking w/ you. This year at the BO, Tiger was not himself – he made those stupid mistakes weekend duffers do – like trying to hit the perfect shot which brings more risk than taking a more conservative approach that removes them. However, I agree w/ your greater point. Tiger’s the best golf in part because he makes great decisions on the course.

  12. GAWolf 08/05/2009 at 4:33 PM #

    VAWolf: Serious question – who do you think had the most momentum from which to start as a new head coach in this area all things considered (past performance, reputation, tradition, momentum – all from the new school’s perspective that is)? That’s a terribly worded question. My apologies. Strike that. Who had the easier jump on recruiting at their new school, Davis or O’Brien?

  13. GAWolf 08/05/2009 at 4:37 PM #

    Chop: And truthfully, if anyone out there has the game/ability to take those risks it’s Tiger. But yet he rarely does. Wilson has that same level of ability assuming last year was not a farce of things to come. He could likely take a risk but has enough in-the-moment awareness to opt for the safer play. Certainly someone can be too cautious on the field of play, but Wilson just seems to make almost perfect split second decisions. It’s almost unreal at times.

  14. VaWolf82 08/05/2009 at 5:11 PM #

    Who had the easier jump on recruiting at their new school, Davis or O’Brien?

    I’m not sure what you are driving at or why it matters. Both coaches took over programs in pitiful condition based on won/loss record. Hiring Butch in Oct/Nov kept UNC from going thru a bad class during the coaching transition. UNC FB recruiting probably gets a carry-over advantage with local kids based on basketball success. But I don’t see how any of that affects anything said in the article or in the comments.

    The issue with using Amato’s recruiting class rankings as the justification for predicting future success lay in the fact Amato didn’t assemble an entire team. State had glaring deficiencies at QB, OL, and LB even before Amato left. I don’t intend to spend time studying UNC’s roster…but I have no reason to think that BD lacks the ability to build a complete team.

  15. packalum44 08/05/2009 at 7:43 PM #

    My 2 cents on recruiting:

    If you put the recruiting issue in a vacuum (meaning putting aside all other variables which CONTRIBUTE to recruiting success), Butch is probably easily better. So is Chuck Amato.

    ASSUMPTION: recruiting hinges MORE on a program’s SUCCESS than anything else. Look at Miami…they got top 5 classes with Larry Coker and Randy Shannon. Are those guys SUPER recruiters??? Is Joe Pa inherently awesome at recruiting? If I got named head coach at USC, I bet I could haul in a top 5 class with my eyes closed.

    With above assumption, UNC likely has a MARGINAL edge in recruiting overall b/c they are a nationally known school (thanks to b-ball and other sports) whereas people west of TN may have never heard of NC State. This is offset somewhat by our superior facilities.

    With that said, I think the past 2 years saw the largest talent gap that these two schools will know for some time (assuming both coaches stay) due to the attrition at NC State and the fact that Bunting redshirted arguably his best class during his lameduck year (top 25). Amato, on the other hand, left O’Brien with walk-ons on the 2 deep.

    The gap has narrowed and will continue to do so for a few reasons. One is obvious, more depth at NC State. Two, Butch is better but not THAT much better. He’s not going to out-recruit TOB every year or by a jaw dropping margin. Thirdly, and this is the whole gist of my believe, is that as TOB wins more games (hopefully more than UNC), he suddenly becomes a better recruiter. Funny how that happens. If/when he wins an ACC Championship game and Orange Bowl, watch out!

    Moreover, TOB is one of the best EVALUATORS of talent in the country. This offsets his whiffs on the 5 stars to some degree. His 3 stars (TJ Graham, Jake Vermiglio, Matt Ryan) Also, TOB is one of the best DEVELOPERS of talent in the country.

    Enough said. Butch is a better recruiter at this point in his career. I hope that trend changes.

  16. GAWolf 08/05/2009 at 8:32 PM #

    I still don’t see how you can necessarily say Butch is better than TOB. Is it possible? Sure. Is it a given? I don’t think so. You look at where TOB has been prior to comin to Raleigh and where Butch has been. Boston vs. Miami. Are you kidding? The fast hot life and crazy women of Miami or the snow and who-gives-a-shit attitude about college athletics? The talent rich Dade County region of Florida or the no-man’s-land of New England? I just don’t see how you’ve yet to compare apples to apples.

  17. GAWolf 08/05/2009 at 8:42 PM #

    One last thing and I’ll leave this alone. (And I’m certainly not trying to challenge any of your opinions as being incorrect, but rather our opinions differ and that’s ok.) All of this doesn’t even bring into account the main issue that differentiates the likes of TOB and Amato and I would say Butch Davis: style vs substance. Obviously someone earlier talked about having an eye for talent and developing talent and those are certainly a part of what I’m characterizing for lack of a better term as “style vs substance”. When Amato sang to AJ Davis and yanked him from the jaws of Bunting and Co and thereafter there was this hoopla about the “fast lane” I really thought we had turned the corner and were on the road to championships…whatever that means. And then I personally watched 6 UNC vs NCState games in a row both home and away and we flat out got our butts kicked all over the field by what I had been told was a far less talented team. And shame on me for buying into that garbage. The bottom line is that I just don’t see any reason at this point to think TOB is going to regularly get beaten out for head-to-head recruits who have the substance that we want as student athletes on our football team. And if I never see an arm flap by a defensive back as long as I live…whether he’s a 0 star or a 5 star…it will be plenty soon enough for me.

  18. tootallorder 08/05/2009 at 9:47 PM #

    GAWolf wrote: “And then I personally watched 6 UNC vs NCState games in a row both home and away and we flat out got our butts kicked all over the field by what I had been told was a far less talented team. And shame on me for buying into that garbage.”

    Yep.

  19. cooldrip 08/06/2009 at 1:07 AM #

    I think GaWolf touches on something here in terms of TOB’s recruiting. He recruits talented kids, but more than that, he recruits GOOD kids. I remember looking through the profiles of the 2009 class; alot of those kids were Honor Roll students, class officers, etc. I recall several had offers from the service academies.

    I believe recruiting rankings to A large degree are based on a player’s physical attributes, whether it be a QB who can make that cross-field deep-out throw, or a 6’7″ DE with 4.5 speed, or a huge, quick DT. Thus you have players like Harrison Beck or Derrick Morris. Guys whose measurables are impressive, but they just aren’t the complete package.

    It’s much harder to assess the “immeasurables”; a player’s coachability, his toughness under adversity, his ability to meet standards of performance and conduct, his leadership qualities, etc. TOB and his staff seem to have a good handle on assessing these qualities in recruits. I think it’s the reason we haven’t offered a QB yet; I think TOB and Bible understand the importance of these qualities in a QB and are set on finding the right fit for our team.

    Our classes haven’t been highly ranked over the previous three years, although I believe as we proceed through the TOB era those rankings will rise due to the foundation of success we’re building. I don’t think the recruiting philosophy will change; success will just make us more viable to the top level recruits. tOSU has built a dynasty on this type of recruiting; good solid hauls of tough Midwest kids with a few elite athletes sprinkled through the lineup.

    Recruiting rankings IMO are also based on a player’s offer sheet; kids with offers from the elite programs must be great, right? And to a certain extent this is true; a player with offers from USC, Fl, OU, Texas, LSU etc. is probably a stud. As TOB builds success, and as his players matriculate to the NFL, we’ll receive this reputation bump in the rankings. How many OL did BC send to the NFL during TOB’s tenure? And he managed this with a far less-fertile recruiting base than he has now. If/when some of our guys are playing in the trenches on Sunday, the perception will be that an offer from NCSU to an OL means he’s one of the best in the country.

    We’re in good hands with TOB & staff. Recruiting will take care of itself as we continue to build. And we’ll be proud of the end product, and the players who created it. Winning the RIGHT way. I like the sound of that.

  20. Wufpacker 08/06/2009 at 1:12 AM #

    GAWolf, perhaps they were less talented. I’m not sure whether they were or not, but hindsight has shown us the coaching deficiencies of those teams and, despite the losses, perhaps they were more talented.

    This issue has been discussed on and off for a while now, that is whether or not recruiting just by the number of stars is effective. I don’t know that there is a right or wrong answer, and like many, I think there is much more to success than just recruiting rankings, the quality of coaching being probably the main ingredient. Also, some coaches do seem to have a knack for finding the “diamond-in-the-rough”, but again that is likely at least in part, due to coaching ability itself (coaching up a player with less raw talent).

    Looking at the issue of Butch Davis vs TOB in recruiting…it does beg the question, just because Davis’ recruiting classes have been more highly rated does that mean he is the better recruiter. I don’t think there’s really any way to determine that for certain though. You’d have to have each coach play their schedule with their players, then have each switch and play the other’s schedule with the other’s players and then compare results. Even then it would be impossible to say how much one’s success compared to the other’s would have to do with raw talent versus coaching.

    So basically all this talk today of who is the better recruiter has been pretty pointless. The only thing we can judge is who is more successful overall, and so far its too soon to say even that.

    But I am glad we have the coach we have.

  21. Oldwolf 08/06/2009 at 7:47 AM #

    Aren’t the recruiting rankings based on who signed with the school? These are calculated at that time. Are there ever any adjustments based on who actually enrolls for the fall? Weren’t several of Butch’s highest ranked recruits not at unc-ch this fall (I know that TOB had several also, but not as many of the very high ranked ones). These also get to count more than once when and if they do show up, right? Such as Tobias Palmer is now listed as a 2010 recruit for us.

    How do these rankings compare base on who actually shows up?

  22. MatSci94 08/06/2009 at 8:50 AM #

    “Are there ever any adjustments based on who actually enrolls for the fall?”

    I am pretty sure they do not.

    I’m also not sure that since both Amato and Davis sign “good” (high star number) classes, that UNC will become what we were under Amato. Davis may actually be able to keep a staff together, and be a better X/O coach. Having said that, rankings are extremely subjective (remember the UNC assist saying he could raise or lower a kids ranking at will?), and are a bad measure (15 5* DE’s is not better than a balanced class). At the same time, talent and development of talent matter, and if you consistently get more talented players, you will have an advantage.

  23. MatSci94 08/06/2009 at 8:54 AM #

    “How do these rankings compare base on who actually shows up?”

    Some people here don’t like Dave Glenn, but they did a thing a couple of years ago (and may do it regularly, I don’t read his magazine) where they looked at recruiting classes from 3-4 years ago, and gave a point for each player on the 2-Deep roster (maybe the projected roster, don’t remember exactly). The idea being that as a Jr/Sr, you should be in one of those spots. Maybe you give extra points for All-Conf and POY kind of things, but thats something that would be interesting to see.

    GAWolf: I like Glenn. And I agree that this sort of analysis is the best indicator of a coach’s combined ability to find talent and develop it (especially if nominations to awards or national kudos are taken into account).

  24. GAWolf 08/06/2009 at 9:20 AM #

    Something to watch regarding recruiting that I picked up on this week and explored a little:

    Notre Dame is making a mark in NC recruiting as of late. John Tenuta, former GATech and UNC Defensive Coordinator, is the sole connection to NC that I can see from reading the ND staff’s bios. All of the NC kids heading to South Bend or at least considering the Irish are all on the defensive side of the ball. That tells me it’s Tenuta, who obviously knows what he’s talking about and thus I’m sure his pitch resonates well with all high school coaches and likely their players.

    We’re battling ND for Amerson, and we lost a Raleigh LB to ND earlier this month. They just picked up another verbal this week as well.

  25. Girlfriend in a Coma 08/06/2009 at 9:56 AM #

    2-0 is a much better indication of what actually matters. I know I learned my lesson with Amato regarding how much high school “star rankings” are actually worth on gameday. IMO UNC-CH fans will learn the same thing.

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