Tobacco Road Football – HD picks “Carolina” despite ranking State higher in power ratings

'09 Football15

First, I really liked this entry on the ACC Atlantic’s Ultimate 2009 schedule. The Wolfpack’s games comprise almost half the season with five selections and that doesn’t include the last game of the year when Carolina travels to Carter-Finley. Maybe that game could have made the list if the Tarheels could have kept the score closer last season.

Next, this was somewhat of a stupid question, but I guess most of the media’s canned questions leave a lot to be desired. Regardless, I liked the way Coach O’Brien jumped on it:

While we are talking about Tobacco Road Football – this link asks who will rule North Carolina this year?

First of all, don’t count out Wake Forest, even though the Demon Deacons lost some of their best defensive players to come through the program. Riley Skinner is one of the winningest quarterbacks in the league, and he’s got a much better and deeper supporting cast to work with this fall. But I do think UNC and NC State are the teams to beat this year on Tobacco Road. Don’t forget that Tom O’Brien and the Wolfpack owned the state last year with wins over East Carolina, North Carolina, Wake Forest and Duke. Nate Irving played in all of those games, though.

Here’s how the Carolina schools stacked up in the last ACC Power Rankings:

NC State
North Carolina
Wake Forest
Duke

Since then, Irving, NC State’s top playmaker on defense has suffered serious injuries in a car accident, and Dominique Ellis, a potential starter in the secondary, has decided to leave the program. Meanwhile, North Carolina’s young receivers are still unproven and kicker Jay Wooten has decided to transfer. Both of these teams have a few issues.

NC State appears to be stronger on offense, and North Carolina probably has the better defense. The two will face each other in the regular season-finale on Nov. 28 in Raleigh. It’s the first end-of-the-year meeting at NC State since 1995. And who knows? Irving might be back to his old self by then.

So who wins?

Carolina. The Tar Heels return a league-high nine starters on defense, including the entire defensive line. They’ve got an efficient quarterback in T.J. Yates. And they’ve got a talented tandem of running backs in Shaun Draughn and Ryan Houston who will help take some pressure off of the young receivers. The departure of Ellis and possible loss of Irving isn’t going to knock the Wolfpack out of the running for the Atlantic Division, but it definitely won’t help their chances.

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'09 Football

15 Responses to Tobacco Road Football – HD picks “Carolina” despite ranking State higher in power ratings

  1. Sw0rdf1sh 07/25/2009 at 5:08 PM #

    Did this come from Andrew Jones or Buster Sports. Stooopid thinking.

    Our RB stable is WAY more packed than UNX and our QB so much more than yates.

    When the LB corps that UNC thinks they have gets exposed, HD might realize she was wrong….

    She wants to join that media circus who thinks Basketball and Butch Davis = awesomeness. Football doesn’t give a shit about Basketball, and so far, all their most awesome recruits have nothing but the potential tag….or the exposed tag from last year. Take your pick.

  2. MatSci94 07/25/2009 at 7:53 PM #

    The Defense > Offense idea here would be a more sound argument if our O didn’t hang 41 on them last year. I just think its funny how we hear how unreasonable our expectations are at NC State, while just a few miles down the road…

  3. tobaccordshow 07/25/2009 at 9:24 PM #

    Seriously, I think HD has a great point here. Carolina will win out in the finale in Raleigh for one reason, which is comprised of two very simple and poignant words:

    PINE

    TREES

  4. one00_proof 07/25/2009 at 9:57 PM #

    …ROFL at the logic here.

    State loses Irving and Ellis and while this does hurt in some regard, people forget that State’s entire front line on the defense remains intact with Young and Cash leading the charge. Sure the secondary is phased with the loss of Ellis, but Carolina’s young receiving corp won’t exactly spread the field and Yates still hasn’t quite got over the hump yet as an effective QB (we’ll see how good he is w/o his NFL receiving corp). Carolina will be relying on the running game and that plays right into State’s hands and for those who saw the spring game, will definitely be a handful for any OLine.

    Meanwhile UNC returns nine starters on defense, the same defense that State put up 41 points against at their house. Sure the state’s O-line is weaker, but RW thrives when the pocket breaks down and he is forced to roll out. RW does a great job of buying time and with State’s entire receiving corp returning, UNC will be forced to pick their poison whether to let RW beat them with his arm or his legs. Most teams will choose to let RW hang in the pocket but here’s the thing, he only threw one INT last year and State’s entire receiving corp returns led by Owen Spencer who is one of the best receivers in the league at getting separation.

    The key to this game is how fast State’s young O-Line can mature by the end of the season in comparison to UNC’s D-Line. UNC’s defense is definitely talented, by TOB has proven both years that he is able to mold the offensive line into an effective unit by the midpoint of the season. Couple that fact with a crop of players SUITED to play offensive line (most of the players were recruited to play O-Line), and it’s hard to imagine this unit not being effective, especially by the end of the year.

    I doubt the game will be another 41-10 blowout, UNC has too much talent and will be coming for revenge, but to pick them against the Pack at Carter Finley is a stretch.

  5. 61Packer 07/25/2009 at 10:00 PM #

    I’ve got a feeling that come Nov 28, you’re going to have 2 teams on the same field but who are headed in totally opposite directions. I can’t think of one reason to pick UNC in this one, which I think could be another rout going our way.

    I like the way our football coach thinks, and I love the way we’ve played against UNC since he took over here.

  6. tjfoose1 07/26/2009 at 5:17 AM #

    UNC picked to win huh?….

    I guess Heather forgot they were playing in CF this year, unless she thinks all those beautiful pine trees around Kenan are part of the traveling squad.

    I seem to recall the smurfs were 11 point favorites last year. How’d that one end up again?

    “When the LB corps that UNC thinks they have gets exposed, HD might realize she was wrong….” – Right on the mark. Apparently, a good percentage of those who favor light blue seem to think speed = great LB.

  7. GAWolf 07/26/2009 at 7:44 AM #

    And we always have the personal revenge factor when TOB takes the field against UNC.

  8. TOBtime 07/26/2009 at 8:21 AM #

    What a bobble-headed journalistic view of football this was. Yates is efficient? At what? Handing the ball off to the unknowns? Daniel Evans was “efficient” at that as well.
    As far as the holes defense, go back and look at their last month of play from 2008. Losing Nate hurts us, sure, but if our D-line comes through our young linebackers can run loose and that makes it a ALOT easier on the secondary.
    Don’t forget what TOB can do with O-lines. The O-line may be an unknown right now but I’m betting they look pretty good by the last game of the season. TOB has some talent there now and look at what he’s done without talent on the O-line.

  9. Dogbreath 07/26/2009 at 8:36 AM #

    Every year we see it: carolina folds like a cheap suit once their delusional aspirations at a BCS slot are gone. They will roll into Carter Finley with 3 losses, and we will stomp a mudhole into them.

  10. bradleyb123 07/26/2009 at 9:31 AM #

    What’s new? Carolina is almost always overrated. HD knows stuff like this will get the Wolfpack Nation to read her stuff. This is sports journalism at its finest. Why write the truth when stuff like this sells?

    I see no reason whatsoever to pick Carolina to beat State. They have nothing but questions on offense, and I’m not even convinced Yates is all that great. It may be a case of Nicks MAKING him look good. Even if he is great, they have nobody proven to catch the ball. They might surprise everyone and be great on offense, but at this point, they’re just unproven. I think the sports writers that are picking Carolina to do great things are just going by last year’s eight wins combined with a good recruiting class. And I think they also hope Carolina will back them up, so they look like geniuses for having picked them so early.

    And she forgets that NC State is a pretty solid football team, too. And better yet, the game is in Carter-Finley. I think HD surely can’t be serious with her Carolina pick.

    There’s something to be said for locker room material. Hopefully TOB is filing these things away for game week.

  11. Par Shooter 07/26/2009 at 10:45 AM #

    To even hazard a guess as to how a season ending game will turn out at this point in time is the height of lunacy. I can understand making a guess as to who will have the better season based on some of these factors but to then take the next leap and try to predict a game to be played 4 months from now is really stupid.

  12. aPACKadeez 07/26/2009 at 11:22 AM #

    So on another note, did anyone checkout WRAL this morning? Peter Singer, who I’m guessing we offered just so we could land Rob Crisp, was stopped in his car and found marijuana, a freakin’ gun and an open alchohol container in his possession.

    I’m guessing that’s a good thing if he doesn’t play for us, since we could probably find a better DB? Any comments or anyone who knows anything about this kid have any ideas?

    Also, does anyone know how Nate Irving is doing???

  13. highstick 07/26/2009 at 12:41 PM #

    Get the chain saws out and make sure there’s not a pine tree anywhere within sight of CF!

    Saw the article on Singer this morning. Not sure I want this kid around.

  14. Clarksa 07/26/2009 at 8:18 PM #

    HD picks us 2nd in the Atlantic and UNC-CH 4th in the Coastal…

    http://myespn.go.com/blogs/acc/0-6-359/My-preseason-ballot–VT-does-it-again.html

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