Pack’s ACC Tourney Scenario & Commentary: Maryland or VPI

08-09 Basketball General83

Via  the Washington Times, here is the current seeding situation the Wolfpack finds itself in for next week’s ACC Tourney:

Currently, NC STATE sits at 16-12 overall, with a 6-9 conference record

  • Will be the No. 9 seed with a victory over Miami; the Wolfpack would lose all tiebreakers to both Maryland (0-1 head-to-head) and Virginia Tech (0-1 head-to-head)
  • Will be the No. 10 seed with a loss to Miami

And to review the schedule for the first two days of the tournament:

Thursday Matchups
No. 8 vs. No. 9, 12 pm
No. 5 vs. No. 12 Georgia Tech, 2:30 pm
No. 7 vs. No. 10, 7 pm
No. 6 vs. No. 11 Virginia, 9:30 pm

  • Maryland will be the No. 7 seed with a victory at Virginia OR a Virginia Tech loss to Florida State.
  • Maryland will be the No. 8 seed with a loss at Virginia AND a Virginia Tech victory against Florida State.
  • Virginia Tech will be the No. 7 seed with a victory over Florida State AND a Maryland loss at Virginia.
  • Virginia Tech will be the No. 8 seed with a loss to Florida State OR a Maryland victory at Virginia.
  • Miami Will be the No. 9 seed with a victory over NCSU.
  • Miami would be the No. 10 see with a loss to the Wolfpack.


And if State wins Thursday, Friday Matchups:
No. 1 vs. 8-9 winner, 12 pm
No. 4 vs. 5-12 winner, 2:30 pm
No. 2 vs 7-10 winner, 7 pm
No. 3 vs. 6-11 winner, 9:30 pm

Here are some of the second round possibilities:

  • Wake Forest will be the No. 2 seed with a win over Clemson and a Duke loss to North Carolina.
  • Duke will be the top seed with a win at North Carolina and a Wake Forest win over Clemson.
  • UNC will be the top seed if they beat Duke.

The following is some additional commentary and perspective:

  • NC State is locked into a first round game against wither Virginia Tech or Maryland.

  • State could finished tied with VPI and Maryland in the standings with everyone at 7-9 if VPI loses to FSU and MD loses to UVa and we beat Miam. But, among that group, we are 0-2, while VT is 1-1 and MD is 2-0. Maryland would be #7, VT #8 and NC State #9. We would play VPI in the first round.
  • Basically, VPI and Maryland are battling for 7/8 with Maryland owning the tiebreak should they tie; NC State and Miami are playing for 9/10. Those 4 play each other on Thursday in the ACCT, except we cant play Miami no matter what.
  • Best guess: (a) beat Miami, play VPI in the 8/9 game, or (b) lose to Miami, play MD in the 7/10 game.
  • With Miami losing last night, NC State vs Miami becomes a true standings game – loser is locked into the 10th position. Finishing 10th is almost better than 9th, because the 8/9 winner will be matched against UNC on Friday, while the 7/10 winneer will face Duke. We match much better with Duke than UNC. I think MD will finish 7th.

  • Having said that, I hope we beat Miami to get 7 ACC wins and finish 9th. It is much better to finish 9th, even if that means facing UNC on Friday because:
    (1) 7 ACC wins would lock up a NIT bid most likely
    (2) 7 ACC wins would be more than Herb Sendek ever got until his 6th year
    (3) Going from 4 to 7 ACC wins is a very nice improvement
    (4) 7 ACC wins doesn’t make us a bubble team. The ONLY way to make the NCAAT is to win the ACCT. I think its better to play UNC on Day 2 than Day 4 to do that.

  • I’d probably rather play Maryland than VPI on Friday (I think VPI is better), but we have shown we can beat VPI.
  • Unless we suddenly get the best officiated game in the history of our program, I think the only way we win the ACCT is if someone else beats the Holes for us. Six teams in the league are probably capable of beating them – MD, BC, Miami, Wake, VPI, FSU – as their Achilles’ heel is an athletic, high-scoring point or combo guard. That’s what beats UNC. We don’t have that, and neither does Duke or Clemson. I think UNC is 80% likely to win the ACCT, but if they lose I expect it will be to FSU in the semis.
08-09 Basketball General

83 Responses to Pack’s ACC Tourney Scenario & Commentary: Maryland or VPI

  1. Gene 03/06/2009 at 12:14 AM #

    Roy hates the ACC tournament.

    Tarheels have won the last two. Ever since Duke tied or surpassed (not sure which) Carolina in ACC tournament titles, Roy has been forced to care about the ACC tournament and has taken care of business.

  2. articwolf 03/06/2009 at 1:43 AM #

    Anyone who believes this team has any chance of getting an ncaa tournament bid without winning the acct is delusional. NC STATE bball has become an irrelevant joke, ala Michael McDonald, and will not receive any respect from the ncaa or the basketball community at large until we consistently beat high profile teams. I don’t care what our RPI is. We don’t go to tournament unless we win tournament!
    Kenny “Danger Zone” Loggins

  3. Wulfpack 03/06/2009 at 6:29 AM #

    Alpha, yes I know the team mailed it in early last year. But does that not fall on the coach? You can’t just dismiss it as if it never happened, as if the season never occurred. Sid did not motivate the team last year. He has corrected that this year. That’s all that I’m saying.

    I expect us to perform much better in the ACC Tourney this year, though our second round game will be a real check on where we are as a program. UNC, Duke, Wake and Clemson, our primary rivals, are each well positioned to do some serious damage in the NCAA Tournament. We will be sitting home playing in some other tournament that nobody cares about.

    And to clear up any confusion, the ONLY way N.C. State makes the NCAA Tournament this year is to WIN the ACC Tournament. We just do not have the total body of work to merit a bid given our lack of any kind of significant win in the non-conference portion of our schedule.

  4. BoKnowsNCS71 03/06/2009 at 8:00 AM #

    Luke Decock of the N&O did a great letter to John Wall today about why he should go to NC State. See it at newsobserver.com under sports.

  5. ms termeaner 03/06/2009 at 8:02 AM #

    Geez I am not sure if it’s a male thing but you people are whacked . I have been lurking about here for awhile and finally had enough.
    I think most of you shut-ins here are usiing 4 or 5 handles,I think this whole pro Sid vs anti Sid is a joke.
    As a grad and a mom of a recent grad as well as a current student as well as football and BBall season ticket holders I as well as any sane and objective person can tell by the results,the crowd, and the effort, which program is moving forward and which is just spinning its wheels.

    You are more than welcome to your opinion, and more than welcome to share it. That isn’t a license to take unfounded potshots on other people, however, and having an opinion contrary to your own neither indicates insanity nor does it indicate that the person posting is some sort of recluse. –Alpha

  6. Alpha Wolf 03/06/2009 at 8:21 AM #

    Alpha, yes I know the team mailed it in early last year. But does that not fall on the coach? You can’t just dismiss it as if it never happened, as if the season never occurred. Sid did not motivate the team last year. He has corrected that this year. That’s all that I’m saying.

    I don’t completely excuse Lowe for last year, but I also don’t completely blame him either. The saying that you can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make him drink. In the case of some of our players last year, they seemed determined to pout and not give their full effort. That is on them, not the coaches.

    Heck, I have played for coaches I didn’t like, but once out on the field I gave it my all. That was my choice and my doing.

  7. Wulfpack 03/06/2009 at 8:32 AM #

    Yet these same players are now motivated and playing better and suddenly, he deserves all of the credit. It works both ways, my friend, and he is the leader of the Pack.

  8. Alpha Wolf 03/06/2009 at 8:38 AM #

    ^ You are making an inaccurate assumption — that I give all of the credit to Lowe. McCauley in particular has a much better attitude and it has shown on the court. He deserves credit for that.

  9. st0rmin 03/06/2009 at 8:42 AM #

    Great analysis except who cares about Herb Sendek – forget him – I don’t care when got 7 victories. Focus on the here and now. Win with 7.

    The one exception to your analysis. I think if we win Saturday then we have to get to the ACC tournament finals not win to get in. 20-13 (10-10 in the ACC games) with wins over WFU, BC, Va.Tech/Maryland, most likely UNC and Clemson/FSU, should be bubble worthy and put us ahead of Maryland – the 7th team today.

  10. kyjelly 03/06/2009 at 8:49 AM #

    Wow ^ Is that all? Heck lets give us a bye right to the championship as well.

  11. packbackr04 03/06/2009 at 8:51 AM #

    well the talking heads are still talking about Kentucky and Notre Dame being bubble teams and their respective records are no better than ours/ i find it crazy to think Kentucky is even being talked about as an NCAA team

  12. Greywolf 03/06/2009 at 8:57 AM #

    I was driving to Starbucks this morning steering my car while looking in the rear view mirror. Guess where I would up? Where I went yesterday. And that’s what you are going to get looking at what Sid and the Wolfpack did last year and at the games the first of the season while speculating about how they will do Saturday and in the ACCT.

    Before you pick a fight with the 98 lb. weakling in the fall who got sand kicked in his face in the spring, you might want to find out what he has been doing over the summer.

  13. com state10 03/06/2009 at 9:21 AM #

    More importantly than all of this, is the fact that a win tomorrow vs. Miami gives me the 7-9 ACC record I predicted.

    What does this site give out for a prize? ACC Tourney tickets? Cash? Tickets to the opening night football game vs. USC?!

  14. ktoh 03/06/2009 at 9:36 AM #

    ^ Another season next year of hope as well as despair. Go rent groundhogs day

  15. Greywolf 03/06/2009 at 9:46 AM #

    “Yet these same players are now motivated and playing better and suddenly, he deserves all of the credit. It works both ways, my friend, and he is the leader of the Pack.”
    .
    What’s this fascination with credit and blame? The President doesn’t “blame” the General when there are problems with the troops, he does, however, hold the General responsible. Can we not hold Sid responsible without incessantly seeking to apply fault and blame or, for that matter, credit and praise. IMNSHO “Credit and blame” is the lizzard brain having its way with the rational, evolved brain.
    .
    Said another way, “Credit and blame” is a backwards look at life — steering the car by the rear-view mirror. I have time to find a solution to a problem OR find whose fault the problem is, but not both: Choose! Fault and blame is debilitating, using energy that is best used for action in moving forward.
    .
    In Alpha’s post above about V tinkering etc., there never was any fault finding or blame involved. The success of the team was V’s responsibility and he sought solutions. V’s attitude was always positive: “Lo, after you make those free throws….” “Sidney, after that sombitch misses those free throws, we’re gonna…” V was being responsible for both missing and making them. There would be no blaming Lo for missing, but freely and generously acknowledged Lo for making them.
    .
    Leaders who are not interested in finding fault and blame don’t have trouble finding followers. Think not? Just look at Jimmy V. V has followers even after his death. Jimmy V took responsibility for finding a cure for the cancer that took his life.

  16. LKNpackfan 03/06/2009 at 9:47 AM #

    In this thread, I predicted 6-10. Hopefully com state10 is right and I’m wrong. We’ve handed Miami a couple crushing defeats in that last few years – May’s buzzer-beater in OT after Miami battled back from a 19-pt deficient this season, and Gavin Grant’s stolen inbounds pass at the buzzer last year – I’d like for it not to come so close on Saturday, like maybe building a 19pt lead and hanging onto it for once. THEN, let’s talk ACCT.

  17. Ed89 03/06/2009 at 10:25 AM #

    ^^^ Another season next year of hope as well as despair. Go rent groundhogs day

    ^^^^Wow ^ Is that all? Heck lets give us a bye right to the championship as well.

    KY and ktoh at it again.

    Yap, Yap, Yap….

    BTW, good post Greywolf.

  18. ppack3 03/06/2009 at 12:25 PM #

    Alpha – Keen insight about V. We do see that same sort of tinkering with offenses and defenses under Lowe. The season prepares you for the tournaments. This is exactly the point that I have been trying to make. Sid is a Wooten and V product. It’s hard for me to discount that fact. Anyone who doesn’t think that Sid knows basketball….c’mon. Last year’s tournament was over before it started, and it started with a bunch of bruised egos. Wouldn’t you say something had to be amiss for Sid to sit Gavin Grant in his final game with the Pack? This year is a different animal.

    Greywolf – I like the way you think. And, I think Sid learned those same leadership qualities from an early age, from some of the brightest basketball minds ever to be around the sport. Some criticize Sid for “blaming” the players, but if you listen closely, you’ll actually find that he chooses his words carefully, and decidedly lumps the team and coaches into one group when asked a ‘blame’ question via the press. “We didn’t run enough of our stuff. We didn’t get the guys the rest they needed.” etc. We never heard Lowe break the news of the team’s problems last year. Actually, any mention of it from players was met with a swift punishment. For a great example, see McCauley’s missed trip to Canada.

  19. Greywolf 03/06/2009 at 12:29 PM #

    The Wolfpack making it to the finals and into the NCAAs, while not probable, is not impossible. I love to read the speculations and the possible scenerios that get us to the Big Dance. Are the speculators making predictions? No. Just looking to see what’s possible, which for a State fan is a lot more fun than covering my emotional ass by making doomsday predictions.
    .
    Can a team lose 3 out of 4 games in a 15 team field and finished 4th in a tournament? Impossible. you say? No, not impossible, just improbable. Interested in how that might be possible?
    .
    Four Divisions, I, II, III IV
    4 teams in Div. I, II, III
    3 teams in Div. IV (result of 1 team dropping out of tournament)
    In 3 team Div. IV, Team A, beats team B, who beats Team C, who beats team A. Each team is 1-1. One team wins Div. due to tie breakers.
    Div. I & II play to advance to Championship Game with Div. I advancing
    Div. III & IV play to advance to Championship Game with Div. III advancing
    Div. I defeats Div. III determining 1st and 2nd place
    Div. II defeats Div. IV determing 3rd and 4th place
    The bottom line, Div. IV winner loses 3 out of 4 games but finishes 4th in a 15 team field.

    No possible scenerio being presented in this thread any more unreasonable or unlikely.

  20. redfred2 03/06/2009 at 12:54 PM #

    Well, all I can say is that while it would be really nice to E-A-R-N some kind of post season play, I’m not really too hip on getting in simply by default. I’ve experienced enough of that already, I can wait a little while longer for something REAL to develop.

  21. MP 03/06/2009 at 12:59 PM #

    This may have already been noted in other comments, but if I am not mistaken…

    State could win this Saturday against Miami and set themselves up to play #1 seed Duke on Friday in the ACCT if Duke beats UNC and Wake beats Clemson this weekend.

    …just sayin’ we gotta let all the games play out.

  22. kyjelly 03/06/2009 at 1:30 PM #

    Gee, some may not like what I say ,but I do root for us always,just don’t lump me in with anyone else.

    Whats the deal with the cbi tournament?

  23. ms termeaner 03/06/2009 at 1:41 PM #

    Whats the story on n&o article saying the rbc is the worst bball facility in the league?

  24. Alpha Wolf 03/06/2009 at 1:53 PM #

    ^ That’s their opinion, and I don’t agree with it because I think that BC and Miami’s buildings are far worse than ours, but I would suppose it stems from the fact that we have a serious problem with the bottom half of the arena being 3/4 full all too often and the place being awfully quiet at times.

    I also think it is a bit of an unrealistic expectation for State to have the place filled to the rafters for every game when folks’ discretionary income is threatened or gone, when the team is in 10th or 11th place in the ACC and when the non-conference schedule is uninspiring. GT has had problems filling their place this year, as have a few other teams too.

    This was the risk that State took when they threw in their Centennial Center concept in with a pro hockey team and the city, each of which have their own agendas. I think that State would be better suited to play in a ~16K basketball-only on-campus where students could easily get to and from games simply by walking — the way we used to do with Reynolds.

  25. redfred2 03/06/2009 at 4:32 PM #

    The RBC is not a good arena for BB, and the EMPTY LTR seats aren’t helping us look any better when playing on TV either. It’s a nice place, but about all I can say positive about watching BB games in the RBC, is that tickets are easy to come by.

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