Pack’s ACC Tourney Scenario & Commentary: Maryland or VPI

08-09 Basketball General83

Via  the Washington Times, here is the current seeding situation the Wolfpack finds itself in for next week’s ACC Tourney:

Currently, NC STATE sits at 16-12 overall, with a 6-9 conference record

  • Will be the No. 9 seed with a victory over Miami; the Wolfpack would lose all tiebreakers to both Maryland (0-1 head-to-head) and Virginia Tech (0-1 head-to-head)
  • Will be the No. 10 seed with a loss to Miami

And to review the schedule for the first two days of the tournament:

Thursday Matchups
No. 8 vs. No. 9, 12 pm
No. 5 vs. No. 12 Georgia Tech, 2:30 pm
No. 7 vs. No. 10, 7 pm
No. 6 vs. No. 11 Virginia, 9:30 pm

  • Maryland will be the No. 7 seed with a victory at Virginia OR a Virginia Tech loss to Florida State.
  • Maryland will be the No. 8 seed with a loss at Virginia AND a Virginia Tech victory against Florida State.
  • Virginia Tech will be the No. 7 seed with a victory over Florida State AND a Maryland loss at Virginia.
  • Virginia Tech will be the No. 8 seed with a loss to Florida State OR a Maryland victory at Virginia.
  • Miami Will be the No. 9 seed with a victory over NCSU.
  • Miami would be the No. 10 see with a loss to the Wolfpack.


And if State wins Thursday, Friday Matchups:
No. 1 vs. 8-9 winner, 12 pm
No. 4 vs. 5-12 winner, 2:30 pm
No. 2 vs 7-10 winner, 7 pm
No. 3 vs. 6-11 winner, 9:30 pm

Here are some of the second round possibilities:

  • Wake Forest will be the No. 2 seed with a win over Clemson and a Duke loss to North Carolina.
  • Duke will be the top seed with a win at North Carolina and a Wake Forest win over Clemson.
  • UNC will be the top seed if they beat Duke.

The following is some additional commentary and perspective:

  • NC State is locked into a first round game against wither Virginia Tech or Maryland.

  • State could finished tied with VPI and Maryland in the standings with everyone at 7-9 if VPI loses to FSU and MD loses to UVa and we beat Miam. But, among that group, we are 0-2, while VT is 1-1 and MD is 2-0. Maryland would be #7, VT #8 and NC State #9. We would play VPI in the first round.
  • Basically, VPI and Maryland are battling for 7/8 with Maryland owning the tiebreak should they tie; NC State and Miami are playing for 9/10. Those 4 play each other on Thursday in the ACCT, except we cant play Miami no matter what.
  • Best guess: (a) beat Miami, play VPI in the 8/9 game, or (b) lose to Miami, play MD in the 7/10 game.
  • With Miami losing last night, NC State vs Miami becomes a true standings game – loser is locked into the 10th position. Finishing 10th is almost better than 9th, because the 8/9 winner will be matched against UNC on Friday, while the 7/10 winneer will face Duke. We match much better with Duke than UNC. I think MD will finish 7th.

  • Having said that, I hope we beat Miami to get 7 ACC wins and finish 9th. It is much better to finish 9th, even if that means facing UNC on Friday because:
    (1) 7 ACC wins would lock up a NIT bid most likely
    (2) 7 ACC wins would be more than Herb Sendek ever got until his 6th year
    (3) Going from 4 to 7 ACC wins is a very nice improvement
    (4) 7 ACC wins doesn’t make us a bubble team. The ONLY way to make the NCAAT is to win the ACCT. I think its better to play UNC on Day 2 than Day 4 to do that.

  • I’d probably rather play Maryland than VPI on Friday (I think VPI is better), but we have shown we can beat VPI.
  • Unless we suddenly get the best officiated game in the history of our program, I think the only way we win the ACCT is if someone else beats the Holes for us. Six teams in the league are probably capable of beating them – MD, BC, Miami, Wake, VPI, FSU – as their Achilles’ heel is an athletic, high-scoring point or combo guard. That’s what beats UNC. We don’t have that, and neither does Duke or Clemson. I think UNC is 80% likely to win the ACCT, but if they lose I expect it will be to FSU in the semis.
08-09 Basketball General

83 Responses to Pack’s ACC Tourney Scenario & Commentary: Maryland or VPI

  1. StateFans 03/05/2009 at 3:37 PM #

    IMHO, if we can win just one more game this season – regardless of the game – I feel as though you can look back on the season and label it both ‘adequate’ and one of ‘meeting expectations’.

    No more wins and I would be slightly disappointed.

    More than one more win and I think the program will be able to claim a little momentum and keep criticism lower in the off-season.

    Just my opinion.

  2. wufpup76 03/05/2009 at 4:01 PM #

    “I just want us to keep a level-headed, realistic type mindset.”

    It’s human nature to be “high” after a win and “low” after a loss (most of the time, respectively). But part of the wild speculation about how the team would do in future games is due in part that there is no baseline measurement of what to expect from Sidney Lowe teams. It’s still being defined.

    His first season was comprised of a tough regular season (with a devestating injury) followed by a sucessful and encouraging postseason run. His second season the team disentegrated and quit. The second season was really unfortunate becuase it creates that seed of doubt that can spring back up in any season so long as Coach Lowe is here (“Oh no, I hope this team doesn’t quit. We’ve seen it before.”) The first season was good as it provided some hope (“Hey, we’ve made a run before – we could do it again!”).

    Until there is a consistent effort from the staff and team on a yearly basis wild specualtion will follow. Anything is possible at this stage because you’re just not entirely sure what to expect.

    I for one will always maintain hope. I hoped for a miracle last season and we saw how that worked out. I guess I love pain, what can I say? I’ll always hold out hope though.

  3. LRM 03/05/2009 at 4:25 PM #

    Maybe we can aspire to the 8-seed next season. Or even the 7-seed. What can I say, I’m a Dreamer.

  4. wufpup76 03/05/2009 at 4:26 PM #

    Not looking good for the Lady Pack at the moment … down by 10 to WF about halfway through the second half.

  5. ppack3 03/05/2009 at 4:45 PM #

    Pup – As a Pack fan, you had better learn to deal with some painful losses.
    On the flip side of that, I actually heard a Tarheel fan tell me that he was DONE getting excited about Carolina Basketball! Really? Are you tired of winning? Or, tired of getting friendly calls? Or, maybe you’re tired of having to narrow down which McDonald’s All Americans you can take based on the number of scholarships you have left?
    The point is that all of this is about perspective. I tend to be more optimistic as game time approaches. My cousin never thinks we are going to win, but if you talk smack about David Thompson, he will invite you outside. We all love NC State, or we wouldn’t be here. The differing views of our program keep me coming back here to read more.

  6. bradleyb123 03/05/2009 at 4:59 PM #

    “On the flip side of that, I actually heard a Tarheel fan tell me that he was DONE getting excited about Carolina Basketball! ”

    ppack3, I’m not sure which is worse… always having low expectations and periodically exceeding them, like State… or always having high expectations and constantly choking, like Carolina.

    Carolina fans are spoiled by their team’s success and don’t even realize it. I’d give one of my limbs to have half the success Carolina has had over the years. Ok, maybe not. But I would give serious thought to it!

  7. bradleyb123 03/05/2009 at 5:00 PM #

    The State girls made a furious run. They were down at least 11 with about 3-4 minutes left, and had it down to 3 with 26 seconds left. They ended up losing by 5. I was hoping they would make a tournament run for Kaye.

  8. wufpup76 03/05/2009 at 5:19 PM #

    Please delete if necessary, but I couldn’t help it:

    “If there is anything that proves Hansbrough, while a good player, is one of the greatest media creations in college basketball history, it’s the play of Griffin, who has been every bit as intense and gritty and nightmare-fueled this season as Hansbrough was last year, but has gotten a fraction of the press and appreciation.

    Griffin is Hansbrough. They’re the exact same player except that Griffin is more NBA-ready.

    In fact, Griffin’s toughness and grit might surpass even Hansbrough’s. Diving over that table post-concussion for a loose ball in a regular season game was impressive.

    It’s something that if Hansbrough did, it would lead the evening news. It would be Hansbrough, and then a story about AIG. There would be Beowulf-like odes sung in Hansbrough’s honor.

    As March insanity approaches, it seems the media has forgotten to anoint Griffin the new hustle-and-flow king the way it did Hansbrough last year.”

    http://www.cbssports.com/columns/story/11457662/rss

    I’m not a huge fan of Freeman’s work, but he has an extremely valid point here.

  9. ppack3 03/05/2009 at 5:27 PM #

    123 – I hate to dwell on certain topics, but State Fan hasn’t been spoiled like that since the mid-late 70’s. But, there was a (long) time when we won all of the time, Duke sucked, and Carolina hated to play us (and they considered us their only rival). I hate that I was knee high to a duck back then.
    In the 80’s, Jimmy V did NOT win 90% of his regular season games, or even 80%. But he was one hell of a motivator, and that made him a great coach when his teams’ backs were against the proverbial wall. Kay Yow was also a great motivator. I hope Sid uses every ounce of his NCSU lore (Case, Everett, Valvano, Yow, etc.) to inspire this team, and every team thereafter, to play their asses off until the fat lady sings.
    As State fans, at least my age and older, know that miracles can happen here. Because, they HAVE happened here. Not a lot of schools can say that. I attribute the “lunatic fringe” to this phenomena.

  10. Wolf Dog 03/05/2009 at 6:15 PM #

    I would rather play UNC cause they most likely gonna roll, so I hope we beat Miami this weekend. If Fells is still hurt, I don’t see us beating Miami on the road.

    Reason I would rather play UNC is that. UNC will most likely beat Duke and Roy will have his mythical ACC Regular season Championship that him and the media have created in recent years. IN which case Roy tanks the ACC tournament to rest his players for NCAA. Roy hates the ACC tournament.

  11. coachkoh 03/05/2009 at 6:33 PM #

    I did not get the memo but when packleader:”Sid does his best work during tourney time,wonder what he has up his sleeve.” Gee hope he has a different jacket than he wre against Miami in the acct.

  12. Alpha Wolf 03/05/2009 at 7:01 PM #

    ppack3, one thing to remember about Valvano was his philosophy of using the regular season to prepare his team for the tournament.

    V would tinker with lineups, offensive sets and plays, defenses, you name it, earlier in the season and then tighten it up more and more as the year went on. He also went from being teacher to taskmaster the second the ACCT tipped off.

  13. wufpup76 03/05/2009 at 8:35 PM #

    Random conference tourny update …

    Seth Greenberg’s brother Brad is the head coach at Radford … Radford is playing against (former N.C. State player) Eddie Biedenbach’s UNC-Ashville squad in the semifinals of the Big South tournament on EspnU (Radford is the 1 seed, Ashville the 4; Seth Curry and Liberty lost in the first semi against VMI)

    Anyway, you could never have guessed Brad is Seth’s brother (sarcasm) … If you get a chance, you should turn it over there to see how much Brad looks like Seth (or look it up online). Their sideline demeanor and mannerisms are almost just alike as well … pretty funny stuff.

  14. Wulfpack 03/05/2009 at 8:36 PM #

    “Sid always brings his best in the tourney”

    If anything, it’s a mixed bag. First year: incredible run to ACC Tourney Championship. Great effort against UNC in finals. Second Year: we play one of the worst games of basketball I have ever seen against Miami and flame out like it’s nobody’s business.

    I think we have an excellent shot against either VT or Maryland, but if we draw UNC, we’re toast. If we draw Duke or Wake, we have a decent enough chance to advance, though I fully expect coach K to win this thing this year.

  15. redfred2 03/05/2009 at 8:48 PM #

    “(2) 7 ACC wins would be more than Herb Sendek ever got until his 6th year”

    I’m sorry, but if they’d just do that, win seven games in YEAR THREE, I wouldn’t care if they forfeited the rest of the way on out.

    I’m only kidding of course, but I was totally unaware of that single ^stat that alpha just dropped. Very, VERY, interesting indeed.

    Also, I’d love to see Fells able to play in his final regular season game in the ACC. Any recent updates on that?

  16. Alpha Wolf 03/05/2009 at 9:40 PM #

    Second Year: we play one of the worst games of basketball I haveh ever seen against Miami and flame out like it’s nobody’s business.

    That team was done in the middle of February. I doubt John Wooden, Jim Valvano or Jesus Himself could have gotten them on the same page for forty minutes.

    This year it will be interesting (to say the least) to see how well they come out and play against two teams that beat them that they should have earned W’s against. I am hopeful that in the first round they show the same resilience that they did against BC last night. I will be aghast if they come out and play as they did against Maryland a few days before that.

  17. 61Packer 03/05/2009 at 9:41 PM #

    Let me get this straight. If we win Saturday at Miami, then we’ll play ACC tourney noon games Thursday and possibly on Friday, and the Friday game will probably be vs UNC. Since I can’t get off work and have no tv available, I’ll miss seeing the afternoon games. But if we lose Saturday at Miami, then I’ll be able to see us play on Thursday night and possibly on Friday night, and we’ll avoid facing UNC early on.

    What I hope will happen is that we beat Miami and get momentum for the tourney. We owe the Gobblers and Twerps, and if we’re going to beat the Holes, Friday at high noon would be the best chance to pull off the kind of stunner that last-place Wake did in the 1973 tourney opener when they ousted UNC.

    What I think will happen, though, will be an ugly loss Saturday, followed by a complete turnaround vs Maryland, sending them to the NIT and raising the Lowe Lovers’ hopes. But then on Friday night, another complete turnaround. Blue reality will come crashing down on Wolfpack Nation again, like it has for the past two decades, and we’ll finish yet another lackluster season, at 17-14, prompting Jed to crawl out from under the bleachers and declare, once again, that the program is headed in the right direction.

    I can hardly wait until next season’s recurring nightmare starts all over again.

  18. coppertop 03/05/2009 at 9:47 PM #

    Articles like this is what keeps me coming back to this site… sometimes multiple times a day! 🙂

    Fortunately I am off all day Friday and can watch all the games then.

    I think it is important to realize that while last year may not have lived up to expectations that this year we have shown considerable improvement and solid play from a lot of the junior guys. I think ya’ll are right in that Lowe is learning how to coach in college on the fly and while Harris, and Towe are helping, it starts with the head coach.
    I hope that all pack fans will give at least 4-5 years to judge lowe before questioning his creditability.

  19. redfred2 03/05/2009 at 9:49 PM #

    So, this is a nightmare huh? Is this a sudden nightmare, say of the three year variety, were you possibly all fine and dandy up until then?

    Just checking.

  20. PackWolf7 03/05/2009 at 10:02 PM #

    Alpha Wolf….let’s dismiss any notion that the Pack is on the bubble for an NCAA birth with a run “to” the ACC Championship game (your post 12:51 PM). It’s just not going to happen. The Pack needs to WIN the tournament to get a birth, by fluke, and by default. Sure, I’m rooting for them to run the table, but heck, the talent effort and attitude (inconsistency personafied) is just not there. Plus, strength of schedule is problematic and, unfortunately, consistent for this program. The schedule plain sucks. No questions asked here. It has been that way for way too many tiresome years. The committee will look once, and then turn their laughing heads. NIT is a possibility, and I hope the Pack gets there, but NCAA is a limo stretch, and then some. Go Pack!

  21. choppack1 03/05/2009 at 10:25 PM #

    “Alpha Wolf….let’s dismiss any notion that the Pack is on the bubble for an NCAA birth with a run “to” the ACC Championship game (your post 12:51 PM). It’s just not going to happen. The Pack needs to WIN the tournament to get a birth, by fluke, and by default.”

    I’d have to agree w/ Alpha – if we win our next 4 games, we’d at least be considered. A lot of other factors would have to fall in our favor, but we’d have some quality wins (against at least one bubble team, either the No 2 or No 1 seed, another NCAA team and a loss in the championship game.) I imagine that our RPI would look allright at that point as would our SOS.

    I guess I have to hope for us to play UNC in 2nd round rather than 4th…of course, they’d also have 2 rounds to lose a game or a key player or too as well.

    Unfortunately, I think Fells injury may just be a key factor in keeping us from doing much damage.

  22. choppack1 03/05/2009 at 10:40 PM #

    Actually looking at the #s, I wonder if we can get the RPI, Sagarin, Pomeroy, etc low enough…We’ll see though.

  23. wufpup76 03/05/2009 at 10:41 PM #

    “I’d have to agree w/ Alpha – if we win our next 4 games, we’d at least be considered. A lot of other factors would have to fall in our favor, but we’d have some quality wins (against at least one bubble team, either the No 2 or No 1 seed, another NCAA team and a loss in the championship game.) I imagine that our RPI would look allright at that point as would our SOS.”

    ^I hope you guys are right if it does in fact work out that way, but I just don’t see it. SOS, no nonconf. wins of note, and only one ‘marquee’ victory are/would kill us (of course the marquee victory total would probably go up if we ran off some wins in the ACC tourny). And I would imagine even being considered would hinge on absolutely everything breaking perfectly.

    Either way, a win streak of 4+ would be awesome.

    How about we win 5 straight starting Saturday? 🙂

  24. VaWolf82 03/05/2009 at 11:16 PM #

    I just don’t see how we could make the NCAA Tourney without a single quality OOC win.

    You must have missed the Herb years. A small Post-it would be large enough to record five years worth of quality OOC wins.

  25. Gene 03/06/2009 at 12:03 AM #

    I’d rather we beat Miami, irregardless of who we draw in the ACC tournament. Going 7-9 and avoiding double digit conference losses, has a nice psychological feel about it.

1 2 3 4

Leave a Reply