Pack’s ACC Tourney Scenario & Commentary: Maryland or VPI

08-09 Basketball General83

Via  the Washington Times, here is the current seeding situation the Wolfpack finds itself in for next week’s ACC Tourney:

Currently, NC STATE sits at 16-12 overall, with a 6-9 conference record

  • Will be the No. 9 seed with a victory over Miami; the Wolfpack would lose all tiebreakers to both Maryland (0-1 head-to-head) and Virginia Tech (0-1 head-to-head)
  • Will be the No. 10 seed with a loss to Miami

And to review the schedule for the first two days of the tournament:

Thursday Matchups
No. 8 vs. No. 9, 12 pm
No. 5 vs. No. 12 Georgia Tech, 2:30 pm
No. 7 vs. No. 10, 7 pm
No. 6 vs. No. 11 Virginia, 9:30 pm

  • Maryland will be the No. 7 seed with a victory at Virginia OR a Virginia Tech loss to Florida State.
  • Maryland will be the No. 8 seed with a loss at Virginia AND a Virginia Tech victory against Florida State.
  • Virginia Tech will be the No. 7 seed with a victory over Florida State AND a Maryland loss at Virginia.
  • Virginia Tech will be the No. 8 seed with a loss to Florida State OR a Maryland victory at Virginia.
  • Miami Will be the No. 9 seed with a victory over NCSU.
  • Miami would be the No. 10 see with a loss to the Wolfpack.


And if State wins Thursday, Friday Matchups:
No. 1 vs. 8-9 winner, 12 pm
No. 4 vs. 5-12 winner, 2:30 pm
No. 2 vs 7-10 winner, 7 pm
No. 3 vs. 6-11 winner, 9:30 pm

Here are some of the second round possibilities:

  • Wake Forest will be the No. 2 seed with a win over Clemson and a Duke loss to North Carolina.
  • Duke will be the top seed with a win at North Carolina and a Wake Forest win over Clemson.
  • UNC will be the top seed if they beat Duke.

The following is some additional commentary and perspective:

  • NC State is locked into a first round game against wither Virginia Tech or Maryland.

  • State could finished tied with VPI and Maryland in the standings with everyone at 7-9 if VPI loses to FSU and MD loses to UVa and we beat Miam. But, among that group, we are 0-2, while VT is 1-1 and MD is 2-0. Maryland would be #7, VT #8 and NC State #9. We would play VPI in the first round.
  • Basically, VPI and Maryland are battling for 7/8 with Maryland owning the tiebreak should they tie; NC State and Miami are playing for 9/10. Those 4 play each other on Thursday in the ACCT, except we cant play Miami no matter what.
  • Best guess: (a) beat Miami, play VPI in the 8/9 game, or (b) lose to Miami, play MD in the 7/10 game.
  • With Miami losing last night, NC State vs Miami becomes a true standings game – loser is locked into the 10th position. Finishing 10th is almost better than 9th, because the 8/9 winner will be matched against UNC on Friday, while the 7/10 winneer will face Duke. We match much better with Duke than UNC. I think MD will finish 7th.

  • Having said that, I hope we beat Miami to get 7 ACC wins and finish 9th. It is much better to finish 9th, even if that means facing UNC on Friday because:
    (1) 7 ACC wins would lock up a NIT bid most likely
    (2) 7 ACC wins would be more than Herb Sendek ever got until his 6th year
    (3) Going from 4 to 7 ACC wins is a very nice improvement
    (4) 7 ACC wins doesn’t make us a bubble team. The ONLY way to make the NCAAT is to win the ACCT. I think its better to play UNC on Day 2 than Day 4 to do that.

  • I’d probably rather play Maryland than VPI on Friday (I think VPI is better), but we have shown we can beat VPI.
  • Unless we suddenly get the best officiated game in the history of our program, I think the only way we win the ACCT is if someone else beats the Holes for us. Six teams in the league are probably capable of beating them – MD, BC, Miami, Wake, VPI, FSU – as their Achilles’ heel is an athletic, high-scoring point or combo guard. That’s what beats UNC. We don’t have that, and neither does Duke or Clemson. I think UNC is 80% likely to win the ACCT, but if they lose I expect it will be to FSU in the semis.
08-09 Basketball General

83 Responses to Pack’s ACC Tourney Scenario & Commentary: Maryland or VPI

  1. Ed89 03/05/2009 at 12:04 PM #

    I like either of our matchups for next Thursday – esp. another shot at Maryland or Va. Tech, but I’d rather play the #2 seed on Friday rather than the #1 seed (most likely UNC). You gotta beat ’em all to win it, so bring on the #1 seed.

  2. YANCSSB 03/05/2009 at 12:06 PM #

    Rooting for a rematch with Wake. I’d hate to finish 10th in the league, but if it means drawing Wake, I’m all for it.

  3. RSP123 03/05/2009 at 12:11 PM #

    Interesting. I know there is discussion about “is it better for us to win or lose” against Miami, but from my point of view I want to win each one. A win Saturday, I think assures us of a NIT bid and a sign of continued improvement and momentum going into the conference tournament. As for possibly having to play UNC in the 2nd Round – so be it; we have to beat them anyway. And, who knows, with a win in Thursday’s game – we will be loose and the Holes might come out of the gate slow and tight. Not likely, but possible. Bottom line, take each opportunity and play the best you can to give yourself a chance to win. Now, of course, if Fells is not 100% or able to go – then all bets are off! Go Pack!

  4. BJD95 03/05/2009 at 12:23 PM #

    It’s better to win, but the better ACCT draw is a nice consolation prize if we do lose on Saturday.

    God, how I would hate to lose to the Holes a third time. And if we play them on short rest, there is real potential for a 30-point blowout, too.

  5. YANCSSB 03/05/2009 at 12:25 PM #

    # I’d probably rather play Maryland than VPI on Friday (I think VPI is better), but we have shown we can beat VPI.

    If we’ve shown that we can beat VT, then shouldn’t we want to face them again? And don’t you mean Thursday, not Friday?

  6. RickJ 03/05/2009 at 12:41 PM #

    “The ONLY way to make the NCAAT is to win the ACCT.”

    This is probably correct but if we end the season with a win over Miami then beat Maryland, UNC & Clemson in the tourney before losing to Duke in the finals, I would not bet the farm we wouldn’t make the NCAA’s. Of course the odds of the previous scenario are probably 10,000 to 1.

  7. Alpha Wolf 03/05/2009 at 12:44 PM #

    IF we win on Saturday AND we go to the ACCT Championship game we would have pretty decent case for the NCAA Committee. It would be a pretty substantial run through other NCAA hopefuls, after all.

  8. ppack3 03/05/2009 at 12:45 PM #

    WIN WIN WIN! The rest takes care of itself. I don’t want to have to face UMD or VPI whilst holding my breath and hoping we don’t get shut out of the NIT. Beat Miami, keep up the momentum. Confidence breeds success. Go Pack!

  9. Rochester 03/05/2009 at 12:45 PM #

    I’d love to see us beat Maryland and hit a 3-ball at the buzzer to rub it in over them. Assuming we decide to show up for the game, I mean.

  10. wufpup76 03/05/2009 at 12:46 PM #

    “The ONLY way to make the NCAAT is to win the ACCT. I think its better to play UNC on Day 2 than Day 4 to do that.”

    ^Concur. We would have beaten most of the teams in the nation with our level of play on that Sunday in 2007 even after 3 games in 3 days. Unfortunately for us, we were running on fumes using a 7 man rotation and we ran into one of the more talented teams in the nation at that time. Who knows how much difference playing them on Day 2 instead of Day 4 might have made – maybe none … but I would’ve been very interested to see.

    I definitely want us to win Saturday, but am with YANCSSB in hopefully seeing Wake again at some point. I feel very good about our chances of beating them should we see them again. Of course, a healthy Fells would certainly help.

    Also, I know we can beat either Maryland or VaTech next Thursday – that’s encouraging … but they could beat us as well. I’ve read in a few places where the Maryland fans think they are clearly better than State or Miami, and so long as they beat Virginia this Saturday they would stand a good chance of winning against either State or Miami on Thursday to clinch an at large selection.

    I’m not buying that … that team is not “clearly better” than anyone. Gary Williams and the Terps deserve a lot of credit for getting as much out of that team as they have, but assuming a victory against anyone is pretty foolhardy in my opinion. A little more inspired play, keying on Vasquez, and eliminating bad turnovers and we probably win going away last Sunday night.

    Oh well, it’s in the past.

    I look forward to Saturday and to whoever we play a week from today (unbelievable we’re already at this point). No matter what happens on Saturday, I feel pretty good as the staff and team pulled together last night for a good win with little to play for other than themselves and a potential spot in the NIT. Progress has undeniably been made over last season (yes, still LOTS of room for improvement) and the awful aftertaste of the Maryland game is gone. No quitting this season … good job.

    Go Pack

  11. YANCSSB 03/05/2009 at 12:46 PM #

    I just don’t see how we could make the NCAA Tourney without a single quality OOC win. Not at 7-9 in the conference.

  12. zahadum 03/05/2009 at 12:51 PM #

    Tough call. Agreed with all the points made, but I’d much rather play the 7 pm game than the noon one. We have a history of not doing well with those.

  13. Alpha Wolf 03/05/2009 at 12:51 PM #

    ^ True, but if State went to the title game, they would finish 10-10 worst case and would be 8-4 in their last twelve game and 8-2 in their last ten…plus other ACC teams would have excused themselves from the conversation.

    Longest of longshots? Definitely. But it’s theoretically possible.

  14. wufpup76 03/05/2009 at 12:53 PM #

    “I’d love to see us beat Maryland and hit a 3-ball at the buzzer to rub it in over them. Assuming we decide to show up for the game, I mean.”

    Maybe we could also find Brian Bersticker, tape him to the goalpost and dunk in his face while holding our n*ts while we’re at it. I swear to God I would attack that guy if I ever saw him.

  15. ppack3 03/05/2009 at 1:08 PM #

    With a ‘miracle’ run in the ACCT, the last 10-12 games on our resume would be extremely attractive to the selection committee. It may not be enough, but they have put more emphasis, of late, on the conference tournaments, and have always looked at how a team has fared towards the end of the season. I felt some magic two years ago. I want to take that Cinderella role again. We could make a season out of this yet.
    V, be with us. Yow, be with us. Tournament Coach Lowe, be with us. Survive and Advance. Go Pack.

  16. wufpup76 03/05/2009 at 1:26 PM #

    Did something happen to the font size, or am I just imagining things?

  17. Alpha Wolf 03/05/2009 at 1:28 PM #

    ^ No, per Jeff’s request (as well as a couple of you who took the time to email) I enlarged it about 15%.

  18. primacyone 03/05/2009 at 1:42 PM #

    I’d rather go 2-1 over the next 3 games versus 1-2.

  19. Pack Leader 03/05/2009 at 2:09 PM #

    If we win the first day of the tourney i honestly believe we make it to the final day. other than unc i dont see one team that we dont have a good shot at beating. Sid always brings his best in the tourney so it will be interesting to see what kind of tricks he has up his sleeve. Miami is a big game as well for us in terms of momentum for us. There hasnt been a game in almost 2 months where i felt we couldnt compete with the compition. In the last 10 years there has been 3 teams who have consistanly played well in the ACC tourney……. UNC Duke & state. Who knows if the heels can get knocked off theres not a team standing in our way execpt ourselfs….

  20. wpackman33 03/05/2009 at 2:33 PM #

    I hate to be a negative nancy, but lets not get carried away. The way people are talking, the cart is at our destination and the horse isn’t even out of the stable. Look, its great to get pumped up about things but we all have to remember to take it one game at a time, starting with Miami on saturday. Honestly, who cares right now about facing UNC in the second round or the finals, we might not even get there.
    Remember just a week or so ago after beating UVA and playing well against UNC, we were talking about beating Wake and rolling through our last 4 regular season games. Well, things have sort of changed.
    All it takes is for us to lay an egg like we did against Maryland and we’re through.

    Let’s just take things one game at a time. Let’s go down to Miami and smoke ’em.

    Whether we face VPI or Maryland in that first round is irrelevent to some degree. We need to come out with the most intensity we’ve ever played with and take it to ’em. Last night showed me something about this team. If they all just play like it’s their last game, we’ll be in business.

    GO PACK!!!!

  21. bradleyb123 03/05/2009 at 2:33 PM #

    “With Miami losing last night, NC State vs Miami becomes a true standings game – loser is locked into the 10th position. Finishing 10th is almost better than 9th, because the 8/9 winner will be matched against UNC on Friday, while the 7/10 winneer will face Duke. We match much better with Duke than UNC. I think MD will finish 7th.”

    I think there’s a GREAT chance that Wake gets the #2 seed, not Duke. They can beat Clemson in Winston-Salem (Wake is TOUGH at home), and Carolina will probably beat Duke. That puts Wake in the #2 slot as they would win the tie-breaker over Duke by virtue of beating Carolina once.

    I’m not pulling for us to lose to Miami, but I would MUCH rather play Wake on Friday than Carolina. We’d have a better chance of winning, plus we wouldn’t have to face Carolina until Sunday, which means two teams get cracks at eliminating the Heels for us before the championship game.

    Is it me, or is it strange that, given the way we played a good part of the season, that we are somewhat hopeful of making an ACCT run? I mean, there was a time when I wondered if we could win more than a couple of ACC games. Nice turnaround, Pack!!!

  22. Alpha Wolf 03/05/2009 at 3:09 PM #

    wpackman33, the players need to have the “one game at a time” attitude, but as fans we have no such constraints. Our talk has no effect on the future record of our favorite hoops team.

  23. wpackman33 03/05/2009 at 3:25 PM #

    I know alpha, and i totally understand because i’m a huge fan too. I just want us to keep a level-headed, realistic type mindset. Like i said about a few weeks ago. Before the Wake game, we were all about running the table and getting in to the NCAAT, but after the wake loss and a bad loss to Maryland, we were talking like we were going to lose the rest of our games.
    I don’t know, maybe its just me, but to some degree i’d like to be as realistic as possible, maybe even a touch pessemistic. That way you are pleasently surprised sometimes 🙂 Which i hope is the case this weekend.

    Nevertheless, I hope the pack runs the table and has a cinderella season again. I was born in ’83 in June so i technically missed our last championship. But my wife and i are expecting our first child any day now so hopefully he’ll bring a little wolfpack magic in 2009.

  24. Greywolf 03/05/2009 at 3:31 PM #

    ^ “Our talk has no effect on the future record of our favorite hoops team.”

    Now there’s something to be grateful for. 😉

  25. tcthdi-tgsf-twhwtnc 03/05/2009 at 3:35 PM #

    #9 seed will mean long lunches on Thursday and possibly Friday. I agree that just win and everything else takes care of itself.

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