Revisiting Last February’s Analysis

We will come back to this once the 2008-09 season is completely over. But I think it’s a good time to look back at this entry from last February, after a particularly brutal loss to Boston College. Many of our current commenters posted thoughts on that thread. Now that a little over a year has passed – how do you feel?

On the positive side, I think Lowe at least partway met the three criteria I laid out at the end of the post. We are better than last year, and the effort has at least improved. But not completely – we are not even in the NCAAT bubble discussion (NIT-ology has us on the wrong side of the NIT bubble this week). Our defensive effort is inconsistent at best. The 2009 recruiting class is good, but not Top Ten without Wall or Cousins – and we have very little chance of landing either.

Perhaps the most disturbing part of the re-read was the discussion of adjustments/moves/lessons happening in mid-February that needed to happen in mid-December. That seems to have repeated itself, and is a giant red flag, at least to me.

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

07-08 Basketball 08-09 Basketball Flashback General NCS Basketball Sidney Lowe

72 Responses to Revisiting Last February’s Analysis

  1. wufpup76 03/03/2009 at 3:16 PM #

    A little off topic, but you can definitely see some parallels to N.C. State …

    rush the court has a fascinating take on the situation at UK, aside from the kinda silly Rick Pitino part: http://rushthecourt.net/2009/03/02/state-of-the-big-blue-nation-mood-indigo/

  2. wufpup76 03/03/2009 at 3:18 PM #

    “So since Sid is now 0-4 against Maryland, should his last name now be Llllowe, ala Phillllip?”

    Also no victories over either BC or Clemson … this can not change fast enough if it’s going to. Got another shot at BC tomorrow night – here’s hoping for the best.

    Go Pack

  3. JeremyH 03/03/2009 at 3:29 PM #

    ummmm…. I’m beginning to question the issue of “we’re prepared” “didn’t play hard” “no heart” kind of criticisms, because sometimes you just get beat. You get beat by a better team. How many close games have we lost because of a guard, a little beyond normal three point shot range, putting in the dagger? Too many. These guys are playing better, but they’re just limited in being able to stop quicker teams with reasonable talent at the point and shooting guard positions. Florida, Marquette, Davidson, BC, Wake, UNC, Duke… next year we will be closer to having a team with the attributes that basketball players are supposed to have to compete at this level. More shooting, slashing, ball handing. I’ll still cheer them on, but this season is getting old fast.

  4. ncsslim 03/03/2009 at 3:29 PM #

    I don’t remotely see this (even qualified) optimism for the future. Pure and simple, we got beat Sunday by a one man team in a game that was very important for the year and overall momentum of the program. We stunk it up pure and simple. How you build on that is beyond me. Costner is pretty much the only ACC caliber talent on the team and he seems to be a lost cause (forgive me, Tracy, but I wish you had another couple of inches for your game; admittedly you do look damn good in stretches, however). Maybe the talent level will change slightly next year, but the incoming players will probably be too young (given their projected capabilities) to make a significant immediate impact on the overall product.

    What really burns me is that in this part of the country, tourney time is the highlight of the sports year, and once again we are solidly on the outside looking in. The excitement of the dance, that tired ass CBS theme song, the crowded TV schedules of the first two weekends, etc, is what college bball fans live for and NC State needs to be there each and every year. I don’t for one second long for the return of the impending implosion of the Sendek coached teams; I said at the time that I’d rather cancel a couple of seasons than continue that torture. Apparently someone was listening. We deserve better.

  5. VaWolf82 03/03/2009 at 3:37 PM #

    This team had a much higher ceiling, as they exhibited during the greater part of the month of February.

    When? State had a good win against WF and then wins against the bottom two teams in the conference. People started jumping to conclusions, but the ceiling was never really raised.

    Back in Dec, BJD posted an entry to give up any hopes of this team being good enough to make the NCAAT. Even with the win against WF, I saw no reason to doubt BJD’s assessment.

  6. wufpup76 03/03/2009 at 4:02 PM #

    ^^^That’s fair Jeremy, and for the most part I agree.

    The Maryland game was a definite exception though. I was there and it looked and felt for all the world just like last season. Rolling over …

  7. GAWolf 03/03/2009 at 4:03 PM #

    Clarksa brings up a good point. I wrote about it earlier and deleted it because I didn’t want this to get completely into another version of the great Herb debate. However, the truth of the matter is that our previous coach did in fact learn on the job here. AND he learned a log of lessons from major mistakes. Unfortunately a lot of those mistakes were deemed unforgivable minus extraordinary wins which never came. He did, however, apply those lessons to his new job and has as a result experienced some success there. Good for him.

    I also think that Lowe is showing marked improvement. We don’t call TO’s before the ball gets over half court, time outs for substitutions, defensive adjustments, etc. Hopefully when he gets a floor general he can stop directing traffic on the court from the bench. Then he can truly focus on other things, hopefully. He’s definitely passionate and involved and active. It will take time for him to develop enough confidence in his position to really ride the refs, but I’m sure he’ll get there. He’s recruiting well.

    There’s hope here.

  8. Texpack 03/03/2009 at 4:34 PM #

    ^^Wolfonthehill
    The reasons it took so long for Tracy Smith to log major minutes this year are that he is a poor defensive player and he was even more of a black hole than he is now. I really like his effort on the offensive boards and he is a finisher, but he needs to pick it up on the defensive end, learn when not to force it against double teams, and work seriously on his free throw shooting. He leaves 3-5 ppg on the table due to poor free throw shooting. (I have just described our most consistent offensive threat over the past month.)

    I really hate the fact that Costner has gone into a funk again. His game has never developed significantly beyond where it was his freshman year.

    I very much agree that JT and CJ provide a lot more effort and energy in the lineup than Fells.

    The one thing Sidney was not able to do this year was acknowledge that this season was the preseason for 2009-2010. Coach K took some big time whippings shortly after he took over by playing his younger guys at the expense of winning now. I think Sidney did a lite version of that with the extended bench and then must have started to think that the schedule down the stretch was favorable enough to try to catch lightning in a bottle.

    I hate the fact that a guy who works as hard as McCauley and who genuinely seems to care night after night will leave NC State without having experienced any more success than he has.

  9. branjawn 03/03/2009 at 4:58 PM #

    Not trying to hijack thread, but recent news out of Tampa is that the search for Corey Smith has been called off. What a sad day…

  10. dtwncsu 03/03/2009 at 5:04 PM #

    Our team is capable of putting up good numbers if they play hard. Brandon has to be one of the most disappointing players in NC State history. If he would play hard for twenty minutes every game we would a couple of more wins. He should have been benched to let him see how his play affects the team. Let the players who put in hard effort play and the rest watch.

  11. Wolfpack_1995 03/03/2009 at 5:08 PM #

    Personally another season IMO has been sabotaged by the weak effort of our big 3(Fells, BC, and Ben).

    If these three brought any kinda of energy to the game like a real player should we would be much better off.

    I hope the the big 3 can pull things together to make it a more memorable season then last year’s train wreck. However I just have this bad feeling that these guys could care less.

    We’ll only go so far this year off of the big 3.

    Sid is at their mercy in some sadistic way.

    Too bad he did not cut his losses when he first signed on to coach.

    Live and learn Sid.

    I can’t place as much blame on Sid for the past two seasons after seeing the lack of effort/desire by the players he decided to keep on the roster.

    As posted by others, Sid has learned a valuable lesson while basically learning on the job like Sendek did.

    Once the big 3 are gone I say good riddance.

  12. txpack 03/03/2009 at 5:26 PM #

    We have seen progress this year. And I have no doubt on Lowe’s love to our school.

    However,as many of you have observered, we do not have a ACC point guard. Is really that hard for Sid to find a good PG? Towe was a former PG also. I though they should have taken care of PG position as soon as they got the job.

  13. JeremyH 03/03/2009 at 5:27 PM #

    branjawn, that is very sad news. try and put yourself in their families’ shoes when they got that news, and remember this kind of thing can happen to anyone, and each day should be treated as a gift.

  14. john of sparta 03/03/2009 at 5:39 PM #

    JH and branjawn…i agree.

  15. ldr of the pk 75 03/03/2009 at 6:02 PM #

    Hold that re-visit to use again next March. This team and the overall atheletic department, sans Football, are of no consequence to anyone keeping score in the ACC or Nationally.

    Basketball, for us, is done for the year, decade, quarter century.

    On another hi-lite, just saw the National Baseball rankings, we don’t even rate a vote down at about 64th place, behind Elon even. Glad I’ve got real things to worry about like a 401k program shot to hell, and the bright prospects for the economy. It’s time for that evening Valium.

  16. ldr of the pk 75 03/03/2009 at 6:06 PM #

    Also meant to lament the sad, sad, news of Corey Smith and the other two. Reality like this makes the fever pitch of disgust with the state of atheletics seem trivial. Prayers to the families.

  17. BAC79 03/03/2009 at 6:25 PM #

    My assessment of this year so far is and has been, this is a team of underachievers. How can you explain that we have played some great basketball for 20-30 minutes a game? Then it seems like a switch is turned off and our guys act like they have never played before.

    I also continue to believe that despite Sid’s making progress he still has player management issues. All of us can observe players taking plays off and in some games acting like they really don’t give a rats behind on that particular night. When that happens, those players should be benched. There is no excuse for any player not to give it 100% all of the time. I would rather have a lesser talented player on the court who gives it his all than a more talented player loafing down the court on defense.

    Lastly, what happened to fundamentals? Why do we consistently see players not blocking out, making lazy passes, not getting back on defense. This is stuff you learn at basketball camp in the 6th grade. We need an assistant coach who concentrates on the fundamentals of the game.

    One last point. I still do not believe that the players know what is expected of them and what the consequences are if those expectations are not met. Why do I believe this? Players who continue to make the same mistakes over and over again continue to log a lot of minutes over other players who have been left out of the rotation.

    At the end of next year, a serious assessment of the program is in order. Unfortunately, we do not have anyone competent in our athletic program to make such an assessment.

    Such is the life of a Wolfpack fan.

  18. 61Packer 03/03/2009 at 7:07 PM #

    “At the end of next year, a serious assessment of the program is in order. Unfortunately, we do not have anyone competent in our athletic program to make such an assessment.
    Such is the life of a Wolfpack fan.”

    BAC79’s above assment, especially the last two sentences, is about as accurate an assessment of Wolfpack basketball as you’ll find on here. Everything in Wolfpack basketball since about 1990 always comes down to one thing and one thing only- (wait until) NEXT YEAR.

    When I jumped on the “lifetime seats” bandwagon, I dreaded that I might not outlive the duration of those LTR seats because I was about 50 at the time. Now, however, maybe it’s my best way out of this mess. And if either of my kids is reading this, not to worry. I promise not to will them to you.

  19. packalum44 03/03/2009 at 8:09 PM #

    Lowe has shown me that he will be an average coach at best and maybe return NC State to the bubble-team mediocrity that defined the program during the Sendek years. I thought we ran out Sendek so we could find someone to return us to greatness…err at the least be a bubble team that beats UNC/Duke more than once in a blue moon e.g. MD. Year 3 comes and goes and we improve from being the worst team in the ACC to not being the worst team. Year 4 approaches and the fans have HOPE that Lorenzo Brown is going to push us over the NCAA bubble…I mean leap-frog us over being a bubble team into a legitimate tournament team. Poor guy.

    I love Lowe as a player and as a part of history but I have seen no evidence of him being the guy we were looking for. We’ve had one good win all season.

  20. turnoffthetv 03/03/2009 at 8:25 PM #

    “Last night was a microcosm of the many problems within the program. Guys take plays, or even whole games off. Sid shakes his head in frustration (Note to Sid – that won’t accomplish squat) – he doesn’t seem to know what to do. I don’t know if it’s a question of preparation, motivation, or both. But it is Sid’s job to fix it. And it sucks to waste an entire (once promising) season because our coach isn’t ready and is learning on the job.”

    This paragraph out of last year’s write-off sounds so much like this year. About guys taking plays off or entire games off. Luckily this year there have been a few bench guys when our starters weren’t getting it done to pick up the slack. In particular, Dennis and CJ, although they took the game off against the terps sunday, have been a pleasant surprise and a major reason why we have won 5 games in the ACC thusfar. And dont let me forget about Javi who has become a starter and has improved(I cant believe where he has come from since several games ago.)Dont let me leave out Tracy either who is establishing himself as a force to be reckoned with in the post.

    This team most of the year has impressed me yet frustrated the Sh** out of me in their ability to play inconsistently individually but find some cohesiveness and consistency as a UNIT(See-one player takes the night off and someone else picks up the slack.) But sooner or later this type of stuff catches up with you. Where was CJ and Dennis and Farnold coming off the bench Sunday? I mean guys start the game and Log plenty of minutes for a reason. They are expected and/or have the potential to be our pinnacle competitors.

    As for the BIG 3: McCauley- not a bad showing this year. Fells –just inconsistent and Lazy. Costner-I won’t go there.

    This season is much like last year except for the Peaks and Valleys showing their faces at different times.

  21. wufpup76 03/03/2009 at 8:28 PM #

    Well here we go … Duke more or less assured a victory tonight.

    Noles playing well up by 3 early and bam – technical foul on Leonard Hamilton for daring to complain about Duke’s myriad illegal screens.

    It might have actually worked for one posession though, as the very next call was an illegal screen on Duke … that was funny.

    I’m sure Emperor Palpatine – err, Coach K will correct his Imperial Guard … I mean his refs at halftime and Duke will pull away to win by 20.

  22. Wulfpack 03/03/2009 at 8:28 PM #

    I’m willing to let the season come to a close before I come to any kind of assessment of the program. There’s plenty of time left for a lot of good to happen. If we can win our first round game, we earn another shot at one of our blue counterparts. And we will be playing in some post-season tourney somewhere.

    However, as it currently stands, I would say we have improved marginally from last year to this year. Maybe that’s all that we should expect. But if this “marginal” improvement is any indication of what to expect over the coming years, it may well be somewhere around 2014 until we’re worth a hill of beans. Maybe by that time TOB will have won an ACC Championship.

    I’m not expecting Sid to work miracles. I understand the issues surrounding the program. I understand the competition is brutal. I understand he is new to this. But damn, these past three years have been disappointing to say the least.

  23. wufpup76 03/03/2009 at 8:56 PM #

    “I’m not expecting Sid to work miracles. I understand the issues surrounding the program. I understand the competition is brutal. I understand he is new to this. But damn, these past three years have been disappointing to say the least.”

    ^Good summary.

    Apparently a league memo really did go out b/c there were a ton of offensive fouls called in the first half of that Duke-FSU game – most of them of the illegal screen variety. Noles looking sharp so far.

    In what would be a huge upset, Indiana is within 2 of Michigan St. with 45 seconds to play …

  24. kyjelly 03/03/2009 at 9:16 PM #

    A glimmer and hint of hope for a little bit. I can not get pumped up with another 10th place finish.
    I love our school and hoped Sid would work out,but it is clear it is not going to happen. Another year like this and we will be set back another 5 years.

  25. wufpup76 03/03/2009 at 9:39 PM #

    The bailout fouls have started for Duke with over 6 minutes left … They’ll win by 10+

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