Giglio Previews 2009-10 ACC (Updated 3/25)

On the heels of this fantastic and comprehensive entry, we get more great work looking to next season from J.P. Giglio at the N&O’s ACCNow. I wouldn’t even know how to begin breaking down the rosters, but he does a great job projecting early departures and new player rotations. Kudos to him for going on record like this!

Where is the Pack? 9th:

9. N.C. State
1. Javi Gonzalez, 5-11, jr.
2. Lorenzo Brown, 6-4, fr.
3. C.J. Williams, 6-5, so.
4. Richard Howell, 6-7, fr.
5. Tracy Smith, 6-8, jr.

We’ve got a lot of versatile parts – note how I didn’t use ‘interchangable’ – for example, Julius Mays (6-2, so.) could start in the backcourt and Dennis Horner (6-8, sr.) could start for Williams.

Pre-summer thought: It is year 4 for Sidney Lowe and, for better or worse, it’s his roster with no more holdovers. Lorenzo Brown and Ricahrd Howell better be his Johnny Dawkins and Mark Alarie (the recruiting class that saved Coach K) or the forecast doesn’t look promising for a year five.

As we noted in the comments section of another entry – every team in the Atlantic Coast Conference has made at least one NCAA Tournament appearance in the last three seasons since Lowe was announced as coach.

Wednesday morning brought us more attention on the Wolfpack Basketball program as Ken Tysiac offered offseason improvement plans for the Wolfpack.

C Tracy Smith: A jump shot. If Smith can learn to score on 12- to 14-foot jumpers rather than just with his back to the basket, he will be much more effective in the post. He ought to particularly work on the same baseline shot McCauley developed last season.

F Dennis Horner: Nerves of steel. Horner was one of N.C. State’s best free throw shooters until the closing minutes of tight games. As a potential starter, he will be in position to shoot more key free throws next season.

G C.J. Williams: A pull-up jumper. Williams improved immensely as a catch-and-shoot scorer last season as a freshman. The next step will be to develop as a slasher, and a pull-up jump shot will help him do that.

F Johnny Thomas: A baseline game. Thomas, who’s N.C. State’s best athlete, has an opportunity to gain huge minutes next season and stands to benefit most from the departures of Costner and Ferguson. He isn’t much of a scorer, though, and could make a huge impact if he can score on baseline drives and jump shots.

G Javi Gonzalez, G Farnold Degand, G Julius Mays: Consistency. At their best, any one of these players is capable of being an ACC-caliber point guard. Problem is, not a single one of these guys stays at his best for any appreciable length of time. Coach Sidney Lowe would love for one of them to seize the reigns this summer.

G Lorenzo Brown, F Richard Howell, G Scott Wood, F Josh Davis: Maturity beyond their years. At least two of N.C. State’s freshmen are going to have to contribute immediately. Brown and Howell in particular need to be ready for vital roles if this team is to have any chance of reaching postseason play.

Coach Sidney Lowe: A new plan. Whatever success N.C. State had last season came as a result of Lowe’s introducing a big lineup with Smith, Costner and McCauley on the floor early in ACC play. The Wolfpack doesn’t have the bodies up front to play big anymore.

Update
Dave Telep of Scout.com was on 850 this morning and gave a good overview of recruiting for the Wolfpack, with his thoughts on John Wall, C.J. Leslie and Seth Curry. Well worth the time to listen.

3/25 Update
Here is State’s 2009-2010 BB schedule combined with Giglio’s predictions

09-10-bb-schedule

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

09-10 Basketball Basketball Recruiting General Sidney Lowe

122 Responses to Giglio Previews 2009-10 ACC (Updated 3/25)

  1. chuck 03/25/2009 at 1:30 PM #

    ^
    That’s a hilarious analogy, co89.

  2. pakfanistan 03/25/2009 at 1:31 PM #

    I understand the rampant pessimism. I think there’s a strong chance that next years team won’t win many games. I also think, however, that the hysteria is a little out of control.

    Face facts, Lowe isn’t getting fired this off season or any time next season. The wailing and gnashing of teeth to have him replaced isn’t going to accomplish anything.

    Also, Lowe can show significant improvement without us necessarily winning more games next season than we did this season (although I think we will).

    Virginia Tech and Boston College both compete for the middle of the pack spots without killer recruiting. If Lowe can point to some progress next year, like this year, recruiting should pick up. We have a really strong class for ’09, and who knows what might happen in ’10.

    I just don’t see the point of completely crapping the bed. We had no ball handlers in ’06/’07. If you exclude the post season, we were a really terrible team. The run at the end is the only thing that makes people think there was a drop off between Lowe’s first year and his second year. His first year we were 15-14 going into the ACC tournament with a 5-11 record. His second year, 15-15 with a 4-12 record, but had been 4-4 at the mid-way point.

    The ’07/’08 team was a good, if inconsistent, team until things fell apart at the end. Yes, they had a couple of wtf losses to ECU and UNO, but they also had great wins over elite eight bound Davidson, sweet 16 bound Villanova, 2nd round Miami. That’s not coincidence, it’s as good a sign for Lowe as the team falling apart was a bad sign.

    This years team basically met expectations. Actually exceeded in some regards, considering we lost our leading two leading scorers and leading rebounder. Yet, somehow, the offense was better and rebounding was better. That’s a good sign.

    Next year, we’ll be undersized but overall more athletic.

    Offensively, we should be better at three out of five positions than we were in ’08 and ’09. Believe it or not, but Tracy Smith’s offensive numbers are better than Hickson’s. Defensively, he’s not close, but that’s what coaching is for.

    And really, that’s my point. I’m not saying, “WTNY!” because I expect us to be awesome. I am saying, let’s see if this staff can make the adjustments that are so obvious to anyone watching the games. Previous trends point to modest improvements in coaching next year. Maybe we get more, which would be great, but maybe we get less. If we get more, we make a decision whether we want to stick it out. If we get less, it’s time to cut our losses.

    I now return you to your regular wailing and gnashing of teeth.

  3. wolfmans brother. 03/25/2009 at 1:38 PM #

    Despite everything, I still believe that this is an extremely desirable position for a high-level coach with a high-level ego, which would mean most good coaches.
    Whether or not it is more desirable now than before, I don’t know, but I don’t think that our reputation has taken such a hit as to render the position unattractive.

    I hope that we don’t have to find out. I hope that next year is miraculous. The problem is that it will have to be just that. Because even if Sid hits his stride next year and becomes the best Coach since sliced bread, the cards will be extremely stacked against him due to a very suspect roster….largely of his own making. Who knows, honestly. Maybe he pulls it off.

  4. Noah 03/25/2009 at 1:40 PM #

    Face facts, Lowe isn’t getting fired this off season or any time next season.

    I don’t think you’re correct…unless you are implying that we’ll be drastically improved and will remove Lowe from the hot-seat altogether.

    I’m not speculating.

    Another 3-5 win ACC season and Lowe will get fired. If he wins seven or more league games and is a bubble-team, he’s probably got a reprieve.

  5. Wolfpack_1995 03/25/2009 at 1:48 PM #

    How many excuses are we going to extend to Lowe?

    If Fowler does not come out with “vote of confidence” regarding Sid’s job status then I think something is brewing.

    I read many of the other Wolfpack boards and there seems to be no clear consensus on Sid’s status.

    Does he have a sixth year guaranteed? I don’t think so. I think it has been confirmed that TOB does.

    Maybe Fowler is refusing a “vote of confidence” in order to ignore the lunatic fringe? ;).

  6. pakfanistan 03/25/2009 at 1:49 PM #

    I don’t think you’re correct…unless you are implying that we’ll be drastically improved and will remove Lowe from the hot-seat altogether.

    I’m not speculating.

    Another 3-5 win ACC season and Lowe will get fired. If he wins seven or more league games and is a bubble-team, he’s probably got a reprieve.

    You’re saying what I’m saying. If he sucks next year, he’s gone. But until next year plays out, unless he leaves on his own, he’s not going anywhere until the offseason NEXT year.

  7. wufpup76 03/25/2009 at 1:50 PM #

    I’m in line with BJD, Alpha and Chop among others …

    There’s nothing wrong with addressing both the good and the bad … it’s kind of a smart thing to do. Hell, I’m usually optimistic (overly so) when I write a game recap, but to deny reality is more than foolhardy. I tried to be extremely fair in writing a season recap on a previous thread.

    The coaching staff and team have my full support for this off-season and for the coming season. I’ll be at the games (if I’m able) and cheering hard and hoping for some great victories and a top tier finish.

    But it is time to start proving it – and if saying that means I’m an idiot who knows nothing about the game, well then I’m glad to know at least I have some company. Company whose thoughts and opinions I respect, at that – and people whom I would assume do not fall in the “idiot/fool” category.

    (Since when did this become a place where you have to defend your stance at all costs and be called an idiot if not? Logic and facts should be plenty; not psychological rantings about how you should view the world at large. The rhetoric factor in here has gotten way out of hand. “You’re a ******* idiot if you don’t think like me!!!” To disagree is one thing; to instigate arguments and continiously flame others over petty babble is quite another.)

  8. Noah 03/25/2009 at 2:12 PM #

    If he sucks next year, he’s gone. But until next year plays out, unless he leaves on his own, he’s not going anywhere until the offseason NEXT year.

    Sorry…I misunderstood you.

  9. Gene 03/25/2009 at 2:23 PM #

    Another 3-5 win ACC season and Lowe will get fired.

    I think Lowe gets the full six years, unless we have a 2-14 season, like Ga. Tech. just had. Just my opinion, but I don’t think the boosters will push him out and Fowler will never fire anyone.

  10. JasonP 03/25/2009 at 2:47 PM #

    Lowe gets the full 6 with an NCAAT appearance next season.

    co89, the NC State bball coaching job remains one of THE premier jobs in the nation despite the ACC rank and the front office.

    What coach wouldn’t want to do battle against a couple of the best programs in a nationally prominent league on the regular? Only weak non-coaches like Barnes or slimeballs like Cal don’t.

  11. Afterglow 03/25/2009 at 3:19 PM #

    It feels at times that pessimism is be confused with realism. It’s like
    I said before, we’re all very comfortable with taking apart what went wrong with a game. How is that any different than taking apart what went wrong with a season? That at least is where I come from.

    I suppose if people want to have visions of me gnashing my teeth while I drool over my keyboard in lunatic fringe like fashion, that’s fine. But I’m actually (within the context of my day) having a wonderful time debating the very thing that I love. Now if you’ll excuse me, I need to go kill a happy, fuzzy, rabbit and then bay and wail at the full moon.

  12. Wolfpack_1995 03/25/2009 at 4:45 PM #

    “Afterglow
    March 25th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
    It feels at times that pessimism is be confused with realism.”

    Agreed. I am very passionate about Wolfpack hoops. I still feel like we are in a death spiral. Even when the plane crashes there will still be those that praise Lowe for having the plane hit the ground. Imagine that.

  13. redfred2 03/25/2009 at 5:25 PM #

    X

  14. turnoffthetv 03/25/2009 at 5:27 PM #

    “It feels at times that pessimism is be confused with realism.”

    Afterglow, That is a powerful statement right there.

  15. phillypacker 03/25/2009 at 5:32 PM #

    My starting five would be

    In an effort to be positive, given the fact that Lowe is here for at least one more, possibly three more or longer, I can see a lineup that might lose its first 10 games but would develop and become a competitive squad. It would be fun to watch because I think these guys would play their asses off. I hope Johnny Thomas might give a physical presence needed to complement Howell and Smith. Horner is not going to be a major rebounding help but could be valuable in a utility role (Please prove me wrong). 1, 2, 4 and 5 don’t look too bad.

    1 -Lo Brown/Mays (hide Javi somewhere, Degand is a distraction with his behavioral issues and his low performance so far, he has shown he is in over his head (see also Javi)
    2 -C.J. Williams/Mays /Scott Wood
    3 – Johnny Thomas/Williams/Horner/Josh Davis
    4- Richard Howell/Horner
    5 – Tracy Smith/Horner

    Since this is what we have to look forward to next year, apart from signing an extra big (doesn’t look likely). The Seth Curry deal would be dream to me. Anybody have any thoughts?

    Open up two more scholarships by getting rid of Gonzalez and Degand because they cannot handle the ball and are out of their league. You have to ride the 3 freshmen and Smith and hope that they learn quickly. I think Mays has significant growth potential, Wood is a scorer who can work his way in. Horner is a solid utility player. Smith and Howell with Horner/Thomas when they need to play big or Williams when they need to go smaller is not a terrible lineup. I do think Fells, Costner and McCauley were major underacheivers. Lowe does need to school his players and not be so in the mix during games.

  16. redfred2 03/25/2009 at 5:54 PM #

    X

  17. JeremyH 03/25/2009 at 6:02 PM #

    “I don’t care who’s wrong or right, I don’t really want to fight…anymore…(Too much talkin’ babe)”

    ^^Tina Turner got it right. I think that sums it up for me, replacing fight with suck.

  18. JeremyH 03/25/2009 at 6:06 PM #

    phillypacker: I don’t know. Javi really picked it up at the end of the season; he showed he could really run an offense, and shoot well. He is our best point guard option.

  19. redfred2 03/25/2009 at 6:10 PM #

    X

  20. redfred2 03/25/2009 at 6:18 PM #

    X

  21. JeremyH 03/25/2009 at 6:24 PM #

    Changing coaches only made sense if we were going after a proven winner, or a up-and-comer. even if Sidney brings us back to respectability, we may still be in the same boat with him that we were with Sendektus after year 10. that’s the reality. The current spiral speedup is that the silver lining used to be that at least Sid was doing great as a recruiter; now that’s gone.

  22. 61Packer 03/25/2009 at 6:56 PM #

    If Lowe wins 5 or less ACC games next season, he’s gone. I’ll buy that. However, I don’t think he’ll do that bad in the W-L column, which, sadly, seems to be more important to a lot of people than how the team plays. I think somewhere between 6 and 8 ACC wins next season will keep Lowe here, regardless of how inconsistent or bad we play as a whole. Just win about half your league games. With that outcome, I don’t see a Wolfpack official out there who will fire Lowe, at least not anytime soon. Not this bunch. They’ve accepted mediocrity as our program standard now, and as long as we strive hard to achieve that goal and occasionally get into a post-season tourney somewhere, they’re cool with that. It’s worked for two decades for them, you know, LTR $$$ and duh fuh-cilities.

    Although I’m going to swallow my pride and go one more year on my LTR basketball seats, anything short of a conference top 4 finish with this staff returning for year 5 and I’m outta here. Our goal EVERY YEAR should be winning the ACC Championship, not striving for a .500 finish. Nothing is EVER going to change here at NC State until we hit these bastards where it’ll hurt them the most- in their wallets. And I’m on the verge of doing my part.

  23. turnoffthetv 03/25/2009 at 7:06 PM #

    I love this site because more or less it takes a Realistic approach towards issues. You know Ive seen references on other sites about this is “HateFansNation”. No, This site is REAL. I see that there is a lot of time and Heart spent in these posts. The stats, links, and commentary pretty much convey reality.

    I try to Relate what is coming from my heart in every comment I make. Exception, the Drunken Rants after frustrating LOSSES. Pretty much I try to back some of my posts up with stats to back up what I am trying to say. And it can be Time-Consuming trying to research stats and generate the perfect comment for a particular issue. Some of the comments I have seen here are short and sweet yet totally insightful and not FAKE.

    The Fact is that I think that some of the most Die-Hard Fans have found a place to call HOME right here at StateFansNation.

    You know I seen an article about Jeff Capel today in the fayobserver. Oklahoma is back in the sweet 16 this year even after all the BS with Sampson just 3 years ago. Now WTF did we hang on to Les Robinson for 6 years for?. WTF was That next guy retained after his fifth season(2001) for? And I gotta say WTF retain Lowe for another season for? WTF do u give a person a 6 year contract for anyway, and particulary one with no college coaching experience, no college degree, and a proven LOSER in the NBA?

    I may eat my CROW one day but in the END I think Sidney Lowe will always be remembered as one of the greatest players for this university but it will be Overshadowed with his Sucktitude as a Coach for this University.

    Lightning Can strike Twice.

    I have officially deemed the Sidney Lowe ERA as Les Robinson ERA 2.0.

    This is not Hating this is Reality. Go check the stats for yourself.

  24. Noah 03/25/2009 at 7:16 PM #

    I keep trying to read one particular poster’s comments and all I see is a dump truck backing up to a landfill. I can *barely* make out something about how awful it was to go the NCAA tournament…but that’s gotta be static or something.

    No one would be that f-ing stupid.

  25. turnoffthetv 03/25/2009 at 7:20 PM #

    And if Fowlup doesnt have the balls to FIRE then he needs to be shown the door right now. and if the guy above him doesnt have the balls to show foulup the door, then show his A$$$$$$$ the door.ETC.etc.etc.etc.

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