Giglio Previews 2009-10 ACC (Updated 3/25)

On the heels of this fantastic and comprehensive entry, we get more great work looking to next season from J.P. Giglio at the N&O’s ACCNow. I wouldn’t even know how to begin breaking down the rosters, but he does a great job projecting early departures and new player rotations. Kudos to him for going on record like this!

Where is the Pack? 9th:

9. N.C. State
1. Javi Gonzalez, 5-11, jr.
2. Lorenzo Brown, 6-4, fr.
3. C.J. Williams, 6-5, so.
4. Richard Howell, 6-7, fr.
5. Tracy Smith, 6-8, jr.

We’ve got a lot of versatile parts – note how I didn’t use ‘interchangable’ – for example, Julius Mays (6-2, so.) could start in the backcourt and Dennis Horner (6-8, sr.) could start for Williams.

Pre-summer thought: It is year 4 for Sidney Lowe and, for better or worse, it’s his roster with no more holdovers. Lorenzo Brown and Ricahrd Howell better be his Johnny Dawkins and Mark Alarie (the recruiting class that saved Coach K) or the forecast doesn’t look promising for a year five.

As we noted in the comments section of another entry – every team in the Atlantic Coast Conference has made at least one NCAA Tournament appearance in the last three seasons since Lowe was announced as coach.

Wednesday morning brought us more attention on the Wolfpack Basketball program as Ken Tysiac offered offseason improvement plans for the Wolfpack.

C Tracy Smith: A jump shot. If Smith can learn to score on 12- to 14-foot jumpers rather than just with his back to the basket, he will be much more effective in the post. He ought to particularly work on the same baseline shot McCauley developed last season.

F Dennis Horner: Nerves of steel. Horner was one of N.C. State’s best free throw shooters until the closing minutes of tight games. As a potential starter, he will be in position to shoot more key free throws next season.

G C.J. Williams: A pull-up jumper. Williams improved immensely as a catch-and-shoot scorer last season as a freshman. The next step will be to develop as a slasher, and a pull-up jump shot will help him do that.

F Johnny Thomas: A baseline game. Thomas, who’s N.C. State’s best athlete, has an opportunity to gain huge minutes next season and stands to benefit most from the departures of Costner and Ferguson. He isn’t much of a scorer, though, and could make a huge impact if he can score on baseline drives and jump shots.

G Javi Gonzalez, G Farnold Degand, G Julius Mays: Consistency. At their best, any one of these players is capable of being an ACC-caliber point guard. Problem is, not a single one of these guys stays at his best for any appreciable length of time. Coach Sidney Lowe would love for one of them to seize the reigns this summer.

G Lorenzo Brown, F Richard Howell, G Scott Wood, F Josh Davis: Maturity beyond their years. At least two of N.C. State’s freshmen are going to have to contribute immediately. Brown and Howell in particular need to be ready for vital roles if this team is to have any chance of reaching postseason play.

Coach Sidney Lowe: A new plan. Whatever success N.C. State had last season came as a result of Lowe’s introducing a big lineup with Smith, Costner and McCauley on the floor early in ACC play. The Wolfpack doesn’t have the bodies up front to play big anymore.

Update
Dave Telep of Scout.com was on 850 this morning and gave a good overview of recruiting for the Wolfpack, with his thoughts on John Wall, C.J. Leslie and Seth Curry. Well worth the time to listen.

3/25 Update
Here is State’s 2009-2010 BB schedule combined with Giglio’s predictions

09-10-bb-schedule

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

09-10 Basketball Basketball Recruiting General Sidney Lowe

122 Responses to Giglio Previews 2009-10 ACC (Updated 3/25)

  1. sautz 03/25/2009 at 10:36 AM #

    Quick rundown of Telep’s comments:
    John Wall – Probably Memphis, but who knows with this kid?

    CJ Leslie – Against the odds to come to State.

    Josh Davis – Won’t contribute as a freshman. A program guy he compares to Watts or Copeland. May never be a ACC contributor.

    Brandon Costner – Skill and talent to make NBA, but will have to work for it. Compares him to Ronald Curry as he never really got it going due to changes in coaches and players around him.

    Seth Curry – Could go anywhere. Mentions the obvious VT.

  2. Gene 03/25/2009 at 10:50 AM #

    We have a long way to go – and the sad fact is, we may never get their w/ Lowe.

    There no guarantees anything we do will work out. I just don’t share the doom and gloom philosophy embraced by others. I’m not glowing with optimism about next year, but I don’t share the utter dispair others have embraced either.

    We showed improvement last year. We have replacements for the departing players, who showed they are capable of being just as productive.

    If nothing else, I don’t think we will get worse.

    Gene – I really don’t like the play that game.

    A friend of mine would say of his golf round, “I shot a 75, but it should have been a 68.”

    Just trying to show we aren’t that far off from being 8-8 based on last years results. There’s reason to believe some of the glaring problems, which dogged us for the past few seasons – like turnovers – will not be dragging us down as much, due to the emergence of Javi as a competent PG and maybe even Mays able to be a solid PG.

    I just don’t see the point in thinking nothing can ever change, when some things did change last year, that have been dogging this program for years, even before Lowe got here.

    We improved our rebounding and weren’t automatically going to be outrebounded every game. We started taking better care of the ball. We aren’t automatically doomed, when we encounter a full court press, which I remember destroying our team for most of this decade.

    I’ll at least wait till the schedule is announced and who turns pro, before writing us off for next year.

  3. McPete 03/25/2009 at 11:01 AM #

    If we go 8-8 and make it to the NIT next year, there is no way he gets fired. It just won’t happen, regardless of what we want. So then the following year, 2010-2011, will be a make or break season. I just think this thing will drag on for alot longer than it should.

    Unless someone fires Lee Fowler and they hire an AD ideally not from the same circle of supporters who seemingly tolerate Fowler’s lack of performance. We dont need someone like that.

  4. wolfmans brother. 03/25/2009 at 11:02 AM #

    One of the things I enjoy about this site is that it offers a forum for informed discussion and accurate assessment of the state of wolfpack athletics, as well as a place to vent so that our significant others do not kick us out or commit us to the nearest mental institution. If you want sunshine and rainbows you may want to look elsewhere.

    However, the fact is some of us in assessing the state of state basketball, have come to the reasonable and supported conclusion that things are very bad.

    I don’t buy the “if you’re a true wolfpack fan you’ll wait till next year” mantra.

  5. JasonP 03/25/2009 at 11:06 AM #

    I’ll admit I have high expectations for next season. We all should, really. No team in the ACC was exceptionally impressive this past season aside from the the top 2, and the Pack could have taken Duke if someone had played D on Henderson.

    Out of all the teams in this league, I see no reason why State can’t finish in the top 5. Out of the remaining teams beyond UNC/Duke, what teams can the Pack not hang with? UVA, VT, UMD, Miami, Clemson, FSU, Wake, BC, GT??? They all have weaknesses to exploit, and most have horrible/borderline coaching.

  6. Sw0rdf1sh 03/25/2009 at 11:08 AM #

    Thompson, although I agree with your point of view and support of Coach Lowe, you will have to remember that this is the “Internets”. With that we must come to the realization that there is ying and yang……there is a lot of good information that we deem from these sites that was not possible years ago. We can have positive and negative discussions and some very insightful comments to be shared.

    But along those lines we also have to remember it is the very same “Internets” that is sometimes hated by our AD under our cloud of anomynity and cautioned by Coaches.

    Unfortunately we don’t all share the same views, maturity levels, or foresight, so trudge through all the BS the best you can.

    Hey, at least it is staying interesting!

    …..AND I still would want Seth Curry with the Pack even if we are currently doing well at that position.

  7. JasonP 03/25/2009 at 11:13 AM #

    And let me just add an emphatic ‘YES!’ in support of Seth Curry transferring to State. Never pass up a potential superstar scorer when your team leader in scoring is leaving. I’ll take a ~20PPG avg in the CAA any day of the week!

  8. BJD95 03/25/2009 at 11:35 AM #

    I can only speak for myself, but this is where I am. Lowe is in “prove it” mode. There’s no more taking things on faith. He has to show me alot this coming season and change my impression of him as a coach and more importantly, as the steward of our basketball program.

    I certainly will keep my mind open to being proven wrong. But I can’t discount what I’ve seen, heard, and discerned – so I will go in skeptical.

    On the macro level, pretending things are fine when they’re not doesn’t do anybody a shit bit of good. It’s also an impossible ideal, as it runs completely counter to human nature to talk about what’s going on. The internet is just an extension of the water cooler, sports radio, and newspaper columns and letters to the editor. Honest discussion in good times and bad happens everywhere, among every fanbase. And sunshine is the best disinfectant.

  9. Wolfpack_1995 03/25/2009 at 11:38 AM #

    “Wait till next year” should be the official Wolfpacker Club motto.

    I am fed up and thankfully this site, unlike others, offers a real(somewhat harsh) perspective on the State of our basketball program.

    20 years of nothing! Keep wearing your red sunglasses and drinking the punch. The people that are passing out the sunglasses and punch are probably Fowler’s people anyways. “Sid’s great. Remember 1983”

    “NCAAT next year our bust” should really be the Wolfpacker Club motto next year.

    How long do we stand aside and look?

    Sid needs two years of service in the NBA to qualify for a pension. He should go back and work with Flip perhaps and live happily.

    We are going and continue to go nowhere fast.

    Optimism is about as relavent for Wolfpack hoops as winning championships.

  10. Noah 03/25/2009 at 11:38 AM #

    But do you really think Bashing our Coach day in and day out is going to help. So you actually think that the University is going to get rid of Fowler?

    Well…if no one of any importance reads these boards, then it certainly doesn’t hurt. It might annoy you, but if no one is reading this but the lunatic fringe, then you can post whatever you want.

    Certainly posting “I support ‘Sid’ no matter what!!!” doesn’t win us any games. I don’t see where “I hate Lowe with the intensity of a 1000 suns” loses us anything.

  11. com state10 03/25/2009 at 11:39 AM #

    Talk about CHANGE. BSIE and I used to be the only ones (and a few others) to strongly stand up for Lowe, amongst the cavalry comin’ for us!!!

    This site seems to be evening out!!! And that is music to my ears.

    When can we start making predictions for next year?! We should have had a bracket pool somewhere so BSIE and I could have proven we know NCAA Basketball better than all ya’ll. (kidding!)

    I think we can all agree on something, is that whenever the ship gets turned around, whether its this year, or the 2010-11 year…the RBC will be absolutely rockin’, filled to capacity nearly every ACC game, and one of the toughest places to play in the country. Wolfpack Nation and the City of Raleigh may be down, but there are so many people just jumpin’ at the chance to be passionate wolfpack fans like we are rain or shine.

    Go LOWE!! GO PACK!!!

  12. SaccoV 03/25/2009 at 11:47 AM #

    Nothing against Telep, but there is nothing that he can say that would make me believe him. Recruiting is a crap-shoot at best. Steph and Seth Curry are perfect examples of recruiters REFUSAL to look at a player’s ability or pedigree as a means for evaluating talent. I teach at a Triad high school and one of my colleagues played college basketball at Pfeiffer for 4 years. I asked her about the ins and outs of kids being recruited to play college ball. She mentioned that if you don’t expose yourself (i.e. play three years of AAU basketball) then most coaches won’t take the time to spit on you. It’s shameful that good high school players who are unable or unwilling to consistently showcase their skills around the country to the financial benefit of others are immediately cast-off as having no skills or termed as unable to contribute right away. No one honestly knows if Josh Davis can contribute to this team next season. I know this post means I’m taking things on faith that Sid and the staff can spot talent, but they have done moderately well with the players they’ve brought in so far (Williams and Hickson being the two prime examples up to this point). For me, recruiting websites and rankings are for suckers. Stop looking at them, and stop listening to people like Dave Telep, who like a decent 3-point shooter, will miss 6 of every 10 shots.

  13. redfred2 03/25/2009 at 11:48 AM #

    X

  14. blackdom 03/25/2009 at 11:56 AM #

    Never compared us to unc ever and I have not either like some do here^ placed all the last 3 years of crapand blame on someone elses lap. My point was this look at Michigan,Western Kentucky,Indiana next year and fill in the blank to many other schools,that have gotten new coaches,involved in scandals, inherited players from anothers regime. See where they are and are going and compare it to where we are now! You make Sid out to be an innocent bystander here.

  15. frankiepack 03/25/2009 at 12:04 PM #

    See wolfpack hoops site is running a highlight film of Josh Davis there is not one shot from outside of 3 ft. I think he will make are layup line look better next year.

  16. Gene 03/25/2009 at 12:12 PM #

    Eh…Bill Self had a bit of a drop off with Roy’s players at Kansas…go figure…

  17. ktoh 03/25/2009 at 12:33 PM #

    ^I would gladly take a bit of a drop off. Kansas? That was not much of a drop from roy to self now compared to what is going on here. You don’t last in Kansas that way.

  18. Afterglow 03/25/2009 at 12:39 PM #

    I think it’s sad that we MIGHT have a chance since “the rest of the ACC will be down”. I’m not sure what that says exactly but I do know what it means if we absolutely suck for the subsequent season.

    There’s a lot to be proven next year. I’m all about supporting the pack but I challenge anyone who feels comfortable scrutinizing the very mechanics of a game to also feel comfortable looking at the aggregation of a season, offering their critical points of view. There’s nothing wrong with that and after all, what better a time to do it than now?

    I think at times there’s a miss-conception out there; that just because you’re not blowing sunshine up your ass every morning and are poised for opinion of the critical kind, that you’re not a fan. I will bleed wolfpack red until I die. I could never see it any other way, regardless of how bad things get. I’m all about seeing the positives but there’s also nothing wrong with looking at improvements that need to be made as well.

  19. Alpha Wolf 03/25/2009 at 12:44 PM #

    Me, I plan on giving next year’s team every benefit of the doubt and let them have their own identity.

    There will be huge holes to fill, sure, but there may also be a chance to have addition by subtraction. Hopefully, the team will have a never say die attitude and will surprise the most pessimistic of us.

    Thing is, I understand why there is rampant pessimism. Twenty years is a long time, an entire generation in fact.

  20. Texpack 03/25/2009 at 12:50 PM #

    I don’t get enough information on the rest of the teams in the ACC on a regular basis to make an informed projection on where we will finish next year so I will go at it a slightly different way.

    PG – Next year should be better than this year was at the PG. The loss @ Florida in particular was the direct result of out poor PG play. Julius May really needs to progress to the point that he can play effective back up minutes at the point. The reason he rode the bench when Sidney shortened his rotation was that he dribbles way too much and everyone else ended up standing around waiting for him to do something. He has a nice outside shot at times so I’d like to see him at the 2 if match-ups will allow.

    SG/SF – The Brown dude had better be able to play. Between Brown, CJ Williams, and Johnny Thomas we have to come up with minutes at both of these positions. I’m 5’11” and 48 years old, but I would have been more effective than Courtney Fells was this past season in helping to break full court pressure. Whoever plays his minutes will be an improvement. If the two guys filling the minutes at these spots can’t make 3’s, Tracy Smith will get doubled half the time and tripled the other half. I really liked what I saw out of both CJ Williams and Johnny Thomas this year, but they both need to improve. CJ will need to put the ball on the floor more and JT needs to improve his shot. As frustrating as BC was to watch, his rebounding will have to be replaced, but thankfully so will his effort on defense. The small forward minutes are going to have to be played with a boxer’s mentality – tough, relentless, with very high energy.

    PF/C – A three man rotation of Howell, Smith, and Horner. After a weak sophomore season, Horner finally played more like I thought he would after watching him as a freshman. I think he’s a kid who may be finally catching up to his body. If that’s the case he could be much better next year. If it’s not, he should at least be as effective as he was this year. Tracy Smith is the player I would vote as most likely to disappoint next year. That is mainly because he will suffer the most from the departure of McCauley and Costner. Unless the freshman proves to be a major threat on offense, Smith will be the total focus of everybody’s interior defense. I look for Tracy to spend a lot of time on the bench in foul trouble due to the extra defensive demands that will be on him. I look for Howell’s minutes to be limited by fouls as well.

    Questions – Where will the points come from? (Smith 15-18, Javi 10-12, CJ 8-10, Brown 10-12, Horner 11-13, Howell 6, Mays 6-8) This team will really struggle to score at times.

    Where will the rebounds come from? Heaven only knows.

    Those two things being said, this team must play lock down defense, seriously limit turnovers, and score lots of opportunity baskets.

    Prediction ACC record between 7-9 and 9-7.

  21. GAWolf 03/25/2009 at 12:53 PM #

    Sacco: Stars were once made before AAU basketball even existed… good points above.

  22. choppack1 03/25/2009 at 12:53 PM #

    [quote] Just trying to show we aren’t that far off from being 8-8 based on last years results. There’s reason to believe some of the glaring problems, which dogged us for the past few seasons – like turnovers – will not be dragging us down as much, due to the emergence of Javi as a competent PG and maybe even Mays able to be a solid PG[/quote]

    I see what you are saying – and it’s a fair point. I also don’t ignore the fact that the 6-10 record this year was Sidney’s best (and probably best in coaching including the NBA.)

    He definitely applied some lessons that he’s learned in the first two years this year. That’s the good news.

    The bad news is that in his first 3 years, his conference record is worse than Sendek’s (and it may actually be worse than Robinson’s, I just haven’t Les’ #s.)

    The bad news is that Sid doesn’t have a large window to show that he can develop high school studs. We’ve seen some evidence here lately that this window is starting to shut.

    IMHO, next year is HUGE for Lowe. It’s easy to sell yourself to kids when you are a blank slate if you are charming. However, if you have a bad track record, those w/ the best options are likely to decide that partnering w/ you is not in their best options.

    Next year he needs to show the good recruits that a) his system works on a team and individual level and b)that he’ll be around to coach them.

  23. Noah 03/25/2009 at 1:14 PM #

    You should probably put Brown at your PG/SG slot rather than SG/SF slot.

  24. JeremyH 03/25/2009 at 1:22 PM #

    we’re going to get killed on defense next year (as is), i don’t care how much of a sleeper this Davis kid is. so we targeted several 5 stars, and we end up with a 1 star? what about 2-3 stars?

  25. Classof89 03/25/2009 at 1:24 PM #

    Prediction ACC record between 7-9 and 9-7.

    If this collection of wanna-bes and never-was’s manages to win 8 games in the ACC, then Lowe deserves coach of the year.

    Like BJD, I’m glad that a consensus of “NCAA Tourney or fire him” is emerging, but its a shame we have to waste another year of program decline to prove what many of us have already known for over two years–he’s not up to this job.

    It’s sort of like telling a guy on death row that you are going to delay the execution for one year, here’s a typewriter, if you write a best selling novel during the year, you go free. Sure, theoretically he could write the novel, but realistically…

    One thing Telep said this morning on 850 the Buzz that had me scratching my head…(and maybe it was the hosts and not Telep, I can’t remember)…whoever said that it would be easier to fill our position after another train wreck next year than it was after Sendek left. I don’t agree…do you guys think MORE coaches around the country will be interested in this job next year after three straight years of bottom fourth in the league during one of the weakest periods in ACC history?

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