Giglio Previews 2009-10 ACC (Updated 3/25)

On the heels of this fantastic and comprehensive entry, we get more great work looking to next season from J.P. Giglio at the N&O’s ACCNow. I wouldn’t even know how to begin breaking down the rosters, but he does a great job projecting early departures and new player rotations. Kudos to him for going on record like this!

Where is the Pack? 9th:

9. N.C. State
1. Javi Gonzalez, 5-11, jr.
2. Lorenzo Brown, 6-4, fr.
3. C.J. Williams, 6-5, so.
4. Richard Howell, 6-7, fr.
5. Tracy Smith, 6-8, jr.

We’ve got a lot of versatile parts – note how I didn’t use ‘interchangable’ – for example, Julius Mays (6-2, so.) could start in the backcourt and Dennis Horner (6-8, sr.) could start for Williams.

Pre-summer thought: It is year 4 for Sidney Lowe and, for better or worse, it’s his roster with no more holdovers. Lorenzo Brown and Ricahrd Howell better be his Johnny Dawkins and Mark Alarie (the recruiting class that saved Coach K) or the forecast doesn’t look promising for a year five.

As we noted in the comments section of another entry – every team in the Atlantic Coast Conference has made at least one NCAA Tournament appearance in the last three seasons since Lowe was announced as coach.

Wednesday morning brought us more attention on the Wolfpack Basketball program as Ken Tysiac offered offseason improvement plans for the Wolfpack.

C Tracy Smith: A jump shot. If Smith can learn to score on 12- to 14-foot jumpers rather than just with his back to the basket, he will be much more effective in the post. He ought to particularly work on the same baseline shot McCauley developed last season.

F Dennis Horner: Nerves of steel. Horner was one of N.C. State’s best free throw shooters until the closing minutes of tight games. As a potential starter, he will be in position to shoot more key free throws next season.

G C.J. Williams: A pull-up jumper. Williams improved immensely as a catch-and-shoot scorer last season as a freshman. The next step will be to develop as a slasher, and a pull-up jump shot will help him do that.

F Johnny Thomas: A baseline game. Thomas, who’s N.C. State’s best athlete, has an opportunity to gain huge minutes next season and stands to benefit most from the departures of Costner and Ferguson. He isn’t much of a scorer, though, and could make a huge impact if he can score on baseline drives and jump shots.

G Javi Gonzalez, G Farnold Degand, G Julius Mays: Consistency. At their best, any one of these players is capable of being an ACC-caliber point guard. Problem is, not a single one of these guys stays at his best for any appreciable length of time. Coach Sidney Lowe would love for one of them to seize the reigns this summer.

G Lorenzo Brown, F Richard Howell, G Scott Wood, F Josh Davis: Maturity beyond their years. At least two of N.C. State’s freshmen are going to have to contribute immediately. Brown and Howell in particular need to be ready for vital roles if this team is to have any chance of reaching postseason play.

Coach Sidney Lowe: A new plan. Whatever success N.C. State had last season came as a result of Lowe’s introducing a big lineup with Smith, Costner and McCauley on the floor early in ACC play. The Wolfpack doesn’t have the bodies up front to play big anymore.

Update
Dave Telep of Scout.com was on 850 this morning and gave a good overview of recruiting for the Wolfpack, with his thoughts on John Wall, C.J. Leslie and Seth Curry. Well worth the time to listen.

3/25 Update
Here is State’s 2009-2010 BB schedule combined with Giglio’s predictions

09-10-bb-schedule

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

09-10 Basketball Basketball Recruiting General Sidney Lowe

122 Responses to Giglio Previews 2009-10 ACC (Updated 3/25)

  1. wufpup76 03/24/2009 at 7:20 PM #

    ^It was a good entry and well worth the read if you’re interested in how other ACC members *may* look next season.

    There are / will be a lot of variables that come into play for the Pack next season, but that doesn’t change the fact that it’s no excuses / results time.

  2. wolfonthehill 03/24/2009 at 7:31 PM #

    As much as I love some of those guys listed, it’s a group of role players until proven otherwise. That offense will work if, and only if, we at least make an effort to get the ball to Tracy damn near every time down court.

    Or I guess the whole Dawkins/Alarie thing would work, too. 🙂

  3. BJD95 03/24/2009 at 7:48 PM #

    I think 9th is a pretty optimistic projection, and even that should get Lowe fired.

    Not sure Wake will lose all three, but they very well could. James Johnson had the lowest NBA buzz of the three, but he was spectacular down the stretch. Even if they do, I’m not sure they finish as low as 11th.

    Teague and Aminu are classic “sell high” players who should probably go now while their highlight reels are still in scouts minds – and before the flaws in their games get more exposure.

    If VT gets Delaney and Allen back (as they should), I think they are a Top 4 ACC team.

    Other than that, it’s very hard to dispute any of J.P.’s rankings.

  4. packalum44 03/24/2009 at 7:50 PM #

    JP is underestimating Wake Forest. Ish Smith and Williams are pretty good players who can penetrate and take you off the dribble. Tony Woods and MacFarland will be a force inside and 5-Star Sophmore Ty Walker was not even mentioned. Ari Stewart was just as highly regarded as Brown & Howell. Out of ATL as well I believe.

    I think Gary Williams could have taken our team this year (and last) and gone dancing. Hell, I think several other coaches could as well.

    I think Ed Davis is the most talented player at UNC and if he would have gone to some other school where he actually got to play, he would have been a 1st round pick. Not sure that is the case since he chose UNC.

  5. kyjelly 03/24/2009 at 7:53 PM #

    Miami just signed a 6’9 power forward out of Detroit as well. Think 9th is very optimistic and virginia did really finish up a bit stronger than we did and if they get a 1/2 way decent coach they will be much better than predicted.

  6. Wulfpack 03/24/2009 at 8:01 PM #

    I don’t agree with GT at #5. I know they’ve got some horses, but Hewitt has shown he is a crappy coach. He knows he’s canned next year if there is no NCAA, so maybe the Jackets will play well out of desperation. But I don’t see it.

    I also agree that Wake is way undervalued even if the three amigos leave to the NBA. Not saying they will contend for the conference, but certainly a bubble team.

    Duke is the clear cut #1 next year and UNC’s young guns will have an opportunity to play big miutes. But Drew hasn’t impressed me at the point when he has played this year and we know what a problem that is.

    As for us, it’s a crap shoot. Could go either way quite honestly. We’re going to get abused on the boards and in the paint — that’s a certainty. Smith can’t do it all himself and he’s foul prone. He has GOT to improve his free throw shooting and defensive intensity.

    Guard play, again, will be a qestion mark. Yes, Javi improved, but he barely saw the floor our biggest game in the ACCT against Maryland. Mays to me is the guy but I guess time will tell. Degand is the #3.

    9th seems about right but something tells me it could get bad next year, as in really bad. We’re 1 injury, or one guy banging a teammate’s girlfriend, away from being the league’s doormat once more.

  7. wufpup76 03/24/2009 at 8:04 PM #

    “I think 9th is a pretty optimistic projection, and even that should get Lowe fired.”

    ^I think anything short of a NCAAT invite should put his position in mortal danger … And I don’t think having another horrific OOC schedule to guarantee 10 or 11 victories is the way to go.

    Off topic, but the Duke women – seeded 1st in their region – are about to go down to 9 seed Michigan St. (where Duke nabbed their current coach from). The only thing is, the game is *at* Michigan State. I’ve seen several higher seeded teams have to play a lower seed on the lower’s home floor this year in the women’s NCAAT (2nd seeded Auburn got crushed AT 7th seeded Rutgers last night for instance). I know this happens and it guarantees a nice crowd turnout and a little revenue, but I’m not quite sure I get it. Seriously, what’s up with that? I know they set the sub-regional and regional sites in advance (sometimes, anyway) – but there has to be a better way than this …

    Edit: Now the MSU crowd is rushing the court (including the men’s team) … I’d be crying foul if I were these higher seeds having to play on the lower seed’s home floor. Wow.

  8. BJD95 03/24/2009 at 8:04 PM #

    My rough guess, assuming JP’s personnel:

    UNC
    Duke
    Clemson
    VT
    FSU
    BC
    Maryland
    GT
    Wake
    Miami
    NC State
    Virginia

    I only feel good about the Top 5 and the Bottom 3. 6-9 is too close to call.

  9. LRM 03/24/2009 at 8:12 PM #

    Is it possible to pick State 13th?

  10. turfpack 03/24/2009 at 8:30 PM #

    And some thought the ACC was weak this year?-right……

  11. BladenWolf 03/24/2009 at 9:05 PM #

    9th place is not acceptable. I will not accept 9th place in a 12 team league. The prediction is probably accurate, but that does not make it acceptable.

    I will say this ad nauseum until it comes to pass: Lowe has to take us to the dance next year or he should walk or be shown the door.

    What does that ultimatum mean with a small, not-so-good shooting, limited skill-sets ballteam – players he recruited?

    It means that the teaching of fundamentals will magnify into certain wins or certain loses during the season. It means off season conditioning and training to the point where we outlast the other team on certain nights. It means understanding game time situations and exploiting match-ups to end up on top. It relies on understanding your players limitations and adjusting the offensive and defensive schemes accordingly (something V was brilliant at).

    So in the end, next season will not entirely come down to personnel on the court, but rather the one responsible for teaching/coaching/motivating the team to be the best they can be. If I see something markedly different than this season, then I will be willing to adjust my thinking.

    Until then, next year should be the last year on Lowes contract. (Fowlers contract was over years ago – no one has noticed yet).

  12. JeremyH 03/24/2009 at 9:06 PM #

    Perhaps if we finish 9th, there should be no more excuses. It will be with all his guys, a serviceable point guard with experience, and if we finish 9th, then it is only because we did not improve defensively and in consistent effort.

  13. CStanley 03/24/2009 at 9:42 PM #

    Giglio on UVA:
    “With the right coach (Jeff Capel, Rick Barnes or Tubby Smith) this group could overachieve. ”

    Rick Barnes? WTH? Did I miss something? He’s a candidate for UVA?

    If that were to happen, my head would explode.

  14. BSIE80 03/24/2009 at 9:52 PM #

    I believe Sid has a 6 yr contract.
    Also, I don’t think any of you guys have a vote or say in whether he coaches at State or not.

    Why not utilize this site to discuss improvements that Smith/Horner/etc. need to make to be better individual players…. Versus, we will suck, finish last, no excuses for Sid, so we need to fire him.

    It is really getting a little old.
    It is almost like employees complaining about the company management. They forget that they are part of the company.

    My thoughts to get into the mid tier/NCAAT bid:

    Tracy needs to develop a midrange game, one or two dribbles to get to the rim without turning the ball over, and increase his FT %.

    Horner will need to work on boxing out, develop a post up move, and improve his quickness. He needs to play the 4 position and not the 3.

    CJ will need to work on penetrating and finishing at the rim. He needs to also be a factor with rebounding.

    Javier/Mays- play them both if need be. Both will be improved. They both need to improve their defensive skills.

    Thomas needs to work on 3 pt shooting and ball handling (dribble/passing skills).

    Degand- we need him to get some of his lateral movement back, otherwise, he needs to just focus on 3 pt shooting.

    Howell/Brown/Davis/Wood- we will need significant support from these guys. Howell needs to at least provide rebounding and defense. We need scoring from Wood and Brown. Hopefully, Wood is more than an outside shooter and Brown is all that we hear about. Davis, FT shooting and ball handling…

  15. dtwncsu 03/24/2009 at 10:06 PM #

    If we finish any higher than tenth I will be suprised. The way we play defense and crash the glass will determine how our season plays out. We need a another big down low to help on both ends of the court.

  16. tvp1 03/24/2009 at 10:11 PM #

    I expect that we’ll be picked below 9th in the preseason media poll.

    That said, after Duke, UNC, and Clemson, it looks completely wide open to me. None of those other rosters have great talent.

    BJD – disagree on the Hokies. They only went 7-9 last year with Vassalo, and he was the real engine on that team. Delaney and especially Allen didn’t always show up. I don’t see how they get much better.

  17. ryebread 03/24/2009 at 10:32 PM #

    The ACC will be putrid next year. We’ll be lucky to be a top 3 league in the RPI.

    Miami will be awful next year. They’re DFL. BC without Rice? Sorry, but not that good. Same with VT — I expect another bubble bursting season.

    Wake is an enigma. Get those guys back and they’re poised for a top 3 finish. Get none of their big 3 back and they’ll struggle to get out of the bottom third.

    Just looking at things objectively, we are lacking in talent. The results next year will depend on how well the players are coached.

    I think that if SL doesn’t make the NCAAs next year, he will be fired. I think it’s NCAAs or bust for him.

  18. newt 03/24/2009 at 10:55 PM #

    Johnny Dawkins was a McDonald’s All American and I believe the national player of the year in high school as well as college.

  19. BJD95 03/24/2009 at 11:45 PM #

    Logic says that BC and Maryland will blow, but I’ve bet on that happening time and time again, and they end up winning 7-9 ACC games.

    I think Malcolm Delaney has POY potential. But I have been guilty of overestimating the Hokies in the past, and might be doing it again.

    The key for Wake is James Johnson. They will be Top 5 if he returns, even if the other two overrated guys bolt.

    I think Miami, UVA, and NC State all have severe talent deficiencies.

  20. JeremyH 03/25/2009 at 12:08 AM #

    “talent deficiency” noooooo

    if you told me six months ago that we lose out on Favors, Wall, and Cousins.. and to top it off CJ Leslie, and don’t make any of the 4 post-season tournaments, I’m not sure what I would say, but it might be something like “so who’s the new coach”?

    I don’t think we really drop off in talent from this year, I think we get better for obvious reasons, and also that the new players were recruited to fit his system. So I have to agree, NCAA or bust. If they can play like a real basketball team it should be a non-issue.

  21. JeremyH 03/25/2009 at 12:12 AM #

    does anyone remember that game where we sat Fells, Costner, and McCauley, and then rattled off like 20 minutes in a couple minutes to get back in the game (and then later put them back in to lose the game). well we have more of that to look forward to. with upgrades to quickness and shooting, we should do fine.

  22. whitefang 03/25/2009 at 1:40 AM #

    The Daily Progress in Charlottesville has Tubby Smith, Jeff Capel, Sean Miller, Jay Wright, Anthony Grant (who they say is probably going to Alabama already), and Mike Brey as on UVa’s list. No mention of Rick Barnes.

  23. Wulfpack 03/25/2009 at 5:58 AM #

    Anthony Grant has been granted permission to interview at Bama but the interview hasn’t taken place yet, so not a done deal. If I were Grant, I’d keep holding out for a real gem of a job because he can get it.

  24. sautz 03/25/2009 at 6:01 AM #

    Hopefully if we fail again next year the powers that be will see it is the perfect time to fire Lowe after the season. With CJ likely going somewhere else we probably won’t be risking losing much of a recruiting class.

  25. Sw0rdf1sh 03/25/2009 at 6:31 AM #

    Seth Curry looking to transfer from Liberty to a “bigger” conference. Obviously, it is way early and coaches aren’t supposed to be in contact yet, but this could look promising for 2010?

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