State @ Carolina Pre-Game Thread (Updated Wed 9am)

08-09 Basketball General175

Note: Originally posted by Alpha Wolf and amended on Wednesday by Jeff

State is obviously improving and has won back-to-back ACC wins for the first time this season. The Wolfpack also snapped a nine-game conference road game skid Saturday in Atlanta. For their part, UNC’s Tyler “Will.i.Am” Hansbrough loaned PG Ty Lawson some of his infamous determination last night.  Lawson put that to good use in the final minutes of the UNC-Miami game, as he led the Tar Heels win 69-65 in Coral Gables.

On paper this looks like a Tarheel romp, and all indications are that will be how it plays out. Yet Another has some nice general statistics. Speaking of statistics, Section Six will statistically show you Tracy Smith’s impact on our offense by clicking here. With that said, I fully expect Smith to be in foul trouble and on the bench within the first eight minutes of tonight’s visit to Chapel Hill.

Caulton Tudor has gone so far as to say that the Wolfpack’s goal in Chapel Hill tonight is simply to ‘compete’. Honestly, I can’t disagree with him. The talent differential between these two rosters is just too large and is only accentuated by the strength of Carolina’s backcourt compared to the struggles of the Wolfpack’s backcourt (which is definitely improving).

Tudor makes a legitimate point about the debacle in Chapel Hill last year…

For all practical purposes, State’s 2007-08 season ended on Jan. 12 with a 93-62 loss in the Smith Center. Sidney Lowe’s second team entered that game at 11-3 overall, on a seven-game win streak and with a resume that included respectable wins over Davidson, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, South Carolina and Villanova.

But after one of the most humiliating first halves in school history (UNC 43, Pack 13), the Wolfpack disintegrated. State won only four more games and lost all sense of team unity. That’s how fast you can slide from 11-3 to 15-16 and into oblivion.

…but he fails to mention that was one of the Wolfpack’s first games without injured starting point guard, Farnold Degand and with struggling freshman, Javi Gonzalez. Degand wouldn’t have meant a Wolfpack win; but his presence would have made a huge difference in the manner in which we were embarrassed.

Don’t forget, the Wolfpack went to the halftime locker room down only 41-40 in his Coach Lowe’s first trip to Chapel Hill before Coach was rushed to the hospital during halftime. So, I am not convinced that this program just ‘naturally’ gets clobbered in Chapel Hill.

If NC State can have their best game of the year – and our bigs get fair enough treatment from the officials to get to the free throw line for a number of shots proportional with the contact that they draw – then Pack could have fighter’s chance tonight because of the improved play of Farnold Degand in the backcourt and Courtney Fells on the wing. The team is surely aware that a win would be money on any regular season resume.  They’ll need a complete, forty minute effort against a Tar Heel squad starting to head towards its peak, and winning will be difficult.  Thing is, this is the ACC and anything can happen.

* WRAL has a lot of insightful comments from Coach Lowe regarding changes, substitution rotation, our post play and more that you can see by clicking here. This is interesting stuff.

Starting with the Virginia Tech loss, the largest number of players that have seen more than a minute of playing time in any one game is eight…

…”[We are] just looking at our team, being fair, giving everyone an opportunity and trying to narrow that thing down to eight players.”

* The N&O has recognized that for the second straight year that no players from North Carolina high schools will be starting in tonight’s Game. (Click here)

This is the second straight season that neither basketball team has had a starter from North Carolina. The 2007-08 season was the first time in at least 29 years that all five starters from each team came from outside North Carolina.

* ACCNow also has a video podcast that can be seen by clicking here. We’d love to embed their stuff, but their technical department obviously falls short of the talent of JP Giglio’s impressive administration of the site.

08-09 Basketball General

175 Responses to State @ Carolina Pre-Game Thread (Updated Wed 9am)

  1. Classof89 02/16/2009 at 3:30 PM #

    When was the last time we won in Chapel Hill OTHER than the 7-20 Doherty season?

  2. choppack1 02/16/2009 at 3:41 PM #

    Cof89 – that would be the next year.

    The last time we beat a UNC team that got a bid to the NCAAs was 1997 or 1998 (Sendek’s 2nd year.)

    I was glad to see UNC win, but I was hoping it would be more impressive. I wanted them to not give us maximum effort (though I’m not sure Roy would allow that.)

    Our keys to game will be very simple:
    1) Limit TOs.
    2) Limit 2nd chance points.
    3) Get back on D.

    We weren’t horrible against them in our game at the RBC. However, after too many of our own baskets, we didn’t get back on D. I think if we can them earn every point – and that means limiting TOs too – we should be in this game in the last 5 minutes.

    I do worry about the refs trying to wrap up UNC’s no 1 seed.

  3. foz 02/16/2009 at 3:42 PM #

    Tom Suiter as always has pretty good analysis of this team:

    http://www.wralsportsfan.com/rs/blogpost/4544888/

    Pretty much a realistic view of the Wolfpack, summed up with this quote:

    “The Wolfpack making a play for the postseason? I do think it’s possible, just as I know there is also the possibility of a total relapse. That is the recent history of N.C. State basketball.”

  4. wpackman33 02/16/2009 at 3:47 PM #

    I think the number one priority is trying to contain ty lawson. i know hansbrough and ellington are dangerous, but it seems in the past few games lawson has really come on strong and dominated. He is a very dangerous player and if we can get back on D and contain him, that’ll be the first step in a successful night.

    I’ll be at church during the 1st half but i’ll be back home for the 2nd half. The last time i missed part of the game because i was at church was last wednesday night. I called and found out that we were up by 8 at the half and later found out we hung on to win. Maybe that’ll happen this wednesday night too.

    GO PACK!!!

  5. txpack 02/16/2009 at 3:53 PM #

    Interesting numbers from wikipedia(I did not verify the accuracy)

    All-time series record
    North Carolina: 139; NC State: 75

    By location
    In Chapel Hill: North Carolina:67; NC State:22
    At Smith Center: North Carolina: 17; NC State:5
    In Raleigh: North Carolina:57; NC State:45
    At Reynolds Coliseum: NC State:29; North Carolina:29
    At ESA/RBC: North Carolina:5; NC State:3
    At neutral site: North Carolina:17; NC State:9

    By tournament
    NCAA Championships: North Carolina:4; NC State:2
    Southern Conference Tournament: NC State:7; North Carolina:3
    Big Four Tournament: NC State:3; North Carolina:2
    ACC Tournament: North Carolina:16; NC State:10

    By coach
    North Carolina coaches
    Frank McGuire: 13-9
    Dean Smith: 60-30
    Bill Guthridge: 6-1
    Matt Doherty: 4-2
    Roy Williams: 11-1 (16-1 overall)

    NC State coaches
    Everett Case: 25-19
    Press Maravich: 2-2
    Norm Sloan: 13-26
    Jim Valvano: 6-18
    Les Robinson: 5-7
    Herb Sendek: 5-16
    Sidney Lowe: 1-5

    By decade
    1910s NC State: 2; North Carolina:0
    1920s: North Carolina:17; NC State:3
    1930s: North Carolina:16; NC State:6
    1940s: North Carolina:13; NC State:10
    1950s: NC State: 18 North Carolina:10
    1960s: North Carolina:18 NC State:4
    1970s: North Carolina:17; NC State:13
    1980s: North Carolina:18; NC State:7
    1990s: North Carolina:15; NC State:7
    2000s: North Carolina:14; NC State:5

  6. jbpackfan 02/16/2009 at 3:58 PM #

    We are due for a win over those punks. It’s time for State to lay the smack down.

  7. wufpup76 02/16/2009 at 4:16 PM #

    Ooohhhhh, a full 48 hours to simmer and stew over this one … nice 😉

    Most important to me, I would like for the Holes to have to earn EVERYTHING they get … If they’re gonna win, I want them to really have to work for it

    Making them play only in the halfcourt would be advantageous (transition D was not there in the last game)

    Hope McCauley, Smith, Costner, Horner et al can give a spirited performance against Hansblah, Thompson, Davis

    And I’ve always thought when Green/Ellington are contained / not hitting shots that makes the Holes that much worse in their halfcourt sets – and it helps tremendously when they are “1 and done” … Rebound the ball guys!

    Also need a much more efficient offensive performance this time around and for Tracy Smith not to pick up 2 fouls in 4 minutes of play

    GO STATE … take it to ’em – stay aggressive

  8. primacyone 02/16/2009 at 4:18 PM #

    I think we will go in there confident at least. We actually played them well in the last game. Well enough to make the team believe they can win.

    I have a feeling Javi is going to go in there with something to prove after his experience at the Dean Dome last year. I hope that works out well!

  9. BJD95 02/16/2009 at 4:30 PM #

    I am cautiously optimistic we can stay within 20-25 points. That’s it. They are our ultimate nightmare matchup, and I don’t think we’d beat them if we played 1000 times.

    – They are big enough to not be overwhelmed by our “big” lineup when we have the ball.

    – They are a good pressing team.

    – They have multiple excellent outside shooters if you play zone.

    – They have Hansblow if you don’t play zone.

    – They have a very fast, scoring PG (we have not beaten a team with one of those all season).

  10. wufpup76 02/16/2009 at 4:32 PM #

    ^Nothing would thrill me more than seeing Javi have a great game against the Holes (in a Pack win, of course!)

    Talk about coming 360 degrees from where you were, that would be it …

  11. choppack1 02/16/2009 at 4:45 PM #

    They are a bad match up for us, I’d actually say that aside from Wake Forest – they are a bad match-up for everyone.

    One thing I do think is in our favor – if we can force them to play the halfcourt game. Obviously, we can’t run w/ these guys, but I think part of the reason they struggled vs. BC was because that’s what BC forced them into.

    While there have been some thoughts on Javi – I think Degand could be a factor. He’s a little taller than most pg’s Lawson faces.

    The bad news is that we can play our best game of the year and still lose this one. The good news is that we can play our best game of the year and win.

    There’s a lot of things you have to mark off your preverbial checklist for us to do…and for them, the checklist is pretty short.

  12. GAWolf 02/16/2009 at 4:48 PM #

    I will be there. I have only attended one game this year… Wake. My brother was at the GA Tech game in ATL. If we somehow win, I will gladly take a set of ACC Tournament tickets, two plane tickets, and a hotel from any donor.

    Wufpup… it’s 180 degrees, mang.

  13. charger17 02/16/2009 at 4:53 PM #

    I very much agree with BJD95. As much as I’d like it to be different, there are too many things required for us to walk away with a win here.

    HOWEVER, that doesn’t mean that valuable progress can’t be made. I also agree with choppack1’s last line . . . and all I’m looking for is the kind of game that would allow us to mark off a huge majority of our proverbial checklist, win or lose.

    1. Capitalize on the opportunities to score in the paint – no missed layups!
    2. Beat them down the floor on defense, which naturally forces them into their half-court set. I wonder how many we allow them to score in the first 10 seconds of their 35 vs. the last 25 seconds of their 35. If we can keep the vast majorities of scoring in the last 25, I think the score stays within reach of our offensive output.
    3. Of course, the obvious things we’ve needed to improve all season – no second chance points and no more than 10 turnovers.

    GOOOOO STATE ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

  14. Wait_Til_This_Year 02/16/2009 at 5:05 PM #

    Pasted from the last thread (not that it’s super insightful, just realized the discussion switched threads):

    I know I’m gonna get roasted for this one, but how’s this for a strategy: just don’t foul. Period. Miami didn’t do it, or at least wasn’t called for it, and UNC scores in the 70s instead of 90s. Hansbrough and Lawson usually score anyway when they’re fouled, and rack up another 5-15 (apiece?) from the line with the FTs.

    This would be tough to do, especially with TH spazzing out in the paint, and the refs being overcome by his will and all. This might also appear to be soft defense, which would of course mean people would call out our defense after the fact if we lost. But take away 10-15 easy points for UNX, and of course hold onto the damn ball on our possessions, and who knows where we would be in the last 5 min or so? Then come the typical benefits, like no foul DQs, and 1-and-1s for them down the stretch if the game is actually close.

    I love to see TH get hacked as much as the next guy, but I feel like it plays into his hands. Same with Lawson, and even though they’re stacked at every position, those are the 2 best guys on their team right now.

  15. choppack1 02/16/2009 at 5:20 PM #

    wait – here’s the problem. Miami played very physical – the refs just chose to look the other way. FWIW – I was fine w/ them calling it that way because it was consistent.

    That said, when our squad steps on the court, I don’t expect the same level of contact being allowed by NC State’s defenders. OTOH, I can see them handchecking us to death like does.

    I think your point is a good one – we don’t want to give Hansborough and the rest of their team free points…I just think that Miami played a defense that we won’t – and possibly can’t play – last night.

  16. BSIE80 02/16/2009 at 5:28 PM #

    Obviously this will be a tough game. They are not unbeatable, and if we play the way we have played the last 2-3 games we have a chance of at least a good showing and possibly an upset.

    They just have so many weapons, it will be difficult to stop their offense. As mentioned, we must eliminate the easy layups/dunks and minimize the fouls.
    If they beat us, make it be from outside shots.

    Here’s hoping we can match them offensively…

  17. john of sparta 02/16/2009 at 5:30 PM #

    GAWolf…ACC tourney tix are cheap this year, along with
    airline tix, and hotels are giving it away.
    WTTY…..no fouls? Miami wuz home.
    TXPACK has the right idea. claim minority status
    and get a Stimulus Pack!

  18. wufpup76 02/16/2009 at 5:32 PM #

    “Wufpup… it’s 180 degrees, mang.”

    180, 360 – same difference! 🙂

  19. ppack3 02/16/2009 at 5:33 PM #

    I may be wrong about this, but I have been saying, for a long time, that Sid may just resemble coach V. Stay with me here. V was a tournament coach. We never had an outstanding record in the regular season with Jimmy V, did we? We finished in first place once (10-4 ACC). We finished tied for first once (at 9-6? ACC). And we finished 2nd in the ACC one year. We had to win the ACC Tournament in ’83 in order to go to the dance.
    Maybe we are seeing similar patterns with Sid. Granted, you have to make it to the tournament before you win anything, but we saw what happened in the ACC Tournament in his first year. And, we made a run of it in the NIT with a rag-tag bunch. Let’s not forget, we did win a tournament last year, in Orlando. It may not have been the NCAA’s, but if you watched those three games, Sid coached his head off, and there were some incredible endings. I don’t feel like I’m grasping at straws here. Jimmy V is who Sid learned from.
    I never subscribed to the notion that Sid doesn’t know what he’s doing. He may have NBA rule flashbacks periodically, and have to adjust to the coaching parameters, but let’s not forget the man’s heritage. Big games, are a big deal, unlike the previous regime. And we may get the crap beat out of us on Wednesday night, but it will not be for a lack of trying. Period.
    Off topic – At least BMFD is starting up the ‘ol Coaching Carousel. Three assistant coaches lost, in four days? That is continuity my friends. Stepping stones…Go Pack!

  20. Wait_Til_This_Year 02/16/2009 at 5:42 PM #

    Well I didn’t say it would be easy. Maybe we’ll get Jaimie “F*cking @sshole” Luckie as the ref, and he will feel so bad for giving VT the game against us that he’ll actually call this one fairly (optimism).

    And yeah, I realize that Miami were actually fouling TH. By the end of that game, he looked like he’d just spent the night in prison. His now legendary will was in fact broken. Priceless.

  21. BladenWolf 02/16/2009 at 6:26 PM #

    Agree wpackman33…

    One reason we lost in Raleigh was because we couldn’t get back on D in time for lawson to work the transition or set the O.

    Hazbro will get his, but we can stay in the game if we get back on D and stop the freight train before it starts…

    …f course that and ball control.

  22. Greywolf 02/16/2009 at 6:35 PM #

    I’ll be looking to see if we’re still progressing. No giant steps back. Let the holes know they been in a fight. I recall Big Ben taking Hobo to school in one of our early games under Sid. Love to see it again.

  23. BladenWolf 02/16/2009 at 6:36 PM #

    BJD95 = Walter Sobchak!!!! I love it. I absolutely love it!!!

    Walter Sobchak: “Dude, this is a league game, this determines who enters the next round robin. Am I wrong? Am I wrong?”

    The Dude: “Holy fuck man…”

    BJD95 – Remember that I’m not wrong, I’m just an asshole…

  24. Sw0rdf1sh 02/16/2009 at 8:31 PM #

    360 degrees! Ha ha that was a good one.

    Let’s hope the turnover machine is broken on Wednesday. We can pull this one out.

  25. redfred2 02/16/2009 at 8:50 PM #

    If the officials would just get a grip on Ty Lawson’s touchy feely, hands all over anybody and everybody within reach, I would be happy.

    I saw it in person when Lawson got by with it in the RBC, and then came and watched my recording of it. I was asked, “Isn’t putting your hands on the other player against the rules or something in BB?” So it was even obvious to one my daughter’s who is middle school, and who isn’t a big fan of BB or watching sports in general.

    If it’s that obvious to a twelve year old girl, I’d think that the ACC officiating crews might possibly have noticed it too. But, as per usual, they did not.

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