No Margin For Error: State vs. Maryland Pre-Game Thread

08-09 Basketball47

turtleThanks to Chop for neatly summarizing not only NC State’s in-game scenario, but also the rest of their season: the Wolfpack has no margin for error, and not only does each game rest on each four minute segment of their last few regular season contests, but each segment could also seal their post-season fate as well.  The team is out of free passes: a loss right now to teams that the Pack can and should beat would be devastating to their NIT hopes.

Good thing for the Wolfpack that Maryland has not played well away from the Comcast Center.  The Terps single road ACC win this season was 57-56 squeaker over DFL Georgia Tech on February 8th.  But make no mistake – this is a very tough game as Maryland is fighting for their NCAA-Tournament-lives sitting at 6-7 in the conference and 17-10 overall.

Additionally, the engine that drives the Terps – Greivis Vasquez – always plays particularly well against the Wolfpack. Vasquez presents match-up problems for everyone – particularly a Wolfpack team whose strong suit is not defense. If State matches-up man-to-man against the Terps the only hopes of containing Vasquez probably rest with Farnold Degand &/or Courtney Fells. With this said, we have to hope that Fells brings his “I am going to bust my ass” mindset as opposed to his “ho-hum, what is going on out here” attitude.

Despite the seemingly pessimistic view of Brett Friedlander in the ACC Insider, State has a solid chance of winning this home game and picking up at least one more conference win before heading to Atlanta in a couple of weeks.

Given N.C. State’s history, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Wolfpack can come out of nowhere, win the ACC Tournament and secure an automatic bid into the NCAA’s field of 65. More than likely, though, coach Sidney Lowe and his team are looking at the NIT as their most realistic postseason possibility.

For that to happen, it’s going to take at least one more win — which would guarantee State of an above .500 finish. The problem is, that win won’t come easily at home against a hungry Maryland team, at home against Boston College and on the road against a Miami squad that could be playing for its NCAA Tournament life before going to on to Atlanta.

Fair enough, but I expect State to pick up two more wins before the tournament and I think that they win in the ATM against the Terps.

NAME GM MIN PTS REB AST TO A/T STL BLK PF FG% FT% 3P% PPS
Greivis Vasquez 27 33.9 16.5 5.6 4.7 2.8 1.7/1 1.4 0.5 2.2 .401 .874 .325 1.16
Landon Milbourne 27 28.8 12.9 5.4 0.7 1.5 1/2.2 1.1 1.1 2.3 .521 .854 .313 1.33
Eric Hayes 27 29.3 9.7 3.0 3.3 1.9 1.7/1 1.2 0.2 1.1 .404 .848 .366 1.16
Adrian Bowie 27 24.9 9.7 3.2 2.6 2.0 1.3/1 1.2 0.3 1.9 .460 .710 .250 1.31
Dave Neal 27 22.5 7.5 4.1 0.8 0.7 1.2/1 0.7 0.1 1.7 .411 .784 .323 1.09
Cliff Tucker 26 12.4 5.2 1.7 1.0 0.8 1.4/1 0.8 0.3 1.0 .437 .792 .414 1.13
Sean Mosley 27 19.5 5.1 3.6 1.3 1.3 1/1 0.8 0.3 1.9 .364 .732 .222 1.08
Braxton Dupree 20 11.8 2.5 2.9 0.1 0.6 1/11 0.3 0.5 1.2 .350 .412 .000 0.82
Dino Gregory 27 15.0 2.4 2.9 0.2 0.8 1/3.5 0.4 1.0 2.5 .388 .522 .000 0.96
Jin-Soo Kim 20 6.7 1.7 1.2 0.0 0.6 – 0.3 0.3 0.9 .286 .714 .238 0.81
Jerome Burney 9 7.6 0.9 1.9 0.2 0.2 1/1 0.0 0.7 0.7 .267 .000 .000 0.53
Steve Goins 4 3.0 0.5 1.0 0.0 0.5 – 0.0 0.3 0.3 .000 .500 .000 2.00
David Pearman 9 1.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 – 0.0 0.0 0.1 .000 .000 .000 –
Team Averages 27 – 72.3 37.7 14.7 12.9 1.1/1 8.0 4.6 16.5 .420 .766 .320 1.15

In my mind, the key to the game is simple: shut down Vasquez and cut the head off of the turtle offense.

Share your pre-game thoughts below.

08-09 Basketball

47 Responses to No Margin For Error: State vs. Maryland Pre-Game Thread

  1. Alpha Wolf 02/28/2009 at 7:12 PM #

    Greywolf, I am honored by your compliments, seriously. They mean a lot.

    And I definitely see your and Burnbarn’s point about could win and should win. As a long time State fan, I should know better than to ever take anything for granted. Plus, BJD95’s indefatigable logic in his assessments this season also should add caution to my optimism.

  2. MrPlywood 02/28/2009 at 7:14 PM #

    Does it make me a bad person if I enjoy the recent losses of a certain Pac-10 team coached by a certain someone? Because I do…

    Now go win tomorrow Pack!

  3. redfred2 02/28/2009 at 7:42 PM #

    I did not see that Duke/VT game, but I am getting just about sick of even hearing about these IDIOTS who reward for SHITTY play by standing idly by with their fingers up their butts while crap like that continually happens right under their watchful eyes.

    They are RUINING the game and the people who are supposedly “in charge”, and who are put in place to protect the integrity of collegiate BB and amateur athletics, apparently don’t give a rat’s ass about anything that happens at the most important time, which is DURING A GAME.

    The trickle down factor for NOT holding ANYONE ACCOUNTABLE is blatently obvious there. The refs are blind and oblivious to the written rules while on the BB court, and the people who hire them to do that job are blind and oblivious to what the refs are/ARE NOT doing as well.

    Is it just me, is the NCAA still a functioning body, or is it the NBA that’s really making A-L-L of the determinations regarding the direction of college/amateur BB nowdays?

  4. txpack 02/28/2009 at 8:29 PM #

    MrPlywood, I am with you.

    Few days back, there are few posts talked so-called great Pac10 baskteball. I was ready to fire few words, but did not. I watched some of their games (I am in Texas, so the midnight game is not too bad for me). I would say the a top tier PAC10 team would win no more than 5 games in ACC. So none of them is better than us:)

  5. TheCOWDOG 02/28/2009 at 8:41 PM #

    txpack….remarkable timing. Just stated to my California wife, and kids ( all watching UCLA ) that we would beat UCLA on a nuetral court.

    Yet they’ll manage to get 5 in. Like we know life ain’t fair.

  6. BSIE80 02/28/2009 at 8:51 PM #

    I saw the Duke/VT end of game walk as well. The announcers did a good job of replaying this.

    I would think that the head of officials will discuss this with the refs. It really sucks, but this has been going on for years. Duke and UNC just get the breaks. The refs do it unconsciously i think. They are just so use to letting them get by with this stuff with no one holding them accountable.

    They really need to fine them for missing this in a close game like today. That would have been a huge call if they would have made it.

    I’m surprised VT coach- which I despise did not run out on the court and pitch a fit.

  7. BSIE80 02/28/2009 at 8:57 PM #

    As far as the Maryland game,
    I expect us to win this. This will put us in a tie for 8-9-10 with UMD/Miami.

    Students are out for break so the RBC will not be as friendly. Hopefully, this does not deter us from getting the job done.

    We have been playing well, but so has UMD. I’d like to see Fells & Costner finish off their careers by playing well this game and the remaining of the season.
    Costner is especially overdue.

  8. Wolfpack_1995 02/28/2009 at 9:29 PM #

    The key is Vasquez. Everything starts with him.

    Double team him or whatever just don’t let him get going. He torched the holes already.

    If we can get him frustrated along with Sweaty then we win the game.

  9. ncsufan23 02/28/2009 at 10:02 PM #

    On a completely unrelated note, I just witnessed the end of John Wall’s high school career and I was not impressed. He was outplayed by Ian Miller(Florida State commit) for most of the game and was obviously trying too hard. On a positive note for the future of NC State, CJ Leslie did have about 20 points and alot of blocks. If Sidney Lowe doesn’t pull off a miracle and sign John Wall, I will not be that disappointed.

  10. highstick 02/28/2009 at 10:28 PM #

    I saw one clip just a while ago of Hansborough “going to the basket”. At least 6 steps and never dribbled once! It’s an absolute disgrace to give him any accolades or records!

    BTW, thanks for the Firefox tips guys! So far, I like it!

  11. redfred2 02/28/2009 at 11:05 PM #

    Pup, about the movie, and the hint, it was “Dog Hotel”.

  12. redfred2 03/01/2009 at 12:03 AM #

    This not something that I wouldn’t normally comment on at this particular point in time, BUT!!!, and since some others have already BROACHED!!!, I’m seeing a red sky…and the sun peacefully dimming on the horizon…somewhere out in the wide expanses of the lonesome desert. It’s the type of panorama that makes one want to climb into bed and fall fast asleep, aided by the light of a TV which is tuned to the first two or three minutes of a highly competitive PAC-10 basketball game. ZZZzzzz…ZZZzzz…Sleeep America…just go to sleeeep

    Just another silly thought, don’t read more into it then was originally intended. 😉

  13. wufpup76 03/01/2009 at 12:22 AM #

    ^All you guys are right about the Pac 10. There are some decent teams, but I would have a hard time seeing any of those teams in the top 3 of the ACC. I did see some of the Washington / Arizona game today, and the Huskies are clearly the class of that league.

    I know UCLA won at Cal tonight, but they should not be ranked in the top 20. There’s nothing on their resume that suggests they should other than the fact that their name is “UCLA” and they went to the Final 4 LAST YEAR.

    But the real travesty to me is the fact that this year’s edition of the SEC will have more than 1 or 2 teams in the NCAA field. Five teams potentially being in from that conference is an abomination. The Mountain West should get five teams in before the SEC – seriously. Mountain West teams are easily superior to SEC teams this season. If Kentucky gets in over ANYBODY from the ACC there should be some kind of revolt.

    Anyway, I digress … Let’s go Pack! Time to give Maryland a tough loss for a change.

  14. Greywolf 03/01/2009 at 12:54 AM #

    Alpha, You earned the props.
    While could is an excellent substitute for should, I think the word that describes your feelings about the Md. game is EXPECT. We COULD win them all, but we only EXPECT to win 8. And I do believe that we SHOULD win more than we do. 😉

    Some would say it’s all linguistics and we, you, burn and myself, are saying the same thing. My thought is that distinguishing should, could, and expect give us a preciseness in our speaking. By distinguishing those three, you could say that we are being cunning linguists. But you and burn will have to speak for yourselves. (Sorry, I just couldn’t help it on this last paragraph.)

  15. Rochester 03/01/2009 at 7:43 AM #

    I had a dream Friday night that we beat Maryland by 20 points. Then really good stuff happened to me on Saturday. I’m not claiming to be a visionary, but I feel pretty good about our chances tonight.

    Maryland has had some pitiful games on the road this season. They lost by 29 at Clemson, by 17 at UNC and by 41 at Duke. That’s not the mark of a confident road squad. (To put 41 points in perspective, a highly ranked Pac 10 team scored 49 in an overtime game yesterday. That must be a lot of points.)

    Their wins in ACC play: Ga Tech, Virginia, Miami, Ga Tech (only road win), Va Tech, UNC. Aside from a one-game adrenaline rush against the Holes, how is that any better than what we’ve done? We will beat them today. Mark it down.

  16. Rochester 03/01/2009 at 7:50 AM #

    In Maryland’s six road games, Greivis Vasquez is averaging 3 rebounds, 3 assists and 11.5 points. Not quite the monster he was against UNC. He can be contained, and it won’t require a superhuman effort to do it.

  17. Wulfpack 03/01/2009 at 8:58 AM #

    ncsuman, a couple of friends of mine went to see Wall as well and they weren’t impressed, fwiw.

    “But the real travesty to me is the fact that this year’s edition of the SEC will have more than 1 or 2 teams in the NCAA field. Five teams potentially being in from that conference is an abomination.”

    I totally agree. The Pac 10 does have some decent teams and will get 5 or 6 bids depending on Arizona finishes, whereas the SEC is a total joke.

    In regards to the Duke/VT game, yes, the refs missed the traveling call. However, he was getting absolutely mugged and they didn’t call that either, forcing Duke to call a TO. It works both ways. But I agree, SOMETHING needed to be called there, don’t just stand there watching.

    VT had some mental lapses down the stretch that really cost them. Paulus got free for a wide open lay-up and they let Singler drive in from about 25 feet away untouched — that can’t happen. It was VT’s defense that lost this game for them and now I think it’s safe to say they are on the outside looking in with Miami while Maryland gets the nod. We’ll see what happens in this next week, but I don’t like the Hokies’ chances with some tough games ahead.

  18. wufpup76 03/01/2009 at 9:02 AM #

    ^It would be awesome if we could damage Maryland’s hopes tonight.

    About VT, a lot of the talking heads still have them in good position – but that loss yesterday was a fairly big missed opportunity. I’m not convinced they’re in ok shape given that they have losses to GEORGIA and SETON HALL on record. Those are the real stingers that just keep on giving.

    Go Pack

  19. Wulfpack 03/01/2009 at 10:04 AM #

    ^And the key for me is they close with UNC and at FSU. If they lose both, which is likely, you’re looking at a Hokie team that closed the year with a 1-6 record…not good! Seth may have to consult the medical journals to come up with something better than “certifiably insane”.

  20. redfred2 03/01/2009 at 10:26 AM #

    Whoops

  21. b 03/01/2009 at 4:17 PM #

    Game one of a three game bubble pop parade. If we can’t go, let’s take them out with us!!!

  22. wufpup76 03/01/2009 at 5:59 PM #

    See you guys at the game (ok, not really … but maybe).

    Go pack

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