It’s National Signing Day

bikini

Quote of the night from last night’s Wolfpack coaches’ comments on our recruiting class: “stars are like a bikini…they show a lot, but not everything.” Indeed.  Our coaching staff seems quite satisfied with our incoming class, and given their experience and history of taking players that are less-heralded and turning them in to solid football players, Wolfpack fans should be satisfied as well.

Some folks think of today as college football’s version of Christmas — National Letters of Intent are flowing into programs across the country as prep players make their commitments to the colleges where they will play their college football.  As of the time of this writing, NC State has received 26 NLIs from prospective players.

For more information regarding what a NLI implies, read here (pdf format)  Other interesting reading is the NCAA Eligibility Center’s website, located here.  Finally, the text of an NLI can be found here.

If you look at the “stars” that determine rankings of classes, State’s is relatively undistinguished: Rivals.com ranked it at #52, with zero five-star, two four-star, nineteen three-star and seven two-star athletes expected to come into the program.  Make no mistake, however, these rankings are only a little better than a guessing game and not necessarily a solid predictor of future success. Add to it the fact that NC State Head Coach Tom O’Brien and his staff have a solid reputation of taking under-rated classes and turning them into solid performers and many of his former players now play football for a living.  Mike Farrell or Rivals.com gives the class tepid marks, but he has to admit something that anyone who knows Tom O’Brien’s career knows: that he is a superb talent evaluator and that he recruits players into his system that are often overlooked by other coaches:

“I think State will be a little disappointed in being ranked behind Duke, but Tom O’Brien has a history of finding overachievers and players who are better than other people thought. On the surface, this doesn’t look like the best class. But I imagine this class has plenty of surprises. The State staff knows more than we know.”

Probably the best place to follow the action is Pack Pride.com or The Wolfpacker.com, the Scout and Rivals sites (respectively) devote to Wolfpack sports.

Some recruiting and signing day articles for you:

ACCsports.com: NC State Signing Day Snapshot

850 The Buzz National Signing Day interviews

Football Recruiting General Tom O'Brien

72 Responses to It’s National Signing Day

  1. ncsslim 02/04/2009 at 4:54 PM #

    95, I’m sorry, but the talent Mack was developing in the mid 90’s still populates the NFL. That simply did not exist in the Sheridan years. Speculation or not, there is one reason and one reason at all that Mack did not win multiple titles, and that was the inclusion of FSU in the league at a time that they were the most dominant program in the country. Should Mack have won some of those matchups? Absolutely, but as I said earlier, Dick got out at the right time if he was looking to continue his dominance over that program for the short term future (although I’m not remotely equating a Dick Sheridan coached team with an O’Cain team).

  2. Noah 02/04/2009 at 5:09 PM #

    Mack Brown is an excellent recruiter, but a poor gameday coach.

    He’s still got one more national title than most coaches do.

    The biggest thing Sheridan had going for him as far as recruiting went was talent evaluation. He had a number of coaches who were absolutely superb at finding diamonds in the rough.

    Billy Ray Haynes, Sebastian Savage, Snake Vinson, etc. It seems like every year, we’d find these guys who were waaaay better than anyone previously thought.

    When Sheridan left, Buddy Green (his best recruiter) left a year later. Gradually, that staff fell apart and so did O’Cain’s recruiting. He still had Robbie Caldwell to the end. And Caldwell was one of the better people at finding talent.

    No one was really recruiting Chris Colmer. Caldwell found him. Right before he left, Caldwell found two kids in upstate New York. They both went to Syracuse after O’Cain was fired and one of them played in the NFL. Neither was very highly regarded as a recruit.

  3. 1.21 Jigawatts 02/04/2009 at 5:09 PM #

    Interesting development of the team for State. According to the N&O Geron James will transfer while Beck and Clemmons are graduating and not returning.

    Also, Bowens needs knee surgery and no word on if he’ll be ready for the beginning of the season.

  4. Dr. BadgerPack 02/04/2009 at 5:33 PM #

    “Not sure the exact reason people can’t project how well a player will do from high school to college, but the rankings seem to be an inexact “science”.”

    Well… the nuts and bolts is it’s difficult to project the difference between a kid at 17/18 and that same individual at 19/20. Look at college entrance in general; not all of the valedictorians with 1400+ (using the earlier scale) SAT scores sit at the top of their college class. That’s only the mental– academic, to be specific– side. Athletic recruiters have to project physical maturity as well. Throw in a side order of social adaptation and a dash of character and… presto! Inexact science.

    That’s actually why O’Brien’s strong consideration of character is a big help to him. One variable is taken out of the equation, or at least has a very small coefficient. Plus, it correlates to the work ethic needed to develop physical ability, learn the playbook, etc. For the most part, this is also the Grobe strategy. A few “shady” individuals will always slip through the cracks, but you can see with all of the variables in play how it can be very difficult to recruit college athletes out of high school.

    And that “analysis” of mine doesn’t even take into account injuries, family situations… you name it, that can alter any one, or several, of the key indicators mentioned above. As for the basketball/football– SOME of the physical development is taken out of the equation, as there is reduced direct contact. It still is a very inexact science, but physically mature 17/18 year olds like a Kevin Durant, Greg “I look 50” Oden, etc. basically show you exactly how they will translate.

  5. PackBacker001 02/04/2009 at 5:34 PM #

    My concern is that I just don’t see a way that Russell Wilson can be as efficient as he was last year. It bordered on unbelievable. I’m worried that teams will focus on containing the pocket and daring him to throw. If they have good man coverage, Russell won’t throw a pick…but he won’t complete much, either.

    At any rate, he’s a smart player…but a season like that might just come once in a lifetime. Our expectations might be too high.

  6. com state10 02/04/2009 at 5:39 PM #

    I think it is pretty safe to say, that with Butch at UNC, signing day will never be as pretty for us as people may wish. But as people have mentioned time and time again, TOB has never been a flashy recruiter that I can remember. I will take the program and player development I have seen in the past two years over a flashy signing day that nobody remembers by two a days any day.

    I think TOB’s reputation precedes him and has earned our trust. I agree with those of you who say I would like to see a better NC class next year, but the guy is moving us closer to a championship at a pace faster than I expected. I’ll take losing every signing day, if we continue to move quickly towards to ACC, and BCS Champtionship games, while defeating UNC along the way every year.

    GO TOB!!!

  7. Wolf Dog 02/04/2009 at 6:08 PM #

    McPete “Butch has done it year in and year out.”

    Not true. Butch didn’t have a highly recruiting class last year. Miami and FSU had stellar classes. In fact Athlon and others had our class rated higher than UNC’s last year and they had Butch’s class ranked in the second half of the ACC. Not a top 25 class according to them.

    As far as Sheridan and Brown, would have been nice to have seen them play more often. Brown was improving his teams but so was Sheridan. MOC did well his first 2 years with Sheridan recruits and was even being mentioned by several publications as one of the great up and coming coaches in America. I think both coaches would readily admit that neither was close to FSU at the time. But MOC did beat FSU back them and I’ll never forgot Bobby Bowden saying, “Dadgum O’Cain got me!” I was so happy for O’Cain after that ~70 point lose at FSU he had suffered which I happened to be at that game. I was so glad him and the team got it back!

    Lot of factors went into MOC, UNC, and recruiting. UNC upgraded thier facilties to attrack recruits while we were killing our athletics department after V’s firing. Then our defense went south after the bulk of our interior defense got kicked off the team after the shooting incident. That incident put us in a team/recruiting hole on defense for years.

    Sheridan and MOC were very honest about our program, They both clearly stated the program was not going to improve until an aging Carter Finley and other facilities were upgraded. MOC teams didn’t have problems with penalties, in fact we one of the least penealized teams in the ACC. I do agree we had a problem with untimely delay of game penalties at times under MOC. I can still picture Jamie Barnette begging for the play.

  8. W0LFPack 02/04/2009 at 6:22 PM #

    I’ve read most of the comments and agree with most. TOB is building a program, and it appears to me that’s he’s going out and getting quality players at the positions we need them. He didn’t go out and get 5 WRs, because we don’t need them right now. He got linemen. If you have a collegiate running back (any amount of stars 1-5), and above average quarterback (which we appear to be set for at least 2 more years) and an amazing offensive line then your offense should be great. You give most kids enough time to throw and be comfortable, they’ll succeed.

    Butch’s math is pretty hysterical, but we’ll see how it all pans out. Let’s just focus on us for now, however.

    Mostly the reason you can’t tell how good a high school player will be in college is because you have no idea how they’ll adjust. Most kids are the best player on their team, so they don’t have to work hard. The high school work out regime compared to the college work out/diet regime is a joke. Most of these kids probably put on 30 pounds when they get here. That’s why TOB likes to redshirt them. Let them get even bigger, more acquainted than that. These linemen should be good for us. Basketball is different. You can go out of state and play against better competition, you have AAU, strength/diet don’t matter. It’s much less important to play as a team in basketball. If you have one GREAT player then you can be good. If you have one GREAT player in football, then good luck. That being said, they also have to know how to play the team game, which TOB appears to look for in a player.

    Plus some coaches just go recruit players with stars beside their name, it appears TOB and Co recruit guys who know the game of football, are athletic and fit under his system. I know of a couple of guys who are coming in here for this class that aren’t playing the same position they played in high school, and they already know that.

    It’ll be interesting to see how it all works out. I think TOB is in the process of getting us to the top. It should be fun.

  9. BSIE80 02/04/2009 at 6:27 PM #

    I think our overall class is well below what we should expect out of the coaching staff/program.
    In short it sucks.

    We finished 6-7 last year and only did this well because Russell Wilson steped up (non TOB recruit). If he didn’t, we would have won maybe 4 games and not went to a bowl.

    Although, I believe last year’s class was ok, and I expect us to win 8-9 games this year, assuming R. Wilson continues to play at the same level. This recruiting class will not help us down the road.
    I want us to win national championships, nothing less. We won’t get it done when we get out recruited by Duke, UNC, etc.

    Why is everyone so satisfied?

  10. BSIE80 02/04/2009 at 6:33 PM #

    These are the teams that have a shot at winning championships:

    1 Alabama 27 4 14 9 3.81 2,786
    2 LSU 25 5 11 9 3.84 2,762
    3 USC 20 4 12 2 3.90 2,554
    4 Ohio State 25 2 15 8 3.76 2,478
    5 Texas 20 3 11 6 3.85 2,375
    6 Florida State 21 2 10 8 3.62 2,154
    7 Michigan 22 1 13 6 3.59 2,124
    8 North Carolina 29 1 13 10 3.34 2,084
    9 Georgia 18 1 13 4 3.83 2,053
    10 Florida 16 3 9 4 3.94 2,017
    11 Miami 20 2 9 8 3.60 1,968
    12 South Carolina 29 0 14 11 3.34 1,952
    13 Oklahoma 23 0 11 11 3.43 1,830
    14 Arkansas 30 1 8 20 3.30 1,689
    15 Michigan State 23 0 10 10 3.30 1,675
    16 UCLA 26 0 10 14 3.31 1,636
    17 Ole Miss 37 1 8 22 3.11 1,628
    18 Auburn 28 0 9 16 3.21 1,599
    19 Stanford 22 0 8 12 3.27 1,583
    20 Notre Dame 17 1 9 4 3.47 1,508
    21 Texas A&M 28 1 4 21 3.14 1,403
    22 Mississippi State 27 0 7 17 3.15 1,395
    23 Tennessee 18 0 8 10 3.44 1,387
    24 Virginia Tech 22 0 5 14 3.09 1,357
    25 Penn State 27 0 7 12 2.96 1,335

    I don’t see NCSU on the list….

  11. Dr. BadgerPack 02/04/2009 at 6:37 PM #

    ^That has to be one of the best parodies I’ve read in a bit. I hope. 🙂

  12. W0LFPack 02/04/2009 at 6:40 PM #

    BSIE80…I feel as though you’re always some critical of everything. Maybe I’m wrong. But seriously, do you know the game of football??

    FSU has top recruits every year. When’s the last time they went to a BCS?? Virgina Tech never has a top 25 recruiting class and they dominate the ACC right now.

    BC never had a top 25 recruiting class and Matt Ryan was a 3 star prospect, on the other hand Marcus Stone was a 4 star prospect. Philip Rivers was a 4 star prospect and FSU recruited him to play TE because they were set with their 5 star prospect Chris Rix. More BC examples are their entire defense this year (at least 7 will be in the NFL, and only one of them was rated a 4 *, the rest were all 3 star and 2 stars). Nate Irving, our best defensive player was a 2 star, and Mr. Russel Wilson himself was a 2*, but Harrison Beck was a 4 star.

    No one knows how this will turn out for us. It could bite us in the ASS. The point is, TOB wins games with the same type of recruits. He seems to know who fits with his game plan, and he knows what he wants, and gets it. It’s not about what star they are, it’s about do they fit, and we’re hoping he continues his trend, and they do.

    ***
    SPEAKING of Harrison Beck, he and Geron James transferred out of the program today.
    ***

  13. Wolf Dog 02/04/2009 at 6:41 PM #

    Here’s what recruiting rankings mean. 04-08 we averaged a class ranked 37. Were we 37th best team last year? 04-08 UNC averaged 31 ranking. Were they 31st best team in country? Va Teach averaged 27 and was a BCS team.

  14. BSIE80 02/04/2009 at 7:28 PM #

    I agree, football is not as much of a science as other sports.
    Note, VT is in the top 25 this year.

    The top 10, with the exception of UNC are the top tier teams.
    This is scary, because UNC is in the list now. One year may not mean much!

    Nebraska is not on the list. They use to be, when they had top teams.
    So I think it means something. My old boss (diehard Nebraska fan) tells me about it every year.

    Yes, there are a lot of examples of 2 or 3 stars panning out to be NFL players or great college players. Also, there are a lot of 4 and 5 star players that end up sucking.
    However, I would bet that there are more 4 and 5 star players that turn out to be great players as compared to the 2 and 3 players. I don’t have the stats, but just look at the teams on the list. They will be the ones competing for conference and national championships, guaranteed….

  15. BJD95 02/04/2009 at 7:30 PM #

    Tom O’Brien has a track record. His likely “floor” (similar W/L record to BC) would make him the best football coach in NC State history.

    Let’s cut out the bullshit false analogies and hand-wringing. A basketball player is much closer to physical maturity for his sport in high school than a football player is. Thus, easier to project.

  16. beowolf 02/04/2009 at 7:37 PM #

    “I hate to do this Alpha but what is “Curry Math”…I know that I should probably know but well…I don’t!”

    If I remember correctly it stems from Ronald Curry making a quote about how if such and such had happened UNC would be undefeated. He had essentially said they won all of their games despite the score.

    Curry Math originated Philip Rivers’ first year, first game. Rivers, if you’ll recall, threw for over 400 yards, and State fans were blown away. Curry threw for 200. UNC fans couldn’t deal with Pack fans being happy about something, so some of them started to say that Curry would have thrown for 400 if he had had more pass attempts. On the “heels” of this jealous tarheel fans’ Curry stat-norming came Curry’s comments, and the phenomenon had a name.

  17. Pack1997 02/04/2009 at 7:54 PM #

    BSIE80 , don’t be so down. It is signing day and we recruited need. I am sure we could have gone out and obtained some WR, RBs that would have helped our class ranking, however those are not immediate need. We need depth on offensive and defensive lines. We needed to replenish our secondary. We did those things today. Amato use to bring in big classes and where did that leave him?

    If you have been on this site you know that just because a recruit signs with you means nothing. That player may or may not be there next year. Or may not academically qualify and then have to go to a military academy. He would then count towards next years class as well thus boosting your classes rankings. I believe TOB knows what he is doing. He is a proven winner, who genuinely cares about his players. What more can we ask for out of our program? The Championship will eventually come. That cannot be said in any other sport for us.

  18. buttPACKer 02/04/2009 at 8:01 PM #

    The football program is the ONE athletic program at State that I can go to sleep at night KNOWING it is in very good hands… We got what we needed today. TOB is building the base now. The “stars” don’t do very well without a strong–and deep–base, BSIE80. (see Chuck Amato)

  19. BSIE80 02/04/2009 at 8:05 PM #

    Just sort of kidding. I like both Sid and TOB and will support these guys till i die…

  20. Pack1997 02/04/2009 at 8:16 PM #

    11-14 and 7-9 with half the talent and or bodies of any other program. TOB is light years ahead of Sid. We made the post season in football, no matter what the name of the bowl was. We will be lucky to make the post season in Bball. It is clear you are not sold on TOB. Have your doubts, collect talent only takes you so far, which is why Butch never won a NC.

    Football is not BB, one player can make a team in BB. It takes a collective unit in football. TOB will win an ACC championship before he retires.

  21. buttPACKer 02/04/2009 at 8:27 PM #

    BSIE80,

    i can’t tell if you’re being sarcastic, or not. . .

  22. BJD95 02/04/2009 at 8:27 PM #

    We get the point, BSIE. We just don’t agree. Quit cluttering up this thread with repetitive nonsense.

  23. packalum44 02/04/2009 at 9:12 PM #

    The ACC has had more NFL draft picks than any other conference in the last several years. However, we are nowhere near as good as the SEC.

    I think we have a great class. Recruiting gets better after we win games and keep punching Carolina in the mouth. We will at least go to the ACC championship either this year or next. In 3-4 years, we will regularly have top 10 recruiting classes and be a team to be reckoned with on the national scene.

  24. turfpack 02/04/2009 at 9:45 PM #

    WOLFPACK-your summary of high school kids adjustments to college is exactly right. As a coach I had players with great athletic ability but not true football talent-also the adjustment to college life and the speed of the game is what causes a most high school players to be left behind in college.I like the fact that TOB doesn’t want any
    premadonna’s on his TEAM .Athletic,Football talent,good character,and a TEAM player will win alot of championships as I have found out over the years.
    As a old coach told me one time “Stars =I ain’t making a movie,I’m building a championship team-bring me real football players”
    You don’t really know if he can truely play the game or not until he gets hit in the mouth HARD and gets back up-that’s the college game.

  25. BSIE80 02/04/2009 at 10:08 PM #

    packalum44- sounds good, but your wrong…

    Think the best football is played in the Southeastern Conference? The SEC, now 12 teams strong, leads all conferences with 754 players drafted. The Big Ten and Pac-10 are second at 649.

    http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/2008-04-21-draft-database-cover_N.htm

    The NFL draws talent from 628 NCAA schools at the Division I, II and III levels, plus NAIA and junior colleges. However, just 31 NCAA Division I schools generated nearly 50% of the 5,395 draftees.

    Despite what might be considered down years recently for traditional powers Penn State, Florida State, Notre Dame and Miami, there is no significant drop off in the number of draft picks from those schools.

    Miami, Va Tech, and Florida State are the only ACC schools mentioned with any significant draft picks. Guess what, 2 of the 3 are in the top 25 this year.

    Just some facts.

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