Computer Rankings and Post-season Discussion

08-09 Basketball General Rankings & Lists58

I don’t have the time to offer much analysis in this entry (that is best left to Vawolf82), but with five games left in the season now is a good time to see where NC State stands in the various computer rankings and how that projects for post-season play. There are four post-season tournaments now:

-NCAA Tournament (65 teams)
-NIT (32 teams)
-College Basketball Invitational (16 teams)
–College Insider.com tournament (16 teams)

Prior to last year, any major conference team with a .500 record was almost guaranteed to make the NIT. However, the NIT changed their selection process to be more similar to the NCAA tournament selection process. Any team that wins their conference regular season and doesn’t make the NCAA is guaranteed a spot in the NIT field. For the remaining at-large spots, they use the various computer rankings, strength of schedule, etc…and award bids based on which teams are the most deserving. Considering the coaches are trying to land as many as two more 2009 recruits that are immediate impact players, then winning does nothing but improve our chances even if that means making a run in a tournament no NC State fan enjoys discussing.

Last week was the first time we appeared in this NIT field projection as a #8 seed. They have us matched up against #1 seed on the road at South Carolina. A #8 seed creates a rather daunting task of needing three wins on the road to advance to the semi-finals held in NYC.

Current computer rankings:

–Sagarin: #72
–Kenpom: #69
–RPI: 88

Remaining games:
UVA
@Wake Forest
Maryland
BC
@Miami

Obviously, our chances of making the NCAA tournament are slim at best. It probably takes a 4-1 finish plus two wins in the ACC tournament to give us a good chance (20-12, 10-9 against the ACC with wins over WF in the regular season and likely UNC, Duke or Wake in the Friday ACC game). A 3-2 record and two wins likely puts us on the bubble as does 4-1 and a single win in the ACC Tournament. Just think how getting a single win over over Davidson, Florida, or Marquette and the win over Virginia Tech would have changed our NCAA outlook?

Regardless, winning 4 or 5 games the rest of the way is crucial to position ourselves in the NIT field with a good chance of advancing to NYC. A strong finish and a couple of wins in the NIT would make this season a success in my opinion.

08-09 Basketball General Rankings & Lists

58 Responses to Computer Rankings and Post-season Discussion

  1. choppack1 02/19/2009 at 9:24 PM #

    “this season looks like it’s headed in the direction of being a copy of two years ago. looking like a ncaa tourney team in late february/early march, but crapped the bed too many times in jan/mid feb due to poor guard play for it to matter.”

    Actually, in the second half of 2007 we went 2-6 in the second half of the ACC season, (after starting off at a surprising 3-5.) If we crapped in the bed, this was the part of the season that we’ve done so thus far under Sid where before this season, we he was a combined 2-14 his first 2 years (compared to a respectable 7-9 in the first half of the season.) So, I’m very happy w/ a 2-1 in start we’ve had thus far.

    As far as comparison’s – I think the Pappa John’s bowl is roughly comparable to an NIT bid. However, I think we’ll have to go 7-9 in conference for it to compare to the football season – where we finished 4-4 and won 3 game in a row vs. bowl teams to get to the postseason ourselves.

  2. Greywolf 02/19/2009 at 10:12 PM #

    Don’t bother checking back but Gwolf didn’t say it was good for the development of the younger players. The tournament exposure and experience is good for the team and school and in a lessor way, recruiting. When a prospect visits and asks, “What did you do during the post season?” Our guys won’t have to tell him, “I shoveled shit at the dairy farm.”

    LRM,
    It’s LIKELY that the rotations aren’t going to change but the players will determine by how they practice whether or not the rotations change. It has got to be good for morale. If a player gets his ass whipped in practice and gives up PT, he knows it. It’s not arbitrary. Practice is where Javi earned his time and got the chance to show us the stuff we are so enthusiastic about.
    Sid’s use of role players reminds me of Everett Case.

  3. Wulfpack 02/19/2009 at 10:15 PM #

    I see the comparison of the NIT to the Papa John’s Bowl, but I do not see a lot of similarities between the two programs. I think for good measure we know what we are going to get with the football program next year. But next year is going to be a real msytery for the basketball program as we are losing our key guys, but bringing in some real gems. It could go either way, but very rarely does a crop of freshmen come in and rule the ACC without some learning experiences along the way. Our frontcourt is going to be a real issue, I will tell you that.

  4. 61Packer 02/19/2009 at 10:56 PM #

    There’s nothing about Sidney Lowe that reminds me of Everett Case.

  5. Wolf Dog 02/20/2009 at 7:43 AM #

    We most probably headed to NIT. I like the progress we are making and the way our underclassmen are stepping up. Javi, Smith, and Williams played well at UNC. We will not miss McCauley as much nx year with Smith playing so well. I like Ben but he had a horrible game against UNX, his limitations were greatly exposed. I’d like to see us continue to develop players for next year. With improved pg play, a great class coming in, Smith becoming a ACC first teamer, and if Costner returns. We should be a top half ACC team.

  6. Greywolf 02/20/2009 at 9:44 AM #

    “There’s nothing about Sidney Lowe that reminds me of Everett Case.”

    Perhaps what I should have said was I thought about the way Coach Case used Ronnie Scheffel, truly an end-of-bench reserve, when Case went to the full court press. Sid does some similar substituting with some of his reserves.

    My basketball analyzing ability was almost as non-existent in the days of Everett Case as it is now, so any further comparisons would be futile attempts to find something just to make a point. I was only 12 or 13 when the first Dixie Classic happened. My parents had gave me a tournament book of tickets for Christmas and my seat was so high in Section 3 in the north end that the players looked almost like ants running around. Later while in HS selling cokes in Reynolds I didn’t see much basketball but did manage to watch more than I should have. DAmn, Cokes from glass bottles poured over ice in a waxed cup — I doubt most people on this list ever drank one of those.

  7. Wolf Dog 02/20/2009 at 11:07 AM #

    Had to sneak in a little bourbon to put in that coke. Made the wax floating in the drink taste better. Ha!

    Coke and pepsi still taste better in the bottle to me. And you know you a NC country boy if you ever poured peanuts in your coke, pepsi, RC, or Double Cola bottle! That’s some good stuff!

  8. hball57 02/22/2009 at 7:16 PM #

    So what if we win out in teh Regular season? 19-10, 9-7 and add to that a first round win in the ACCT. Is that NCAA-bound?

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